Shotoflight Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Talking things up doesn't necessarily clarify things - look at the nonsense EAs spout (Robbo was one, I believe). Most people can see through the pink and fluffy version. More complete extract from FM. Comments will follow no doubt and could be of interest. “the relentlessly negative portrayal of our economy by some economists & media commentators” http://sluggerotoole.com/2012/02/24/the-relentlessly-negative-portrayal-of-our-economy-by-some-economists-media-commentators/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 On a lighter note, another monkey picks the bottom http://purpleslinky.com/offbeat/tattoo-humor-mooning-belly-buttons/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Soaring oil prices will dwarf the Greek drama http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/9105796/Soaring-oil-prices-will-dwarf-the-Greek-drama.html Brent crude hit a nine-month high on Friday, breaking through $125 (£79) a barrel. While the black stuff remains $24 below the all-time nominal peak of July 2008, it is now above those levels in terms of both sterling and the euro. Oil prices are up 14pc since the start of the year. That's obviously bad news for the big Western energy-importers, the UK included, that are struggling to generate sustainable economic recovery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 KABOOM! Osborne: UK has run out of money The Government 'has run out of money' and cannot afford debt-fuelled tax cuts or extra spending, George Osborne has admitted. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9107485/Osborne-UK-has-run-out-of-money.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 (edited) So confidence adds half a % to GDP. Does bullsh*tting by EAs and politicians locally count? a sort of Keep Calm, Carry On! UK ONS figures show confidence is the key to UK growth How much is confidence worth? Half a point of GDP, it seems, if the Office for National Statistics is anything to go by. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/richardfletcher/9104691/ONS-figures-show-confidence-is-the-key-to-UK-growth.html That's what the collapse in business investment in the final three months of last year shaved off growth, as the escalation in the eurozone crisis spooked bosses. Companies may be sitting on a £70bn warchest, but as long as the outlook is gloomy, they will be sitting on their hands as well. The ONS figures showed just why George Osborne and David Cameron repeat ad nauseam that the biggest boost to the UK economy would be a resolution of the euro problems. Before the crisis shifted up a gear in the second half of the 2011, business investment in jobs and new projects had started to pick up. Had companies simply spent the same in the final three months of the year as the preceding three months, growth in the final quarter would been a respectable 0.3pc. Instead, the UK shrank 0.2pc. Evaporating confidence doesn't just hit hard, it hits quickly. The good news, though, is that it works both ways. If confidence returns, the economy ought to enjoy a sharp bounce from business investment. And the signs have been encouraging since the European Central Bank removed the risk of a second financial crisis with the Draghi bazooka in December. The Chancellor will be hoping desperately it does return. His official growth forecasts this year rely almost entirely on a massive lift from the private sector. Of the 0.7pc the Office for Budget Responsibility expects, 0.6pc comes from business investment. Kick that away and the Chancellor won't just be sitting down, he'll be flat on his back. Edited February 26, 2012 by Shotoflight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Falling house prices = agony! (we don't even get a mention - must try harder) Europe in housing market agony, says Rics http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17191691 Europe is in the midst of "prolonged agony" of housing market decline with no obvious end in sight, a report by surveyors has claimed. The downturn began five years ago, so had lasted longer than a typical 12 or 18-month dip, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said. The Irish Republic and Spain saw house price falls of 17% and 10% respectively in 2011, compared with 2010 The Rics European Housing Review suggested that the future of the continent's housing market depended on the scale of the economic downturn. The future for the housing market would be "grim" if the eurozone crisis remained unresolved or came to a "painful conclusion", it warned. Prices in the Irish Republic had already fallen by 50% from their peak, the report said, with a host of new homes having been built before prices crashed. "Not only did Ireland, Spain and Cyprus all have substantial price booms prior to their crashes, but they also had huge building booms as well," the report said. "Each one in consequence is still suffering from severe new supply overhangs." