Pablo

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, all seems absolutely logical to me. I just hope the government doesn't have any further tricks up it's sleeve! .

I recall seeing a chart that personal debt was about 3x higher than in 2008, so if people are in that much debt and cannot take on anymore. and debt is the trigger for a fall - I think there are other factors like how the local/global economies are performing, unemployment, government debt e.t.c. Then on the basis of debt alone, we are due for this to be a big fall? as the IR is already at record lows...they can't do much more there....?

Great news! I know the economy currently has it's issues what with referendum, increased personal debt, overvalued stocks, issues with Russia/Grexit e.t.c but in it's current state will it really drive down prices in the same way as the financial crash in 07/08? Or has the market just started exhausting itself of money and diminishing returns for the BTL'ers? Basically trying to get your feel for how much of a realistic drop we could expect, rather than our wishes!

Mixed on this, I think my feelings fall into two categories:- Generally my view is that borrowing against a car is foolish, and people should keep within their means! However this breaks out a little further (IMHO) 1) If you can afford the car in the first place, and it makes more economic sense to lease rather than buy, then obviously this makes sense as you would buy the car regardless and financially stable to make the choice. 2) If you cannot afford the car in cash and it is more expensive to own over 3 years, than buying a decent dependable used car, e.g. something Japanese and simple, then do not lease. Example some late 90’s/early 2000’s 2-3k Honda vs paying let’s say £150 a month (e.g. £5400, plus servicing over 3 years, plus no doubt a deposit, plus a fee for any minor damage). The difference being you will also have an asset at the end of the period that probably isn’t radically different to what you paid. I have never bought a new car but by no means boring car, e.g. Alfa Romeo’s, a TVR e.t.c they have all given me a pretty trouble free experience. and most actually returned a profit (even after running costs!)

Agreed, there are areas that do seem to still be moving quickly, particularly the east. Lots of properties remaining unsold in the west however, with the few odd sales for property that is immaculate or priced lower than competition. I am getting the feeling that FTB'ers are getting near the point of not stomaching it anymore (myself included), and the tail off in volumes are part of the evidence to this. TCofN is knowledgeable about all things housing, but does get a bit excited when it comes to anyone stating that they know of a property being sold in London!.

No idea, didn't ask. Perhaps parental support for a deposit then a £80k+ salary isn't out of the bounds of possibility. No-one with her but also perhaps a split with a partner.

Nope definitely a FTB'er, just wanted her own place and fed up of renting. She was looking at both either a 1 or 2 bed.

She didn't really say anything that had me reaching for my wallet, just more disheartened by the market. Had clearly read a few of the 'how to buy a property and what to look out for' books.

Unfortunately not ! but was full of facts. I must admit I didn't know that if you were within a certain proximity of a church you have to contribute towards repairs of said church...learn something new every day!

Ah yes, spotted those. There are also some flats being built right opposite Queens Park station. Haven't had a chance to look at them yet but no doubt ££

Oh, ha. Honestly when you could see how frustrated she is with the market and not being able to find what she wanted...she was pretty genuine!

I have seen the 'hairgel' reference on here before, care to enlighten?

I went out for a quick Saturday morning viewing on the weekend near Queens Park, typically the place wasn’t great but oddly a queue of 4-5 people in front of me…probably only the second queue I have waited in. Anyway, I ended up speaking to a girl in the queue. She is absolutely adamant to buy, looks like a budget of 450-475k but was certainly searching the market. She was unaware of most of the underlying risks with the market (worrying) but was rather focused on snapping up something that remotely appealed, she was sharing stories of how she has found lots of property around Queens/Kilburn are getting snapped up before they even hit Rightmove which surprised me, as I have been speaking with 3 agents and none of them have put forward anything even remotely interesting. Personally I have decided to hold tight and continue renting but continue to review the market, it is worrying when figures like the below are out there, but can only guess that will vary heavily by area and perhaps accounts for the large surge of £1m+ sales after the election? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/11674108/Rush-to-buy-after-Conservative-victory-pushes-house-prices-to-record.html

She wasn't interested in it as a BTL, just another FTB. Had spotted the new BTR mentioned elsewhere.

Also intrigued where the 22% comes from vs LR. Great that the stalled/falling market is getting press, will raise awareness/red flags Within the London market it does seem to be on the £1m + properties at the moment, however given the stalled market I have seen in the west for the £450-550k range it shouldn't be long! Also spotted the point about some drops in the East, all good signs. Interestingly the colleague who was looking in the east has also now decided to stop looking as "I decided it just wasn't worth that much, for an area (Walthamstow/Woolwich Arsenal) that I don't actually like and will take an age to travel to, it was just about affordable though!".

