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Everything posted by thehowler
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I've been looking into the Customs Union/Customs Partnership conundrum - on the face of it you'd think most rebels/remainers/Labour would favour it as a solution. In essence, it seems to turn the UK into a giant free port, with sliding tariff rates depending on origin and destination of goods. It would keep us closely aligned with EU regulations, maintain full access to Single Market (for goods anyway) and solve the NI border issue. It's proxy EU membership - with a few fringe benefits to appease the brexiteers. I can see many reasons why the EU would reject it - but if they were to say they'd put the latest proposal to review it might rescue May, they'd get alignment and a lot of control. May could even put it to the HoC, win a vote against Mogg's marauders and stay in No.10. So what's not to like about the CP as a solution - other than it's complex and untested?
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All the Brexit action is founded on hope, IMHAL, whether you recognize it or not. The ref vote itself was people making their best guess combined with their desired/hoped-for outcome, like all votes. I don't see how you can deny hope as a catalyst and progressive force in all modern political events - as I've said before, what is a manifesto other than a declaration of hope based on best evidence/argument. I doubt if the Tories will set in place anything from their 2017 manifesto but they're still in government. My best assessment of likely Brexit outcomes leads me to think the UK won't suffer the predicted calamities and might actually benefit from the break - as will the EU. But I admit that this view is also influenced by the need to address the referendum vote itself and protect the myth/idea of democracy in the UK. And all the players are riddled and infected with hope too, it's the human condition. May's Custom Partnership is underpinned by her hoping she can squeeze it past the rebels and the EU will look the other way and give us special status, fearful that they'll get something worse if we break away. The other likely outcomes - capitulation on CU and snap election, Davis trying to caretake, May dragging things on until too late but to extend transition - are all driven by hopeful nutters, and it's one of those we'll be getting.
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Speaking to BBC Newsnight last night, Mr Dijsselbloem said: 'The people in the UK have to understand that Brexit is no longer on the front pages in Europe. Its on the front pages in the UK every day, one two and three. We have moved on... there is no drive to re-open this debate. I haven't heard anyone in Brussels argue for a second referendum.' Brits that want a second referendum: Tony Blair, Campbell, Adonis, Patrick Stewart...and Farage (though I think he's changed his mind now). Even Anna Soubry doesn't want a second referendum!
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Isn't the whole tiz about CP vs CU vs Max-Fac just us reaching the point where the governing politicos have to make a choice? I've heard noises out of Brussels this week and they're scared, they don't think May can fudge it much longer. We might actually have to leave. Is anyone really surprised that May looks wobbly? Parliament doesn't want to leave. May doesn't want to leave and so do/did most of her cabinet. May will do nothing, for as long as possible, and then vanish like Cameron did. I watched McDonnell on Marr this morning and if anyone thinks he gives a hoot about the EU they haven't been reading their red book correctly. What's more, his tactical vision for a better Brexit seems to rely on warmer negotiations with the EU, irrespective of their guiding principles, rules, core philosophy etc. Marr had to help him along, filling in the policy blanks. The Labour high command will walk away from the EU without a blink. I think either the EU throw May a line or we get a caretaker govt/snap election pretty soon.
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No prob, apology accepted. Nothing positive about this, a backward step, capitulation, return to a situation that the referendum was supposed to address. Nope, have made several (mostly abstract benefits, admittedly, given nature of Brexit and the fact we're discussing future outcomes) but you accept none of them.
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The way the flag is appropriated by different groups is fascinating, agree, but I don't share your view that it reflects a rise in right wing nationalism across the UK. I know this is a common refrain from remainers - as is the sense of statelessness you mention - but the BNP just lost their last seat this week, UKIP have all but vanished and though you might find some Brexiteers distasteful, they're nothing compared to the mobs of dangerous NF thugs that I saw rampaging on the streets of my home city every weekend throughout much of the 70s and 80s. I do not exaggerate, I was attacked many times and my memories of that time are still vivid. Many people have forgotten (or didn't grow up with) the political movement against the NF, the Rock Against Racism tours, the riots, Blair Peach, the marches, ANL, etc it's a long list, but I have not forgotten these things. I also grew up with relatives who had fought in WWII and described it as a battle against right wing nationalism. They were lefties, on the whole, who were proud of the Union Jack as a symbol of how they had seen off the right wing threat to world peace. I went to Brick Lane market a few weeks back and visited a few old haunts. In my 20s I went to the market every week and was always angered to see gangs of fascists handing out racist texts and chanting slogans, I joined demos against them. They're not there now - they would not be tolerated. We got into use of the flag a few pages back - Tom Daley's derriere made an appearance - it doesn't have to be a symbol of evil. In my more positive moments I wonder if Brexit might grant us another Cool Britannia phase (maybe it comes in 25 year cycles?) and the divisions within the UK regions can somehow be healed through a shared pride in Brit culture and place in the world.