Sancho Panza

Many thanks for that.Interesting reading. Mrs Panza spent her first five years in the UK with words to the effect of 'no recourse to public funds' on her card. It broke her watching her taxes getting spunked on people who'd arrived via a different route-EU/non EU- and claiming benefits. This country's political class has betrayed working people especially younger ones. We are in a position to buy but prefer to rent and invest our capital elsewhere. For us,it's a choice but for many it's not and that 2 month no fault eviction constantly looms over people.The financial impacts of having to find new deposits and up front payments hammers lower earning demographics. The Tories are lost and the only thing saving them is the fact that the electoral system prevents the rise of challengers.The saving grace for both Crobyn and May is that their chief opponent is an electoral liability.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/#utm_source=uknewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=hpi&utm_campaign=newsletterfebruary18

Nice find.

I think you're right Mrs B.A lot will get blamed on Brexit that has little to do with it. Males you want to fly up and buy before you miss the boat.

There's more than 6 I think-Hinkley/Charnwood/NW Leics/Blaby/Oadby/Melton/harborough...........and Leicester too.Top heavy. Leicester-Band D £1770. There's loads of this type of job dumping been going on for years.Noone taking ownership and admitting what the problems actually are. Yep,but noone wants to be the govt the tells the people how fubar things are.I think thats wy theres the subtle drip drip of laoding jobs onto councils and cutting funding so that people realise these things are catually paid for.Council tax is something people pay out of their own pockets rather than paying ti to the govt to give it back to councils. There's a huge,looming problem with type 2 diabetes coming.

I agree strongly with the bits in bold. This is avery difficult market and it could well be the end of a 35 bull in bonds.I wouldn't take the risk of bonds in this market especially given the various bits of forward guidance the fed are coming out with re raising rates.Unless you're in the top 1% of the population then holding cash is a viable alternative to holding bonds. For me at the moment,trying to work out where the Fed is going and why is the key to the equities space.If they do allow tresury rates to rise-and it's a big if- then equities could be in deep trouble.Why sit i the S&P on 2.5% yield when you can sit in 10 years for 3%? I think there's really large risk in lower rated corporate bonds. It's a big 'if' DB......trying to read whether they will QE or not.Ten years of history says they will but recent pronouncements indicate a change in forward guidance and discussion on here about what their changing raison d'etre.If it has changed-and all the atmospherics indicate that it has-then I think I'll certainly be showing a little caution when pondering the return of QE. There was an excellent discussion of this a few pages back and I came out of it with a distinct change of view-what this thread has done a few times and is it's strength- and that is that the Fed is starting to worry about the end of dollar hegemony.That would explain the changing atmospherics and some Fed head honcho talking about speeding up QT.........that's a sea change. As per the Mish comments...I have a contact who's a surveyor-resi- who values a range of properties for different lenders, and he has been saying for sometime that Nationwide and the smaller BS's have been doing the heavy lifting in the lower quality loan marke,the's one surveyor and it's just his opinion.Still,it does tie in with this notion that they will protect the big boys and let the smaller ones suffer,just like the US.Have the last ten years been about transferring risk from big banks to BS's in the UK,mirroring the trend in the US? PS many thanks for the heads up on NRR.Not that I'm in the market for any CRE but you make a lot of sense when you put the case fot them.

I look at Leicester,average salary £22k and change.Average house price around the £180k mark. There's a long way to go before average local salaries can support house prices. As a for instance, £120k gets you a two up two down in a not so nice bit of town where the local school is on special measures. Birmingham might rival it. I don't know what it's like where you are but in Leicester they've built thousands of student rooms.I'm not sure who'll pick up the rental slack for the sh1tholes the students used to live in. Apt turn of phrase Barnsey.

Worth reading Free Traders assessment of the LSL Acadata index.Sadly,he's not been around in a while. hattip @Neverwhere for finding it.