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ballymena construction firm Patton to cut 50 jobs http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17194453 One of Ballymena's leading employers - construction company the Patton Group - has confirmed it is shedding staff. It is understood a total of around 50 jobs will be lost when the current wave of lay-offs has been completed. Patton has a turnover of about £160m and until recently employed around 420 staff. Its most recent set of accounts show it reported an annual pre-tax loss of more than £10m. Given the impact of the downturn, especially in construction, it has been attempting to reduce costs across a number of areas. The company confirmed some staff have recently been made redundant and others are expected to lose their jobs, but declined to say how many. Since the start of the year, it is understood about 25 workers have been laid off and another 25 are likely to go soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ballymena construction firm Patton to cut 50 jobs http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17194453 One of Ballymena's leading employers - construction company the Patton Group - has confirmed it is shedding staff. It is understood a total of around 50 jobs will be lost when the current wave of lay-offs has been completed. Patton has a turnover of about £160m and until recently employed around 420 staff. Its most recent set of accounts show it reported an annual pre-tax loss of more than £10m. Given the impact of the downturn, especially in construction, it has been attempting to reduce costs across a number of areas. The company confirmed some staff have recently been made redundant and others are expected to lose their jobs, but declined to say how many. Since the start of the year, it is understood about 25 workers have been laid off and another 25 are likely to go soon. Borrowed big during and leading up to the boom. We are going to see lots more of the same from this company IMO. Land bank write-downs must be killing them. Gone are the days when a few million was chucked at people for their gardens. I expected Ballymena Borough Council to help bail them out - obviously they are just as skint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 (edited) I am only sorry that the management's imprudent land bank buying has resulted in men paid off. As is always the case - The directors lose £10 million and still take a £130,000 salary. 50 tradesmen lose their livelihoods. GREED. Edited February 28, 2012 by 2buyornot2buy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 (edited) Our USP (unique selling point). 14 years after deal NI 'still very divided' new report suggests http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17198481 paramilitarism remains an active threat and Northern Ireland society is still very divided in terms of schools and housing, We have seen interesting experiments in shared housing and shared education but 92.5% of school enrolments are still in schools that are perceived to be for one community only and 90% of social housing is for single identity communities," he said Peace walls have increased from 22 when the agreement was signed to a current total of 48 Over one third (36.2%) of the economically inactive have no educational qualifications, compared with 12.1% of those in employment … Northern Ireland has the highest percentage of adults of working age in the UK with no educational qualifications: 20%, compared with 10% of the UK as a whole Only 4% of the NI workforce is employed in the knowledge economy, one of the lowest rates in the UK. The reality is that, despite the claims made about the excellence of Northern Ireland’s education system, the workforce is under-qualified. Given its other disadvantages, Northern Ireland needs not just to equal but to outdistance UK averages to secure inward investment. One of the starkest conclusions under the equality dimension is that poverty is increasing. Since 1987, Northern Ireland and the six border counties of the Republic have been the beneficiaries of an extraordinary and unprecedented funding package, which has amounted in total to almost £2.5 billion – on average, almost £100 million a year. Nowhere in the world has enjoyed such largesse in relation to population size. There is no strategy for reconciliation No solution has been found for dealing with the past Youth unemployment is potentially destabilising A World Bank report (2011) into urban violence across the globe observes that one constant in all conflict situations is youth unemployment. The fact that youth unemployment in Northern Ireland has risen to 19.1% in 2011 is cause for concern, particularly since there is no expectation of an uplift that might resolve the situation. http://www.community-relations.org.uk/about-us/press-releases/item/221/peace-monitoring-report/ Edited February 29, 2012 by Shotoflight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Go For It’ has gone http://www.thedetail.tv/issues/67/no-go-for-it/%E2%80%98go-for-it%E2%80%99-has-gone THE programme set up to deliver a lifeline to Northern Ireland’s struggling entrepreneurs has been inactive for almost six months after becoming embroiled in a legal dispute over who should run it. The Detail can also reveal that Invest NI have spent over £250,000 on advertising The Go For It programme since September – which is when the scheme stopped being fully functional. The business start up scheme had been hailed as one of its biggest success stories, providing help and advice to budding entrepreneurs under the banner of the ‘Start a Business Programme’ However a challenge over the legitimacy of the tendering process means the Go For It programme has been dragged into a legal quagmire that has effectively rendered it inoperable. With the programme now in limbo and legal costs growing by the day, one of Northern Ireland’s most popular business initiatives has been left impotent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinbin Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 KABOOM! Osborne: UK has run out of money The Government 'has run out of money' and cannot afford debt-fuelled tax cuts or extra spending, George Osborne has admitted. