Housepricecrash Hive Mind To The Rescue

[Bland Unsight]

EC,

Yes, and No

The Stock market is very liquid, you can sell stock one minute and buy it back the next minute.

This causes the swings and crashes

Houses are very non liquid, difficult to sell, takes ages etc.

Also unlike stock, houses deteriorate and need repairs, so the housing market will always move slowly.

I would be fascinated to hear from a NI or ROI member of how the crash was played out there.

Of course if you could bankrupt a dog shit lender balls deep in BTL and all its borrowers, you could roll the whole lot into UKAR and sell the property to tenants at whatever prices the market would bear. That would give you some much greater liquidity than you'd ever seen before. For that we need:

Zombie banks balls deep in BTL

BTL borrowers with face-washing investments that go south if you use Basel 3 to put any pressure on their mortgage rate

A massive public administration structure to handle the process, something like UKAR, for example

[Bland Unsight]

FFS people - we are supposed to be helping the Property118 guys, not proposing how gutting them might be in fact the most amazing PRS Right to Buy imaginable...

Too much off-topic posting, though I will not be contacting the Moderators at this stage about either of you, I'm readying to shout "Troll!"

[Exiled Canadian]

FFS people - we are supposed to be helping the Property118 guys, not proposing how gutting them might be in fact the most amazing PRS Right to Buy imaginable...

Too much off-topic posting, though I will not be contacting the Moderators at this stage about either of you, I'm readying to shout "Troll!"

I raise an eyebrow in your general direction and will confine my market musings to more apposite threads.

[CHF]

That video is superb. Miles Shiteside perhaps? Whoever it is is obviously reading so Hi

[Bland Unsight]

I raise an eyebrow in your general direction and will confine my market musings to more apposite threads.

Every hpcer should divide all posting time in two halves thusly:

• Pulling threads off topic
• Complaining about thread having gone off topic

This is hpc, "

", (profanity at the link, joke at 1:28, worth waiting for, IMHO)

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

Every hpcer should divide all posting time in two halves thusly:

• Pulling threads off topic
• Complaining about thread having gone off topic

This is hpc, "

", (profanity at the link, joke at 1:28, worth waiting for, IMHO)

If 2 weeks of school holidays has taken you this far, August is going to be a doozie.

[Neverwhere]

If 2 weeks of school holidays has taken you this far, August is going to be a doozie.

[Exiled Canadian]

I've PMd you so I don't take the thread Off topic

Any chance you could cut me in now that we've been driven underground - please knock twice then whisper the secret password.

[Bland Unsight]

If 2 weeks of school holidays has taken you this far, August is going to be a doozie.

Get ready for fear - I've only been off for a week.

[Byron]

I am not too sure that rigidly sticking to topic is productive.

Free ranging thought introduces useful snippets of information.

This is how think tanks work.

All we need is someone to pull us back on topic every so often, or split the new discussion onto a new heading

[Bland Unsight]

I am not too sure that rigidly sticking to topic is productive.

Free ranging thought introduces useful snippets of information.

This is how think tanks work.

All we need is someone to pull us back on topic every so often, or split the new discussion onto a new heading

Agreed 100%.

I've been trying to think outside the box on how to solve their problem, and realise that if perhaps they put their fingers in a wood chipper it would improve matters, as a technically insolvent portfolio is as nothing compared realising that you are being bled out by a mangled stump that used to be the hand you signed mortgage contracts with, (immediately prior to a cardiac event induced by shock).

It's all about perspective.

Note: This is not investment advice, your blood pressure may rise (as you realise your financial predicament) or fall (as the chosen form of distraction bleeds you out).

Edited August 4, 2015 by bland unsight

[Byron]

Oh God,

Stop being hilarious, my Over-gloating is reaching the painful state, my stomach muscles will not take much more.

[Bland Unsight]

I swear to god, my abs are looking flatter. I was doing some laps at the pool this morning and the thought occurred to me that whilst the thing that Mark Alexander thinks is his business is just a flimsy and impermanent paper wealth the truth is that all the hpc traffic is giving him an advertising revenue stream and we are going there because he's (unwittingly) so unbelievably funny, hence if you disregard his narrative and look for the actual economic structures, he is a professional comedian.

My most recent over-gloating outburst was walking home from town and realising that there were people who had paid Mark Alexander real money to learn about this highly geared investment strategy. They would have been earnestly making notes and readying to give it laldy.

It occurs to me now to imagine an hpcer booking a session for a laugh and at the end of Mark's presentation, this exchange

hpcer: "So the plan is operate what walks and talks like a tax dodge, with no asset class diversification, being leveraged to the nuts in an insanely frothy market, remaining constantly technically insolvent, hoping that the asset price never stalls, interest rates never rise and the taxman never gets pissy, forever?"

