Pablo-silver or lead?

Bournemouth & Poole Peak 1988/89 bottom 1992/93 minus 35 to 55% across the board. You could buy a 2 bed detached bungalow on the Sandbanks penisula (Not water frontage or sea view) for £137K. A Neo Georgian Town house sold at peak 1988 for £235k. Bought at bottom 1993 for £84k. Now worth £380K. Yes property can fall 40%. Pablo Silver or Lead?

My wife, daughter and I had a couple of years if Florida to see if we wanted to make it home. We decided to that it was not for us and got out at the Top in July 2005. Below are a few observations:- Double dealing ‘Visa Consultants’. Written quote from our visa consultant. “Sorry I can’t explain why I consistently lied to you in my emails, and why your application was delayed 10 months, please send me a cheque for $7500, or I will report you to US immigration and have you deported!” Lying cheating ‘Real Estate’ professionals. Quote “This $350,000 villa won’t cost you a cent. Re-mortgage your UK home, put 20% down and self certify the loan. The holiday rentals from 35 to 40 weeks a year bookings will cover your costs and you’ll have free holidays for your family”. “In fact if you buy two I’ll furnish them free of charge, sign here”. Thousands of Brits a day arrive in Florida; they are lambs to the slaughter. Great Floridian Weather, hard frosts in the winter! Followed by 100% humidity and three Hurricanes in our first summer!!! We had Charley, Francis and Jeanne go right over the top of us (Ivan missed). Apart from the damage, there were stranded guests, grocery shortages, no fuel, 50 mile tail backs, curfews, water/power cuts, looters etc. Amongst all this we were running a property management company responsible for 35 villas all owned by fellow Brits and full of holiday makers. Poverty like the third world (In the richest country). Thousands of people holding down two to three jobs, being paid cash weekly (they can’t afford bank accounts), to pay the rent and feed the kids. Invalid, Octogenarian grocery packers at Wall Mart/Win-Dixie, carrying our heavy groceries to the truck, wearing badges saying “Don’t tip me, carry out is a free service”. If they didn’t work they couldn’t buy the medication they need to live! Trailer park, White Trash, Redneck Ghettos. Just outside the tourist corridors/areas many locals live in manufactured homes or trailer parks. Where conditions are reminiscent of the Grapes of Wrath meets the Hillbillies from Deliverance. My 13 year old daughter went to a junior high school with 1800 pupils (she had up until then been in UK prep schools with under 200 children, what a learning experience for her). She met a girl in her year whose mother was 12 when she was borne. That’s not all, she had a brother who was 2 years older! Expats The British expats fall into two categories. The first are there to rip off anyone they can and especially other newbie, wetback Brits. The second are hardworking honest people scrapping together a marginal living off the back of the tourist industry because financially they can’t return to the UK. Wildlife in suburbia. We had gators in the garden, turtles as big as dustbin lids in the garage, black widow spiders, and snakes in the house and swimming pool. If that wasn’t enough on trash days there would be up to 25, 6 foot wing span ‘Turkey Vultures’ sitting on the roof. Also racoons, armadillos and panthers. No wonder the locals carry guns! Add to this, reams of regulation, licensing and multi-tier government generated paper chases. A compensation culture where to sue is the first option and insurance the best defence. A gun culture where Jeb Bush the Governor supported a new ‘Castle Doctrine self defence law’! Described by critics as a, ‘Shoot first ask questions later!’ charter. That effectively makes Florida a ‘Free fire’ zone for vigilantes and will increase the number of ‘disputes’ between neighbours that end in shootings. You just have to drive down the road to witness prison chain gangs, poor black crop pickers toiling in the fields, bank robberies and car-jacking all in the shadow of the big eared mouse, Disney World! No very happy to be back on the Dorset Riviera. Pablo Silver or Lead?

The MPC are in danger of looking well 'behind the game', so they have to act if only not be accused culpable negligence. .25% increase July, more to follow! Pablo Silver or Lead?

Looks like amateur night is over? You only get 3 or 4 opportunities to witness events like this in a life time. Look and learn. UK interest rate will be 5.5% to 6% by the end of 2007. First rise (.25%) in July 06. Do not take your investment advice from the tabloid press. No one can say they haven’t been warned! Pablo Silver or Lead?

Gordon is doing the right thing. He is putting the long term good of the country before his own political ambitions. Mr Brown said: “There’s recognition that the world economy has had three years in a row of some of the fastest overall growth since the 1970s. But inflationary pressures exist because of oil. Interest rates have been going up in most of the big areas. There are obviously some vulnerabilities as a result of political instability and we’ve got to be vigilant.” Now it’s all going ‘shi$$ shape’ Gordon can blame the MPC. “I gave them their independence and they’ve played fast and lose with the long term stability of the UK economy by failing to raise rates early enough and high enough to squeeze out the wealth eroding demon of inflation”. “They’ve overseen the country become a nation of debt junkies”. Witnessing so many personal (albeit self inflicted) tragedies, is going to be painful. Watching how Gordon Brown is going to play out the next 18 month is going to be interesting. Pablo Silver or Lead?

