Frizzers

There's some newbuild bear porn in the Sunday Times today. I can't get behind the firewall, but I think we all know what it's going to say. http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article1662286.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30

Low sterling is not good for house prices. It makes them look cheaper to overseas buyers. The post-2008 collapse made London over 30% cheaper and was one of the triggers for foreign buying. High sterling, however, might enduce them to sell and take profits. It also means potential margin calls for overseas buyers who have only made downpayments and whose currencies have imploded (particularly Malaysian buyers in SW8). Collapsing, sterling, however is a different thing.

Yes, I follow him and also Henry Pryor. FWIW mate just accepted an offer on his house in Pimlico for ... 10% below asking. 10% on a £1m house (imagine his was more) = £100k. Not small fry. And it's the 3rd time his place has gone under offer.

Which buying agents do you follow?

Circa one million dollars of goods traded per day on the black market.

Thanks Silverfinger. Thats very interesting.

One for the mathematicians / statisticians on here ... SIlverfinger? The govt.'s annual revenue is made up is, roughly, 25% income tax, 20% VAT as per below. Is there a way of estimating the average annual percentage of revenue equivalent from the debasement of money? In other words, what is the inflation tax? How on earth would you estimate that? From my notes, and of relevance: From 1989 to now CPI has averaged just 2.8 per cent per year. The amount of money circulating in the UK has been ‘inflated’ at an average annual rate of 11.5 per cent over the same period. In 1971 there was £31bn in circulation. Now there is just under £2,100bn (£2.1 tn). That is a 67-fold inflation of the supply of money. Edit: Official inflation (CPI) tracks only the 10% of the money that goes into consumer goods. It ignores the 37% that has gone into financial markets and the 40% that has gone into property.

For a set of predictions billing itself as surprises that is dull inside-the-box pap. Most of them are already happening. Bet Byron R. Wien earns a packet too. (not having a go at you j666 btw but at the generic fluff this dude's coming out with.

In time for Christmas.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/14/60000-london-flats-back-onto-market--estate-agent-cluttons?CMP=share_btn_link Thousands of unbuilt flats and apartments could come back on to the Londonproperty market over the next two years as foreign investors seek to cut their losses, according to a new study. In their latest report on the residential market, researchers at estate agent Cluttons said a large volume of newbuild stock was flowing on to the off-plan resales market, “as buyers, particularly those of an international flavour, try to exit the market as currency advantages, especially for those from emerging markets, fade”.

Prices in PCL might be down from their highs. But it is still not possible to buy anything in London that could even be remotely described as 'good value'. The supply is just not there. Where I am in zone 2 a house has just sold on my street for a record amount - after 1 day on the market. It was nicely done up, but still a good 10% higher than the previous record. It's lack of supply and improved desirability of the area thanks to the Ginger Line that have made it happen. Buyers are people who five-ten years ago would be in Clapham or Balham, moneyed young families in other words, who have been forced east. There are still plenty of them.

Yes. And use the filter if someone's posts annoy you.

Tradition.

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Latest Mercury report

Yup. I was onto this last week - http://moneyweek.com/money-morning-the-bubble-in-london-property/ Retest is on the cards, but we really want to see it fall below. CWD is probably more important for UK as a whole

A money system that enabled the unrestrained creation of money ... the introduction of mortgages into home buying ... planning laws that restricted supply and resulted in only government and large companies, neither of of whom share the same interests as the people who actually live there, being able to build ... market price rises that lured the greedy rather than the residents ... and sigh

This is quite interesting on Walter Segal in Lewisham

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/buy-to-let/11965438/Buy-to-let-tax-will-cut-our-income-by-25pc.-How-much-will-YOU-lose.html

Doing my bit ... http://moneyweek.com/money-morning-the-bubble-in-london-property/

Instead of squabbling or calling for mods, just use the mute button.

I haven't got a confirmed sell signal. I may revise in the morning. But with the confidence of too many glasses of wine, I reckon the builders topped in Sept. Game ******in' Over.

Malaysian stock market down 30% http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EWM&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83485269040

Ringgit's fallen by 25% against the pound http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=MYRGBP&insttype=Currency&freq=2&show=&time=12

I keep saying it but it starts with BPS. There's a problem brewing at the Battersea Power Station development, and it's all to do with the Malaysia's currency, the ringgit. http://uk.businessinsider.com/cheap-flat-in-battersea-power-station-malaysian-ringgit-collapse-2015-10