jcpricewatcher Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 (edited) Where do you think we'll stand regarding London by end of 2009? Be interesting to see what people really think of the area which will allegedly hold up better than average... I'm talking about nominal prices (ie not inflation adjusted) Edited June 6, 2008 by jcpricewatcher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 'How higher?' 'How much lower' I think is the phrase. Anything less that 20% from peak (Aug 07) and I will do a Kirsty and eat my hat... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elizabeth Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 (edited) I was one of the conservatives that went for 2-10... but that was because you only asked about next year. I think they have to drop by about 75% before they are realistic. I figure, a flat I lived in in my old haut of Finsbury Park was valued at 65,000 in 1996. A flat in that building sold for 300,000 in 2003, therefore, factoring in inflation, another one sold for 286,000 in 2007 (my old flat) (the land registry has lost the entry for the first sale in 2002 for 228,000 or thereabouts). But I think the 65K was about right for that flat - at the time about 3 1/2 x the wages for a reasonable but not posh job. It was in a reasonable enough (sort of) but not posh area. It still is (and I am betting the locals are breathing a sigh of relief for the new aresenal stadium). Anyway I could have afforded the morgage and I could have afforded to save the deposit. Based on 3% inflation, in 2010 I reckon the corrected value of that flat, is about 98,000, but the economy will be so crank in 2010 that it may well hit a curve where it goes right back to the 1996 price. So my prediction is that the bottom trough will be the 1996 price without adjustment for inflation. Whatever the property! Good on the germans for being so conservative. Less swings and roundabouts. Edited June 6, 2008 by Elizabeth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Son of Taeper Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 I was one of the conservatives that went for 2-10... but that was because you only asked about next year. I think they have to drop by about 75% before they are realistic. I figure, a flat I lived in in my old haut of Finsbury Park was valued at 65,000 in 1996. A flat in that building sold for 300,000 in 2003, therefore, factoring in inflation, another one sold for 286,000 in 2007 (my old flat) (the land registry has lost the entry for the first sale in 2002 for 228,000 or thereabouts). But I think the 65K was about right for that flat - at the time about 3 1/2 x the wages for a reasonable but not posh job. It was in a reasonable enough (sort of) but not posh area. It still is (and I am betting the locals are breathing a sigh of relief for the new aresenal stadium). Anyway I could have afforded the morgage and I could have afforded to save the deposit. Based on 3% inflation, in 2010 I reckon the corrected value of that flat, is about 98,000, but the economy will be so crank in 2010 that it may well hit a curve where it goes right back to the 1996 price. So my prediction is that the bottom trough will be the 1996 price without adjustment for inflation. Whatever the property! Good on the germans for being so conservative. Less swings and roundabouts. About right I would say. As an aside, my grandparents had a house in Finsbury Park years back. A huge Victorian place with an outside loo. Got bombed in the war and all they got out was a chair with bits of bomb in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elizabeth Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 About right I would say. As an aside, my grandparents had a house in Finsbury Park years back. A huge Victorian place with an outside loo. Got bombed in the war and all they got out was a chair with bits of bomb in it. What? They didn't manage to retrieve 220K of get rich quick equity? Probably worked all their honest lives too. This actually really touches me. This is the real reason that houses are made. Not for young men in pin striped suits to scurry around making money over. But for people to live in while they build lives and families and stories and memories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcpricewatcher Posted June 7, 2008 Author Share Posted June 7, 2008 (edited) I was one of the conservatives that went for 2-10... but that was because you only asked about next year. I think they have to drop by about 75% before they are realistic. I figure, a flat I lived in in my old haut of Finsbury Park was valued at 65,000 in 1996. A flat in that building sold for 300,000 in 2003, therefore, factoring in inflation, another one sold for 286,000 in 2007 (my old flat) (the land registry has lost the entry for the first sale in 2002 for 228,000 or thereabouts). But I think the 65K was about right for that flat - at the time about 3 1/2 x the wages for a reasonable but not posh job. It was in a reasonable enough (sort of) but not posh area. It still is (and I am betting the locals are breathing a sigh of relief for the new aresenal stadium). Anyway I could have afforded the morgage and I could have afforded to save the deposit. Based on 3% inflation, in 2010 I reckon the corrected value of that flat, is about 98,000, but the economy will be so crank in 2010 that it may well hit a curve where it goes right back to the 1996 price. So my prediction is that the bottom trough will be the 1996 price without adjustment for inflation. Whatever the property! Good on the germans for being so conservative. Less swings and roundabouts. That's a very gloom and doom point of view! - The question is, the values very at their trough in 2006, is it not entirely possible it was in fact undervalued at the time? Personally, realistically, I wouldn't have thought that the flat you mention would fall under 150,000. Oh, btw, that 3% inflation figure is probably flawed, since as many people point out, real world inflation is higher. (Government seem to put iPods, TVs and other depreciating things in the inflation basket to keep it down!) Personally I reckon around minus 20-30% from today's figures. Believe it or not, people are still buying(!)... Edit: Added 'minus' in front of 20-30% just to clarify! Edited June 7, 2008 by jcpricewatcher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disillusioned Posted June 7, 2008 Share Posted June 7, 2008 Personally I reckon around 20-30% from today's figures. Believe it or not, people are still buying(!)... Oh, so that's your vote on the 'greater than +10% option. Bless! Why didn't you provide the same positive options as the negative ones if you really thought you'd get that much HPI? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcpricewatcher Posted June 7, 2008 Author Share Posted June 7, 2008 (edited) Oh, so that's your vote on the 'greater than +10% option. Bless! Why didn't you provide the same positive options as the negative ones if you really thought you'd get that much HPI? - Oops, I meant MINUS 20 - 30%! Given the current climate I've now gotten any change in house prices to be negative unless otherwise qualified Apologies for the confusion, however, bet it gave you a good chuckle. Edited June 7, 2008 by jcpricewatcher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disillusioned Posted June 7, 2008 Share Posted June 7, 2008 (edited) - Oops, I meant MINUS 20 - 30%! Given the current climate I've now gotten any change in house prices to be negative unless otherwise qualified Apologies for the confusion, however, bet it gave you a good chuckle. Well that saves me from posting this then: London falls by 1.5% in May I wonder who voted for >10% then?! Edited June 7, 2008 by Disillusioned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcpricewatcher Posted June 7, 2008 Author Share Posted June 7, 2008 (edited) Well that saves me from posting this then:London falls by 1.5% in May I wonder who voted for >10% then?! Don't know but it appeared soon after my original post. May have been someone having a laugh and trying to skew the stats... But then again you never know, Brown may pull a rabbit out of his hat and fix it all and give us a spring bounce in 2009? Edited June 7, 2008 by jcpricewatcher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crash2006 Posted June 7, 2008 Share Posted June 7, 2008 Where do you think we'll stand regarding London by end of 2009?Be interesting to see what people really think of the area which will allegedly hold up better than average... I'm talking about nominal prices (ie not inflation adjusted) I can let you know prices in central london are 8% 14 % lower already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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