The possibility of violent Protests In Ireland (?)

[indirectapproach]

"Trade. When there's people willing to buy, there will always be someone willing to sell to them. As it has always been."

People do not buy from people that cannot be trusted.

And,

"there's who owes you your money, now get 'em working....."

Is hardly a trust creating negotiating position.

And trade requires a market.

We're not talking about some spud farmer here. We're talking about a fully developed Western nation that's toying with the idea of trying to dig itself out of its hole.

[pandora's box]

People do not buy from people that cannot be trusted.

Can you provide examples?

[Charlie The Tramp Returns]

Can you provide examples?

I can, Charlie The Tramp Returns.

[indirectapproach]

A truism of that ilk does not require examples.

[pandora's box]

A truism of that ilk does not require examples.

I trust nobody - but I'll still buy if I know I'm getting a good deal.

[indirectapproach]

How do you know you're getting a good deal?

How do you know what you've bought will be fit for purpose tomorrow or next week?

How do you know the person you've paid won't issue a writ for further payment and tie you up vexatious litigation?

How do you know you have not done business with someone of ill will that is just waiting to stab you in your back just as soon as you turn it?

How much does it cost you to pay someone to watch your back, always?

Do you have eyes in the back of your head?

Do they ever sleep?

You think you know.

You think you trust no one.

I don't think you do.

[pandora's box]

How do you know you're getting a good deal?

How do you know what you've bought will be fit for purpose tomorrow or next week?

How do you know the person you've paid won't issue a writ for further payment and tie you up vexatious litigation?

How do you know you have not done business with someone of ill will that is just waiting to stab you in your back just as soon as you turn it?

How much does it cost you to pay someone to watch your back, always?

Do you have eyes in the back of your head?

Do they ever sleep?

You think you know.

You think you trust no one.

I don't think you do.

Wow

You seem rather untrusting yourself.

[indirectapproach]

Well, I try to avoid doing business with people I don't trust.

[copydude]

Well this is another very sad thing,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/26/ireland-hurries-bailout-portugal-spain

The Irish elect someone from Sinn Fein so the interest rates being talked about for their bail out jump from 6.75% to 9%.

This is moving so fast, isn't it.

I was reading up and listening the radio and stuff - only a couple of hours ago . . . and there was the impression that a deal could be done if the rates were acceptable. The Trades Union guy was talking to someone from the FG party . . . who kinda denied rates over 6% had ever been talked about. The rate discussion was a feature of today's protest.

Well, if 9% comes out of the negotiations tomorrow . . . Sunday Bloody Sunday.

Swiftly followed by Black Monday.

[indirectapproach]

I think it's worth remembering the UK had an IMF bail out in 1976.

These things are unfortunate but they're less bad than a war.

But it seems the government is suffering an utter collapse of ability to negotiate sensibly and the people are panicked into this Sinn Fein nonsense and there is no steady hand on the tiller of the ECB or the IMF.

What a mess.

[Charlie The Tramp Returns]

I think it's worth remembering the UK had an IMF bail out in 1976.

In today`s terms it was just petty cash, £3 billion then is only equal to £10 billion today. I don`t remember everyone having to tighten their belts, the majority did not even know about that bail out and just carried on as normal. In fact from 1974 to 1979 financially was the most successful time of my life.

[indirectapproach]

I think that those who participated in the winter of discontent might recall it slightly differently.

[pandora's box]

I think that those who participated in the winter of discontent might recall it slightly differently.

I was there. I queued for bread. It was fun.

[shipbuilder]

"Trade. When there's people willing to buy, there will always be someone willing to sell to them. As it has always been."

People do not buy from people that cannot be trusted.

And,

"there's who owes you your money, now get 'em working....."

Is hardly a trust creating negotiating position.

And trade requires a market.

We're not talking about some spud farmer here. We're talking about a fully developed Western nation that's toying with the idea of trying to dig itself out of its hole.

If Irish companies have something at the right price that people want to buy, people will buy. If the Irish market is there and there is money to be made, it will not be ignored. It's that simple. A truism as well, if you like.

[Charlie The Tramp Returns]

I think that those who participated in the winter of discontent might recall it slightly differently.

That was 3 years after the IMF bail out, that little problem was caused because inflation was 13.5% and wage rises were offered at around 5% way below the inflation rate. Prices and incomes were way out of kilter and the proletariat were not accepting it.

[indirectapproach]

"If Irish companies have something at the right price that people want to buy, people will buy."

Where are Irish companies going to get the capital to compete with the emerging (low cost) economies if Ireland spits in the face of the international money markets?