A shoe box in the loft or matress padding, no a High Street 3 month access saver account. Cash will soon be king. Pablo Silver or Lead?

If this is really happening why are so many builders selling 'New build' properties at lower prices than 6 months ago? And private vendors being talked into reducing their prices by EA's and RightMove? UK IR will go up .25% in July/Aug and again .25% befor Xmas. There will be more rises in 07. But if you think the Express is correct, keep buying. Pablo Silver or Lead?

They'd better keep it quiet as they want to Join EEC and the Euro. One size fits all, I don't think so as Ireland's are about to find out. Ireland needed rates of 5% 2 years ago to prevent the unsustainable property bubble from developing. Now it's here it WILL go pop. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Even through the good times US lenders (and any other institution with the legal right) are quick to reposes/posses property when lending or financial commitments related to the house are in default. In one example a British couple lost their 5 bed detached holiday villa in Florida because they failed (unwittingly) to pay the Home Owners Association (HOA) dues (for the lawn cutting and street lighting) which amounted to $600. They came out on vacation and their keys didn't fit 'their' front door. The property was auctioned on Polk county court house steps for just enough to cover the outstanding mortgage, HOA dues and recovery costs. I've got 100 Florida stories much worse than that and they'll all be in the 'book'. Now the Florida market has fallen of a cliff (The real Estate guys say nothing much selling and thousands of properties coming on the market), repossessions will be happening like Orange blossom in a Hurricane. Pablo Silver or Lead?

This time it really is different. Following the crash it will all look so obvious. The massive disconnect of prices from fundimentals. The sheer amount of debt people have taken on. As I've said before a whole generation have only seen prices rise. The institutions providing the cheap money, at ever increasing wage multiples to FTB's and wet behind the ears BTL's, bear a lot of the blame. It's going to be messy. Pablo Silver or Lead?

One thing caused the US property bubble, I/R being lowered too far for too long folowing 9/11 (and slack lending) sucking in millions of FTB's and mug BTL's. The UK followed the US rates down. We will now follow them up. 25,000 Brits own Florida vilas/condos many mewing their UK property for the 20% self cert deposit. The US resale market fell off a cliff last year and every cost associated with owning a US property is going through the roof. Sounds familiar? Anyone with 'investment' exposure to the UK, Irish, Spanish (et al property) markets is going to learn about property investment in the context of global economic forces. It's Bath Time! Pablo Silver or Lead? PS. anyone who does not think there is a link between the US and UK economies, is a poor reader of history!

1988 sold off plan £235k (bought as a Buy to flip investment by someone who thought property only goes up). 1992 I bought it for £89K from Barclays bank (it was repo'd) Now worth £375k 2008 market value £270k The fundimentals are out'a wack you can't beat the market. Pablo Silver or Lead?

andrewmal your're taking on a 300k mort to buy a 375k flat that in 2 years may be worth 250k. Why not just rent and keep an eye on cheap money drying up, oil reaching $100 and the market unraveling. Get your lawyer to write into the agreement with your parents that they will underwrite any capital losses for you in the first 5 years of ownership. What organisation did you say you were joining? Pablo Silver or Lead?

Sam Don’t bank on it. This isn't Florida where HPI is historically a steady 3 to 4% a year (well it was until they flooded the market with cheap post 9/11 money). This is the UK and we’re in pretty uncharted territory. If prices aren’t' going up they’re going down. Property has many costs associated with its ownership. A lot of people who either bought in the last 2 to 4 years and or have entered the BTL market without thinking it through, are in for a shock. The amount of newbie BTL’ers out there is under reported. Due to mort/insurance/tax fraud. According to the Letting/Managing agents I know, many landlords are feeling pain, that up until now was outside their experience. A lot of people are just about to learn some facts of economic life. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Cash under the mattress is going to be king! Pablo Silver or Lead?

The Euro Zone will now reap the true market 'rewards' of the one size (IR) fits all. The boom in property prices in places like Spain & Ireland was to a great extent caused by Germany needing low rates to 'help' their economy. That and post 9/11 reflationary reductions. Euro Zone IR's at 3% by year end. I think so (thats a 20% increase), with more to come in 07. A message for all the amatuer, naive and 'fake it till you make it Kevin and Tracey 'buy to letters', from an old un-reconstructed free marketeer. YOU CAN'T BUCK THE MARKET! It looks like we're all about to receive a big bill for what we though was a free lunch. Have you been dining on Lobster or linguine? Oh and they've just change their policy, its cash only! Pablo Silver or Lead?

