NorthamptonBear

If spare parts aren't available, just normal wear and tear will be enough. As for civil disobedience or sabotage, it only takes a few motivated people - a hot current war is a big motivator. Younger people will see enough info to make a decision, especially technically skilled people. Damaging infrastructure isn't as morally hard as harming a person. Even walking off the job, skipping some maintenance tasks, inability to access technical documentation will have an effect. Siemens and other companies must have evacuated non-Russian staff by now which again will have an effect. I'll look out for indications that infrastructure is starting to go a bit Pete.

There must be plenty of Russians with Ukrainian heritage, anti-Putin beliefs or actual Ukrainians in Russia who could cause some kind of problem with logistics in Russia. Rail system is vulnerable to that or sanctions, Siemens and Siemens Energy (mainly transmission/grid electricity) are still providing support for now but that could change. One article suggests that new parts won't be delivered - https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-02/card/siemens-freezes-new-business-in-russia-vyvDY3YfEN0XwSdbcEX2 How many spare parts have Russia got? Presumably few as Siemens would have been in charge of ordering, wouldn't have been warned to stockpile, worldwide shortage of grid-level electricity kit and probably rail too at the moment and would have probably been operating on Just In Time principles. Parts might come from China if a local partner is in charge (but risky sanctions-wise), but no parts from China or elsewhere if Siemens are in control. Russia is not Soviet Union, it is tightly integrated into the world economy and supply chains. I think Putin didn't understand this. Russia might grind to a halt - hopefully soon and affecting military logistics mostly.

Sources seem to be Israeli or https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/profile-sabereen-news - which seems to be unreliable. Also reported by an Iranian based news organisation - https://en.mehrnews.com/news/184750/US-base-in-Erbil-comes-under-drone-attcaks Overall, I'd say it's nothing much. USA needs Iran at the moment, Russians trying to stop current talks and some Iranian hardliners might be trying to cause trouble, so best to ignore provocations from those elements.

Some stuff coming out about Guido Fawkes being paid by Russian he suspected of being a spy, huge number of articles against those trying to expose Russian influence and trying to get Tories & BNP to join forces many years ago. Impossible to know about his finances as his companies are in Hong Kong (really - why?) and offshore

Source?

And what may happen in Belarus is a factor too. I simply don't know what level of control Lukashenko has and whether sanctions on HIS oligarchs, security and military might be more or less effective. It seems (according to some sources) that Belarus troops aren't keen on fighting. I wonder whether there is anti-Putin or nationalistic feelings that might come into play. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60691858 Behind paywall - claims that Russia sending modern weapons to Belarus - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/11/ukraine-news-war-russia-sanctions-putin-kyiv-latest/ Also nuclear weapon sabre rattling from Belarus - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/belarus-holds-referendum-to-renounce-non-nuclear-status Not sure how all this is affected by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances#2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

Fascinating - Oxford Union - uploaded yesterday - discussing Russia/Ukraine and much more

Oh, that Christopher Steele? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Steele Putin is an organised criminal, using networks, professional media, lobbyists, financial and legal advisors, - these networks must be broken - the criminals and their enablers must distrust others, we need some serious work to make them inform on others, break the silence and trust My emphasis

The war was here a long time ago. Not a hot war, not nuclear, but corrupting and evil. It has to be stopped and undone. We need action and we need the truth. There is huge risk, but making Putin look weak and foolish is important to prevent further attacks from Sauds, Xi and others. Salisbury Chemical weapons London radioactive poisoning Number of odd deaths in UK of Putin's critics ERG takeover of Conservative Party. Funding, direction and support from loss making media Brexit Culture Wars, hate, division in UK and many other countries Bribery, corruption, laundering stolen money, parking money in UK - often overpriced UK homes, trickling down to the rest of us.

