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Topher Bear

I Told You So!

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Hiya,

I posted back in November that I thought we would have one more year growth, followed by crash in October.

Looks like I was right. Big Boys don't seem to be able to stop this one this time!!

Its a little early, but I reckon they will try and keep things afloat with moderate success for another month or so, then come October. 1929 will look like a walk in the park!

The debt bubble will burst in a year or two after that, and a great depression will be upon us. Houses will have fallen 50% or more within 4 years.

Now I have one question for you guys before I goon holiday:

How in the H*ll did we get it so wrong 4 years ago!! How on earth did it keep going for so long. This is an important question that we must answer, so as to avoid getting it wrong again in the future. I don't want to jump too soon next time!

Crash helmets at the ready!

Topher Bear

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but but...you live in Melksham, you could buy a gaff for 150K
:lol::lol:

Topher, the sun shines on a dog's **** every now and then :lol:

Seriously though, I agree, the time had to come eventually. With regards to the fallout being on the scale of 1929, I cant see it happening - I dont want to sound like avery multi-property owner in the land, but surely its different this time? Global markets etc, for the problem to be sever, the whole world needs to be affected.

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:lol::lol:

Topher, the sun shines on a dog's **** every now and then :lol:

Seriously though, I agree, the time had to come eventually. With regards to the fallout being on the scale of 1929, I cant see it happening - I dont want to sound like avery multi-property owner in the land, but surely its different this time? Global markets etc, for the problem to be sever, the whole world needs to be affected.

urmm, it will be worse than 1929, the buildings are taller........................

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Now I have one question for you guys before I goon holiday:

How in the H*ll did we get it so wrong 4 years ago!! How on earth did it keep going for so long. This is an important question that we must answer, so as to avoid getting it wrong again in the future. I don't want to jump too soon next time!

Crash helmets at the ready!

Topher Bear

Go you! :)

No-one could predict how out of control the leverage these "dark pools of liquidity" would be allowed to build up. Other than that, bears were correct based on logical fundamentals. :P Easy credit allowed a massive speculative bubble to form.

For example l had no idea that companies like countrywide were able to keep the game going by exponentially increasing their lending so that their overall default %, although nominally climbing rapidly, was kept at a same level. Who would guess that just about everyone who should have been acting to manage the risk was too busy filling their own boots...banks and friends, ratings agencies, hedge funds, PE etc..

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someone had to be right given all the spouting. congratulations topher, come on down!. Whoops the box is empty sorry we'll have to try someone elses prediction. It hasn't happened yet so you can't say ' I told you so ' yet . SORRY!

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