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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. 7 hours ago, gruffydd said:

    2.5-3.5% within the year, sadly. People don't seem to understand that we've gone through a WW2 level of disruption - a hell of a lot of volatility will flow from that, over the next few years. 

    Literally just fixed for 5 years at 0.99%. The scariest thing about my mortgage is the redemption penalties of 5% for the full fixed term. 70% LTV max product. 10% overpayments.

    The link to the article seems to say that rates for small deposits have been cut slightly and all they're doing is saying they'll increase rates for those with high deposits. 

  2. 1 hour ago, coypondboy said:

    do you sleep at night I couldn't with a mortgage that big but sensible to fix as any rate increase would affect you more tham me.

    With repayments at £1k a month I could pay it working in Tescos. I know what you mean though... I was stressed before initially taking the plunge but tbh it is true what they say.... it gets easier. My monthly payments have dropped about £200/month and would be even lower had I not taken the additional money out. If I was renting I think that would be the opposite story. 

    In either position you have to make the payments to keep you home but rather unfairly if you have a mortgage you can take payment holidays or go IO for a period etc. If you're renting there's little support. 

  3. 1 hour ago, coypondboy said:

    1.1% at nationwide for 5 yr fixed with no fee for existing borrowers my mortgage only 25k so not worth paying the fee for the cheaper rate only problem had to go from interest only to repayment until 70 but will pay off after 5 yrs just wanted to keep costs down.

    I had arrangement fee of £1k but on a mortgage close to £400K so that 0.1% is £2k over the term.... breakeven - just!

  4. On 30/08/2021 at 08:56, Dweller said:

    A Q I wanted to ask was does the market need FTB?  

    Can't see this collapsing as easily as house prices have just shot up as I guess providing  people are selling it makes not odds but assume it has priced out most of the FTB who can't get an additional £50,000 mortgage. 


    I was walking through town last night and I walked past EA window. Looked in as could do with a laugh and saw a really nice two bed two bathroom flat for £280K. I could afford to buy that and rent it out and it would let for £1,200/m. Back of fag packet and 2.5% at 25% deposit on the IO and that's £440/M for rent. Service charges there too of course but I was just staggered. After years of being priced out and then struggling to buy somewhere 4 years ago with an ex, then getting lucky at work and being able to buy her out to now looking at this and being able to become the very thing that was two steps beyond reach...... needless to say I hope any investor that buys it trips over the edge and into insolvency and I see that nice little flat up for half that price and it goes to a nice young person in their early 20s (or any FTB of any age). 

    In short though the market doesn't need FTB. All property could eventually be hoovered up by investors. 

    I discovered recently that two fairly unassuming individuals at work own large portfolios. One has 14 properties in the area. mi £250K/unit.

  5. 22 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

    Latest check: 0.94 still lowest (with 1k fees) HSBC. 

    My remortgage process started in July and has still not finished. The UK is a country of scraping by, making do, just in time, bare minimums. It's astonishing to see people I know overseas (in Australia, USA, UAE) move into their properties within anything from 2 weeks to a month after acceptance. 


    Shoot! I just went for 5yr fix with Santander... 70% LTV though

  6. 1 hour ago, Casual-observer said:

    Disagree, this is just a shameless cash in and nothing more. 

    What is currently happening is similar to a cash for honours scandal but with MP's.

    They all dole out legislation and/or public sector contracts now and then get rewarded for it later. i.e. Clegg and facebook for example. 

    They're all at it, it's quite apparent what's going on on but as yet no MSM will spell it out. 


    So pay them enough in the job that they do not need to set themselves up afterward. If you're an MP let alone a prominent one you're living in the public eye. Partners of top accounting or legal firms earn a million a year and they only run a book of business relationships. How much do you think the people running the country should earn?

    Pay them £500K/year and you can ban all other contracts. Not just in role but for a period afterwards. 

  7. 52 minutes ago, spacedin said:

    With the greatest respect, I think you're reading too much into what I'm saying

    Maybe. I guess it's a deep question. 