Series of letters supposedly outlining how FSB are trying to frame the narrative internally and externally - this is the latest one. TLDR: FSB shocked by invasion, painted rosy picture pre-war to keep bosses happy, can't believe invasion happened, chaos in invasion force, economy in peril, assurances to China of short invasion, will lose Chinese support, China will choose Europe over Russia, can't afford to be included in sanctions, Iran & Venezuela can replace Russian oil. Narrative that USA set a trap for Russia (Russia as victim again). The key element to Russian negotiation aims is to neuter Ukrainian anti-misinformation, so eventually FSB can eat Ukraine from within through culture wars, lies etc. Attempts will be made at highest levels with foreign contacts/governments to control Ukraine and force a peace to Russia's liking. My thoughts are that this is what the trolls, Russian agents and their collaborators/Quislings will be pushing here and elsewhere. Beware of lobbyists, journalists and politicians showing their true colours.

According to a tweet* pre-recorded and orchestrated "main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9)... acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion". I have no way of verifying this. *Tweet / video link at bottom of twitter thread

I haven't seen this posted, but hard to keep up and unfortunately, it's the Daily Mail https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10603045/Putin-places-head-FSBs-foreign-intelligence-branch-house-arrest.html Claims: Embezzlement of FSB's Ukraine "destabilising funds" (imagine how many houses could have been bought in London from these and other "destabilising funds"), pre-invasion optimistic predictions from FSB (telling chiefs what they want to hear), eight Generals sacked. I can't see it mentioned anywhere else, so unreliable info at moment. Housing related, I've seen some tweets for analysing NEW listings of property for sale in Crimea and suggesting many sellers are FSB or part of Russia's Crimea administration. Again, unsure of accuracy, but maybe something to keep an eye on or as a thought experiment - what would be good early warning signs of effects on or losing faith in Putin/invasion?

Important post. Unprofitable media owned by billionaires for vanity or power isn't independent or reliable. Edit: Roman senators used bread and circuses, gladiatorial games to build clients and mobs in order to gain power. Money, blood and pain as tools Murkoch/evil brothers use media to gain power, generate hate and xenophobia. Bent cucumbers and banning "our bangers" have been headlines for years.

FTFY

Since Putin's UK stooges have illegally withheld info, it's down to others to try to make sense of the limited number (https://fullfact.org/economy/russia-ukraine-bloomberg-sanctions/) The £250 Billion came from Russ-Mogg tweet (linked/embedded in fullfact link, above), but again no source for the data, no government info published as required by Stats Authority. The number 16 came from https://complyadvantage.com/insights/sanctions-on-russia-compliance-updates/ Talk by UK Gov of 100 that WILL be sanctioned (yeah, maybe, some time, whatevers) but "some ministers feel amendments incorporated into the 2018 Sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering Act are extending the process for implementing sanctions" UK: 27 presumably is including Belarusian and maybe updated Russian ones. They don't say (https://complyadvantage.com/insights/sanctions-on-russia-compliance-updates/)

16 entities, £250 billion. EU, more entities, smaller money BECAUSE UK is THE money laundering capitol and Boris and pals are protecting all but a handful. There's trillions more £ in the UK to confiscate because this is Moscow on Thames

Mein Kampf > Ruhr > Sudetenland > Czechoslovakia > Poland (tripwire) The Foundations of Geopolitics > Donbas > Culture War stoking > Brexit > Ukraine (tripwire) Better if we'd stopped it earlier.

This. Ukrainians have nothing, scared, exhausted. @FallingAwake- If you were in that position would you stop in France (first country from England) or carry on to your relative in Greece? Have a heart. Please

So 16 of the less connected oligarchs (banks) accounted for £250 BILLION That means there are trillions available for confiscation in the UK and that UK was a huge money laundering cesspit, with the money corrupting all of civil society, professional services, City of London, retail, lobbyists, journalism, politics and probably the judiciary (SLAPP etc). Even house prices! Need to stop this asap for all of our sakes. I'll be ever grateful to Ukrainians being the ones to fight back and hopefully be the catalyst to trigger reform in the UK.