Debt deflation category In the US of A,which has had a rising housing market since 2010,the big banks have taken the opportunity to allow the non banks a greater share of mortgage lending..........................aka offload risk to them. Worth noting Mish focuses on the issue of credit deflation/inflation rather than price deflation/inflation. https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/economics/housing-liquidity-crisis-coming-debt-deflation-follows-YLaO72UxNU-najv2-Khdig 'Mish Comments The Brookings article is 68 pages long. The above snips capture the essence of their liquidity crisis claim but they provide much more detail. Shocks Coming Nonbanks are vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks, rising interest rates, home price declines and job losses, often with a bare minimum down payment. This is happening while debt-to-income DTI ratios are on the rise and median FICO scores are dropping. This is hardly surprising given homes are not affordable. Failure is a Given Brookings provides the failure hierarchy, and failure is a given. To keep the latest bubble going, nonbanks kept lowering and lowering credit standards as home prices kept rising and rising. This is a recipe for disaster, and disaster is at hand. Housing Collapse Coming Four days ago, before I saw the Brookings article, I commented Housing Collapse Coming Right Up. The Brookings article reinforces my opinion. Meanwhile, overdue debt is at a seven-year high. Distressed debt surged 11.5% in the fourth quarter. The Financial Times also notes "More Americans are also falling behind on their mortgages, for which problematic debt levels rose 5.2 percent over the same period to $56.7 billion." Deflationary Debt Trap Setup These numbers are huge deflationary. When credit expands there is inflation. When credit contracts (think defaults, bankruptcies, mortgage walk-away events), debt deflation occurs. Here's my definition of inflation: An increase in money supply and credit, with credit marked to market. Deflation is the opposite: A decrease in money supply and credit, with credit marked to market. Looking Ahead Credit card delinquencies are priced as if they will be paid back. They won't. As soon as recession hits, defaults and charge-offs will mount. In turn, this will reduce the amounts banks will be willing to lend. Subprime corporations who had been borrowing money quarter after quarter will find they are priced out of the market, unable to roll over their debt. In a fiat credit-based global setup, this is how the real world works. Unanimous Opinions Seldom are opinions nearly unanimous. This is one of those times. Nearly everyone is looking for "inflation". We have it! It's in home prices, junk bond prices, and equity prices. The equity bubble is about to burst.'

Also from another thread on here LSL Acadata has gone yoy negative for first time in Jan 18 http://www.acadata.co.uk/LSL Acadata E&W HPI News Release January 18.pdf And another entrant in the house price index market market with a pretty good sample based on the LSL version and including new builds,cash sales has HPI at - 4.7%..................... https://www.londoncentralportfolio.com/Hidden-Files/LCP/PR/LCPAca Resi Index (Feb 2018).pdf Thread here

Shaun Richards on the matter. https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2018/03/09/the-uk-has-a-construction-problem/ ' As to construction it seems to have hit something of a nuclear winter and as government policy has been involved in the creation of this via the impact of Carillion you might think it would be paying more attention, especially as other companies have not dissimilar weaknesses. If this was the banking sector the money would be pouring in. Also are we not supposed to be in the middle of a house building surge? '

Thanks for posting.I'm wary of reading too much into their justifications but you can see that to raise rates they need a clear rationale and this really does lay that out in detail. I'm still amazed that the West has lived through ten years of price and house price inflation and the Fed/BoE etc missed it,but there you go. They're not for turning. 'Don’t let the understated language fool you. This one sentence encapsulates a marked shift in tone. And now policy dove Lael Brainard is onboard too. The fact that she is giving the first major speech after Powell echoing the same theme is significant. It tells you that the messaging is coordinated. And it also tells you that there is a general consensus on that messaging. This is a really important speech. So, let’s pick apart what Brainard said line by line. I will translate from Fedspeak to normal speak. Translation: I told you in 2017 that I was still cautious about raising rates. And now I am telling you that this was in part because global economic growth was uneven. The outlook was less certain. Things are totally different today. I am bullish on the global economy. Everything looks good. Translation: From 2014 to 2016, it was tough. The US dollar appreciated significantly as the shale bubble collapsed. That was a drag on business spending and growth. But uneven growth abroad was also a concern. I was a dove at the time for that reason. Now, things are different. The macro outlook supports robust business spending. And the only reason the dollar is declining is because things are so good abroad. Other central banks are going to tighten too. Translation: So what if we recently had a correction? Things still look pretty good to us at the Fed. In fact, you could say valuations are stretched. And if you compare today to how things were during the shale oil bust, we’re on easy street. I’m concerned. Translation: Do you recall Bernanke and Yellen screaming about the “withdrawal of fiscal support”? That left the Fed in an uncomfortable position in fulfilling its dual mandate. We had to offset that. But now, just when we’re basically at full employment, the fiscal taps have opened full bore. We’re talking huge numbers. I don’t say it explicitly, but we’ll offset that too. In fact, fiscal policy is the “most notable tailwind” for the US economy. Translation: It’s strange that inflation has been so weak since we’re at near full employment. You can call the factors “transitory” as Chair Yellen has done. Still, numbers crunchers say there are deep-seated factors holding inflation back. In the end, we simply aren’t meeting our inflation mandate and we intend to do that. Translation: I say we’re near full employment. The US unemployment rate is near 50-year lows, after all. But, really, this isn’t an exact science. We simply don’t know what constitutes full employment given all the people who’ve left the labor force. Translation: It’s pretty much all tailwinds now, folks. I am now hawkish. A regime shift is at hand. First, let me say, we’ll be gradual about raising rates. And even if inflation goes above 2% for a bit of time, I’m comfortable with that because lowflation and zero rates are a toxic mix. Second, let me say, the Fed’s watching the unemployment rate because some of us think it’s low enough to stoke inflation. The reality is that unemployment doesn’t get this low often. So, frankly, we don’t really know if there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. But, you remember I told you that financial markets were booming despite the correction? That’s a big concern for us. The Fed’s supposed to take away the punch bowl because we know bankers relax standards late in a business cycle. The good thing is that, unlike in 2007, households aren’t leveraged up and banks have more capital. But we’re watching. Translation Conclusion: We’re bullish on the economy. Still, we’re not going to hike every meeting like we did under Greenspan. Pay attention, though. Here’s the key takeaway for you, since I’m saying it last. “The macro environment today is the mirror image of the environment we confronted a couple of years ago”. That tells you I’m an economic bull. And since I used to be a dove that had to be convinced to raise rates, that’s important. I’m still cautious about the jobs picture. But now I a hawk. This marks a change in Fed policy.'