Spoony I'm a subject mater expert on Florida. Dont buy there until prices are - 40% from the peak. The peak in Florida was late 05. Never have I seen a property market change from bull to bear so quickly. Pablo Silver or Lead?

The people buying now wether ftb's btl's, trader uppers or people old enought to know better helping their grown up kids get on the treadmill. Have got their timing wrong big time. DONT DO IT! Prices can halve in three years. They have befor and they could again. If that happens then a lot of people who've bought in the last 4 years are going to be paying back debts for life. Pablo silver or lead?

It's slowly dawning on people that Newcastle is at the forfront of this cycle. Its lead us up to some crazy prices and it along with other Northern cities will lead us down.How do you get a City centre, Urban chick, Executive 2 bed balcony appartment in Newcastle for £110k, easy wait till 2008. Pablo Silver or Lead?

The Market in Florida peaked in 2005. I have never seen any property market turn fron ultra bull to ultra bear so quick. On some sub-divisions of 200 properties over 30% are on the market, many for over 6 months. The only way to sell is lower the price to a level a prospective buyer thinks is below bottom. Lots of naive poor Brits dreams going down the tubes. Pablo Silver or Lead?

If a VI Lender says interest rates need to go to 8% for it to work (If it isn't hurting it isn't working). That will only encourage BOE MPC to raise rates. I suspect that IR at 5.25 to 6% will do the trick but if fecless borrowers want them higher to curb their behaviour, let em have it. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Well over a million Britain’s now own holiday homes abroad. Our love affair with owning ‘a place in the sun’ has never been greater. As ever Spain, France, Italy and Portugal are proving popular. More recently as prices have been pushed up in these countries we’ve looked further a field. To places like Slovenia and Croatia in what was the old Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. You cant beat the Dalmatian coast only don’t dig too deep in the back garden, as mass graves are commonplace and 20,000 bodies are still unaccounted for. They don’t put that in the sales presentation. Recently Latvia, Bulgaria and Romania are being pushed as the next hot, ‘Fly to Buy/Fly to Let’ leading edge locations. When buying abroad its important to recognise that the laws, processes, customs and practice, for the transfer of unencumbered title to land and property, are not the same as in the UK. We hear horror stories, where unsuspecting Brits having bought abroad, only to find themselves with no end of problems, having either been duped or failed to take appropriate precautions. Be it problems with the escritura (title deed) in Spain along with inflated capital gains tax bills due to black money (dinero negro), Villas built on war expropriated land in Northern Cyprus or inheritance/tax issues in Monrovia. As mentioned earlier with countries like Romania and Bulgaria now being pushed as destinations to buy holiday homes, the term Caveat Emptor has never been more appropriate. If you’re not entirely happy with the reputation for honesty of Estate Agents at home here in the UK, wait till you meet some of the ex Transylvanian Donkey rustlers selling unsuspecting Brits holiday homes in Tulcea and Constanta on the Black Sea! Where next? Ski lodges in Nagorno-Karabakh, just 8 days yak ride from Baku international airport. Or Beach Villas on the Aral’s Sea health Spa, specialising in chemical body scrubs, with all the toxic pollution you can drink. Prices start at 3 million Dram (£45,000), 10% discount if you buy off plan. Legal title guaranteed by The South Caucasus Development Corporation of Kazakhstan. All deposits underwritten by the Bank of Chechnya, as advertised on Channel 4 by the regional goodwill ambassador Borat! Don’t miss this ground floor, investment opportunity of a lifetime! Pablo Silver or Lead?

A lot of people needing to move (job change) or trade up (1 bed to 2 bed) will rent to buy. Thus increasing their debt and doubling their exposure to HPC and negative equity. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Average HOUSEHOLD salary maybe? Pablo Silver or Lead?

Whats a high earner? I left school 16yrs not able to write everyone said I was thick. Taught myself to write, got a job £8.5k PA. Taught myself about the motivation of greed (in myself and others) and learnt to negotiate, got a job earning £150k PA. Everyone one that reported to me were multilingual and had good degrees from some of the best Uni's across Europe, some were effective and highly intelligent, others less so. Eventually I learnt that I wanted a role and a job that allowed me to be me. Due to that and circumstance I now Earn less than £20k PA. £150k-£25K it doesn’t affect the important things in life. If I was happy kicking ass and taking names or I would kill my granny for the next deal, I could earn lots and lots, but I view myself as fortunate to know it wouldn't increase either the quality or my perception of the quality of my life. It's a very fulfilling place to. That is being contented with what you have and not desiring more. Here endeth the Science of Self realisation philosophy lesson. Pablo Silver or Lead?