homeowner

I agree.. although shouldnt that read "Population can continue to grow until the world is unable to feed us all."

So what you are saying is that population can continually grow and the world is large enough to cope with our ever increasing demands.. Food? Energy? What the article describes is the burgeoning demands of countries that have huge populations living in poverty. Maybe the world can sustain that but not 7 billion people living like us in the west. (whatever lightbulbs they use) The strange sense of security people have in the west is disconcerting if you look at the facts and do some arithmetic its truly frightening.. 7 billion sounds like a lot try 9.5 billion in your lifetime.. (Imagine oil prices then)

Oh yes very wise.. Well I've lived in Liverpool all my life and bought my first house about 8 yers ago in west derby. I've moved once since then 2 years ago. To be honest prices seemed to be rising sharply for the last 6 years but since I moved 2 years ago I personally think that prices have stagnated. My parents also live in liverppol in a dockland apartment bought about 13 years ago those flats went up in value quickl but have reminained at about the same level for 3 years. Its really hard to know what to say as far as advice goes.. I made my descicion based on affordability and how long I was likely to stay in the property.

I Live in liverpool and try to keep up with what prices are doing.. What area is the house in?

This HPC is all about degree... People are talking about the impending "fireworks" and "wiping the smiles of faces" etc. I belive that a 40% drop in current house prices would not only do that but would significanly effect the economy at large. However a 10% drop in prices would not have such a large effect.... How much did prices drop in the last crash and what are the predictions for this one?

Having read the papers and been a HPC member for some time I belive that the crash will come in time. What I would like to know is by how much will prices drop....? I know its hard to predict but would welcome some predictions.

Dont quote me on this but I thought that in usual market conditions FTB make up 30% of the market.

You have my point exactly... You are a person who just wants a house as do we all. You have some money put aside and when the time comes you will act.. You dont want to wait for the full extent of any crash all you are interested in is having a nice place to live as soon as possible. I belive their are many people like you and (with no disrespect whatsoever this is just speculation) its people like you who will prevent a full scale crash.

Thats my point the not too smart people may not wait... and dive in as soon as things become a little more affordable.. I've seen this kind of talk already on this site... I" ve been watching a house for x amount its gone down I've put in an offer and its been excepted" This kind of diving in too early would actually stop a crash reaching its lowest point.

So we are all agreed there is going to be a crash.. What worries me is there are a lot of people on this site and in the wider community who after being priced out of the market, now have substantial cash reserves. 10 years ago the money that they have in their personal coffers may even have been refered to as a fortune. Now my worry is: after all that saving and watching the housing market; when a drop in prices does come desperation gets the better of this cash rich group. When they rush to make that long awaited purshase they will in effect be obstructing the full force of the crash witch they have so long awaited.

I also saw the program last night and nearly fell of the sofa... I live in liverpool and there has been some downwards movement in price on very very overpriced property but nothing like seventy percent.

Sorry... you seem to have misinterpreted my post somewhat. I do have a vested interest, however I'm not that confident that a HPC wont take place. I bought a house at a relatively high price lately (I took a riskbased on circumstances) but looking at he stats and the informed information on his wesite I cant see how anything other than a reduction in prices is possibe.

As long as you havent got any money in the bank either.... look what happened in Argentina. What people fail to realize is that the econom is an interelationship betwwen the whole of this society we are all inextricably linked into it via our jobs and are need for warmth and shelter and food

There is one other factor in the housing market... For most people its not just an investment its a home.. and a lot of people would'nt expect to make any gains on their initial investment over a short period.

could you clarify those repossesion numbers please.

I've been reading threads on this forum for a while now and I've got to say I'ts one of the most interesting places on the internet. Anyway what caused the dot com bubble to burst and other stock market falls was lack of confidence in the ability for the investment to make money. From what I'm seeing from the news (if I can belive it to be true) is confidence in the housing market caused by lots of factors. The governments acceptance of high prices and schemes to help FTB (as thought prices will never go down) TV programs talking contantly about propert and property developing Peoples genuine desire to own a property People still think that the property market is a good investment (rightly or wrongly) and all the others are just desperate to own a home. As long as these perceptions are in place the market will not crash (in my opinion) market fundamentals are all very well but its the often irrational minds of people who are driving this market not graphs and statistics. I agree that when the economics of the situation reach break point confidence cannot physically pay the bills. I think that this break point is still a some way off.

Suppose these people area all going to need homes......

It has come to my attention in my area anyway people putting their houses up for sale and not really being that serious about moving. There attiude is this: if I can get the extortionate price I'm asking for Yeah I'll move, who would'nt, but if I can't sell; so what I'll stay I've lost nothing. I see this more and more with properties going up and even know a few people who have told me this is their plan.

Thanks for your post everyone... I think this site is starting to get to me.. Anyone want to buy a house?

Therfore as stated I empathize no need to be rude. (you are clearly not one of the people I was addressing)

Very well put..

When I was looking to purchase a 2 years ago I couldn get my head around how much the prices had increased (which as we know does happen sometimes to excess) I was looking at houses that if I could have easily have afforded 6 years ago but didnt belive that prices would rise and saw the investment as a risk. Basically before buying I had o get real about what I could afford. I get the feeling there are people on here (not everyone) who want a 5 bedroom detached house with land and at present cannot afford one. but who look back and think I could have had that 6 years ago. If you genuinly cant afford to get onto the bottom rung I empathize the others have simply got ideas above their station as I had.

Never been more sure about anything. The crash is underway and there's nothing anyone can do or say that will convince me otherwise. This is going to be bad. Make the late 80's crash look like a walk in the park. I've spoken to many people on this subjet and most who belive there will be a crash seem to think that the only real effect is that a couple of smug homeowners will have the smile wiped of teir facesand all the FTB will run in and get houses at cost price. If there is a full scale crash and prices drop 40% do you not belive that there will be severe detrimental effects to the whole economy. As peple have pointed out in this post this is all very precariously balanced and there is a lot of debt flying around if their was mass repossession it would destablise the financial institutions in which the FTB hard earned cash resides. These things are all interlinked. Remember the butterfly effect "In a system when a small change results in an unpredictable and disproportionate disturbance"

Only fly in the ointment is that when it becomes cheaper to buy than rent - the market will take off again and the BTL vultures will descend and there will be another boom. Higher interest rates will kill this so we'll just have to hope the massive trade imbalance in the States (and here) will cause IRs to rise in the medium term. Good point.. but dont you think as people are now obsessed with property that as soon as any significant decrease takes place the investors will be back in along with all these FTB who have been saving and a full HPC will actually be averted by the people who want it most.

So in summary is it safe to say that when this house of precariously balaned cards collapses the only winners will be the FTB who have rented and saved their money waiting for the bottom of the market?