[shipbuilder]

"If Irish companies have something at the right price that people want to buy, people will buy."

Where are Irish companies going to get the capital to compete with the emerging (low cost) economies if Ireland spits in the face of the international money markets?

I would imagine that they would become pretty low cost themselves in the process. Remember everyone owns their own homes, no debt and a motivated workforce. Would a lack of trust allow international companies to ignore an English speaking country close to Europe with a low cost workforce? Would banks be able to ignore Irish companies in such a position?

Edited November 27, 2010 by shipbuilder

[indirectapproach]

Yes, obviously, because you would have just done that which is anathema to international companies.

If you rip up the balance sheet .... once ..... shame on you .... if you rip up the balance sheet twice ..... shame on me.

Who wants that risk?

And although past performance is no guarantee, it's a good guide.

If you think you are gonna get any business if you rip up the balance sheet and then present yourself at the door of anyone who can pay, suited, booted, bright eyed and bushy tailed, next Monday morning and say,

"But it's all different now,"

I think you are wrong.

And international companies will not much care what language your work force speaks. It's not as if they want to speak to them.

Edited November 27, 2010 by indirectapproach

[indirectapproach]

"Would a lack of trust allow ..."

Ho ho.

Edited November 28, 2010 by indirectapproach

[stormymonday_2011]

I think it's worth remembering the UK had an IMF bail out in 1976.

These things are unfortunate but they're less bad than a war.

But it seems the government is suffering an utter collapse of ability to negotiate sensibly and the people are panicked into this Sinn Fein nonsense and there is no steady hand on the tiller of the ECB or the IMF.

What a mess.

.

History will influence how this plays out. The last major application of 'market forces' by a foreign power on the Irish people led to the death of over 750,000 Irish men, women and children from famine and disease in the years 1848-1851 (10% of the total population). Many others were evicted from their small holdings and forced to emigrate. In some parts of Ireland the population did not regain its pre famine levels until he last decade of the 20th Century.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_%28Ireland%29

Those sort of events tend to leave a scar on a nations memory that is every bit as bad as any war. .I am no lover of Sinn Fein but they played a pivotal role in Irelands struggle for Independence from foreign rule. It is no surprise that they are picking up votes now.

BTW the suggestion that the UK IMF bailout in 1976 is somehow analagous with what is being proposed for Ireland now does not really stand up to any close examination. The amount of the IMF aid to the UK back then was tiny by comparison to what Ireland needs now, In addition the the British government repaid the amount it borrowed within 18 months. The Irish will be paying their loan back for decades. It is a bit like comparing someone who borrowed a tenner with someone who is taking out a 20 year mortgage.

Edited November 28, 2010 by realcrookswearsuits

[indirectapproach]

Oh come on.

The potato thing was Irish on Irish.

The people who controlled Ireland were Irish as can be seen from their houses in Ireland, not absentee's gaffs and their graves, which you will find in Ireland.

It is the Irish talent for saying "everyone else's fault but mine," when it isn't, which is contributory to them landing themselves in the schtook again.

[indirectapproach]

As if any one cares what you think,

http://www.castletownhouse.ie/

[indirectapproach]

But of course.

I just have the well placed linkie that proves my point.

You just have your empty boorishness, which one expects and makes allowances for.

Being from the land of sick bunnies takes its toll.

[shipbuilder]

Yes, obviously, because you would have just done that which is anathema to international companies.

If you rip up the balance sheet .... once ..... shame on you .... if you rip up the balance sheet twice ..... shame on me.

Who wants that risk?

And although past performance is no guarantee, it's a good guide.

If you think you are gonna get any business if you rip up the balance sheet and then present yourself at the door of anyone who can pay, suited, booted, bright eyed and bushy tailed, next Monday morning and say,

"But it's all different now,"

I think you are wrong.

And international companies will not much care what language your work force speaks. It's not as if they want to speak to them.

You're speculating as much as I am as to what would happen in a default scenario. You say the worst case scenario is that no company will trade with Ireland. My opinion is that simply won't happen - companies don't ignore markets or educated low cost workforces. Is there a historical precedent that points either way? I don't know.

Would banks charge a punitive interest rate to Irish companies or simply not lend at all? Even with cost of capital at high levels, Ireland are surely better off in my scenario.

Edited November 28, 2010 by shipbuilder

[indirectapproach]

It is my understanding that when Argentina defaulted interest rates went to 67%.

They are now at 17%.

Last year they were 20%.

I think default and messing about with Sinn Fein would have a catastrophic impact on Irish trade.