Wig

Pics or stfu noob

No stamp duty up to £250k for first time buyers at the moment.. (until March 2012 I believe)

As a potential buyer I've been having some interesting conversations with EAs over the past weeks. Recently rather than going through the usual scripted conversations, I have used their update calls as an opportunity to conduct a piece of my own market research, in that I bang on about the market being overpriced, (when you take into account wages, the economy, number of unsold properties etc etc) then I sit back and pay attention to how they respond. Tellingly to me, the vast majority aren't trying to deny that prices are overinflated. I've used phrases like ridiculous pricing, and fantasy prices and one EA conceded that "1/3 of the market is probably priced about right, 1/3 is probably overpriced, and 1/3 is as you put it fantasy pricing" For an agent to concede the point was reassuring that maybe they've given up trying to fly the lala kite and are as frustrated with the vendor aspirations as the rest of us... Or most of them have... My personal favourite, a gem from a few days back: "We've seen the bottom now, you won't be able to buy at any lower than they are now" I actually laughed down the phone at that one, and they repeated it, which made me laugh again.

Swindon gets a bad rep, in the scheme of things its not a bad town, every place has its good and bad parts, I've seen a hell of a lot worse towns and cities across England than Swindon! But yeah the negative equity stakes are on my mind clearly, and 15% doesnt' take long to get eaten up when the panic sets in! As for long term planning, no one can look forward ten years and say which industries will be prospering, which areas of the country will have good employment, even which countries!! Emigrating has crossed our mind recently - but to where!! the planet is ******ed to the same debt ridden tune in my opinion, so emigration isn't a safe bet now is it Cheers Wig

Not entirely sure what point you're trying to make here friend I'm guessing most people know what I'm talking about when I refer to a deposit? Maybe I should have said a downpayment Or perhaps more accurately the first 'black hole' filler...

thanks goldbug I've quoted across and added to swindon thread in the regional discussion. I'll keep the Swindon specific stuff over there from now on

Quoting across from general as will try and keep Swindon discussion in here: Yeah we might be pretty fussy in that we want somewhere we're happy to live for the next ten years or so and bring up a family etc which is why we want to get a decent size house with a garden etc. plus the fact we're quite late as FTBs in our early 30s so are sort of having to jump a couple of rungs on the ladder, I guess from my pov we 'should' be able to afford more than we currently can, purely based on my very simplistic assumption that a couple on half decent earnings should be able to afford a half decent house if that makes sense. Which leads me to conclude the market is grossly overpriced. I may be wrong of course. I'm interested in your pov that prices don't have much further to fall in swindon because of the recent builds - surely that would suggest oversupply and falling prices? or are you suggesting this has already happened? Thanks for the offer might take you up onthat one cheers Wig

Thanks for the bump cheeznbreed, Newbie alert!! I've started a bit of an FTB discussion (and introduction) thread in the general forum here http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=166888 but will try and keep the Swindon specific stuff to this thread. Cheers Wig

Theres a whole topic in itself!! How do you protect your savings though? theres another global debt crisis around the corner with the greek first domino ready to topple at any moment, are your £s even safe in the banks this is the thing whcih is playing on my mind now... Time to get bloody good at forex trading bloody quickly!!

This is the position I'm beginning to come around to, as I mentioned in an earlier post, prices are only going to come down (probably) and interest rates cannot come down any lower (almost definitely) Which is further compounded by the fact that as FTBs with 85% ltv we can't realise the lowest rates. Thanks for the succint summary bud.

too late for that one mate, although its from parents and grandparents, I would have rather put it to the deposit but some things you've got to concede on...

