thefruits

Agree entirely. But surely this tactic of inflating the asking prices so much... simply leads to offers of 25% below asking.. so buyers think they're getting a bargain.. but sellers laughing all the way to the bank. If this catches on.. we'll see HPI return PDQ ?

House around a mile from me... looked at buying in mid 2006 for £425k Sure its a nice house... lovely area.. good schools, low crime, low unemployment etc... Anyone care to guess before they click on ... what the price might be now ??? Guess HPC never happened... Funnily enough.. Zoopla values it about 55% of the current valuation... Seems Zoopla is wrong as well http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...y-22008778.html time to turn out the lights here it seems ?

No. Not at all. Why do you think it is ?

ok... no kidding.... debts of £425k....... mid 30's income of £150k per year..... And I guess if you consider that Average House prices have fallen 20 - 25 % from peak.... then I'm on the verge of negative equity But do I sleep every night.. yes.. in a lovely house in a really nice area with great state schools for my children... incredibly little crime in the area and enjoy living in a great house in a fab area Do I wish that I had a smaller debt.. of course but would I change a thing ... no I'm very happy living life and seeing my kids thoroughy enjoy growing up and spoiling them rotten Why not.. you only live once and I work hard to enjoy things. I love owning a house rather than renting and thats just me. Dons hat for insults etc...

Latest song by the PSB is generating amazing interest on the web particularly with its anti consumerism tones... a song of our times ? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvdMcDRWi48&NR=1 Well its tough getting on in the world When the sun doesnt shine And a boy needs a girl Its about getting out of a rut You need luck But youre stuck and you dont know how (Dont have to be) A big bucks Hollywood star (Dont have to drive) A super car to go far (Dont have to live) A life of power and wealth (Dont have to be) Beautiful but it helps (Dont have to buy) A house in Beverly Hills (Dont have to have) Your daddy paying the bills (Dont have to live) A life of power and wealth (Dont have to be) Beautiful but it helps You need more Than a big blank check to be a lover, or A gulf stream jet to fly you door to door Somewhere chic on another shore You need love Too much of anything is never enough Too much of everything is never enough Well its tough getting on in the world When the sun doesnt shine And a boy needs a girl Its about getting out of a rut You need luck but youre stuck You need more Than the girl handwriting on your wall A chauffeur driven limousine encore To drive your wife and lover to a whiter ball I believe that we can achieve the love that we need, I believe, call me naive, but love is for free (Dont have to be) A big bucks Hollywood star (Dont have to drive) A super car to go far (Dont have to live) A life of power and wealth (Dont have to be) Beautiful but it helps (x3)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/11f33208-a60e-11...?nclick_check=1 Candys swap hospital site for LA complex By Daniel Thomas Published: October 29 2008 23:40 | Last updated: October 29 2008 23:40 Nick and Christian Candy, the property entrepreneurs, have quit one of the most high-profile property developments in the UK following a swap deal with former partner Kaupthing. In a deal to be announced on Friday, the prominent luxury residential developers have swapped part-ownership in the redevelopment of the former Middlesex Hospital site in London’s West End for full control of an apartment complex in Beverly Hills. Both sites were held in joint ventures between the brothers’ CPC Group and Kaupthing, the troubled Icelandic bank. They teamed up to buy the hospital site in 2006 for about £170m, then one of the biggest and most expensive land purchases in London, and had plans for a large residential development called Noho Square. The deal means that CPC Group will make a small loss, having contributed about £14m to the purchase, though it received a £5m planning bonus as well as significant fees. All equity in the scheme has been wiped out given the sharp fall in prices for development land in the UK. The site is now expected to be worth less than £100m, while about £205m of debt was used to buy and take the scheme forward, in addition to £35m in equity. In a further twist, the Candy brothers are interested in buying back into the development at a lower price. Kaupthing is to dispose of part or all of the site, and has drawn up a shortlist of potential partners including CPC Group. Mike Samuels, head of real estate at Kaupthing, said the bank did not want to hold real estate assets long-term but there was no pressure to dispose of its properties at firesale prices. The site is expected to need significant reworking given the slump in the housing market. The deal needs lender consent. There is a £202m loan due for payment to Credit Suisse, and CPC is talking to lenders about a refinancing. CPC said: “We have worked closely with Kaupthing to reach an agreement that is mutually beneficial to both businesses.”

BRIEF-U.S. funds offered in AIG discussions-cnbc (American Internation) NEW YORK (Thomson Financial) - Sept 16 (Reuters) - American International Group Inc: * Government money now on the table in AIG discussions-cnbc * Some sort of government assistance or role in bailing out AIG now being proposed-cnbc, citing wall st sources ((New York Equities Desk; tel: +1 646 223 6000)) Great news. AIG to be bailed out. Burn those blimmin shorters. FTSE up to 5500 tomorrow anyone... HPI here we come. We are saved.

