Aim A Bubble To Come?

[Confounded]

I have the following simple thesis.

AIM stocks are only just starting to climb out of the hole created in the wake of the financial crisis. The first stocks to recover were the big cap dividend paying safety play, the FTSE 500 has also enjoyed a trebling over the last few years. I believe the mid to large cap stocks are likely to stagnate at best of over the next few years as the fight taper talk, fiscal scuffles and for earning to catch up with valuations.

The recent acceptance of AIM stocks into ISA gives people a vehicle to speculate in the these high risk stocks were all capital gains can be kept. I believe this bubble could be pretty quick one with perhaps a top as early as late 2015 but given the pace these stocks can move it could lead to some fantastic gains. I heavily use charts to pick stocks and there are more stocks i pick based on the charts than I have money to invest in atm.

I know many of the AIM stock have management that are parasites and use the company to draw disproportionate salaries, but in the world we live in with central banks doing what they do and bubbles now becoming part of the economic cycle this is looking to me like a situation were a rising tide will lift all, reducing the risk. Of course there will be the 100 baggers but even the worst may enjoy periods of share price rises of 2-300%.

Any views from fellow investors out there?

Edited September 28, 2013 by Confounded

[Confounded]

I have the following simple thesis.

AIM stocks are only just starting to climb out of the hole created in the wake of the financial crisis. The first stocks to recover were the big cap dividend paying safety play, the FTSE 500 has also enjoyed a trebling over the last few years. I believe the mid to large cap stocks are likely to stagnate at best of over the next few years as the fight taper talk, fiscal scuffles and for earning to catch up with valuations.

The recent acceptance of AIM stocks into ISA gives people a vehicle to speculate in the these high risk stocks were all capital gains can be kept. I believe this bubble could be pretty quick one with perhaps a top as early as late 2015 but given the pace these stocks can move it could lead to some fantastic gains. I heavily use charts to pick stocks and there are more stocks i pick based on the charts than I have money to invest in atm.

I know many of the AIM stock have management that are parasites and use the company to draw disproportionate salaries, but in the world we live in with central banks doing what they do and bubbles now becoming part of the economic cycle this is looking to me like a situation were a rising tide will lift all, reducing the risk. Of course there will be the 100 baggers but even the worst may enjoy periods of share price rises of 2-300%.

Any views from fellow investors out there?

Over 600 views and not a single comment, either my thesis is nuts or we are a lot earlier into this bubble than I thought.

[bearwithasorehead]

I have the following simple thesis.

AIM stocks are only just starting to climb out of the hole created in the wake of the financial crisis. The first stocks to recover were the big cap dividend paying safety play, the FTSE 500 has also enjoyed a trebling over the last few years. I believe the mid to large cap stocks are likely to stagnate at best of over the next few years as the fight taper talk, fiscal scuffles and for earning to catch up with valuations.

The recent acceptance of AIM stocks into ISA gives people a vehicle to speculate in the these high risk stocks were all capital gains can be kept. I believe this bubble could be pretty quick one with perhaps a top as early as late 2015 but given the pace these stocks can move it could lead to some fantastic gains. I heavily use charts to pick stocks and there are more stocks i pick based on the charts than I have money to invest in atm.

I know many of the AIM stock have management that are parasites and use the company to draw disproportionate salaries, but in the world we live in with central banks doing what they do and bubbles now becoming part of the economic cycle this is looking to me like a situation were a rising tide will lift all, reducing the risk. Of course there will be the 100 baggers but even the worst may enjoy periods of share price rises of 2-300%.

Any views from fellow investors out there?

I'll bite.

Sure, the ISA rules change will have a small effect, but you overestimate the influence of PIs on price. Any longer term trawl of stocks bbs shows thousands of 'gamblers' who think that their research and analysis and then comments will have an effect on price. It never does. The market makers and insitutional investors make the market (funnily enough) and this is as true of AIM as anywhere else.

You ignore spread as well which will kill you in AIM.

Finally, AIM is high risk whatever. Remeber the biotech ramping everywhere in the press 5 years ago? For every successful biotech I can name you 20 in AIM and other markets that failed and delisted losing PIs all their money.

