peemac

You ain't explained jack 5hit. All you've done is add ever more layers to what is now IMO quite blatantly a lie, starting with your friend setting up a company to avoid income tax on gambling profits. Actually no, I'm logged on most of the time though. and I do only use the sports.betfair.com address, which looks like what the old www.betfair.com used to look like, well similar layout anyway. Obviously the colour scheme is a bit more powder puff than that of old.

Not if you remain permanently logged on and have your bookmark as 'sports.betfair.com' I'm sorry I just don't believe this. You also mentioned specificaly that he had complex INCOME tax avoidance structures related to his betfair profits (at least that's how you phrased it). Why would he need this if he's simply running a business? **cough cough** nonsense.

Either you missed my reply to you, or you misunderstood it. I agreed I got it wrong - Betfair used to have on their front page something along the lines of '£50M traded per xxx' Where I remembered xxx being week, as you point out it was more likely to be day. That was a couple of years ago, I don't see the betfair frontpage much these days, just had a look and it's not there anymore as far as I can see. I can assure you I have more than a rough idea of how betfair works. I've had an interest betting for a few years now, and like I said through my association with another forum happen to know a lot of gamblers, covering the whole spectrum from £2 a go hobby bettors to people who do it for a living. I know people on the other side of the equation too and people who work in associated industries (including one with a business associated with gambling who makes more money than anything mentioned here so far). How do you think I was put on to the MSE thread in the first place? MSE is not a forum I frequent, I only knew the name because I see it getting a regular kicking on here, I posted it on here for the same reason and because I thought it showed the mentality of the bubble, and the MSE members. I'm glad your glad I agree with your comments about tax free betting. However I wasn't agreeing with you, or backing you up, just stating a fact as I know it.

Neither of these systems rely solely on Betfair. Joes system exploits the way bookies manage their risk (essentially applying the favourite-longshot bias to football) Slapdash is an each way thief, and his record speaks for itself. In fact I have no idea how he still manages to get a bet on anywhere.

Actually some do. Search google for slapdash. I know this guy personally, he makes a sizeable sum from gambling (although he doesn't call it gambling) and his methods (or at least his main methods) and selections are widely available for anyone to follow. Have a look at Joe Buchdahls website: football-data.co.uk The system selections created by joes system will net you a moderate but steady yield. If you have a large bank to start with these two people could make you a lot of money. Of course its not completely risk free but the systems have a firm mathematical grounding (both slapdash and Joe have VERY solid mathematical backgrounds) and are the closest thing in gambling you will find to a 'sure thing'

I would argue that its because your original post was misleading, and made no attempt to clarify in what way exactly your friend was involved. The explantion in your last post is wildly different from the image of your friend you portrayed in your initial post. Anyway, if he's not involved day to day how does he ever hear his software go 'kerching' and more to the point how do you? Don't his office staff get annoyed at all the PCs in the office making a daft 'kerching' noise? Wouldn't the pro coders he's employed remove the noise? after all if time is a precious as you make out in this operation why waste CPU cycles on a noise? Still smelling nonsense. You are right, my mistake They used to have it on their front page but I couldn't see it anymore. I thought £50M a day sounded a bit big, but with your explanation it's more than feasible.

Hold on a minute. If it's all done by PC why does he need office space and employees? This story is starting to lose credibility. Either you're not telling us the whole facts (even you must admit your story has come a long way from 'my mate makes £500k a year trading on betfair'). I've only got a small home and I could fit a load of PCs and servers in it. If I was raking in £500k a year, I could buy a nice fat country pad and devote a whole wing of my home to it. I smell nonsense.

So why does he run it as a business? That's hardly clever is it? It's here, black and white: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/manuals/bimmanual/BIM22017.htm Pick the bones out of that.

I'm not sure they are. Exagurated maybe, occasionally, but not complete fantasy. Like I said in a previous post Betfair has become a big complex beast, and people (aside from betfair) are making serious money. There's absolutely no doubt in my mind the the large bookies are also using betfair to trade their positions. Betfair turns over £50M PER WEEK last time I looked. That's a sizable amount of money by any standards. That's the major problem I have with it. In all honesty though I think Betfair will pick up the tab on this one and put it down to a lesson learnt. I'm just surprised its taken this long for it to happen. If this does happen these people should consider themselves very lucky, very lucky indeed. Not being callous but I hope that betfair do go after them, just so that the lesson these people should have learnt sinks in. I doubt they will though. Income tax DOES NOT APPLY to gambling winnings. Main income or not. When was the last time you heard of someone declaring a tenner they won on the lottery? Or declaring their online poker winnings? The lottery jackpot is won tax free. THERE IS NO TAX ON GAMBLING WINNINGS!!! If you don't believe me give the inland revenue a call. I didn't doubt your story duke, mainly because I know a lot of people in and around the industry on both sides of the equation, and I know the kind of methods being used and the figures bandied about by the big players. However, on this point either you're lying to us, or your friend is lying to you. THERE IS NO INCOME TAX ON GAMBLING WINNINGS!!!!!! If your friend is trying to devise elaborate avoidance schemes he's not as clever as you're saying, or your story is rubbish. I'm sorry but ring the IR if you don't believe me. Betfair aren't promising anything, betfair are essentially nothing in this other than software provider. It is up to the individual to understand the market, understand the software and limit their liabilities. Unfortunately for BF in this case I think they are let down by their T&Cs, and I think this market is poorly run, this is uncharacteristic of Betfair because they're a top notch outfit usually.