    The contrast is one thing but stopping all that opulence wouldn't solve the poverty issue. I get that feeling when I see a refugee camp on the news in the winter time. The poor wretches scampering around the place in the freezing cold with little or nothing by way of material possessions while I'm in my dressing gown in front of my roaring stove, heating on, sipping Columbian Coffee and eating some avocado eggs bacon thingy to cure the Mendoza Malbec induced hangover. 

  8. 9 hours ago, Insane said:

    I do agree .

    The problem is the way MP's end up in the commons is not via ability or skill in so many cases. No I would want an un-skilled pilot flying a plane , however have you seen some of these people especially the younger ones. They got there by being put up for election in their party's safe seats for reasons only those in the party know and therefore then ended up in the commons. Skill, Ability and Experience have nothing to do with it. 

    I do agree that in the scheme of things the pay is low compared to high powered jobs outside but if we upped the pay to lets say £500,000 a year would we end up with any better or just the same shower. Could we then bring in a test to show a level of competence ? 

    There are also many MP's who are already very wealthy making it power , fame and ego that attract them to this position , it is unique in this manner. There is then the ongoing openings that occur during and after office it is very little to do with the actual pay for the role. Maybe that is why Politics is in the Gutter right now. 

    Tail wagging dog my friend. 

    Offer £500K a year and watch finance, legal and operational heads of business throw their hat in the ring. 

  9. 1 hour ago, Frugal Git said:

    Well, it is within the ‘mug’ range I defined the other day (no point earning less than 85k, might as well be on UC because of taper rate blah blah blah). 

    But I’d take it because of the expenses, the pension, the house flipping ops, the long term gravy train and most importantly - if you’ve ever had the opportunity of visiting the commons canteen, you’ll know it’s a ridiculous subsidised gastro treat. You can get a wonderful freshly cooked steak sandwich for around 70p. 

    All of those expenses and side hustles detract from the main issue - they are not paid enough for that role. Thatcher blocked MP pay rises as the optics weren't good but the unspoken understanding was that you could effectively top up with expenses to cover that off. Got a bit out of hand but that's really the consequence of not paying them properly. 

  10. I'm sorry but I actually really strongly disagree here. The people on the leadership team of my firm all earn far more than that and they're only looking after a subsidiary of US owned tech firm. 

    If you want genuinely good, intelligent people running the country you need to attract them with a decent package. 

    I earn more than that FFS! I also think I'd make a better employee so anecdotally I'm right.

    I'm sure nobody would want to fly in a plane where the pilot earned minimum wage so why would you want your country governed by people paid (for that level of decision making) a very low salary indeed. 

    I guess we could take the other view and say that until they have solved all the country's problems they shouldn't get a penny...... obviously nonsensical. 

  11. 4 hours ago, tep1 said:

    Bp and CNA. Bp pay to hold ~5% currently but I am expecting a 3Q surprise.  No divi with cna but with sector consolidation and now debt free I expect this will change now very shortly. 

    Have started buying a green energy now also. Have a look at EQT. They are early lifecycle so not for the faint hearted.


    Watching BP. If divs return to historic trends it's yielding very well indeed. Nice little income purchase.

  12. 3 hours ago, moonriver said:

    Sounds like you are well prepared with winter supplies.

    and this is the onesie I am going for...looks nice and cosy...



    Oh yes. Some of my friends think I'm a little eccentric when they see me get up from my multiple screen in my office, chuck on old clothes and get chainsawing and splitting piles (literally) of logs. I enjoy the workout and trying to refine my splitting technique and of course stacking the logs to maximise airflow and minimise drying time and moisture content. 

    Onsie looks toastie! I might get a blue one :D 

  13. 3 minutes ago, moonriver said:

    Looks like being with Octopus will save you a fortune now.

    Didn't they take over one of the failed companies recently?

    I just heard EOn have taken over Igloo energy who I was with and we have been put on a variable tariff, but guaranteed until March 2022. They haven't said what that rate is though. Dread to think!