Finally flawed logic in recovery lifting all. If anything, good companies get masked by the dross in an uptick/bull, making investing even more risky.

Good luck!

[Confounded]

I'll bite.

Sure, the ISA rules change will have a small effect, but you overestimate the influence of PIs on price. Any longer term trawl of stocks bbs shows thousands of 'gamblers' who think that their research and analysis and then comments will have an effect on price. It never does. The market makers and insitutional investors make the market (funnily enough) and this is as true of AIM as anywhere else.

You ignore spread as well which will kill you in AIM.

Finally, AIM is high risk whatever. Remeber the biotech ramping everywhere in the press 5 years ago? For every successful biotech I can name you 20 in AIM and other markets that failed and delisted losing PIs all their money.

Finally flawed logic in recovery lifting all. If anything, good companies get masked by the dross in an uptick/bull, making investing even more risky.

Good luck!

My assumption is that the private inverters will be forced to have more of an influence due to lack of return elsewhere and the current recovery in the AIM stocks encouraging more confidence.

As with any bubble there will be winners and looser, I do envisage a lot of people not understanding the impact of the spread, and making the mistake of trying to trade AIM shares which is almost impossible, however medium to long term holding make this spread irrelevant.

As you point out I not a believer in over thinking an AIM purchase, I look at the trend in the charts, the balance sheet, the product and make my decision after a few weeks of watching and research. I follow BB threads and as you say there are people on there that ramp, de-ramp, bicker and post detailed research with the belief they have found something no one else has that will lead to a massive increase in value.

AIM shares are high risk and even on relatively small holding the price fluctuation of my portfolio is not for the faint hearted. There are shares that I have invested in that have lost 30% in a few weeks to then go up 50% in a few days, however as discussed earlier I aim to be in stocks for 2 weeks to 6 months (mostly longer term due to my view on potential bubble). I don't operate stops due to not betting on margin, I accept that some shares may halve within weeks of a purchase. As you point out the MM are the ones that are guaranteed to make money on the AIM market. It is the most speculative of markets and I would not advocate people investing more than they can afford to loose.

I am not sure I agree my logic is flawed with a rising tide lifting all. It has been proving in all bubbles that this is the effect.

I may be wrong on calling a bubble and the AIM market could drift along with low volume leaving the traders to battle out a tough existence but currently I wish I had more money in my ISA (limited by the yearly allowance) to invested in some of the companies I follow. Companies that survived the great recession with stock price at fractions of a percent from 10 years ago (yes many have had to dilute their shares to raise capital over this period) however one company I am invested in voted yesterday at their AGM to start share buy backs.

My current felling is that this bubble may be a lot earlier in it's formation and having a lot longer to run than I initially thought, interesting times.

[bearwithasorehead]

I'd say we're still between 1 and 2. Many middle stocks still undervalued on PEs around 6-9

[bearwithasorehead]

snip

fair enough. I'd add though that AIM is still too much of hit and miss to be more than just gambling. You'd be better off looking at stocks between AIM and FTSE 100 that are underresearched and applying some good metrics like ROC, ratios like book to price, etc, have net debt as a filter, etc and then invest when they're at a low point in the cycle.

You can still trade this way on a 1month-6month basis.

[Confounded]

You'd be better off looking at stocks between AIM and FTSE 100 that are underresearched and applying some good metrics like ROC, ratios like book to price, etc, have net debt as a filter, etc and then invest when they're at a low point in the cycle.

You can still trade this way on a 1month-6month basis.

I do agree this is a safer haunting ground, one of my best Investments has been AGA, a very steady and strong rise, I intend to trade this through it's cycles.

I do agree AIM has been very hit and miss over the last 10 years, however the bulk of the share listed on the AIM market have either de-listed or declined significantly. The volume has been very low and has been the haunt of traders rather than investors. If the investors get the upper hand this should firm up the already general rising trend and take away some of the volatility which will lead to the bubble proper. As stated this is only a thesis and could be proven totally wrong!

[Confounded]

I'd say we're still between 1 and 2. Many middle stocks still undervalued on PEs around 6-9

Any tips on shares in this category. I am invested in AIM so am happy to take tips from forums and then do my own research!