It happened at the start of WW2. Trickle trickle, even some sympathy for Ruhr & Sudetenland. Czechoslovakia occupation seen by some as extension of Sudetenland operation but by many/most was a betrayal and showed Hitler's dishonesty. However, Poland took some land from Czechoslovakia, which spread the blame around a bit. This was probably the start of the end of support from the general British public for appeasement. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupation_of_the_Ruhr#Sympathy_for_Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Czechoslovak_border_conflicts#Annexations_by_Poland_in_1938 Invasion of Poland changed remaining sympathetic attitudes in Britain VERY quickly, many people felt they'd been "had" by Hitler's lies and this led to greater British resolve to confront Hitler. Still a few diehard Mosley/Hitler hard-man fans.

Oligarchs? Russian Generals?

From a Reddit comment I think many people should take a deep breath, think about how the cold part of this war (disinformation, sowing discord, encouraging extremists and racists, even anti-capitalists, every kind of THEM and US) started many years ago and has followed Dugin/Putin's version of Mein Kampf (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics#Reception_and_impact) I'd say several of the stated aims were achieved (USA extreme civil discord, UK splitting from EU) and then Ukraine absorption attempt. Currently our best chance to stop any more is 1) Stop Ukraine invasion - complete removal of Russians except perhaps a face-saving hold on Donbas/previously held naval bases ie no new defacto control. 2) Let Russians understand Putin's evil. Russian troops fully briefed, given pamphlets, encrypted files - videos, text, graphs, maps, info on corruption, oligarchs' thievery and violence 3) Let those who were influenced outside of Russia calm down, research, think and realise they were taken in by lies and hate but can walk back rather than double down. 4) Unite. As a country. As friends with EU, stop deliberately widening regulatory regimes (it would lead to more problems anyway).

Too many pages to keep up with, so unsure if posted. SpaceX Starlink terminals were hardened (made less hackable) and SpaceX have supplied THOUSANDS. Purposes include Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence. The sheer number makes them even more useful as they can be distributed widely, Ukrainians can have standard procedures for their effective use across groups). More terminals are expected. In contrast, a lot of Russian comms seem to be unsecured (analog) and Ukrainians have circulated details to their own units/people who are surely engaged in deception, and wind-ups. Russian military planners won't have thought of everything Ukrainians might do, they're constrained by lack of knowledge, backwardness of Russian non-military tech. Reports that Ukrainians are putting poisoned goods into Supermarkets likely to be looted by Russians. Fuel within Ukraine is low now (probably agricultural diesel on farms is biggest resource or vegetable oil?), intermittent electricity affects fossil fuel pumps in garages (perhaps able to pump from tanks through other means?), but some transport available via electric cars. Charging from 7.4-11 kW (even 22 kW for some cars) via EVSE or worst case 3.4 kW trickle-charged (granny cables that come with the car and can use any outlet). Domestic solar installs are huge in Ukraine, presumably grid is unreliable so many of these are off-grid and capable of charging cars even if cloudy and in winter - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Ukraine#Installed_capacity "average of 21.5 kW per family.[16] In western Europe residential solar is typically 3-5 kW per household" I also found this video interesting regarding Russian logistics and TLDR is that Russians probably are stuck for now, have too few trucks, rely too much on rail use, but eventually will resupply. I'm not convinced. If Ukrainians can bring in high-tech weapons and use them with high quality intelligence (hence Starlink's importance) - Russian resupply at required rates might be near impossible. Too many escorts means not enough useful load or too few escorts (anti-air and anti-ground) leads to trucks getting destroyed (looks like snipers attacking truck radiators, hence the tree-log armour):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits#Russo-Ukranian_War I'm not sure how the 10,000 tonne limit, registered ports, submarines being fixed and capital ships works. Badly written, but it might be that Turkey can or has closed the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits in Turkey to Russian military traffic (but not civil). and

Joining the EU would be great for a country that is prone to exceptionalism and feeling hard-done by for it's long-dead empire. Having a further layer of judicial scrutiny helps with the worst excesses and corruption.