Hometrack Feb 2011 -0.2 M-On-M -2.7 -Y-On-Y

[Unsafe As Houses]

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-analysis/house-price-survey/20110303.cfm

Summary Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11

Monthly price change (%) -0.4 -0.5 -0.2

% change in new buyers registering with agents -4.8 -9.5 14.7

% change in volume of property listings -1.5 -5.4 7.5

% change in sales agreed 1.0 -13.2 25.4

Average time on the market (weeks) 10.0 10.2 10.0

% of the asking price being achieved 92.1 91.9 92.4

% postcode districts with price increase over month 0.8 1.8 4.8

% postcode districts with price decrease over month 36.0 37.0 26.0

Results

* Demand for housing jumped by 14.7%, the first increase for eight months as a mix of seasonal and pent-up demand fed into the market after a very weak second half of 2010.

* The supply of homes for sale increased by 7.5% - the highest monthly increase for 3 years.

* Agents reported a 25% increase in sales agreed over February which, once exchanged, will reduce the available supply of homes for sale in the months ahead. This will support pricing levels so long as demand does not weaken significantly in the near term.

* A decline in the supply of homes for sale over the last six months together with a modest re-pricing of housing has created an environment where sales are progressing between willing buyers and sellers. This is supporting sales volumes, which is vital for price stability.

* Average prices fell by -0.2% in February, the lowest monthly decline for 6 months.

* The proportion of the country posting price falls has declined for the last 4 months. Lower prices were reported across 26% of the country compared to 37% in January and 57% in October 2010.

* Prices rose across 4.8% of the country in February.

* The modest improvement in underlying pricing is highlighted by the proportion of the asking price achieved increasing for the first time in 12 months to 92.4%, up from 91.9% in January 2011.

* The time on the market also fell in February and stands at 10 weeks, down from 10.2 weeks in January 2011.

* n On a regional basis prices were static in London, the first month prices haven’t fallen in the capital for 7 months. Across the other regions the rate of price falls slowed apart from the North where falls increased to -0.5%.

* The strongest market conditions were seen in the South of the country. There is a growing gap in the time on the market between the Southern regions (8.6 weeks) and Northern regions (12.1 weeks) reflecting the differing supply/demand balance. That said the market remains highly fragmented at a local level.

Surprised that no one appears to have posted this. At least it's not positive after the last Halifax, land reg and nationwide reports.

Edited March 3, 2011 by Unsafe As Houses

[Sibley's Love Child]

Lovely stuff; listings up, sales up, % of asking price received up. Prices still down.

[Unsafe As Houses]

Lovely stuff; listings up, sales up, % of asking price received up. Prices still down.

I'm arguably cherry-picking their findings to suit my own VI but this is very important I think:

* The supply of homes for sale increased by 7.5% - the highest monthly increase for 3 years.

I read some recent articles saying that supply had fallen recently - this is strong evidence against this. Also, in 2010 it appeared to take about 3 months for the increase in supply to affect prices.

[The Green Manalishi]

Hmm, just wondering, for every person who puts a house on the market, how many of these go around all the local estate agents and immediately register multiple times as a buyer.

Well it's going to be a quick sale isn't it?

[Unsafe As Houses]

Worth a bump I think given Hometrack's finding that:

* The supply of homes for sale increased by 7.5% - the highest monthly increase for 3 years.

stands in contrast to Halifax's claim that there are tentative signs supply is going down and, if this continues, it will underpin house prices.

[Pent Up]

Worth a bump I think given Hometrack's finding that:

* The supply of homes for sale increased by 7.5% - the highest monthly increase for 3 years.

stands in contrast to Halifax's claim that there are tentative signs supply is going down and, if this continues, it will underpin house prices.

It does make you question where halifax get the supply data from. They have no measure of it themselves so they must take it from other reports. Probably RICS which showed listings increase by just a small amount in January. Their February release is due out Tuesday which, going by rightmove, home and hometrack should show quite an increase. Which will put that argument to bed once and for all.