Indeed ! and across all areas. When the east starts to follow the west cool off....that's when things will get more interesting.

Doesn't this all relate to prime e.g. Zone 1 - Kensington e.t.c property? I think it has been said a number of times that the £1m plus and other 'posher' parts of London are stagnating. Encouraging that our views on this is confirmed. I unfortunately do no think that includes the buying patterns many are seeing in the east as ultimately not prime.

Going back to the real subject, I can see a shock jolting us out of te That is exactly what I have seen Frizzers, but I am also seeing the west drop about 5% (typically £25k) on some of the original asking prices as lots of these properties have been on for months with no bites. Also agree it is good to jointly share of experiences of where upwards/downwards pressure are seen, it's the only realistic way of assessing the market and what is happening. When you look at all the downwards/upwards pressure, I do still think that a big jolt will start a decline in London(for how long is anyones guess) but the question is what jolt and when?

Also lets even say I manage to knock £100 pounds off, That's about £1060 including rail card to paddington. Plus 15 minutes walk to the station (at less frequent times than the tube), plus 40 minutes train travel. A solid extra 2 hour commute. That's 34% discount (i.e not 50%+) and not sure if that includes the council tax that mine does. Plus I have to live somewhere as crummy as that.

Ah yes Taplow is cheaper but that is one of the horrific parts I mentioned! It looks prime for demolition. I would very surprised if I got £100 off and I used to make my money negotiating.

You can't, that is only to a temporary place of work "You can’t claim for travelling to where you work, unless it’s a temporary place of work."

It doesn't really work out to be as big a difference as you would think. Yes the cheapest rental within a 1/2 mile of Maidenhead station from a quick search on rightmove is £925, most are £1100+ but lets go with a fairly horrific multi floor block at an average £1k, add to that the £280 monthly rail card to Paddington (until Crossrail comes in around 2019) So that's £1280, plus an extra 40 minute commute each way, a £320 saving which is closer to a 20% saving unfortunately and a considerably worse building/commute. I did a drive round all of these areas a few weeks ago and I can't say Maidenhead was particularly nice, Taplow in the main village area was lovely. There are some who haven't considered looking outside of London and some who have, I am the latter.

Sorry you did say shared accom, that's about £950 (Inc bills) to rent a decent sized room in a 4 bed shared property, still £11000 per year and all the hassle.

I have found there is very little difference between my max and medium (because of the London market), we are then talking really horrific council blocks that will fall quicker than what I am currently looking for. Looked outside, Taplow was a consideration but there is very little in the 'nice bit' and it's some council type house in between Taplow/Burnham, but at least it's a house. Also looked at Ewell which was nice in certain areas, but then some places that don't make the cut e.g. Stoneleigh, Reading No kids I haven't really looked at renting further out, I just had a quick look at Ewell on rightmove, £1300 for a 2 bed flat there plus I guess about £2k a year rail card and increased commute, no doubt cheaper areas though. A quite serious alternative is looking outside of the country, France is great value and I can speak the lingo....assuming there is a job available!

I didn't say I was going to buy now, in fact quite the contrary I said I was going to review in 2-3 months. I would absolutely love to see this market crash tomorrow !! although of course wonder to what level and how quickly. Ideally I would like to see 30% wiped off overnight, but realistically this probably won't happen....maybe a smallish shock (10-15%) and then a bigger drop over a number of years. The point being I pay £1600 a month in rent for just a roof over my head, over the course of a year that is nearly £20k a year down the pan (in my eyes). There are thousands of people in my position, all desperate to move out of this situation but either constrained by money or a valid fear of a big drop (I am the latter) I really don't think I have talked up the market, look back and you will see that I have stated all the downfalls and actually lots of the drops in the west of London/property sitting, but I have seen the odd nicer property go to STC (how real that is, another question) I take a balanced view, I see the negatives, I see the risks but I see the upward pressures as well. I could close my eyes and believe that there aren't queues of people queuing at some properties in the east of London (this was relayed to me by a colleague who is looking to buy and made an offer - rejected however because of the owner being greedy and wanting full asking, although her offer was still higher than someone else according to that EA), another friend has just paid and moved into a pretty average £380k for a 2 bed flat near Limehouse (personally I think this is silly for area). However I know the west seems to be busy with viewings but no one is biting - again I am the latter. Basically I keep my eyes/ears open and I will balance any risk against the £20k a year I lose in rent towards something that ultimately I do not own. Unfortunately for me and thousands of others, the government have been masterous (pleasant word for devious ...*naughty word*) at keeping the market high and feeling trapped in rental due to money constraints or valid fear of drops.