Mark: "That's right"

[hpcer has near heart attack laughing]

hpcer: Thank you, that is the best £500 I have ever spent.

We could have a raffle, selling tickets at £10 a pop, sell fifty tickets, the winner gets a consultation with Mark, Mark gets £500. That's helping - hence I am on topic,

[Byron]

GONE WITH THE UNWIND

Chapter one

additional characters

Doctor Sybleigh an unqualified quack.

Mr. Dett Buster, a wealthy, devilishly handsome rogue with impeccable manners.

Hetti, Scarlett's maid

'It's not fair' wailed Scarlett O' Walson, tears running down her face.

She was seated at her dressing table on the first floor of 'Tara' her parents Beauguss and Morgana O'Walson's mansion set amongst rolling parkland in the deep south of the UK.

'Papa was giving me my first grown up ball, Mama told me that Mr Ashford Kent was going to ask Papa for my hand as soon as I turned 18, and now it's all turned to dust.'

'That Inspector Unsight might be an officer, but he is certainly no gentleman, he pointed a pistol at Papa. I didn't know that HMRC officers carried guns'

'They didn't used to.' said Hetti, 'But since the repossessions, the Health and Safety Executive said that they have to carry them as essential Industrial safety equipment, what with so many of them being injured and killed.'

'And he put Papa in handcuffs. Doesn't he realise that Papa owns more than 1000 houses, he treated him abominably like some common person, like he was a renter.'

'Well he said that your Daddy has not been paying all his taxes.' replied Hetti

' And what did he mean when he told Papa, 'Say Tar- rah to Tara ?'

' Guess he meant that he wasn't coming back, replied Hetti,

Scarlett said, 'I do declare that I feel quite faint, perhaps you better call Doctor Sybleigh.'

'Can't.' replied Hetti, 'He shot himself this morning when he got a letter from the Revenue.'

At that moment, the attention of both women was distracted by the sound of tyres on the long gravel drive that swept up to Tara from the road.

They saw a vintage Rolls Royce, immaculately restored without care for the cost.

The car stopped opposite the entrance and a man dressed in an old fashioned black frock coat and a grey top hat alighted. He glanced towards the house, saw the two women, touched the brim of his hat and gracefully bowed his head.

'

'My, oh my'. said Scarlett,

'I do declare that that is the most handsome man I have ever seen, who is he?'

'That,' said Hetti, 'Is Mr Dett Buster, the insolvency practitioner.'

follow the exciting tale of 'Gone with Unwind' in our next edition.

[Neverwhere]

Awesome

[Assume The Opposite]

Like fight club?

The first rule of BTL insolvency is not to talk about BTL insolvency.

I get it, and will try my hardest not to mention it a least every 5 minutes!

[The Knimbies who say No]

Superheroes!

Max Lev(erage)!

EllTeeVee 100 plus!

Hoover Zemup!

Double inZeven!

C.G.T. no Know!

Mark Alexander!

Angela Bryant!

and introducing (as ratings stall):

The Running (from the tax)Man

Shoeshine Suzi

Y Dai Do Dis?

Repo Vanz Ere

Edited August 4, 2015 by Cry and Regret

[Bland Unsight]

follow the exciting tale of 'Gone with Unwind' in our next edition.

In a quintessentially hpc moment, I now realise that having neither read the novel nor seen the film, I will have to do one or the other in order to better appreciate this superb post!

[rentingtechie]

Ooops meant to start new topic.

Edited August 5, 2015 by rentingtechie

[rentingtechie]

Hi,

I posted on 118, and have now apparently been disabled, so now cannot respond to being accused of being a troll, disparaging renters (I'm one and have been all my life) and various other things. Oh well, so much for debate.

One of the things that's very clear is they are organising themselves very well and are going all out on emailing associations, MPs, cabinet members etc. Mark Alexander apparently has been invited to a focus group to discuss the tax policy. They are building serious clout.

Sadly however, they don't seem to have much knowledge of economics.

Here - we have some excellent economic and political thinkers, but by and large all we do is whine and moan to each other. Every now and then when someone emails an MP it often falls short of well-reasoned and well-presented arguments and often makes silly comments and attacks or otherwise paints us as some wacko fringe.

I don't know about you but I'm not really interested in that. I've long since stopped caring all that much about a "house price crash" per se, but I keep coming back because of the broad alternative viewpoints and excellent treatment of economics that appears from time to time.

However, just watching this latest thing play out - maybe it's time to learn a lesson from the 118 folks and get organised? Or do we want to just let them scream the loudest and skulk off feeling hard done by if they get the policy reversed? Even if they fail on this particular point, they are going to be able to use this campaign as a platform to build influence and connections to use in the future. Then what?

What can we do? Publish a policy paper? Email our MPs the same? Get media attention?

