kibuc
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Posts posted by kibuc
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2 hours ago, Blues Chick said:
..."benefits scumbags"? You mean those being exploited and paid poverty wages? Yes?
They're getting a nice top up funded by the middle class, so I guess it's an open question who's really exploited here.
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Any comments on the action in PMs? Gold struggling, silver taking a beating... Is everyone running to treasuries? Should we expect a strong move up in gold in the near term (and why not now)?
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Watching Bloomberg now, happy faces all around, and a very animated man tells me that it's a healthy correction (probably 1 of your 5-a-day?). It sound strikingly similar to a healthy correction in BTC from c.a. 20k to 17k, followed by an even healthier correction to 13k, and then 10k and recently 6k. Fingers crossed for the stock market getting just as big dose of health.
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Saying is the new doing.
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20 minutes ago, narco said:
I really do not understand what is going on with this
Why the hell would anyone short something like this at an all time low value? Also why the hell are people buying or selling "volatility" like it's actually an asset class?
Why are people buying or selling an outcome of a sport event at the bookies, or result of an undeterministic physics experiment at the roulette table? Some people simply have to gamble, on anything, and it's even better if you can call yourself a trader or an investor instead of a gambler.
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23 minutes ago, Even Keel said:
By its very nature the value of bitcoin is related to its utility. By its very nature it is also highly unstable and will boom and bust every time there is a significant new use for it. Is that really likely to happen again?
Not saying that I agree with your overall assessment, but Lightning Network sounds like it fits your bill.
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2 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:
£4,700 now.
getting very close to the value/support level of £4,500 now.
if it goes below that then it’s getting oversold.
It's interesting that you're setting your critical levels in GBP, considering that virtually no-one deals BTC in Sterling. Do you factor in any volatility in GBPUSD rate?
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7 minutes ago, evetsm said:
Incredible. Hookers, gambling and drugs are part of the official GDP figures.
Quite frankly, why shouldn't it be? It's part of the economy, and not a small one either. For me it's OK as long as they update all the previous figures as well (which they obviously won't).
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6 minutes ago, durhamborn said:
I dont expect the crash here though there is a chance,but its probably just the first wash out to rattle people.Hopefully (and i expect) it should now help gold move up.
A quick question from a newbie: why should gold go up when IRs are expected to rise? Shouldn't that strengthen the dollar and dollar-denominated assets?
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Cheers @Fence. I'll walk it off, no worries. Just needed to let off some steam.
Patience is indeed vital. They should teach it at school.
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Silver absolutely decimated my leveraged bet today... or should I say I decimated my stack by using high leverage.
Silver was dropping in GBP terms and leverage on USD price was supposed to counter that. Lesson learned I guess (or is it? we'll see), but I had to spend a few minutes in the office just staring mindlessly at the wall.
Still it's a mystery to me how to benefit from the upcoming rise in PMs if it's negated by falling USDGBP rate.
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4 hours ago, jiltedjen said:
Yep, but also the various other alt pumpers, the IOTA chaps etc.
Funny you should say that, as I'm currently on the sidelines waiting to go 50/50 xrp/iota once the dust settles
Great money to be made there, methinks.
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1 hour ago, Does Commute Abit said:
True, but its a real bad deal in life in that case if you:
1) establish a career far from home. Bad news for those living in many rural locations forced into rural depopulation (no medical schools or engineering faculties in Orkney)
2) have little family left. That recently was a key statistic with those without inheritance heavily disadvantaged in future.
3) have a troubled family you need to move away from.
4) are a 1st gen immigrant. Which, I assume, a lot of workers actually are. Your family is not gonna help you from 1k+ miles away.
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My Ctrl+F for "Brexit" and "uncertainty" on that news report came back negative... how come?
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DB, I'm interested in your (or anyone else's
) opinion on leveraged ETFs in the upcomming collapse. Would you say that in a deflationary bust the risk of such ETFs defaulting (due to default of the short side or the issuer) is higher than usual?
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21 minutes ago, tomandlu said:
So, why are the Wilsons not just "early adopters"?
The whole strategy of HODL with BTC is based around an unearned claim on others' work. The idea is basically to make a charge for buying into the currency (I'm not talking about transaction fees; I'm talking about the BTC price). Everytime usage expands, the value goes up, and anyone holding gets a free claim on others' labour. Honestly, comparing it to MS is a stretch - that's more like the developers, but not the miners and not the HODL crew.
It doesn't really bother me - the ethical issue I have with BTC are inextricably linked with why I think it will fail on a practical basis. Just invent a coin with a peg already. Oh, but that wouldn't make HODL a guaranteed path to unearned riches.
In a way, they are - early adopters of people farming. And they are reaping enormous rewards, too. The reason it bothers me (unlike crypto adopters' gains) is that the very premise of their enterprise is immoral, hardly creates anything of value to society and directly affects my well-being. On the other hand, a distributed consensus protocol is a very real and valuable invention.
I agree that people jumping in right now, as opposed to 2009, are joining the bandwagon and by holding they don't really promote network growth. They still risk a lot (and are hoping of a healthy reward for that), but it's not very productive. My MS comparison refers to people who actively use their coins, but nevertheless, I don't see how holding is worse than accumulating precious metals.
