Pmax2020
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Posts posted by Pmax2020
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What’s happened to reform?
Looks like the scourge of “Vote reform” muppets on social media are very few in numbers.
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41 minutes ago, Stewy said:
Things will get moving when interest rates start falling and we get price discovery. At the moment noone believes rates are going to stay as high as they are, so are in no rush to sell while the market is dormant.
Er… literally every single person I’ve spoken to about rates - friends, family, and colleagues - all say exactly the same thing. That these rates are normal by historic standards, and are here to stay.
The lowest I’ve heard anyone speculate rates could fall to over the next 2-3 years is 3%. Most reckon 4% over that sort of time frame.
Not sure your argument of people holding off holds water. Unless you mean holding off for the remainder of the decade 🤷♂️
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16 hours ago, Stewy said:
It is only since the Plateau has been proven that the sophist trolls here have started looking for other indices - eg so-called "real" house prices.
What is real is the House Price Plateau. No crash.
While I don’t think we are seeing falls, real or nominal, that could be classed as a ‘crash, I equally think your position lacks credibility.
Right now in my town there are 3 properties listed in a desirable street near a nice park, two of which have been on the market for 3-6 months. They are pitched at prices comparable to early 2020 prices if you ask me.
No takers though, and with three of them sitting there, I wonder who’s going to take the hit first?
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13 hours ago, nero120 said:
They've also fallen in nominal terms. Just because guff-infested VI "house price" reports with bespoke modelling and seasonal adjustments, etc, etc aren't reporting it doesn't take away from the observable fact that supply is massively outweighing demand. In any market, when this happens PRICES FALL!! It's hardly rocket science!
And also, just because idiot sellers stubbornly refuse to drop their asking price to find the clearing price for their property, doesn't change how markets function. Put simply, if you had to sell your property tomorrow and no buyer is willing to offer what you originally paid for it, THEN THE "VALUE" OF YOUR PROPERTY HAS FALLEN! Pretending otherwise by marketing at a far higher price (where there are no buyers) changes nothing.
I also believe they’ve fallen in nominal terms, but as an average across all property types I don’t think it’s going to be much more than a 4 or 5% fall. Purely because wages are rising so strongly.
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11 hours ago, Stewy said:
Still totally Plateaud.
That’s wholly untrue. More importantly, we know you know it’s untrue.
Goods, services, and wages have risen at least 10-15% over the last 2 years…. and yet during that period the house price index has remained static.
Are you going to continue to call it a plateau if the nationwide report the same 260k figure throughout this year? Or into next year and beyond?
Just admit you’re gutted prices haven’t kept up with inflation. They’ve irrefutably fallen.
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2 hours ago, Nick Cash said:
I got bored watching them grub around in the germ infested soft play areas. Took them “rock climbing” instead. Win win. They loved being outside and provided I chose simple climbs (very very easy scrambling) there was no danger. Moved on to graded scrambling when they were 8 / 9.
Weekend trips to softplays served their purpose. It was an easy number. Thankfully they are both now a bit old for it so we rarely go.
Swimming lessons, trips to the park, and their activity classes these days.
On the £5 coffee, I think you’d be insane to be paying that everyday but as an occasional treat I don’t think it’s a big deal.
Have any of guys got the app “TooGoodToGo”?… thank me later…
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Occasionally we end up paying £4.00 / £4.50 as parents when we are out with the kids.
Quite often you get caught out with these sorts of mad prices but I guess it’s just a bit of a parent tax. Having said that, as parents you end up paying to ‘spectate’ your kids at soft play these days.
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I really how you’re right but I’m losing faith.
Folk in their early 20s are joining my company and earning double what I did at their age, which was not too long ago!! That’s decent buying power in Scotland where smaller flats and houses are a fraction of average UK prices.
I really hope the normalisation of 35-40 year mortgages doesn’t off-set a fall in property prices too.
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2 hours ago, spyguy said:
In the simplest terms, and this has been posted a lot, prob inc everyone on this thread. but its worth reposting.
People buying house tend to borrow right up to their affordability limits i..e 30% of household income.
200k @ 2% is 850/m
Change rates to 6% and that 850/m will only get you 130k.
TLDR; moving from sub 2% to ~6%-8% will take 30% to 40% off prices.
