Jadoube Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 I'd appreciate thoughts on this one from the Edinburgh watchers. I've just been asked if I'd like to move to work in our Edinburgh office in 9 months time. In theory I'd quite like to make the move but see practical problems. Property bee shows asking prices in my part of Hampshire are dropping (and still not being taken). The local EA's window is jammed full of rentals. However as far as I can see equivalent houses in Edinburgh, and all commutable points out to Stirling have not shown anything like the same propensity to drop in price. So my question. In 9 months time I'm sure Hampshire will have suffered significant price drops. (Certainly if I need to sell to move.) Will Scotland still be lagging well behind - or is there realistic chances of a rapid fall in Scotland within that time frame? How I judge that may, in part, determine whether I accept the move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roblpm Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Jadoube Welcome to the surreal world of Edinburgh property prices! I think in 9 months you will be OK actually. Nothing is shifting here at all, EAs are all going bust and laying off staff. Sooner or later you will be able to pick up a bargain. We are however a bit behind the curve, how about renting up here for a bit after you sell down South? Might have 10 years to choose your ideal house befor the prices start picking up again! We are renting for about 4% pa of the purchase price! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jadoube Posted October 10, 2008 Author Share Posted October 10, 2008 JadoubeWelcome to the surreal world of Edinburgh property prices! I think in 9 months you will be OK actually. Nothing is shifting here at all, EAs are all going bust and laying off staff. Sooner or later you will be able to pick up a bargain. We are however a bit behind the curve, how about renting up here for a bit after you sell down South? Might have 10 years to choose your ideal house befor the prices start picking up again! We are renting for about 4% pa of the purchase price! Trying to get er indoors to accept idea of renting. I currently have something of the order of 70% equity so the mortgage is, relatively speaking, low. I suspect less then rent might be - I'll have to investigate that. The saving as prices continued to fall would be worthwhile. I've been rather surprised at prices overall, its at least 10 years since I last bothered to check them out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Property in Edinburgh is down about 10-15% already across the board. According to the ESPC it is about 8% IIRC. From peak it is well over 10%. The only reason it is not more is because of the denial in Edinburgh. It will all hit home soon. Depends of course if you want to sell up down south and then buy up here. Prices up here are falling just as much as down south. In fact in the latest Halifax figures Scotland had actually taken over the UK in average falls. Plenty of rentals up here too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jadoube Posted October 10, 2008 Author Share Posted October 10, 2008 Property in Edinburgh is down about 10-15% already across the board.According to the ESPC it is about 8% IIRC. From peak it is well over 10%. The only reason it is not more is because of the denial in Edinburgh. It will all hit home soon. Depends of course if you want to sell up down south and then buy up here. Prices up here are falling just as much as down south. In fact in the latest Halifax figures Scotland had actually taken over the UK in average falls. Plenty of rentals up here too. Thanks, good to know. Property bee appeared to be suggesting reductions were more likely (and larger) where I am than where I was looking. Don't want to have two properties on the go simultaneously so I'll need to sell up in Hants first, then see what I can buy up in the Edinburgh region. That might involve a period renting in-between but not to the extent of waiting trying to pick the bottom of the market to buy. We're not that far from retirement so if the office location were on the west coast then I'd be aiming for this to be the last house we'd ever move into. (Wife wants to 'go home'.) I was worrying the binding offers system in Scotland that I read about might make the move less flexible than a move within the English system would be be. (Although Edinburgh's my home town I've never bought in Scotland so its new to me.) I'm hoping the trend towards fixed prices could mean its possible to sell in hants and buy in Edinbugh simultaneously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 Jadoube I have attached some figures for you below. These are from the ESPC who cover most sales in the Edinburgh Region. Also you can see the land registry figures from Edinburgh. Main points: - The usual boom from Q1 to Q2 has failed. Sales numbers have collapsed. YOY falls are starting to show through. Land Registry are seriously lagging. However when we get the Q3 figures (Not even got Q2 yet !! ) these will be compard to the 248 figures from 2007 . YOY falls could be over 20%. Hope this helps. If you are buying in Edinburgh there are lots to choose from. MANY people are renting their houses out as EA's seem to think this will all blow over. Total properties for sale is starting to fall a small amount but still loads out there available. Still a fair bit of denial around here but gradually realism is setting in. Will take another 6-12 months i think before everyone accepts what is happening. Most homes are on Fixed Price. This is similar to English system. Offer under what they ask for. As for the binding agreement I am not an expert on that. However I know you can put in plenty of caveats etc.. to cover yourself - same as any legally binding agreement I imagine. Offer Subject to survey, mortgage agreement, weather being pleasant....etc.. If you can sell your place it may be worth taking advantage of those who are 'Just renting it out instead'. These people plan to sell eventually. Why don't you consider renting the place for a while if you find a place you like ? 