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24 minutes ago, Funn3r said:
Hard to know what to do in their circumstances where you live in a flammable environment, where there could accidentally be a fire. Difficult when you are facing a massive bill, did I mention there could accidentally be a fire.
Just make sure to coincidentally throw an off-site party for all residents at the time of that unfortunate accident. Safety first.
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25 minutes ago, wsn03 said:
A group of people holding a greater share of the worlds resources that, if things went their way would be the resources i would need to purchase things, and just because they got there first...sound familiar?
Same prospect of earning wealth for doing nothing but speculating.
Same bragging and ludicrous justifications on the way up, and tales of providing something to help the future etc on the way down.
Sorry am I missing something?
Definitely sounds familiar - reminds me of... well, basically every major innovation. Early adopters get the biggest worm, but they are also the ones taking the greatest risk and promoting adoption. Microsoft dominated the home PC market by being first to it with a desirable product, but it was hardly a no-brainer in the early 90s. Massive risk brought massive profits, and not only did Microsoft benefit from basically owning the market, but it was probably one of the biggest reasons why that market developed into what it is now.
On the other hand, house hoarders haven't invented anything as far as I know.
Bitcoin protocol and PoW consensus is a huge thing. I have no problem with people who took risks early to help it go mainstream getting rewarded handsomely now or in the future. They didn't just "get there" first. They made that thing happen, without it there wouldn't be any "there" to get to.
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46 minutes ago, wsn03 said:
Just like HPI...no wait...the HODLers are out to save the future
Seriously? Just like HPI?
How much rent are you paying for that bitcoin over your head?
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22 minutes ago, GloomMonger said:
What was the main cause of this correction?
In the last few days:
- CMC removing KRW pairs from price calculations
- Crackdown in China
- Crackdown in South Korea
- Another crackdown in China
- China again
- BitConnect going down
No to mention that there was an immense bull run without a meaningful drop in 2017, with an absolute madness of Nov-Dec being a cherry on top.
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3 hours ago, ccc said:
I cant imagine this is supported by the vast majority of actual Poles. They have a general extreme dislike - to put it mildly - for Russians.
And Germans. And French. And blacks, like, all blacks. Basically anyone who's not a white slavic Christian. And not just any slavic - no Belarusans, Lithuanians, Cech... In fact, we only like Poles. And I mean proper Poles, not those drunk scumbag ex-miners from the south, and obviously not those better-than-thou Lachs from the west who are basically Germans anyway... And no women. They have their uses, but they're not really people.
On a serious note, IMHO there's no way - none, nought, zero chance - that Poles as a nation will vote to leave the EU in the foreseeable future. The young'uns love it. 30-40yos like it. We've only got in 13 years ago and it was claimed to be our highest point since the XVII century. And yes, what @BristolBuyer says about running away from the Russians is correct.
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I have to say I'm rather disappointed with silver performance, with DXY going down so much and gold doing quite well in comparison.
Also, Blackrock Gold and General (the only gold-related fund available in my SIPP) still manages to drop in value despite gold surge.
I don't understand any of it.
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17 minutes ago, tomandlu said:
It looks like it, but surely the off-chain part will be inherently less secure and reliable, or it's all going to get a bit recursive.
I'd say potentially less reliable, but not less secure. With the exception of direct channel payments, you'll be relying on hubs to process your payment properly, so there's a certain degree of trust involved, but your funds are still cryptographically secure. If there's a bad actor in your payment chain, the worst case scenario is you have to close your channel with the state before that payment, so there's no risk of funds loss (only the cost of closing the channel and potentailly re-opening it).
That's from my limited understaing of this whole thing.
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11 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:
As I rather tediously keep needing to point out - Poland has a deal with Hungary never to black ball the other - THEY CANNOT BE THROWN OUT. At least not with the EU constitution as it is. Kind of amusing that the EU’s lack of true democracy is being subverted and used against it.
edit to add
what the PMs of poland and hungary said about the refugee situation is actually rather sensible - they said that the refugees themselves don’t want to be there and that as soon as they get EU citizenship they would leave for the France the UK or Germany.
There's no "deal", and Orban will do what he thinks best for him. I'd expect him to make a U-turn if the price is right, and if I'm wrong, the easiest solution (and a very EU-like one) is to throw both PL and HU out in one swift vote, where both countries would have to abstain due to conflict of interest.
Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.
in House prices and the economy
Posted · Edited by kibuc
I'm an amateur as well, but I'm quite certain that's not how it works.
If you bought a 1-year bond for $100 with a $2 coupon, that bond is basically as good as a $102 note (that you paid $100 for). If rates fall and now 1-year bonds yield 1%, you might be able to sell your bond for $100.99 (still worth $102 at maturity, so offering just a notch above 1% return), or much closer to $102 as your bond approaches maturity. However, no-one ever, never will pay you $200 for a note that is worth $102 at maturity.
On the other hand, if your $100 bond has maturity of 30 years and yields $2 per year, you might consider it an equivalent of a $160 note (assuming no re-investment). If new 30y bonds only yield 1% (being as good as $130 notes) you might be able to sell your bond for $123 and still offer competetive value.
So, it a function of bond maturity - the longer it is, the more share prices are impacted by rate changes.
Please somebody correct me if I'm speaking nonsense.