[Confounded]

My feeling is we are at stage 2 although due to this being a monetary induced bull market (I suppose they all are in reality) I think it may be a bit turbo and move fairly quickly from 2 to 3.

[bearwithasorehead]

Personally, if I were to go down this route, I would develop a process and try and backtest it if you can.

I know Naked Trader fishes in this sort of pool and his own criteria are laregly a matter of public record including a screening out of over indebted entities etc. In his book he also describes what tools he uses for stock screening. I didn't enjoy reading it because he has a somewhat peurile style - but it is very easy to read and makes sense as to why it would work.

Another key part of his selection process is not just having a list of 'favourite' stocks, but also a key element for timing his investment which is buying strength. i.e. it's not just how good and attractive the stock is, but timing the allocation of your scarce capital to higher chances of a return in meaningful timescales. You can't know everything about a stock and the price move is a key piece of information itself worth listening to.

the last point is very important. It's all very well to identify a great stock with a low PEG and low debt, but what if it is at an all time high? If you're investing in an ISA and you buy this stock you might not get any return in a meaningful timeframe if you are aiming to grow capital.

For me two major tools are PEG (P/E ratio ÷ Annual EPS Growth) which is more revealing than PE.

The other is EV/EBITDA - this gives 'enterprise multiple'.

Both are easily available online for all companies. - you can use morningstar but I think only for a limited number of searches.

[bearwithasorehead]

Any tips on shares in this category. I am invested in AIM so am happy to take tips from forums and then do my own research!

no tips, but interesting companies from various sectors in the 250 are

FXPO - Ukrainian iron ore - country risk, high volatility but market leader. An alternative commodities punt with some protection built in.

FENNER - make conveyor belts and parts - another commodities punt with some risk hedged as they monopolise replacement parts.

PENNON - west country utilities - alternative to big utilities, which, imho are a big risk at the moment.

GREGGS - have fallen a lot, maybe worth a punt, but some lack of clarity in terms of profitability long term (franchise risks)

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS - have fallen big time, some good ratios, but perhaps their market too difficult to research easily.

HALMA - supply of visual warning systems, toxic gas and smoke detectors, electronic alarm systems and water leakage detectors - hugely safe, but high priced stock

LAIRD - wireless and telephony - interesting company with significant growth prospects albeit with risks.

DIPLOMA - excellent company making all kinds of bits and bobs. Very high share price!

RIGHTMOVE (just a joke....)

These are but a few shares from the constituent list. Another interesting fact is that most pay an ok dividend. I've owned some of these and when I've sold them I've usually regretted it as they've powered on to higher and higher prices.

THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

[Confounded]

Personally, if I were to go down this route, I would develop a process and try and backtest it if you can.

I know Naked Trader fishes in this sort of pool and his own criteria are laregly a matter of public record including a screening out of over indebted entities etc. In his book he also describes what tools he uses for stock screening. I didn't enjoy reading it because he has a somewhat peurile style - but it is very easy to read and makes sense as to why it would work.

Another key part of his selection process is not just having a list of 'favourite' stocks, but also a key element for timing his investment which is buying strength. i.e. it's not just how good and attractive the stock is, but timing the allocation of your scarce capital to higher chances of a return in meaningful timescales. You can't know everything about a stock and the price move is a key piece of information itself worth listening to.

I have read his original book and agree it was pretty tough going at times but did find it pretty interesting and fitting in with previous style/view. Totally agree timing is everything, being right about a stock but hitting a period of consolidation does not make for very good returns.

[Confounded]

no tips, but interesting companies from various sectors in the 250 are

FXPO - Ukrainian iron ore - country risk, high volatility but market leader. An alternative commodities punt with some protection built in.

FENNER - make conveyor belts and parts - another commodities punt with some risk hedged as they monopolise replacement parts.

PENNON - west country utilities - alternative to big utilities, which, imho are a big risk at the moment.

GREGGS - have fallen a lot, maybe worth a punt, but some lack of clarity in terms of profitability long term (franchise risks)

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS - have fallen big time, some good ratios, but perhaps their market too difficult to research easily.

