Quiet Guy

This guy is definitely a golf bug but I find his blog quite sane so this report caught my attention: http://www.sovereignman.com/finance/how-a-chinese-stock-and-property-bubble-will-affect-gold-prices/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RK05ppmyPQw (10:58) I've been keeping an eye on this guys YouTube videos on and off for a while; he seems to have a very down to earth perspective on the current financial crisis and his views about gold prices and currencies are very bearish. His web site is worth a look to: http://www.berninger.de/

I have decided to post an article I found on the blog, posted by Drewster, about possible psychological benefits of handling money. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science...themselves.html Of course, the study was concerned with fiat cash but I wondered if there might be a similar effect on people who handle gold? The impression I get from the forum is that a substantial number of us hold physical gold. I keep most of mine squirreled away somewhere hard to get at but I do have a small collection of sovereigns that I keep accessible. It never ceases to amaze me that my little collection of sovereigns ranging from 1857 to 2009 have roughly the same value (ignoring numismatic issues.) Do any other forum contributors keep gold at hand and have you considered that it might give you some psychological benefit?

Right. Let me start off by saying that this is not a cheap dig at Gordon Brown but an attempt to draw your attention to a nasty rumour with very unpleasant implications. This is not to be taken as politically motivated slanderous fun. I have no way of deciding whether or not this rumour is true but it is so awful that I felt compelled to put it on HPC: http://bastardoldholborn.blogspot.com/2009...-of-europe.html If this rumour turns out to be correct, it is very worrying news - the man with the primary responsibility for running our country is not fit for purpose and should be pensioned off immediately for his own good and the best interests of this country.

Good luck with your silver but I suspect that you'll have to be patient to see a good return. My understanding is that silver is primarily an industrial metal and won't really take off until industrial demand rises above production levels - that could be many years away judging by current conditions. Gold, on the other hand, is money and will react immediately to devaluation of the dollar or pound or possibly just a loss of confidence in government. I'm sure you're right about silver not being confiscated but I doubt that gold physically possessed will be either. Regarding QE, you are entering the great deflation vs inflation debate. Best not to go there! I suspect that a dollar crisis will be more important in the forseeable future.

I looked into using silver as an investment (bullion not numismatic ) some months ago and I did not like what I saw. The markup between the silver spot price and articles sold is awful, partly due to VAT. Best coin I can find at this time appears to be the Silver Philharmonic sold by CoinInvestDirect.com (http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a=11&id=297) For bullion, consider CoinInvestDirect (http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a=10&id=167) and Goldline (http://www.goldline.co.uk/investmentBarsPage.page) There is another interesting silver bullion supplier called Silverbase but I can't find any feedback about them so I'm a bit wary (http://www.silverbase.co.uk/16280.html) Basically, I suspect the overheads on traditional UK coins are mainly due to collectors and hence should be avoided unless you are genuinely interested in that field and know what you're doing.

Jim Sinclair being interviewed on the Summit Business News Channel http://www.summit.co.za/video/face2face/20090710 (taken from Jim Sinclair's blog, http://jsmineset.com/) Jim Sinclair says: He offered a $1,000,000 wager that gold will rise to $1,650 by Jan 14 2011 Gold's price is inveresly related to the value of the dollar Serious inflation (hence a rise in gold prices) will be caused by a 'currency event' between Jan 2011 to June 2011 Between 4th to 7th November 2009, there will probably be a confidence crisis in the dollar (why so specfic??) Gold is a currency, not a commodity, hence gold mines will be able to print money. Historically, gold has been a 'superb' currency. People will turn to gold when the politicians 'screw up' Cautious about forecasting beyond 2012 but does not expect gold to fall back again Preferences for holding gold: 1st physical possession 2nd mining company with significant finance and other resources to operate reliably 3rd South African ETF (better than London or New York ETFs according to Jim)

So is this a good sign or a bad for the gold bulls? You could interpret this as a sign of gold's rising importance with all the money printing that has gone on or take the contrarian view that gold is the new bubble.

A curious story that illustrates the folly of printing a face value on precious metal coins: http://www.thelocal.de/national/20090701-20315.html

A rather curious article that says: "Jim Sinclair of jsmineset.com, a legendary gold trader, reported that some of his contacts have told him that, when they request to withdraw their 100oz. bars from the Comex depositories, they have not received the proper indicted bars. They received a bar, but not one with the correct serial number or weight." http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-lewis...d_b_216896.html Not sure what to make of this but it would be 'good' news for the goldbugs if it turns out to be true. Opinions, anybody?

I'm not really sure where to put this in the forum so please forgive me if you think it's a bit out of place. http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archive...d-Rantings.html I think it's fair to say that Denninger does not habitually entertain conspiracy theories so I thought this might be worth highlighting. If Denninger has guessed correctly (and that's a big if) then it might not hurt to have a stash of cash and of course a pandemic virus is unlikely to be good news for the economy.