Does that still work if you;re using chocolate pennies?

There is a small piece in the lates issue of private eye entitled 'you do the sums' (I think, I don't have it to hand) Maximum mortgage that can be borrowed: 5xSalary Value of Blair mortgages: 25xsalary And people wonder why Labour would rather kill the economy than see houseprices fall. They're all in it up to their necks. There really should be laws against MPs doping this kind of thing, owning property and running the economy is a conflict of interest of the grossest kind.

It is true that in general customers lose a lot more than they win. There are however notable exceptions, I know a few people through my association with another forum who do make money through betting, believe it or not it is surprisingly simple. For anyone interested I suggest you get hold of the book ‘Fixed Odds Sports Betting: Statistical Forecasting and Risk Management’ by Joe Buchdahl. You need some rudimentary stats knowledge (and I do mean rudimetary) but he shows how you can exploit the way the bookies manage their risk to make a moderate yet steady yield. You might also like to learn the methods of slapdash. You'll have to do your own research on that one though

Deal with the simple point first: Gambling winnings are tax free, if they weren't then gambling losses would be tax deductable and they aren't. On the point of arbs on betfair they do exist, occasionally and briefly. It's not really a single market, arbs can even exist across different markets on the same event. Fluctuations in odds during play can also be exploited. How much money is it possible to make doing this? Anyones guess really but massive amounts of money change hands on betfair every week. It's my guess that a few large players are raking in the lions share (as with everything else in life), I wouldn't be surprised if the bookies are trading their positions on betfair too. It really has become a large, complex beast.

At a guess the same guys who are writing bots for investment banks are also writing bots for betfair. The money to be made is huge.

It's quite difficult to explain. Imagine you are a bookie, taking bets on the toss of a coin. and you offer odds of 1.9 on each outcome. Now imagine you have 2 people, one bets £1 heads and one bets £1 tails, as a bookie you now have £2 in your pocket, but your maximum payout is £1.90. So you have 10p profit, regardless of the outcome. You can now use that 10p profit to cover liabilities on other bets you take, making even more profit. Now imagine, for some reason (say you have a dodgy coin) one of the outcomes is impossible and you have to give the person that backed heads his money back. You now only have £1, but still face a potential payout of £1.90. You have already used 10p to cover other liabilities, so instead of being in guaranteed profit, you now have a potential loss of £2 and a maximum win of 90p. A much worse position, if you extend this to markets with multiple selections, and multiple non-runners its possible to lock in a guaranteed loss (which is what happened here). I have to say I agree with people who say they won't have to cover their full liabilities, although anyone who did have anything in their betfair account won't have anymore.

No scam. Just stupidity. And greed.

That's why I posted it really. A bubble in microcosm, and on MSE. Shows the mentality of these people. To be honest I doubt they'll end up having to cover their full liabilities, although they will lose any balance they did have. Although betfair is essentially a zero sum game (neglecting commision) so as far as I can see all the losses they have incurred have to be made up from somewhere. Not sure about the guy who claims to have lost 30k - I think he's worked it out wrong and it's more likely to be about 2k. Still a hit though.

He obviously doesn't make schoolboy errors like this then The money is there to be made on betfair, as it is with bookmakers. I don't pretend to know anything about stock markets or currency investments but I would imagine the same principle applies: Those of us who do know what we're doing make money from those who don't. I don't pretend to make anywhere near £500k a year using betfair, but I do make a tidy sum from my gambling activities and the money all has to come from somewhere.

You haven't read it all have you? In summary: They thought they were using this wonderful software (which isn't dodgy at all by the way and is in fact endorsed by Betfair) to make oodles of quick free cash. They didn't read the rules of the market properly, nor did they understand what said software was actually doing and consequently many have actaully made losses running into the thousands, rather then the quick, free cash they thought they were getting. Fair enough, not much to do with houseprices (although MSE members do seem to think that market can pull itself up by its bootlaces indefinitely too). Just refelects their members attitudes really

It was a case of being burned by sheer greed and stupidity. No sympathy from me.

Sorted

Have a look at this thread: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=386063 iand the aftermath: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showth...6241&page=8 Go on, you feel a little bit of sympathy don't you? Me neither

He won't be the last to throw his hat in the ring. IMHO Brown has only a slim chance of becoming PM. Peter Hain is my outside tip for candidacy, I think he'd have some decent support aswell.

Yeah you know whats coming when a politician starts an answer with: 'Let me be clear, the real issue is........' Lying scum the lot of them.

I particularly liked this bit: 'Your Sincerely' Who's he trying to kid?