HALMA - supply of visual warning systems, toxic gas and smoke detectors, electronic alarm systems and water leakage detectors - hugely safe, but high priced stock

LAIRD - wireless and telephony - interesting company with significant growth prospects albeit with risks.

DIPLOMA - excellent company making all kinds of bits and bobs. Very high share price!

RIGHTMOVE (just a joke....)

These are but a few shares from the constituent list. Another interesting fact is that most pay an ok dividend. I've owned some of these and when I've sold them I've usually regretted it as they've powered on to higher and higher prices.

THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

Thank you, for the list, I appreciate this is not advice, and thank you for the tip with Morningstar, I currently use ADVFN and MoneyAM but Morningstar looks to have a good layout/summary.

[bearwithasorehead]

Thank you, for the list, I appreciate this is not advice, and thank you for the tip with Morningstar, I currently use ADVFN and MoneyAM but Morningstar looks to have a good layout/summary.

try this for a good layout, albeit at the cost of easily accessible detail

http://www.halifaxmarketwatch.co.uk/

[Confounded]

try this for a good layout, albeit at the cost of easily accessible detail

http://www.halifaxmarketwatch.co.uk/

Halifax is much easier to use for research than Barclays where I trade my ISA, been playing with Morningstar, starting to get the felling I need a multiple screen set up to display all the resources....

[bearwithasorehead]

Halifax is much easier to use for research than Barclays where I trade my ISA, been playing with Morningstar, starting to get the felling I need a multiple screen set up to display all the resources....

What I do is have google finance set up to manage my entire portfolio as an overview. It is still Beta and subject to inaccuracies, lags and delayed data, but as long as you don't rely for minute-to-minute info it's a good management tool.

Then when I do research I use the tools we've already discussed plus iii discussion boards and a good old notebook.

Of course I also use Excel for keeping track of things and for calculating XIRR

[Confounded]

Well 6 months on from starting my strategy it has been an interesting ride with the AIM market still being very unloved and volatile. However I sense that things have turned in the AIM markets. The turn around in my portfolio since March this year has been remarkable with my total combined portfolio being up 40% with the main market being pretty flat in the time I have been investing since September.

Virtually all the aim shares I have owned have falling up 40% percent on initial investment in the time that I have held them. However when you hold a share in loss it does motivate much more thorough research than when you jump on and ride an upward wave. My strategy has been to put in a meaningful investment at the start but with the intention off adding if further developments allow. This has allowed me to quadruple my holding in companies that have slumped and my research convinced me to buy more.

Many of the shares I own I have targets of double or even quadrupling from here this year, time will tell if the rest of my plan works. However as I stated in my initial post the downside risk in the shares I owned looked to be 50% the upside could be 10 fold increase in some of them. AIM looks to me to offer a fair risk reward to me, although you have to filter the AIM share that have solid business models that do look only to have a limited downside risk (really only factoring in natural volatility and not anticipated bad news!). I have watched some share on AIM in the time I have had my portfolio loose 80% of there value.

As I predicted at the start of this thread with the main market looking like it will trade sideways at best I believe this will drive more interest into the AIM market, with the government increasing ISA allowance, allowing AIM share to be put in them and removing stamp duty from AIM share purchases seems to a deliberate ploy of the government to bolster the AIM environment.

One thing is for sure is there are a lot of investors who have been stung by AIM and sentiment is still very negative despite the new changes the government have introduced. As we know on HPC there are few unloved markets out there ATM and I am still sniffing bargains.

Edited May 4, 2014 by Confounded

[Confounded]

Well things certainly seem to be hotting up with two of my holding up 200-300% in the last month and two up 50% with one at even and one down 50%, both of the weaker ones were not added to so are a fraction of my main holdings.

Altogether my ISA is up a tax free 150% since i started the thread with the main index flat.

These moments of euphoria as shown in my portfolio currently are normally a good indicator of a pause and consolidation, however even the ones the are up 200-300% are till full holdings without any top slicing the value still seems to be there.

Just wanted to update on progress and the AIM environment inside an ISA is looking a good place to be so far as laid out in my original post.

[The Masked Tulip]

Did you invest in QPP - it seems to have a core of retail investors who will broker no questioning of it?

