tenroom

I can empathise with you there. I'm in a similar situation. My work colleagues went to work on me last night in the pub trying to convince me that I shouldn;t sell cos my two flatmates are covering my mortgage and property prices in my area (Ladbroke Grove, W.London) will be immune to HPC even if they're ex LA . . . Thing is, as soon as one of 'em quoted the "8 buyers for every property" line from a few weeks ago, it rammed it home just how little they appreciated just what is going on in this country . . . My reasons for selling up extend far beyond the mere financial but I suspect that you've thought long and hard about your decision so stick to your guns.

If you're selling to rent, then now's as good a time as any. Don't let the vitriol of the original HPC STR set put you off. Those guys sold way too soon and missed out on SERIOUS HPI Prices simply can't go on rising . . . we all know it . . .

Oh dear . . .

Estate agents don't ramp prices. All you've gotta do is look at OOs who get them in to value up their prior to go to market. The agent who comes up with the most realistic selling price very rarely gets the instruction. No, I think you'll find it's the pure unadulterated greed of the vendor that is responsible for mad rises . . .

Yes, the fundamentals of the property market stink but the fundamentals for your crash simply . . . aren't . . . there. Yet ! The mere fact that most arguments for the crash on this board and in pubs around the country seem to rest on a combination of factors that, by themselves, haven't enough oomph to blow the wax out of a bull's ears should be clue enough that unlike '89 with it's 15% interest rates, there is no single substantial catalyst capable of pulling enough lenders out of the market for riskier loans.

That's right . . .

Well hang on . . . a minute ago you said it'd be UK sub-prime fallout and not interest rates . . . I mean, why would highly leveraged BTLers bail out unless interest rates were increasing the subsidies they had to plough into their investments ? Sorry mate, but if you're gonna go around calling the crash and it's cause, you need to demonstrate some degree of consistency otherwise you may end up with less credibility than RealistBore . . .

But you're assuming that all lending is sub-prime. Sure HSBC made provisions for losses but the market barely batted an eyelid because they made such large profits overall. Barclays ain't different nor is Lehmans. If you're making a million a year, you're not going to miss a dropped tenner are you ? Income multiples are a daft way of calculating someone's ability to afford a mortgage. You might view them as some sort of mascot to prudent lending but they didn't matter a jot during the last crash did they ? Basing a mortgage on affordability, whilst causing the eyes to water when converting back to income multiples, are the best way to assess mortgage seviceability especially when there are far longer term fixed rates out there than there were in '99. Considering our property prices are virtually double those of the US and we earn less, I think we've done fairly well thus far and it'd take interest rates - that's right - interest rates of 8% plus to mess it all up.

Pluto for the MPC ! Pluto for the MPC ! Honestly, the sheer bo11ox being spouted here is astounding. If the BoE cut interest rates now, everyone would be trying to buy into property. We're not at the tipping point and frankly we won't be for a little while yet. As a one-time sub-prime mortgage broker, I can state with some confidence that most lenders in this type of market won't go over 85% for those with heavy adverse credit. This ain't the US where there were untold sub-prime lenders vying for a piece of the pie and therefore there was never any of that 110% lending outside of the right-to-buy market. In fact, even in '92/93 when the market was virtually on the floor, there were sub-prime lenders still operating and making profits whilst only lending 85% of FSV (Forced saled value).

I'm sorry but that is so wrong it oughta be illegal. Once a property market starts to fall, not much can stop it. Just as general consensus among the ill-informed says that "property prices only go up", once the market goes into reverse, the general consensus will be the opposite ie "they're going down and staying down". The comprehension of this basic tenet of human nature is what so many property millionaires used to their advantage when they bought up cheap property in London back in '93/94. You're describing what is colloquially referred to as a "soft landing" . . . the UK doesn't do those, I'm afraid. Just boom and bust . . .

Desirable parts of London are simply running away with the ball . . . .

Oh puh-lease. I bought 10 years ago, at rock bottom, mate. All I'm scared of is how I'm going to resist buying the Aston V8 when my sale goes thru . . .

I/O and higher lending multiples do NOT constitute sub-prime lending so please stop bullschitting people RB. "Sub-prime" is when the borrower ALREADY has defaults, CCJs or a history of mortgage arrears on their record. You're no better than the VIs you detest . . . I know plenty of people who've gotten 4+ times their income to buy and they really do manage perfectly well. No one's denying there has been a lot of self certification going on but that doesn't mean the UK's gonna have the same problem as the US even though our loans are bigger and our rates higher. Rates aren't gonna go that much higher so how do you reckon on 2nd quarter 2007 ?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6441447.stm [Moderator: Six similar topics merged]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6441447.stm [Moderator: Five similar topics merged]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6441447.stm [Moderator: Four similar topics merged]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6441447.stm [Moderator: Three similar topics merged]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6441447.stm [Moderator: Two similar topics merged]

Can anyone answer this ? If someone enters into a shared ownership scheme with a Housing Association and buys 50% of, say, a £300K 2 bed place for £150K, how much would he have to pay for the other 50% when the market crashes ? Would he have to promise that any share he bought in the future would be based on the original purchase price ?? So for example if prices came off to the tune of say 30%, the property would be worth £210K. Borrower owns half and pays rent on half. Decides he wants to buy the rest, does the HA have to sell it to him at 50% of the new value (£105K) or at the original (£150K) Just a thought . . .

HSBC made huge losses in sub-prime over the pond but they made enough from other activities ($22bn) to be able to shrug them off. The markets didn't bat an eyelid. If you're making heavy bucks, you can afford to lose a fiver. Sub-prime fallout is nowhere near as severe in the UK. You're clutching again, RB . . . Your faith is admirable but many of your forum cohorts are suffering disillusionment . . . There maybe be wisdom in their doubt . . .

A mate bought a crappy 3 bed ex-LA in Ladbroke Grove for under £60K. He's selling up now and the agent who came round to "value" it reckoned £285K should be ok. That was back in October '06. He's just had an offer weigh in at £300K . . . . and the agent reckons he should hang on . . . Prices are still rising . . . tough if you can't deal with it, bears

Yes. Of course they will

No need for the bold typeface, mate but let's just stick with your "keyboard warriors" monicker for a moment. I'm going to assume you're ascribing this term to describe those with a certain propensity to embellish their posts with expletives or insults particularly when a topic becomes "heated". If this is correct, then might I venture that PG qualifies as a blueprint upon which all "keyboard warriors" are modelled. I am sure I am not alone in drawing this conclusion . . . . the guy's a tool . . .