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9107485/Osborne-UK-has-run-out-of-money.html Sounds like a familiar story ... if only they could borrow some more money then everything would be alright Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Sounds like a familiar story ... if only they could borrow some more money then everything would be alright No need to borrow. £325 Billion. QE. Sorted. Just tap in numbers on a computer. And hit resend on the inflation letter every month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul65 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Richard Ramsey, Ulster Bank’s Chief Economist gave a guest lecture recently. It was entitled: 2012 – The Year of the Dragon: Will we get caught in the fire? The lecture provided an overview of what's happening within financial markets and various economies and gave an assessment of the economic challenges faced at a global, international, national and regional level. I thought the presentation would be worth sharing: You will find it at: http://www.business.ulster.ac.uk/courses/BusinessManagement/210212Presentation.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 (edited) Richard Ramsey, Ulster Bank’s Chief Economist gave a guest lecture recently. It was entitled: 2012 – The Year of the Dragon: Will we get caught in the fire? The lecture provided an overview of what's happening within financial markets and various economies and gave an assessment of the economic challenges faced at a global, international, national and regional level. I thought the presentation would be worth sharing: You will find it at: http://www.business.ulster.ac.uk/courses/BusinessManagement/210212Presentation.pdf A nice package encapsulating much of what is highlighted on these boards, and more. I wouldn't quibble with too much of what he says as it is mainly factual/realistic and well researched. Certainly more readable than the rose tinted confident noises from the Northern, but then the Ulster is in a league of its own re property and land lending. The remarkable improvement in housing affordability assertion depends on where your journey starts - bubble or pre bubble. Look a little further at cuts, interest rates average incomes and prices and it starts to unravel a bit. Water charges certainly are low hanging melons, as someone once said, but of course these charges are "politically charged" and would be unpalatable for property owners whom SF seem to be courting, presumably to widen their appeal. DUP would go for it in the blink of an eye. And I personally don't think the argument for corporation tax has been made, certainly not for FDI which is given (perhaps selectively) as its Raison D'etre. Personally I think there is a hidden agenda to give some local firms an 'unfair' lift on the coat tails of this policy in spite of what could be very painful hits - EU competition laws, block grant reduction, legal challenges eg Scotland, crowding out of other SMEs. Again SF may see some political significance in harmonising it with ROI without thinking through any downside. Others probably just like the fact of having it devolved = more power. A simple cost benefit analysis would be useful - there is too much talk of the potential or expected 'benefit' and not enough of the actual holistic cost (not just financial). I do like graphs - eg the petrol price, wages, inflation on necessities and upcoming expenditure cuts which show the real challenges and changes/impact that a written article has difficulty in transmitting. One last thing. When looking ahead no one has perfect foresight and this past decade has shown there is always an X factor - something unexpected. Arab spring, oil shock, bust banks, political change, Eurozone, debt. Something always comes along to upset the applecart and rarely in a good way. 