That and the fact that they could then tax it and pensioners could invest in it in a more orderly manner.

The key thing with these flats is that the service fees are levied on the landlord.Which you have to net off vs yield as it's different for a freehold. As above Ah-so, these yields aren't net of service fees.Position could be a lot worse. Maybe the reason why this new LCP Acadata index has dropped is down to it's inclusion of new build?

Noone.Well,until they get a lot cheaper. Always great when someone with local knowledge can claify the position. RM is truggling for houses to advertise from what I can see but then I only look at Leicester for reference.may be different elsewhere.

They aren't static groups of people.Between 25-44 is the period of life most people are mobile workwise so STR but also immigration would affect those groups as recent immigrants less likely to have equity to buy.

http://www.acadata.co.uk/LSL Acadata E&W HPI News Release January 18.pdf I paraphrase 'yoy negative for first time in Jan 18 at £301,477 London down 4.3% yoy biggest fall since August 09 Top 11 out of 33 London Boroughs down the most K&C down 12.9% 75% of unitary authority's in England & Wales recoridng growth in 2017. Now more outright owners than mortgage holders Owner occupiers aged 25-34 is down from 57% to 37% 2006 to 2017 Owner occupiers aged 35-44 down 72% to 52%'

Worth seeing FT's assessment in full Also worth noting that on the January LSL Acadata there are revisions to their index for last year where some negtives have turned positive. http://www.acadata.co.uk/LSL Acadata E&W HPI News Release January 18.pdf http://www.acadata.co.uk/LSL Acadata E&W HPI News Release September 17.pdf

It does appear at first glance as being quite comprehensive doesn't it? That's exactly the post Neverwhere.Thank you. As someone said previously,it would work to steer investors that are left to steer away from new builds toward their offering. There's some kudos with having the most comprehensive dataset out there.

I'd take a chav problem over the inter ethnic rivalries and ghettoes that have developed in Leicester. I speak as a second gen-anti immigrant I ain't(Mrs P is first gen).But what's developed isn't the multicultural paradise it gets sold as.

Me and Mrs P should be straight Tory voters in terms of income/age/assets.The fact that I'd rather chew broken glass than vote for someone as unbelievably out of her depth as Treeza the appeeza tells me how much trouble the Tories are in. They've been in demogrpahic decline for years and seem to believe that if they just send a younger version of the OxBridge banker shill then I and people like me,will somehow see past their previous misdemeanours and start voting for them again. Corbyn did well,because she was so awful.People read too much into his success at the last GE. PS Had to laugh when in response to -allegedly-Russia using nerve agent on a British national she suggested not sending any alikadoos to the World Cup.Thatcher she ain't.

Out of 600 odd MPs,there's only a couple of hundred seats where you can do any damage to the incumbent. First past the post is ideal for troughers looking to get their snouts in for 40+ years. Impressive. Durhamborn?

There's a reason they're going under.This has been coming for a long time.

We had the misfortune of renting off them a few years back.I've cut and pasted from another CW thread 'http://www.frankinnes.co.uk/content/_shared/assets/pdf/OnlineTenantsGuide.pdf admin fee-£50 per tenant referncing fee £75 per tenant check in fee-minimum £72 tenancy agreement-£300 other charges sharer-£300 extension agreements -£125 outgoing referencing fee-£24 Optional extras express move in within 3 days-£100 Express 5 days-£50 Saturday move in-£60 Pet licence-£75 So a joint application could be northwards of £625. We recently moved and the LL told us he'd never use them again.Aside from the stunts they pulled,he said their fees were limiting his tenant pool. Like I said,c**** and you can guess how I'm spelling it.' 'Just to add an example of how p1ss poor Countrywide were. They sent us a letter saying they were doing us a favour by only raising the rent by £50 and the contract fee would be only £150......the way they worded it,it seemed like you had to re-sign. Obviously,after years on here I told Mrs P to ask the LL if he knew about it. The LL to be fair exploded because he had specifically told them he didn't want to raise the rent and was happy for us to go onto a periodic. My experiences with other,smaller LA's have been better.'