thirdwave

Apologies. There seems to be something to your claim. South Asians suffer from high levels of cardio vascular disease, Type II Diabetes plus cultural factors (extended families, communal prayers) may explain some of the discrepancy but not all of it. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/bame-groups-hit-harder-covid-19-than-white-people-uk

It now appears convalescent plasma given late in the course of the illness actually makes it a lot worse so it's back to square one

ECMO

Nasopharyngeal swabs are the gold standard as they have > 85-90% sensitivity for the virus but obviously risks more exposure from the procedure itself. Nasal swabs are only 60-65% sensitive, with throat swabs even worse. But testing is mostly left to the nurses (with inadequate PPE I may add-its a miracle nobody's been killed yet by some CoVID patient sneezing all over them) The reason for ENT surgeons catching it on the other hand is to do with the very nature of their work i.e. peering down people's ears and throats on a daily basis.

Maybe the fact that 45% of all NHS doctors are of foreign extraction and many end up in front line, middle grade roles? Besides some of the dead are ENT surgeons who are a very high risk group due to the nature of their work.

It's not as simple as that obviously. He's most likely having a scan, maybe his bloods are looking a bit iffy- there is a cohort of CoVID patients who appear fairly ok despite very low oxygen saturations and can deteriorate very quickly. There is a possibility he'd require a ventilator at some point and they don't want to take any chances. But it's a massive PR disaster as you say.

Myocarditis seems to be very common but that appears secondary to the immune response. Multiple organ failure is the direct consequence of ARDS although some direct damage from the infection itself (for instance causing acute renal injury) is possible.

I don't agree with the characterisation of CoVID as a disease of the old- the virus does cause some direct damage to lung tissue but what kills most people is ARDS linked to an intense immune response that typically occurs in the 2nd week. The pathophysiology of this is not fully understood (it does resemble cytokine storms observed in other conditions with some crucial differences) and both young and old may be equally vulnerable to it- its just that the young are more resilient and therefore more likely to survive it. As the video posted upthread illustrates, most people requiring ICU in certain parts of the country are young(ish). So the choice would always be between lives and the economy, not necessarily boomers lives v economy

Impractical to impose a Chinese style lockdown in the free world. Besides, there is the possibility of the infection rebounding once the lockdown is removed in China, as indeed the IC modeling predicts. The Chinese strategy appears aimed at eradicating the virus- this would require lockdown to be maintained until such time all the current cases recover or die and a subsequent time window, possibly 14-28 days, to account for potential cases in incubation. We'll have to wait and see if this will be successful.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/17/c_138887971.htm https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/companies/lasa-supergenerics-ict-to-co-develop-antiviral-drug-favipiravir-to-combat-covid-19-5039291.html Fujifilm shares have jumped today so this may have legs. The pathophysiology in more severe cases is not entirely linked to the infectious process itself hence antivirals may only work if taken early but this does provide some hope.

Yes.. really hard to know who to believe. They all appear to be pulling figures out of their a****s. But more than likely the UK will cop it just as bad as others on the continent given similar weather this time of the year, comparable demographic profile (granted Italy is slightly older) and stretched health systems (with the exception of Germany)

Didn't you hear the chancellor has found 330 billion down the back of his sofa to do just that? Meanwhile Bahrain, which requires oil at 100 USD per barrel to break even has announced a financial stimulus package worth 30% of its GDP. Where on earth is all this money coming from? So Fed prints a few trillion, hands some to its countrymen and the rest to Middle Eastern despots? Yet the dollar is a safe haven/store of value in times of crisis? Utter madness!

I suppose tax credits and other backhanders don't create the sort of moral hazard money for nothing does. Unlike the Japanese, I'd trust the Americans to spunk this money on more worthless crap from China though

Now you're putting the s***s up me. Maybe I don't want to catch it afterall lol. I'll have to look those up. Would be very odd given the patient profile seen elsewhere. Meanwhile they have built a dedicated 500 bedded ICU in Milan in under 10 days. Italians finally getting their a***s into gear

I stand corrected. But was it on this scale? They are talking USD 1000+

Staff testing will start imminently. It's partly to do with the fact that so many are self isolating we need to have an accurate estimate of how many are actually catching it. Besides, those who've had it and recovered can be moved into more frontline roles.

But this breaks the basic principle of work=money. Creates all sorts of perverse consequences.

It obviously for diagnosed cases. Italians are only testing those admitted to hospital currently. So the actual rates would be far lower. But the point is once you are ill enough to be in hospital with it, there is a fair chance that you'll end up dead. Edit: Even Italy has seen very few deaths in under 50s. Once again there is an emerging link between level of exposure and severity of illness/ chances of fatal outcome- around 20% of medics ill as of last week. Hence why part of me wants to catch the bloody thing and get it over and done with before being (inevitably) redeployed back into the frontline.

Mortality rate in Italy approaching 10%. 10% of French patients are critical. Once tubed, survival rate is around 20-30%. So not so benign. There is a lag of 2 weeks between diagnosis confirmation and death plus around a 10 day lag between intubation and death. So I don't think we've seen the worst of it yet in Italy and France-deaths will continue to climb even as new cases drop for a while.

Lift off White House expresses support for making immediate cash payments to Americans as part of coronavirus stimulus package Don't think we had this even at the height of GFC 2008. The much touted helicopter has arrived. Dollar soars at the news. Edit: I recall Japan trying something similar but not on this scale.

Some theoretical benefit as it interferes with ACE2 receptors which the virus binds to it hasn't been clinically effective in SARS. There is better evidence for use of antiretroviral combinations in CoVID 19 Edit: I have seen a few treatment protocols that recommend it as 1st line but this is all based on flaky Chinese anecdotal evidence

It was purely to determine appropriate dosing. Nothing to get excited about. An effective vaccine is months, if not years away. The attached image is self explanatory

They have been trying to develop a vaccine for SARS, which CoVID 19 closely resembles, for nearly 2 decades with no success.

Not sure about Switzerland but Netherlands certainly isNetherlands pursues herd immunity