DamnedEitherway

The supposed 'Great Housing Market Crash or 2005' was a pretty 'soft landing'.....

My job is in Ashford, so this is where we live. 5 minutes from work. (I've had years of commuting so we moved here a while ago and it's really nice) Felt the tremor this morning. Was lying in bed - thought the wife was having a fit.

Thanks eightiesgirly. I do want to buy this house to stay in for quite some time. I don't need to stretch myself too much but I still don't want to lose money either! I've already lost (potential equity) by being off the market for 18 months. It's a question of do I make sure I don't lose out anymore or do I hold on to see if the market turns the other way. The latter would make me very happy if it were to happen but being wrong and sitting on the sidelines watching doesn't appeal. A good hedge is to be on the market but with the aim to move up the ladder when the crash happens. That way you can't lose. Unfortunately that's not the case for me at the moment.

Anybody know what's up with Tony Dye. He's closed his hedge fund due to health reasons. I'm guessing he's depressed. All that doom takes its toll.

Thanks crashmonitor. I think Ashford's been a bit hotter than that from my experience ... maybe an average of 8-10%. This last year has taken me by surprise. I just hope these last 12 months are not a sucker's rally. Other parts of the UK I might not buy. I just don't want to be sat on the sidelines if and when Ashford becomes more of a commuter belt with the prices to match. We plan to live here for some considerable time.

Thanks Rubbernecker. I was indeed hoping for some friendly advice rather than lots of 'who's this dork' comments.

Of course i'm geniune. Why wouldn't I be. Why grumpy old man if you are neither a bull nor a bear should I not buy ? To the Ashford on a floodplain guy... London seems to be doing ok last time i checked.

Sorry wasn't trying to sound like too much of a speculator, i'm just looking for a home for my family. If I buy it won't be as an investment (ie. I don't expect the house to rise more than the money I'm saving renting).... more of an insurance policy (just in case things get really stupid! ie. they take off into the stratosphere). When you're on the housing ladder with a buffer you can just forget about it all because it doesn't matter anymore. Sitting it out on the sidelines is painful.

Thanks for you comments and the article. I'm aware of the cutbacks to the Euro services. Whilst that's disappointing and the possibility of futher cuts worrying, I think the high speed commuter link to London is going to be the main benefit to the area. It will be expensive though so I expect higher end properties to gain the most and this is as high end as I want to stretch!! A four bed detached house for a reasonable price, where you can hope on the train and be in London in less than 40 minutes sounds a reasonable bet to me. At the same time the countryside is around the corner and the beach is 15 minutes drive ! Yes I agree there is a good chance the market could fall back next year (5-10%) but equally they may not - they may just stall again ... and they may rise another 10% in the mean time. Just like to say also - i'm definitely not a 'Wilson'!! Do I sound bullish enough ? I don't think so! And thanks to the Mortgage broker for the advice too but I won't be over extending myself.

Hi I'm a newbie Anatole Kaletsky a man who's work I've always followed believes there are real dangers now but still seems to favour buying. Lombard Street Research also seem to think 2007 will be a good year but 2008 will grind to a halt. I'm considering buying a house in Ashford, Kent. There's a nice detached 4 bed for £269,950. I think this seems quite reasonable considering there'll be a high speed to link to London is two years time.... Any thoughs appreciated! Here are the articles I mentioned : Don’t be too doomy What could stop house prices rising and even send them into reverse? The two obvious answers are rising interest rates, or a serious weakening of the economy leading to higher unemployment. The second is unlikely, at least in the next two or three years, since the British economy is expected to grow steadily at least until the end of the decade. Interest rates are more of a threat. At least one more rate increase is almost certain, and if the world economy keeps accelerating there could be more. Finally, there is the level of prices themselves. Trees don’t grow all the way to the sky; there comes a point when prices are so high that any further rise would make houses unaffordable, so prices have no way to go but down. When will this point be reached? Nobody knows. My guess is that the period of rapid adjustment from the relatively low house prices of the 1980s and 1990s is over. If so, the present relationship of prices to personal incomes — with average prices fluctuating between five and six times average incomes — will prove to be the norm. In that case, buying a house at today’s prices should prove a decent long-term investment but no guarantee of instant riches. ANATOLE KALETSKY Also Lombard Street Research 2008 – the year the UK house price boom ends? 2007 should be another good year for the UK housing market with double-digit house price inflation, but by 2008 housing momentum is likely to get exhausted. Despite higher interest rates and accelerating house prices inflation, house prices remain affordable. Our housing affordability index fell further in Q4, posting its lowest reading in fifteen years. But it is not yet close to levels previously associated with house price overvaluation. Consequently, housing demand remains strong. Mortgage borrowing continues to power ahead at above-trend rates. So far leading indicators, such as mortgage approvals and the RICS survey, suggest only a mild softening of demand later in the year. Meanwhile, tight supply continues to underpin buoyant house price inflation. Nationwide data show house prices advancing by 9.5% in the year to Q1 after a 9.3% rise in Q4. House price inflation is likely to stay in the low double digits this year. The Bank of England may have little choice but to raise interest rates further. But house price inflation of 10-12% and mortgage rates topping 7.5% by the year end would push house prices into unaffordable territory. A correction on the scale of the early 1990s crash is unlikely, but 2008 could be a difficult year for the UK housing market.

Hi All I've been reading this board for a while. I also find the site really useful to pick up all the news regarding the housing market. I am currently looking at buying a house. Unfortunately I sold my house last year and missed out on the recent boom. Hence I now feel damned if I do, damned if I don't about buying another house. Of course if I don't they'll shoot off into the stratosphere and if I do they'll crash ! (Yes i'm a pessimist either way) Anyway I hope to join the debate.