Bear Goggles Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 - Realists and the UK property market haven't got together since the late '90s. So said the property experts gathered here beneath the Golden Balls for last night's MoneyWeek Roundtable. Ahead of a light tapas dinner and too much red wine, it proved the ultimate in house-price chit-chat. - Miles Shipside of Rightmove.co.uk attended, as did John Calverley - chief economist and strategist for American Express Bank here in London, and author of the excellent new tome 'Bubbles and How to Survive Them'. They were joined by Ed Mead of Douglas & Gordon's Chelsea branch...Richard Donnell from FPD Savills...plus Tim Price of Ansbacher Wealth. Referee for the evening was Merryn Somerset Web. - In the red corner, fighting for the property bears, our friend James Ferguson. In the blue corner, punching back on behalf of the perma-bulls...erm, nobody as it happened. Not even the estate agents! - "The market's come to accept the difficulty of achieving sales at the prices we've reached," explained Miles Shipside. "The key is what happens over the next 3-6 months. If estate agents are sensible, they'll reduce prices to maintain turnover ahead of the spring market." - But sensible estate agents might be in short supply, the Roundtable agreed. Their serried ranks have swollen three or four-fold over the last 9 years, was one guess. And as Miles Shipside noted, that means most of the agents now active have never seen a falling market before...much less tried to hit their sales targets while selling into a dip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bear Goggles Posted December 1, 2004 Author Share Posted December 1, 2004 From the horses mouth - so to speak! Intresting point about new estate agents with no experience of a downturn though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Baron Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 Interesting that the number of EAs has grown so substantially over the last nine years. If we now look at the reduction in mortgage applications, down 30%, one would assume that commission revenues across the EA industry would also have dropped by a similar perecentage. The larger EA chains, which probably sell the better type of properties, will probably survive this drop. However the smaller 'upstart EAs' selling the cheaper low-grade stuff will be intensely vulnerable, not only to diminishing revenues, but also because they are selling the type of houses which are the least saleable. I predict there will be a large number of EA failures in the next 3-4 months and if the much heralded 'Spring Recovery' doesn't materialise I suspect there will massive consequences for the industry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zzg113 Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 there will be a large number of EA failures in the next 3-4 months and if the much heralded 'Spring Recovery' doesn't materialise I suspect there will massive consequences for the industry. Long overdue. In a boom every man and his dog sets up an estate agency(just like everyone wants to be a property developer). Time to shake out the dross in the industry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pioneer31 Posted December 1, 2004 Share Posted December 1, 2004 I predict there will be a large number of EA failures in the next 3-4 months and if the much heralded 'Spring Recovery' doesn't materialise I suspect there will massive consequences for the industry.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> yep, a lot of overpaid people with no real skills or talent will have to go out and find a proper job like the rest of us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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