'Try before you buy' as they say. Most big family homes (If that is what you are looking for) that are for rent in Edinburgh are in this situation. Just ask the EA and they will usually let you know the score. Put your cash somewhere very safe. Find a nice rented home that the owners eventually want to sell. Rent it out and try it for a year. Seller finally realises what is happening in the market and gets desperate to sell. You make them a nice low offer to save them any hassle. Seeing as you live there already... Best case scenario. However with the number of homes out there just now in this situation best chance ever of it working. Good luck. ESPC_Figures.bmp ESPC_price_history.bmp ESPC_Figures.bmp ESPC_price_history.bmp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jadoube Posted October 11, 2008 Author Share Posted October 11, 2008 Jadoube I have attached some figures for you below. These are from the ESPC who cover most sales in the Edinburgh Region. Also you can see the land registry figures from Edinburgh. ccc, thanks thats really useful stuff, and advice. Now all I have to do is sell down here, make sure my employers don't change their mind, and I'm on my way home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roblpm Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 (edited) ccc, nice figures. What strikes me is the moronic attititude of people in Edinburgh that even after the Northern Rock debacle and the start of the credit crunch a year ago they were insisting that this wouldn't affect edinburgh. The transaction figures for Q1 2008 are astonishingly high. So we are a year behind down South. The fear is kicking in now though!! Edited October 11, 2008 by roblpm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest An Bearin Bui Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 ccc, nice figures.What strikes me is the moronic attititude of people in Edinburgh that even after the Northern Rock debacle and the start of the credit crunch a year ago they were insisting that this wouldn't affect edinburgh. The transaction figures for Q1 2008 are astonishingly high. So we are a year behind down South. The fear is kicking in now though!! Yes, I'm coming to the same conclusion. Initially I thought Edinburgh would only have a six months lag but it's looking like there is some very deep denial out there so it'll be Spring 2009 before people here start to get real and start accepting lower offers. Flats are actually falling a bit but there are very few houses on the market. OH and I were talking about this last night and came to the conclusion that the city of Edinburgh itself is dominated by an older population who are often mortgage free so even if they are selling up, they're not forced sellers and so can sit around denying reality at their leisure. If you look at Fife, West Lothian and East Lothian, however, there are some cheaper houses coming up for sale now. My guess is that more marginal buyers who were stretching their finances were buying here at the peak and are now feeling the pinch. For Edinburgh city itself though, it just seems there are a lot of very old, very rich people living here! Couple that with Edinburgh estate agents' complete psychological inability to process the reality of price falls and or of the fact that transactions are key to their business and we have a stand-off situation... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 Couple that with Edinburgh estate agents' complete psychological inability to process the reality of price falls and or of the fact that transactions are key to their business and we have a stand-off situation... A couple of days ago the Evening News claimed that "At least 75 jobs have gone in property solicitors in the city as the housing market slows". If that carries on they're going to have to wake up to reality real soon or it'll be too late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeroSumGame Posted October 13, 2008 Share Posted October 13, 2008 A couple of days ago the Evening News claimed that "At least 75 jobs have gone in property solicitors in the city as the housing market slows". If that carries on they're going to have to wake up to reality real soon or it'll be too late. I would have thought that with all the mularky going on at the 2 formerly big banks up there, a fair number of younger people will be bricking it. Reality *must* now be approaching like a bullet train OP be very alert to simultaneous sale and purchase across the border. As you rightly note HP are dropping in Hampshire. Don't want to get caught between two stools on the way home do we ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jadoube Posted October 29, 2008 Author Share Posted October 29, 2008 JadoubeWelcome to the surreal world of Edinburgh property prices! I think in 9 months you will be OK actually. Nothing is shifting here at all, EAs are all going bust and laying off staff. Sooner or later you will be able to pick up a bargain. We are however a bit behind the curve, how about renting up here for a bit after you sell down South? Might have 10 years to choose your ideal house befor the prices start picking up again! We are renting for about 4% pa of the purchase price! Had the EA round tonight. Quite direct and sensible (fan of property snake). Reckons he can sell if we're happy to accpet 25% off peak. (I am, peak was higher than I'd ever thought so 25% off is more than I was expecting. ) He also strongly advised renting in Edinburgh - so her indoors is now sold on the idea. OTOH rent will be a fair bit more then the current mortgage due to having a good deal of equity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted October 30, 2008 Share Posted October 30, 2008 Had the EA round tonight. Quite direct and sensible (fan of property snake). Reckons he can sell if we're happy to accpet 25% off peak. (I am, peak was higher than I'd ever thought so 25% off is more than I was expecting. ) He also strongly advised renting in Edinburgh - so her indoors is now sold on the idea.OTOH rent will be a fair bit more then the current mortgage due to having a good deal of equity. Good work !! BTW as for renting in Edinburgh be aware that there are a lot of properties out there. Haggling is most certainly the name of the game. Got 200 a month of the place I am in just now. Of course beware that many will be in the 'rent it out instead' brigade. Not quite as stable as a long term landlord. However you will probably be able to haggle a lot better. Just don't be putting down too much in advance as you are not covered in case they get repossessed etc.... Ask lost of questions and you should be fine. Good luck !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jadoube Posted October 30, 2008 Author Share Posted October 30, 2008 Good work !!BTW as for renting in Edinburgh be aware that there are a lot of properties out there. Haggling is most certainly the name of the game. Got 200 a month of the place I am in just now. Of course beware that many will be in the 'rent it out instead' brigade. Not quite as stable as a long term landlord. However you will probably be able to haggle a lot better. Just don't be putting down too much in advance as you are not covered in case they get repossessed etc.... Ask lost of questions and you should be fine. Good luck !! Bl@@dy hell. An offer on the first viewing - a little less than 5% off asking price. Short chain to cash buyer, each link through the same EA The EA had this one up his sleeve methinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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