Except we’re not seeing this yet. I agree with others that prices haven’t - they’ve flatlined. I think 3 years of 7% annual wage rises are doing a lot to counter 5% interest rates.
The other critical part of the equation is mortgage term. Friends of ours took a big mortgage till they were 70.
5-10 years ago this was unheard of within my friend group/ social circle: in fact many of us had terms that ran till 57 or 58. Next thing I knew, friends were pushing the term back to 65, then 68 and then 70.
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1 hour ago, sell2rent said:
Sounds like a bit of FOMO. Maybe a reality of MO if others are losing their heads in this market, but you'll have to decide if others are losing their heads and whether you want to overpay.
FWIW, we listed at offers over HR value, dropped the price after 4 weeks by £35K, then 3 weeks later sold for HR value.
Not getting the deal doesn't mean you should have offered more. Your wife and parents sound wise.
I think part of the problem is I’ve analysed sold prices for over 15 years. I have a ‘rain man’ like knowledge of most towns and cities in across central Scotland. I don’t want to get ripped off, but I’m starting to realise I’ve missed the boat several times. Prices will only go up over time.
I like period properties. Dont judge me. So when one comes up in a particular town/street, I can almost immediately recall what else sold, and when, and what condition it was in. I perhaps need to back my judgement more and bid more boldly.
Im in a good position financially and my kids are growing up in a great home. But I do fundamentally feel the pressure of passing time.I have a construction background and I’ve done up a few properties before. Everything apart from heating. I do feel if I’d of been less risk averse then I could sitting in an incredible home right now.
I know it’s a first world problem. Good house versus great. I just feel I’ve missed the boat…
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Yep, as soon as this particular house was listed I was desperately trying to explain to my wife that she needed to ignore the HRV.
On the closing date, our conveyancer suggested upping our offer, which we did! I wanted to go another 10-20k, which might’ve been in vain.
My wife and parents: “You’re going to be top bidder with that offer - any more and you’re wasting your money”.
Me: “I still think we’re low”
*2 hours later*
Solicitor: “Unfortunately you were 5th highest”…
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7 hours ago, Locke said:
Allow me to illustrate.
Apologies, I hadn’t read your original post properly.
I guess the issue is we are in the 5-6% territory nowadays, but house prices haven’t fallen 10%, let alone the 30-40% required for your example to be a reality.
Your illustration explains why I felt confident my recent bid on house could be a winner. I felt, naively(!), that by bidding significantly over the home report valuation that we stood a better chance because we had factored in some serious overpayments.
We offered 75k over a 350k house recently. My plan was to mitigate the 5% rate by overpaying by as much as £1500-2000 per month for 2-3 years. I mapped out how that impacted the interest and amount owed over years 1 to 5. Effectively bidding way more on that sole principle.
Wasnt to be. The houses list price was seriously undervalued and I heard we were still a bit off the top bidders figure.
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18 minutes ago, sell2rent said:
I'd far rather have the £200K one at 8%.
I didn’t give it too much thought, but 200/250k, yea I’d go 200k and try to batter it right some.
Like for like property prices though, it’s a no brainer. The lower interest rate is king.
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8 hours ago, Locke said:
Higher interest rates are much better for buyers.
With the same monthly payment and same term, the same overpayment on an 8% mortgage saves much more money than overpaying a 2% mortgage.
Of course, the total size of the mortgage is much smaller in an 8% environment.
Hmm… not sure this makes sense.
You’re saying overpayments have more impactful when they’re used to clear debt at 8% versus 2%. Sure.
I’d still rather be overpaying a 250k mortgage at 2% than a 200k one at 8%!!! Within 4 or 5 years I think I’d have beaten the curve…
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11 hours ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:
What a load of nonsense.
This is again magical thinking on HPC for you.
The markets are moving in the opposite direction.
I’m just asking if people think house prices would rocket if rates went back down. Some do, some don’t.
I think think they would because I think a reasonable amount of people see a 3% mortgage being significantly better value than 5%.
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40 minutes ago, sell2rent said:
Depends on the context for those rates.
Surely a reasonable proportion of more astute people will simply not accept borrowing excessive amounts at those levels?
When we did our calculations for our recent bids, it was the interest element of the proposed mortgages that informed our offers. More so than the figure we offered.