'Best case' scenario planning needs to take account of this because, going on past form, it is almost certainly 'baked into the cake'. At least if you know that, you can prepare for it - rather than spend 6.5 times your salary on a house with a 5% deposit. Hopefully Richard shares his research and findings with the wider public and doesn't just keep it for selective niche or academic audiences. Edited March 1, 2012 by Shotoflight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 (edited) Nice of them to highlight what was collected - not the write offs and arrears - we must have good news! Over £1bn of rates collected in Northern Ireland http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17226319 The total rate debt in Northern Ireland is currently £156m. According to the Audit Office report, LPS has estimated that some £33m of total debt, as of 31 March 2011, will probably not be recovered. In addition, £15.2m of debt considered irrecoverable was written off by LPS during the year. That compared to £10.2m written off in the previous year. It is expected this year's write-off will be higher at £20m. The Audit Office said its first audit opinion was qualified because LPS was unable to provide a "complete, accurate and up-to-date" property valuation listing upon which rates assessments are raised. On 31 March 2011, there were 24,501 domestic valuations and 3,031 non-domestic valuations to be processed and valued. These had increased to 25,694 and 3,358 respectively by 31 August 2011. The report recognised that LPS had significantly reduced the number of valuations cases to be processed over the past four years, particularly for domestic cases. On 31 March 2008, there were 50,332 domestic cases and 4,869 non-domestic cases in progress. Rates error and fraud 'loses £4.2m' http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/rates-error-and-fraud-loses-42m-16125223.html The amount of fraud or errors in housing benefit calculations for rates assessments in Northern Ireland has increased to £4.2 million, the audit office has said. Poor reporting from customers and gaps in the skills of staff were blamed for the increase, according to the report The level of fraud and error is equivalent to 11% of benefit paid. This compares to an estimated rate of 3% incurred by the Housing Executive on housing benefit, which it administers. The report said the LPS linked the increase to gaps in housing benefit skills and experience among staff, increased sample sizes from which the total estimates for fraud and error were drawn, and the fact that housing benefit for rates is not perceived as a benefit by customers who do not think that they have to report changes in the same way. Edited March 2, 2012 by Shotoflight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Maybe PJ could tell us if this is newsworthy? http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/merchant-hotel-owner-in-5m-refinancing-deal-16123525.html I would have thought £5 mil was nothing to Beannchor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Millions spent on Stormont hospitality http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17230872 It has been revealed that the NI Executive has spent almost four and a half million pounds over the last five years on hospitality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Town top of illegal cigarette table http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/town-top-of-illegal-cigarette-table-16126708.html Smokers in a Northern Ireland town were puffing more illegal cigarettes than anyone else in the UK at the end of last year, research has found. Two out of every three packs bought in Newtownabbey between October and December originated from the black market, according to the study. Lisburn ranked second in the UK-wide survey commissioned by tobacco manufacturer Philip Morris, with 43% of cigarettes consumed in the city coming from illicit sources. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 (edited) UK Economic indicators: UK house prices Where are Britain's house prices heading now? Last updated: 6 March 2012 It's the question on everyone's lips. To find the answer, we've hunted down what we believe are the best leading indicators for Britain's housing market. And for now, they mostly suggest that prices are heading for further falls. http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices The biggest threat to house prices – rising lending costs http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk/rising-lending-costs-threaten-uk-house-prices-21000 Halifax is raising its standard variable rate (SVR) to 3.99% from 3.5% on 1 May. That doesn’t sound like much. And in the big scheme of things it isn’t. It’s about £40 a month extra on a £150,000 repayment mortgage. According to thisismoney.co.uk, roughly 850,000 borrowers will see their payments rise. But Halifax isn’t the only one; Santander and RBS/Natwest have raised some of their rates too. And what’s significant here - for now at least - isn’t the amount of money we’re talking about. It’s the direction of the rate change. Well, this is where we have to remind ourselves that it’s not actually the Bank of England rate that matters when it comes to how much banks charge you to borrow money. Even with a rise in rates as small as this one, as Ed Stansfield of Capital Economics points out, “some reports suggest that as many as one-in-six borrowers regularly have problems meeting their… payments. So for some this could be the final straw especially if… unemployment continues to rise.” In 2011 there were just over 36,000 repossessions, the lowest level since 2007. I suspect that will start to rise again in 2012. As Stansfield puts it, “expect further house price falls this year.” Edited March 6, 2012 by Shotoflight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 NICVA fears welfare reform will hit poor hardest http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17260581 The body which represents the voluntary sector has warned that the government's welfare reform bill will take £500m a year out of the NI economy. Changes to Disability Living Allowance (DLA) are expected to have the biggest impact on people in Northern Ireland. BBC NI Westminster reporter Stephen Walker said the British government felt the payments had grown too large and the money could be better targeted. "People of working age who get DLA will instead get a personal independence payment. The plan is from next year those who get DLA will be assessed to see if they qualify," he said. "In Northern Ireland, one in 10 of our population are on DLA so you can get an indication as to why the government feel this is so important." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Royal Exchange developer re-submits hotel plan http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17256323 The plans for the development include more than 200 apartments, a hotel, an arts centre, car parks and retail units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 (edited) Our "Rolls Royce" education system Most Northern Ireland schools face difficulties in key areas Eighty-four per cent of secondary schools in NI and nearly 50% of primary schools are experiencing difficulties in three key areas. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17272175 Three areas were examined - quality of education, the numbers who attend, and the school's finances. In the primary sector, just under half of all schools are currently experiencing difficulties in at least one category. In secondary schools the figure is much higher at 84%. In the grammar sector the figure is 35% . When he launched the audit last year, Education Minister John O'Dowd said some schools may have to close. Mr O'Dowd said there were too many empty places - up to 85,000. He told the assembly this equated to more than 150 empty schools Northern Ireland schools league tables - GCSEs http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/education/northern-ireland-schools-league-tables-gcses-16126495.html The majority of pupils in more than half of Northern Ireland’s schools are failing to achieve Government targets of five good GCSEs, according to new data GCSE percentage of pupils acheiving 5+ GCSEs including English and Maths at grades A*-C. Northern Ireland average is 60%. FSM percentage of pupils entitled to free school meals. Northern Ireland average is 16.7%. SEN Percentage of pupils with special educational needs. Northen Ireland average is 18%. Education Minister John O’Dowd said: “Unfortunately, international evidence shows us that we have an average education system, not the world-class one that many would believe. Edited March 6, 2012 by Shotoflight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Royal Exchange developer re-submits hotel plan http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17256323 The plans for the development include more than 200 apartments, a hotel, an arts centre, car parks and retail units. Will this turn out like the other mess of a building william ewart has opposite the Waterfront. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 A third of recent graduates in unskilled jobs http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/mar/06/recent-graduates-employmentlow-skill-jobs More than a third of recent graduates are employed in low-skilled jobs, official figures show. In the final quarter of 2011, 35.9% of those who had graduated from university in the previous six years were employed in lower-skilled occupations, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. This compares with 26.7%, or just over one in four, in 2001. In the same period, the number of recent graduates in the jobs market has grown by 438,000 to around 1.5 million in 2011. Jobs categorised as low-skilled by the ONS include hotel porters, waiters and bar staff, and retail assistants. Tanya de Grunwald, founder of the website Graduate Fog which campaigns for paid graduate internships, claimed the real picture could be even worse, because the Labour Force Survey does not take into account the high number of graduates doing unpaid placements without the guarantee of a salaried job afterwards. "We must ask whether it is right that schools, politicians and universities are still urging so many young people to do a degree, when many will later discover it was not a wise investment for them," said De Grunwald, who estimates that around 250,000 graduates every year undertake unpaid internships. There is growing evidence that unpaid internships no longer lead to paid jobs and that now, they are actually replacing them." The figures show how all UK regions have experienced growth in the graduate population over the last decade. London has the highest concentration, with 49% of the population of the capital having studied for a degree, up 15% since 2011. Scotland has the next highest proportion of graduates (40%), followed by the south-east (39%). At the other end of the scale, less than 30% of those living in Northern Ireland, Yorkshire and Humberside and the West Midlands are graduates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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