Anyone interested in pursuing this?

[XswampyX]

Hi,

Some interesting stuff....

Anyone interested in pursuing this?

It could be that us lot 'over here' being so intelligent and that, know full well that any action will be utterly pointless and wont change anything. So why bother?

I could get 1,000,000 renters to march in London and then stage a mass sit in... and for what?

[Bland Unsight]

However, just watching this latest thing play out - maybe it's time to learn a lesson from the 118 folks and get organised? Or do we want to just let them scream the loudest and skulk off feeling hard done by if they get the policy reversed? Even if they fail on this particular point, they are going to be able to use this campaign as a platform to build influence and connections to use in the future. Then what?

Nobody, in the whole long storied history of human endeavour has ever, ever, ever been more right about anything.

You are so right, so undeniably, transcendentally right that somehow the word right is inadequate.

We need a new more beautiful and profound word rendered in a novel alphabet where each new letter is more right than the other and then when they are strung together we discover a poem of truth - an undeniable concrete object of veracity - that literally takes your breath away.

We must, must, must organise.

Should we stand idly by, observing our complete lack of borrowing and our enormous cash deposits whilst political geniuses like Mark 'The Butcher's Boy' Alexander conspire with infinite strategic wisdom to render our defeat absolute?

(F**k it. I'm done - you are Miles Shitside and this is the most awesome set-up ever from a straight-man. I gave it my best shot, but I fear you put the bar too high. Only Shitside can match Shitside. My money is on TCI, but s/he is a sniper and Shitside will run his/her mouth - so who knows...)

[XswampyX]

Here's what we can do...

NSFW!

[Bland Unsight]

OK, FT, this is how we do it.

Firstly the OP screams troll, so we hit the profile and discover that rantingtosser joined in 2008 (What were prices doing then?) and has been radio silence ever since.

We then use the display name history (nigelflack, changed yesterday, FFS) and google to explore their posting history...

We do something insanely inventive in google like +nigelflack +housepricecrash (Colour me stalker...)

Yep - I'm in the same situation. I now have what would amount to a fairly sizeable deposit, but am not sure at all I want to use it to purchase property. So at the moment it's just sitting there in the bank doing nothing useful.

Sad to say, at the moment the best return looks to be BTL, unless I can find a suitable business opportunity to invest in. I don't think any of the normal investment routes offered/managed by the financial services industry are very attractive as either the investments are still over-inflated or I just don't trust the managers. I would love to invest in a small company I know, but my hands are tied by my current employment agreement, so I'm still trying to work out what to do.

It may well be that I just keep saving for another couple of years. It does seem a bit ridiculous to have a 5- and soon 6-figure sum just sitting in cash when it could be helping to build the economy, but I guess that's how it is.

Still checking used Ferrari prices now and then though...

Obviously at this point we call an hpcer with literally thousands of posts something unpleasant, because for chrissake, it's not as if a mere muppet could make a few elementary deductions and use google. Don't be ridiculous...

Meanwhile, back in the real world, I had five pints because I was so sure that George Osborne had this, and so happy that he did. My boy V-dog is not a stalker - he's just got an IQ over 90 and a passing familiarity with the forum software and google.

That's how we hunt trolls.

Show some respect to people who do hard yards, much as we show respect to the hard yards that you do.

It is a war. They have lost. They are now looking for people to jump into their graves.

Welcome back, Mr Flack. Dinner is served. It involves humiliation and insolvency.

Edited August 6, 2015 by bland unsight

[Bland Unsight]

BTW - for those of you who haven't figured it, there never were any EA trolls.

They were always BTL trolls.

It has always been a buy-to-let bubble. An incredible demonstration of idiocy.

This is where people came to stay sane. BTL trolls - we have the cream of the f**king crop right here. Don't troll our boards. George Osborne just gave you notice that the HMRC is going to start gutting you, 2017 latest. In the meantime prices will slide and the margin calls on your ersatz mortgage contracts will gut you. Any of you surviving that will be impaled when Basel 3 kicks risk weightings on your daft ersatz mortgage to 100%+ (I know you don't understand, it doesn't matter what you understand - they just tell the computer what to bill you and then you go insolvent...)

Do any of you cretins believe for a moment that trolling our boards is worthwhile? We are laughing uncontrollably in your stupid faces. We discover ourselves crossing the road and giggling, hideously afflicted by over-gloating (h/t Byron). They are publishing our threads in Moneyweek and that is making mugs hesitate to jump into your grave...

It is over. Go home. Sell now. Sell everything.

What saved you last time was the absence of a decent resolution regime. Now we have the 2009 Banking Act, UKAR and deep societal hatred of buy-to-let. It is on. Time for fish guts.

(Great trolling BTW - kudos.)