I could afford to pay £2000 pm to my lender, and would have little objection to doing so if the vast majority of it was going toward reducing the amount owed. But at current rates it’s not - you’re paying a premium to borrow.
When we sized up circa 400k bids, I planned out years 1 to 5 of a variety of mortgage options, and I just couldn’t stomach paying 10s of thousands in interest over than short period.
Ultimately that’s why I’m still in my current home and someone else in the place we really wanted… but I’m on 3% and can continue to save.
When rates do fall, prices will rocket because wages have improved vastly in the last 2-3 years… hence I’m apprehensive and holding off too long…
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On 4/22/2024 at 7:40 PM, Quid Game said:
There’s not a single person in my social circle who I know is bricking it about rates. It never comes up in conversation. We’re planning our holiday to Japan later in the year. Mates off to Barbados, Europe etc etc. Depends on your group I guess. When are you going to give up on predictions?
I’m the same.
Mortgage rates rose, but so did other bills, and thankfully our wages.
Higher rates have tamed HPI, however I’ve said before on these boards, many, many, many times… there won’t be a crash in Scotland.
I’ve put a few bids in on houses I posted links to in recent months. In a few examples we bid 10-15% over the home report valuation and were still only 3rd or 4th highest bidder.
Prices are cooling, it’s very evident. Very good properties are selling strongly. Average places that people overpaid for in recent years are not doing very well.
Theres not the same desperation among buyers right now. Very few houses are going to speedy closing dates and often houses are just selling for their asking price.
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Is anyone here disputing house prices would rocket were mortgage rates to fall back to 2 or 3%?
This is my single most fear as someone who wants a slightly bigger and ‘better’ family home.
We recently put a couple of offers in and the resultant monthly mortgage repayment was our number one consideration. Particularly the interest we would effectively be ‘losing’ to the lender.
I wouldn’t hesitate to borrow 300k if it was at 2 or 3%, I could live with the interest cost but at 5% it’s non-sensical…
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If you’re in the 40% income tax bracket then it’s madness not channelling a little extra into your workplace pension, if you are allowed to do so.
Particularly as you get older and access to that pot of money it’s on the horizon.
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13 hours ago, Social Justice League said:
Rejoining the EU isn't a fringe position. Nothing like it.
Starmer and Sunak are rat b4stard's though.
Who would you prefer was in Downing Street?
Its frightening the amount of people brainwashed into believing things would be worse under Labour…
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19 minutes ago, Stewy said:
It doesn't matter. Life is excellent in the UK regardless of petty political squabbles. ✓
We all know you don’t believe that.
People are irrefutably worse off these days. Public services a shadow of what they once were. Empty high streets. Many towns overrun with immigrants that add nothing economically. Folk can’t get a doctors or dentist appointment, and the waiting lists are appalling.
You will continue to attempt to troll, but back in the real world everyone else on these boards recognises the UK has regressed.
A mother at our kids school very recently passed away after a catalogue of NHS errors that failed to spot something that should’ve been treated years ago.
The government still blaming covid and labour for strikes…
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4 minutes ago, Fat Winston said:
is there some research and evidence that you used to come to this conclusion or is it just an opinion with made up percentages?
You’re not going to believe this, but I’ve come up with a percentage based on my experience of speaking to people.
I did not ask 50,000,000 brits for their latest view on the matter. Sorry for the confusion.
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90% would vote remain but the majority of brexiteers, including those on these boards, will lie and stick to their guns.
Brexit has been a disaster.
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Totally off topic but I just watched as a print on eBay, listed as being a ‘fake/copy’ in the title (!!!), and with a description saying it was bought from Etsy as a copy of a ‘James McQueen’ print, just sold for £320!!!!
Literally a fake print you can still buy from Etsy for £25… and a bidding war ensued until it sold for £320 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
Who are these stupid morons?!?! They are among us.
Is this the end of the Conservative Party?
in House prices and the economy
Posted
Hopefully the disgusting depth and scale of cronyism, lobbying, profiteering from conflicts of interest, and blatant lies dressed up as spin from this Tory party will be confined to history.
Disgusting bunch. I wonder how much they’ve robbed from the average tax payer over the last 14 years?!
I wonder how much of our money has gone directly to they, or their associates net worth…