I don't think it makes any sense to describe somebody who wants to make money as immoral. It is immoral that some of the most powerful people in our country (MPs and Lords) have created a tax system that benefits property owners at the expense of non-owners. It is immoral to create a housing bubble due to inappropriate monetary policy. It is immoral to punish savers in order to benefit those who took on too much debt. Also, it must be said that some BTLers seem to make a point of rubbing our noses in it - money makes some people crass and vulgar e.g. http://www.propertyinvestmentproject.co.uk...ng-my-mortgage/ P.S. The pension thing is a bit of a distraction. If I lose money on an investment does that make it right for me to do something immoral to recoup my losses?

Pappie, Sorry, somehow I managed to miss the fact that you clearly stated you are thinking of buying silver - not gold. I must be turning into a goldbug Regarding your comment that silver can shoot up any time, my understanding is that speculators anticipate silver demand rising sharply due to industrial demand. Most silver that has been mined has been used aready for manufacturing and is gone. Implicitly, silver will really take off when industrial demand exceeds supply and that might be a while yet considering that we're in a global recession. Regarding CGT, the markup on silver legal tender coins is horrendous so I don't see any practical way to avoid CGT in the UK. Bullionvault say that they offer to deal in silver as well soon but I'm unsure how this works w.r.t. tax: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aXhlaFn8dzbQ

I'm also a newbie in investments generally but I'll give you my thoughts. Firstly, my understanding is that if you buy legal tender (Sovereigns or Britannias) then CGT does not apply so perhaps these are worth considering before poing to Switzerland? http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk/capitalgainstax.html You haven't given any indication of why you want gold or how long you intend to keep it. The premiums for gold coins can be very high hence it's impossible to make any money that way if you don't intend to hold them for the long term. The other thing you will have to consider very carefully is how you are going to store the coins. A Swiss bank vault does have some attractions but you will have to pay storage fees to the bank plus travel costs to access your gold - perhaps bullionvault or the Perth Mint Certification program is a cheaper and more effective way if you are determined to keep your gold abroad? http://www.bullionvault.com/ http://www.perthmint.com.au/investment_certificate.aspx Incidentally, I'd be wary of putting gold in a UK safety deposit box. http://nestmannblog.sovereignsociety.com/2...our-safety.html Lastly, you may do well to hold off any purchases for a few months. There seems to be some sort of cycle in gold price changes. Have a look at the five year chart at: http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/charts.htm?GBP See the way gold rose from July 05 to May 06 slumped from May 06 to October 07 rose from October 07 to March 08 slumped from March 08 to October 08 rose from October 08 to February 08 slumped from February 08 onwards i.e. currently on downward trend. some people seem to think that gold will take off again later this year. Obviously, you should have a look at the "FAQ for Newbie Gold/Silverbugs" thread as well.

Thanks to everybody who responded to my question about coininvest and fax numbers. @dr ray "Hatton Garden Metals" Looks worth knowing about. Thanks for the tip.

Sorry, this is off topic to the post but I would be interested to hear any opinions about the following question: I entered the user account registration page for coininvestdirect and was surprised to see that you must supply a fax number to register with them!? Is it really necessary to have access to a fax just to buy stuff from these people?

Wow. The old saying: "Where there's muck there's brass" needs updating perhaps!

Sorry. Thanks for point that out endgame. It appears to be one of those "if it's too good to be true ..." situations. As you can see, I'm not a regular on the forums.

Today, I came across a special offer for buying a collection of british coins from the Royal Mint. The offer is on page 41 of The Times, Saturday 31st January headed "People turn to gold to beat the banking system woes." After a preamble about gold coins, the offer reads: "you can apply to buy these one of these coins as you introuction to the collection "Sovereign: era of gold, age of Empire" for just £139, which is a £160 saving on our regular release price. This coin could be the starting point for building a fine collection of british Sovereigns that both you and family will be justifyably proud of. If you application is successful you will automatically be sent further gold sovereign coins at approximately monthly intervals without obligation, direct from The London Mint Office. There is a strict limit of one coin at this price per household - see below for details of how to apply." Judging by their quoted discount, they are talking about proof coins, not bullion. As far as I can see, there is nothing to stop you buying a cheap sovereign then declining the rest if you want. The print says that you can also register you interest online at http://www.londonmintoffice.org/Times however, I cannot find the offer on their site. The offer closes on 7th February and is only open to households on the UK mainland. They may run some sort of credit check on you. The fact that there is nothing on the website is a bit odd but if you are interested and can get your hands on a copy of the Times or 31st January, this might be worth a look.