The Preacherman

Yes I do. Therefore, where are the extra resources to mitigate the impact.

Deaths in April and May 2020 were only so large because of lockdown. Hospitals were only 60% full, deaths from treatable conditions increased and we gave up on treating anyone over 70.

Instead of defending this nonsense you should be directing the blame at the politicians. I have been saying since this started that the NHS was failing. I'm not blaming the staff but the politicians will.

We are not blaming the professionals in the NHS we are blaming the politicians. They have created a health service so fragile that we need to shut down the economy and society when a 'flu' pandemic arrives.

How about a large scale randomised controlled trial? With 6000 participants, half wearing masks half not. Its completed but the authors haven't published yet as the results aren't politically correct!

I quite agree but unfortunately this lack of leadership is screwing both the health and the economy of the nation over. (I see very few examples of genuine leadership in other countries.)

Table of England and Wales monthly deaths per million since 1995. Note: 1) Since July deaths are inline with deaths from previous years. 2)The level of deaths in May and June 2020 are not unprecedented. See January 1996, 1997, 1999 and 2000. (2000 was the last time I had the flu!)

Perhaps our politicians need to treat the British public with respect rather than patronising them. Maybe we'd be in a far better place with regards to excess deaths.

You are displaying extreme naivety. There is not the manufacturing capacity to deliver vaccines so choices will have to be made as to who gets vaccinated. I've no doubt health and care workers will be selected first but then do you risk inoculation of the most vulnerable as if triggers covid symptoms it will kill them. The logistical problems are not inconsiderable. Vaccines have a very short shelf life. Who is going to administer all these vaccines? Many doctors and nurse will not be happy to inject a vaccine that has seen short cuts taken in safety and efficacy testing. Finally, public uptake may end up being poor. But not to worry from the evidence from Sweden the UK can't be that far off herd immunity.

The vaccine is not coming - it is highly unlikely to be effective and the logistics of a mass inoculation programme are impossible. The story of the Czech Republic vs Sweden says it all - Sweden has the best approach.

First we should not have allowed the health service to get into the state it is in. However, we can't fix that overnight. Going forward we should manage on the basis of hospital admissions. We are nowhere near the situation in March/April and the admissions curve is turning over. It is only the North that is the problem. We coped OK in March/April, so we should be able to cope this time. I'd shut down the national tracing system. The resources released can be plowed in to local Covid management teams who would mange local public health response and monitor covid patients in the community. It would be up to a locality to decide the restrictions in the area according to the strain on local hospitals. The national approach should be similar to Sweden.

Mortgage is included in IVA so have kept house.

For once Neil Ferguson was right...

The virus is not political. Policies to manage the epidemic are. I'm feed up of people blaming job losses or NHS waiting lists on the virus. They are as a result of government policy.

I know an IT contractor who's just done a IVA to escape from an tax avoidance mess.

Many employers are reluctant to employ contracters in perm roles as they are seen to be at risk of jumping ship at the first opportunity.

A great article from Pharmaceutical Industry veteran on the science (or lack of it) behind mask wearing. https://www.aier.org/article/the-year-of-disguises/ The Year of Disguises "I chose not to wear face coverings for two reasons, the first is all of the above, and the second is that I have experienced this virus. When I see people with them, I think of virus heaven. But, I am also not afraid because this virus does not frighten me."

This is an appeal for people to attend hospital if they are ill! And an admission that lockdown has killed by scaring the critically ill from attending hospital.

Great article on the manufacturing and logistical challenges of rolling out a covid vaccine. In short the manufacturing capacity doesn't exist and there is isn't the cold supply chain to support huge quantities of vaccines that will need to be supplied. Particularly problematic are the RNA vaccines which need to be kept at -80°C and used within 24 hours! https://unherd.com/2020/10/will-a-vaccine-cure-covid/ Will a vaccine stop Covid? Even if it's effective, the logistics of delivering it are monumental

Bizarre tweet from Leo Varadkar. Apparently Irish hospitals are not suffering capacity problems and people shouldn't be scared away as they were in April and May. Why are they locking down again?

Agree debate needs to be more sober and rational going forward. I've seen very few attempts to understand and model seasonality which seems to be a massive factor with all respiratory viruses. Where do they go in Summer?

Levitt puts his hands up and says I got it wrong and here's why. That's what any responsible scientist should do. And he's got some great additional points to make. On testing “At some point we are going to get tired of testing. It’s a huge waste of money, which could much better go to helping people who have lost their jobs and homeless people. It’s great for the pharmaceutical companies selling test kits but it’s not doing anything good On why flu is more scary than Covid “Flu is much more devious than coronavirus…Flus cannot be easily tamed. They’re much too mutatable — coronaviruses by their nature are staid and have a relatively large genome, which is three times larger than the flu. It’s a single piece whereas flu’s genome is seven little pieces so it can swap pieces with other flus. It causes massive excess deaths year after year. I don’t think coronavirus where will be a winter wave of any substance. On returning to normality “Lack of normality is a terrible risk. We’ve torn the fabric of society and I would not be surprised if the risk of tearing society apart constitutes a 10 times higher excess death risk. People die from poverty, desperation and alcoholism. If we look at the statistics on alcohol consumption over the past month and we could easily see excess deaths. A strong smoker loses 10 years of life, which is 120 times higher risk. An alcoholic might lose four to five years of life from this compared to coronavirus.” On lockdown “It was probably wrong of me to say that lockdown was a mistake. If people have done it, they should be told that it was probably a good idea when they did it, but it’s no longer necessary and there’s nothing left to be frightened of. The damage caused by lockdown is something we will suffer but there’s no point in dwelling on it. Going forward we need to basically do whatever we can to get back to normal like schools starting or museums opening. “Panic shortens your life” Back in March my main aim was to stop the panic. Panic is dangerous and it shortens your life probably more than by a month so we need to think about that. What’s important is the values of our society. I asked in an earlier blog post: what can we do to stop this voluntary suicide of western civilisation. This is the choice that’s facing us: with ZeroCovid, you can pretty much guarantee that the demise of western civilisation will be greatly accelerated.

I can't see school closures happening on any scale, parents will not allow that to happen. Even Wales ducked that one and most kids will be back at school the week after half term.