lolacarrascal Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 terrace house price by region Q1 2003 to Q2 2011 (re-based Q1 2003 = 100%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 semi-detached house price by region Q1 2003 to Q2 2011 (re-based Q1 2003 = 100%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 detached house price by region Q1 2003 to Q2 2011 (re-based Q1 2003 = 100%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 (edited) detached bungalow price by region Q1 2003 to Q2 2011 (re-based Q1 2003 = 100%) Edited August 5, 2011 by lolacarrascal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Second leg down? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 apartment price by region Q1 2003 to Q2 2011 (re-based Q1 2003 = 100%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 Thanks for the updates - doesn't look like HPI any time soon. Ta, just punching in the data at the minute, havn't really had a chance to consider what this quarter's figures are telling us. Anyone care to summarise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 northern ireland house type price index Q1 2003 to Q2 2011 (re-based Q1 2003 = 100%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 UU sample size 2003 Q1 - 2011 Q2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Ta, just punching in the data at the minute, havn't really had a chance to consider what this quarter's figures are telling us. Anyone care to summarise? No spring bounce. Going down, steady as she goes. After Spring and with 0.5% interest rates. Any sort of accelerant applied (interest rates, NAMA & 2 local banks get fed up and race each other to offload property, tighter lending, job losses, double dip, benefit cuts, energy price rises, vacant rates, driving costs, eating costs, vat, inflation, worsening sentiment..... take your pick) will move things up a gear. It's simply a matter of time. Holidays over, back to school, dark nights and Christmas bills to look forward to Breaking news BBC Standard & Poor to downgrade USA. Dearer borrowing for all. Reality and logic appear to have collided at long last. A benign conjuncture for all on HPC, Gawd bless em. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 (edited) No spring bounce. Going down, steady as she goes. After Spring and with 0.5% interest rates. Any sort of accelerant applied (interest rates, NAMA & 2 local banks get fed up and race each other to offload property, tighter lending, job losses, double dip, benefit cuts, energy price rises, vacant rates, driving costs, eating costs, vat, inflation, worsening sentiment..... take your pick) will move things up a gear. It's simply a matter of time. Holidays over, back to school, dark nights and Christmas bills to look forward to Breaking news BBC Standard & Poor to downgrade USA. Dearer borrowing for all. Reality and logic appear to have collided at long last. A benign conjuncture for all on HPC, Gawd bless em. The data was rebased to Q1 2003 as I have been thinking recently that this could be the nominal bottom so RV - 20% is my target price to get back in and to give me a hedge against inflation when the impact of QE 3 / 4 / & 5 hits Edited August 5, 2011 by lolacarrascal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 The data was rebased to Q1 2003 as I have been thinking recently that this could be the nominal bottom so RV - 20% is my target price to get back in and to give me a hedge against inflation when the impact of QE 3 / 4 / & 5 hits We may get there sooner than you think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 We may get there sooner than you think. We are there already with repos and other motivated sellers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 We are there already with repos and other motivated sellers Honestly great stuff. Thanks for all the effort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fivecups Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I can't download any of these .pdfs. It says attachment not found. They look very interesting, I'd appreciate if you could reupload. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 I can't download any of these .pdfs. It says attachment not found. They look very interesting, I'd appreciate if you could reupload. Mods - is this a technical or 'legal' problem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Updated all house prices by region 2003Q1-20114 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Updated house type prices 2003-2011 Q4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Updated UUJ sample size 2003-2011Q4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Updated house price indicies for Northern Ireland 2005-2011Q4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Great work yet again. Fascinating depiction of what they are reporting - making a bit more sense to me as the (pass remarkable) ups and downs revert to the averages over slightly longer timeframes than the quarterly snapshot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 (edited) Great work yet again. Fascinating depiction of what they are reporting - making a bit more sense to me as the (pass remarkable) ups and downs revert to the averages over slightly longer timeframes than the quarterly snapshot. In a previous thread, you and Doccyboy and I discussed sticking points in the housing market and I was surprised by your anecodal view that the top and bottom were correcting and that the middle hadn't to the same extent. The attached data tends to support your position if SD house type is taken as a proxy for the middle of the market. (NB for 2003Q1 data missing, the next available data point was used, was going to do same for missing 2011 data but had to go too far back and was therefore misleading) Edited February 10, 2012 by lolacarrascal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It's good to find data to back up our anecdotal evidence. Incidentally 2 of my bookmarks dropped over 30K today which surprised me since they had been stuck at the high price for over a year. Maybe sentiment will change after all in the mid range. It's changing already. It has to - if they wan't to sell. It is the final piece of the jigsaw. If the market is ever to normalise, it can't just correct at the extremes - though it will start there and be most visible earliest - it must be all over and the middle, with it's advantages will take longest. When the middle falls properly into line then everyone can start discussing bottoms. It was said at the start of this by a Minister that some were having a good recession - he was thinking of middle homeowners with mortgages who kept their jobs (and enjoyed low interest rates). That has changed and a large sub section of who he was referring to - the public sector and professionals - now fear for their jobs and conditions as do many others with no end in sight. Quite a few overstreched by equity withdrawl and further property investment and hoped things would turn. They are now, slowly, facing reality which is difficult because these types more than any, have difficulty in admitting they were wrong and have images to upkeep. Pensioners and soon to be pensioners are also getting hammered. Mr and Mrs above average (or who aspired to be, with little obvious means) are in this group and are suffering like everyone else. 4 things have changed since the early days and expectations of this. The length of time and severity of this - we are actually going backwards. Inflation Sentiment Uncertainty. Very powerful factors. No one lives in a bubble. Not even the middle of the housing market, eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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