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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by ianbeale

  1. click on atached image for a giggle at how desperate EAs are getting - location connels plymstock, plymouth (if anybody knows how to put the image in the dialogue box then please do so) eawindow.bmp eawindow.bmp
  2. you forgot to mention that inflation has stayed down...taxi
  3. what did it self 4 when new??
  4. i have been looking since i STRed in the minicrash of Q1 05 so prices have gone up 15% i real terms since then but I would say that they have dropped about 3% in real terms from their Q2 07 peak - the only ones that are selling now are those that are making sizeable reductions. For most of the market there is a standoff between buyers and sellers with about a 5-10% gulf between what is being asked and what is prepared to be paid - this gap is widening daily. I expect to see some marked falls in the spring - its startred already, just look at this weeks homeseeker - it looks like a supermarket flyer with all those new price tags. keep the faith IB
  5. defiately signs of a downturn now - a prop that was on my wish list that seemed good value (relatively) at 325k has just been chopped to 299k - will i buy? not just yet - i think ill give it a few months to see if the market starts moving again in early spring - hpc is shaping up nicely in muff. will be watching RICS figs like a hawk... keep the faith ib
  6. I think we need 2.1 or more to put this cut talk to bed what chance??? with some good factory gate figs, petrol, food and all - you never know
  7. a quick reality snapshot for all in this post cruch era Plain and simple - What is happening to prices on your patch? (actual prices not what you wish for)
  8. surely this month nationwide will fianlly capiltulate into neg MoM hpi....or will it my call neg 0.4 for what its worth
  9. I dont expect to see decent falls until the new year when people will get realistic whith stuff that has been stuck on the market for months. You will also get lots of grannies dying of the cold etc which is always good for speedy sales at knockdown prices as the benefactors want their slice of the pie. Happy Christmas...
  10. plug the site and get the knife into BTL (that is the markets achilees heel) get them spitting into their cornflakes(own brand) on their 3% yeilds - rent not covering half the repayments et al-have a word with declan to get him not to dismiss you as a doomsayer as others have done. good luck mate - were all with you you are "seconds from greatness" keep the faith ianbeale
  11. spline please can you update this as it is the best forward looking indicator around IMHO. keep the faith
  12. at a glance looks good value - but beware hayle is full of inbreds
  13. a point well made but the interviewers were a bit dismissive i felt
  14. as a good look forward indicator of opinion just use www.cantorspreadfair.com essentially a poll of sentiment where people are prepared to put there money where their mouth is - at the momment showing -4% for the next year (-7% real terms). when this index starts to show yoy rises i will buy (maybe)
  15. 28 jul 07 dec 07 199.3 mar 08 197.8 jun 08 195.2 sep 08 192.9 4 aug 07 dec 07 200.4 mar 08 198.2 jun 08 196.2 sep 08 195.2 14 oct 07 dec 08 198.3 mar 08 196.0 jun 08 193.3 sep 08 191.2 dec 08 189.0 in summary the latest update forecasts that the av uk hp will be about 8k lower than today in a year - yoy-4% (-7%real) since the last update (4/8) yoy hps have dropped 4k
  16. www.cantorspreadfair.com already priced in a 3% yoy fall (6% real terms)
  17. IF this is true then it is only right that some credibility is given to it as (VI or not) it is the leading property website and as a forward looking indicator it has value by the way it looks at properties comming onto the market in the last month and nothing else. These figures are no doubt caused by Hips noise adversley affecting the mix of properties - as relatively more 4 beds come onto the market this month than last and the supply of smaller three beds falls away. In fairness they did give some factual analysis for septembers fall so they should do the same for this months rise((mmm). as the 3 bed numbers pick up again we should see some decent falls. the time on the market indicator and stock levels will be interesting. i believe what i see with my eyes daily prices are being cut - (plymouth)
  18. 6x loans capped the market at q2 07 prices - 3.5x ...........mmm honey
  19. dont be cruel - just let her burn in her ignorance
  20. this weeks homeseeker i have not seen so many "new price" "reduced" "quick sale" ever - even more than q4 04 q1 05 - good times ahead me thinks green army!!
  21. nice one PP - i am salivating in anticipation of your link
  22. massive - GC2 might get mainstream alot quicker than we hoped for - primetime too - remember though GC2 will only be official when the C word appears on the front of the sun though
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