I have to be honest I can't actually remember, it was when reviewed our finances through a whole of market financial advisor (friend of a friend) a few months back and that was the top level number in terms of what we'd be 'allowed' by the bank to borrow. It may well have come down now but it was mainly to illustrate that we're not trying to borrow pie in the sky amounts (relative to what we're 'allowed' to) although the figures we are planning to borrow still feel painful in the current precarious state... cheers

Hi juvenal Where do you get this information? you're sitting on a goldmine there - assume this is through your own research? cheers Wig

Thanks for the welcome, I was going to post on the Swindon thread but this was more a general comment on the state of the market, will certainly join the Swindon discussion thread in future though. Yep I've been using all the tools available I've been able to find (mainly through browsing this site), although I haven't figured out how to update property bee, probably something very obvious but wanted to do my bit. As for areas we are currently renting in old town so had planned to stay up here but it seems to be operating in a fantasy world of its own in terms of pricing, even more so than the rest of the town, so we've been looking out at west swindon grange park area and a bit further north. Cheers for the auction links too, I have recently discovered the strakers link and have been keeping an eye on it will continue to do so

Hi, yes I use both cheers property-bee is useful to a degree, although I think the EAs are pretty cute at re listing to get around the chains. I've watched properties go sold, get delisted then come back on a week later as a new entry. Of course they could have sold but it wouldn't surprise me they haven't. We're looking at west swindon mainly, have seen a couple bit further north where you get more for your money, but still hugely overpriced in my opinion. thanks

Glad to hear it congrats on getting the deal you wanted, I agree persistance pays off and we are firmly sticking to our guns. In fact if anything we are reviewing our position in that we are feeling overstretched rather than the other way...

This is my concern, that 15% is not enough and that prices could quite easily come down by that within the next year wiping out our deposit and leaving us up sht creek. It feels like we're on the wrong side of both equations, ie buying at a high price, low interest rate. So at risk of interest rate rises and price falls compounding the reversal in our position. Thanks for the response.

First post here, I've been reading this site for the last few months, thanks for opening my eyes up to the bigger picture re the housing market is all I can say: My Fiance and I are planning to buy our first house - we're both early 30s and have been looking in the town we currently rent (Swindon) we are settled in the area and the plan is to buy somewhere to grow a family into over the next ten years. A home not an investment by the way. Both above average earners £75k combined gross income, and have saved a £35k deposit which we're adding to every month. Haven't been on holiday past couple of years don't go out much, basically focussed on getting a deposit together. Whilst saving for a wedding next year! As we will never be in this position again as first time buyers, no stamp duty etc no moving fees as we have nothing to move in!! Our plan was to maximise what we can get now, stretch ourselves as much as possible etc etc. The banks say we can borrow up to about £320k which is a scary amount but have set our cap at around £220k (still scary ) which currently means a 15% deposit seems reasonably prudent, and at current rates would mean the mortgage repayments would equal about half of my takehome pay. Anyway up until the last month or so we were pressing ahead trying to find a property to move into have been looking at the properties in our area up to the £250k level and putting in a few offers up to about £220k which have all been rejected. I'm becoming more and more conscious of how overpriced the market feels, mainly based on the fact that as above average earners with a half decent deposit, logic dictates we should be able to afford something above average. Which we cannot at current asking prices. This is not particularly aspirational, just a logical assumption on my part. This is where I'm becoming frustrated with the market and believe prices are fundamentally flawed. I don't think we are anything special, nor have a divine right to house A at price B, but we both work hard pay our dues and there is no value in housing. Which is where I began to read this site and it was refreshing to see not everyone is repeating the mantra of house prices can only ever go up, invest in bricks and mortar you can't go wrong. This of course has been true until the phenomenon of cheap credit (and BTL) which effectively turned housing from shelter into a commodity like any other, the dire consequences of which mean it is subject to the market forces of any other commodity which have the power to drive prices of said commodity in either direction away from its 'true value', namely Fear and Greed. At some point I was considering that maybe we were being unrealistic and should look at smaller properties etc but I firmly believe we're not being unrealistic and the fact I keep coming back to is the average house = 7x the average wage? something is rotten in denmark. Anyway since reading this site, I've been having some interesting conversations with EAs trying to gauge their true sentiment towards the market. It's thrown up some classic cliche's and some eye openers which I'll share in another post as I am rambling now. Thanks for the great site, keep the great work up, and don't let the bastards grind you down! Cheers Wig