    Wonder when these huge fuel price increases feed through, if there may be some people regretting buying those over large, "hard to keep warm" houses?

    I am off to look to buy a new warm fluff onesie. 😄

    Same as you. 

    I have a tonne of coal bunkered though for a multifuel stove plus a lot of firewood :) 

    I like the sound of a onesie. 

  14. 4 hours ago, winkie said:

    If.....hope they do.......some might, are you banking on that......but realistically how would a £10k increase in pay make a difference?.......like £10k saved for a deposit would make......wage increases will not have that much impact imo, people have been extending the term or the debt into the future, kicking it down the road....;)

    If salary increases £10K I can borrow around £50K more. That's the key determinate for how much people can borrow. Wage inflation follows to house price inflation. 

    Genuinely cannot believe what I've been offered. I'm just under 40 so term is becoming an issue in that I have to start shortening it with each remortgage. I was offered 4.75X without even asking!

  15. 6 hours ago, winkie said:

    Could be more the quality of the debt no longer the quantity ........ Lenders make their money from the interest they charge, they might now have to start asking for more...... inflation brings inflation of many things, inflation of wages, goods, services, labour and price of debt........surely thinking about it we have had years of new liquidity created from cheap abundance of debt pushing up the cost of assets.......now are not the government saying they want to push up the cost of work, see that wages increase after years of a drop in real wages and a massive increase in inflation of homes......are the tables turning? Is not just the talk of interest rates rising a sign to fix, like recently fixing household fuel costs...... protect yourself?;)

    Do they? I thought these were bundled up and sold off in the securities market. Lender makes the loan and sells the revenue stream. 

    If we get wage inflation what will that do to house prices?

  16. 48 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

    assume you have  a slush fund if you lose your job

    With the additional cash coming out I can pay the mortgage for 5 years if I stopped working tomorrow. 

    I'd also be up for a decent chunk of severance - we pay a month for every year. I've been there 6 years and just broken teh six figure barrier. £30K ex-gratia tax free too.

    Furthermore, a chartered accountant is rarely idle but I do take your point. I try to mitigate risk as much as possible while allowing myself some exposure to reward. There's always risk there. 

  17. 1 hour ago, winkie said:

    Less cheap money about, term funding coming to an end at end of month?......savers money becoming more valuable meaning will have to pay more for it?;)

    This seems like the same wishful thinking that stopped me from buying a house for the better part of a decade.

    I've just remortaged. My interest rate is 0.99%. I took out an extra £30k to do stuff to the house. My monthly repayments are £200/month lower!

    The best bit...... the mortgage broker cam back and told me I could have a further £30K and that is without my bonus being taken into consideration. 

    I look at this like I could have outbid myself by £60K when I bought the ex out two years ago.

    With that in mind how is there any less money about?

    I do accept that inequality has increased during the pandemic but all I see around me is houses selling fast and plenty of skips, scaffolding and works going on.

  18. 11 minutes ago, Horseradish said:

    If you shove it into an excel spreadsheet you can see that there are a lot of lower prices, desppite the higher interest, that actually lead to paying back much less than if you buy at a higher price but with lower interest. But it's a curve and it's affected by both factors, so not a simple true/false thing. All completely depends on the combination of the drop and the rates level. Though I would say that there will be a period where loans are hard to get, and then lenders will eventally start lending again, at which point people will be able to buy in (get in fast, heh).

    As an academic exercise yes, but 1% increase on a £250K mortgage is an extra £200/month for initial period. 

    But my point is, as you say, get in as soon as you're able.

  19. 9 minutes ago, henry the king said:

    Almost certain.

    The plan is already out there. Just like 2010-2012 we are going to inflate our way out of this thing.

    So anyone with cash you need to get in assets. Either property, shares, bonds, commodities, all of the above. 

    Just get out of cash asap

    I'm trying my best to short cash. Extending the mortgage and using that cash for investments. Let the cost of those investment get eroded and realise the capital gains down the road to clear what remains of that debt. 

    below 1% is just insane!

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