[The Masked Tulip]

How do you think AIM stocks will act in any sustained drop on the FTSE/US markets?

[Confounded]

Hi The Masked Tulip,

I did not invest in QPP, I favor value investing and have mainly been focusing on the Oil and gas sector because it has been in a bear market for a good few years and some of the valuations are crazy low. One stock I am most heavily invested in is up nearly 300% on my average and could go 100% again before the valuation would be getting punchy. This is without exuberance up.

If we get a severe main index correction the AIM market will suffer severely, vigilance is needed at all times.

[The Masked Tulip]

Hi The Masked Tulip,

I did not invest in QPP, I favor value investing and have mainly been focusing on the Oil and gas sector because it has been in a bear market for a good few years and some of the valuations are crazy low. One stock I am most heavily invested in is up nearly 300% on my average and could go 100% again before the valuation would be getting punchy. This is without exuberance up.

If we get a severe main index correction the AIM market will suffer severely, vigilance is needed at all times.

Thanks.

[Confounded]

Well another good week for my portfolio with one of my core holding ups 400% and sold at an intra day high on Monday. It then went on to fall 30% from that point during the week but may well stabalise and go on further. So 400% in 6 months is very much in line with my original post. I have another stock (my biggest holding) that is up 300% but come off 25% from that high but I have kept my whole holding as using the same metrics that led me to sell the other one I still believe it could treble from this level with the right news and conditions. Most of the action in my portfolio is with the oilers at the moment. They have been through a very tough phase and become so undervalued that if you pick the correct one it can lead to the speculate gain being seen when the right news comes.

One of the stocks I had researched but not invested in went up 230% on Friday.

Over my whole ISA I have nearly trebled it since I seriously started taking this higher risk strategy in Autumn last.

[bearwithasorehead]

Well another good week for my portfolio with one of my core holding ups 400% and sold at an intra day high on Monday. It then went on to fall 30% from that point during the week but may well stabalise and go on further. So 400% in 6 months is very much in line with my original post. I have another stock (my biggest holding) that is up 300% but come off 25% from that high but I have kept my whole holding as using the same metrics that led me to sell the other one I still believe it could treble from this level with the right news and conditions. Most of the action in my portfolio is with the oilers at the moment. They have been through a very tough phase and become so undervalued that if you pick the correct one it can lead to the speculate gain being seen when the right news comes.

One of the stocks I had researched but not invested in went up 230% on Friday.

Over my whole ISA I have nearly trebled it since I seriously started taking this higher risk strategy in Autumn last.

Nice one. Are all these AIM stocks?

[Confounded]

Hi BWSH, all aim and steering clear of anything I can't assign a valuation to. LGO was the one I made 400% on, bought just under 1p and sold for 3.9p. CAZA is the other one up 300% but I am still holding.

I prefer oil stock that are already producing and have periods of news ahead of them (hopefully good). Most of the AIM stocks I have owned have been down 30-50% prior to them taking off so even better entry points were to be had for some. In March my whole portfolio was only up 5% erasing some of the gains from a non AIM stock (AGA) I bough last summer before switching strategy. AGA went up 70 on my averaged up holding and over 100% on the original stake. Now my whole portfolio is up 200%. I run both mine and my wife's ISA.

I tend to go in with an initial stake and average down or up providing I am still confident in the business. I have got two holdings as per an earlier post that did not work out, one is down 50% and another was flat after holding for 6 months. One is sold and the 50% drop I have average down because I still believe in the business, but still not gone in with a big holding.

The reality is you can have pain of "loosing" several thousand pounds on a holding, but the rewards can (and have been) many £10K's, so as per my original post the risk reward stacks up fine for me.

Overall I sense the AIM market strengthening and after the last month with several stocks gong up hugely, this is creating cash for reinvestment in other AIM stocks, as I am doing.

Of course there are some train wrecks on AIM QPP, Blur, TRP to name a few and they are the risks, but as per my earlier statement if you can determine intrinsic value (does not have to be profit making) then that does seem to filter a lot of the trouble makers.

I know I will have my disasters and I guess down 50% on one stock is just that, but the over all thesis from last year still seems intact and I suspect just about to hot up.