I disagree. I believe that the banks will actually work together to re-float the housing market and drive towards a gradual reduction in liquidity over time through moderately changing their lending criteria. A sudden tightening is not in the banks interests at all. Indeed, I expect that within a year someone pops up and starts offering 100% if not 110% mortgages again. There will be demand and you can bet they'll be supply. Hence the gradual loosening of the mortgage market that we are now seeing. I expect it to continue but I agree that it will never fully be how it was. It just won't remain as bad as it currently is. There is too much competition in the market and demand will win though and memories will be short.

Exactly.. which is why I just wish the govt would finally get round and put in some serious liquidity into the system. Around 200bn would to the trick and would allow banks to restart supporting companies to continue to operate as normal and perhaps to give the mortgage market some chance to get back to normality. I'm not talking 125% loans, 9x multiples just old fashioned 3x joint or whatever it was. Lets get rates back down to be in line with the base rate and see where it takes us. My point re barrett.. simply to note ... its interesting how blinkered many posters on here are to any news that would dare to question their bear position. Its actually quite funny in fact.

In my opinion the faster we get through the whole HPC the better.. bring on the falls to re-balance earnings with multiples and we can get back to a steady and growing economy... hopefully not one so reliant on such a frothy sector and one reliant on real manufacturing and service sector excellence. Until the current blockage is sorted its difficult to plan for when the economy will get back to normality. We need a massive injection of liquidity to enable those who want to sell to sell, and those who want to buy to be able to buy. They can determine the price at which the transaction takes place between them, but the banking system should grease the system to enable the transaction to take place. At the moment, its just stuck which helps neither bulls nor bears.

fair point but its both builders and banks that are doing well now. Hopefully the worst of the news is out of the way and we'll get the housing market moving again for the autumn. Some stability might generate volume and ease the market which is rather constipated at the moment. There's a nice house near me that was on for £825k .. now down via £775k to £695k. If it gets close to £500k I might just be interested. Comes with 1.3 acres of land as well. TF

For a company that some muppets thought had disappeared.. Barrett seems remarkably lifelike again today as its shares rise 20% to over £1.50. Not so quick with the updates some of the uber bears on here when the news isn't to their liking. Shameful

I don't agree. I believe the oil price will now reduce over the next 6 months to $60-75 range. Guess that means that I also think housing will recover in 2010. Yep I do.. question is.. from what base. I'm sticking with a 30% drop in good housing in the right arreas from Sprin 07 peak (not silly over developed apartments). A recovery of +10% in 2010 will co-incide with a global upturn following a banking recovery.

I think you've hit the nail on the head. I would put a floor under the market, and would give the financial insti's time to get their houses in order so that interest rates could return to a rate more in line with the BOE rate than the current distorted position. Would it help the govt re NR ? As for legal challenges.. there's nothing to stop the govt from backdating this support to say April 6 (start of new tax year 08-09) ? Would it be politically popular ? Well if it gives support to the housing market then Yes ? Would it address the underlying problem.. obviously not but .. who cares.. there's an election at stake... perhaps GB will turn from zero to hero ?

In addition to todays govt support to the builders to get the housing market moving, there are whispers that soon we might have an announcment that the govt will underwite lenders extending for a period (2 years or so) mortgages on existing rates (ala HSBC). If this happens then surely it will only prolong any market freeze rather than address the key reason for the current turmoil. I guess it would be better than scrapping stamp duty though ? Wonder if the banks would reduce their rates though for new borrowers... suspect not So would it work ?

I guess we're going to have to disagree as I believe talk of 50% reductions across the board are fancful. For most people, they look at the price they paid for the house, and not what they could have got if they had sold it. Most people bought their houses in the UK at prices that are significantly lower than current prices. Hence if they don't have to move, and don't wish to move, they wont. This won't stop others from wanting to buy their houses or move into their areas. If supply of houses in nice areas are constrained by planning restrictions, and school catchment boundaries, then those who want to buy in to that area will have to pay the price to buy the house. All these reductions in prices for anyone other than distressed sellers is doing is driving the best houses off the market. The way these will come back onto the market is through rising prices. I obviously agree that those who are distressed will get a whipping but as a proportion of the total, what are they 1m ?, out of 20-25m households. An insignificant minority.

Again, you're missing the point that where exactly do you think these millions of people are actually going to move to ? They like where they live, they're happy with their lot and given how blimmin expensive it is to move, and the emotional upheaval involved, I simply don't buy that everyone's going to want to sell to move house. They'll move if they're distressed and have to sell. Otherwise they'll stay where they are. Hence the only houses that will be on the market are those owned by those who have or really want to sell. Which will probably mean that the majority of houses will remain firmly off the market. Which will probably be the best houses.. which comes back to my original point.

Urrrmmm. Perhaps in your neck of the woods this might be the case but it would be a mistake to suggest that this was anything more than what you put down to a cult. Ok, 2 million people might want to sell their house. However this would represent less than 10% of the total housing stock, and thus 90% of homeowners aren't looking to sell. To me this is the majority and those people will simply stay put. Another thing that really gets my goat is the measure that some on here are using for house price reductions. Sure if everybody was looking to sell at the peak, then today vs the peak houses are being reduced. But as with all markets, the only ones losing are those who bought at the peak. Which I propose is actually not many. What a million a year ? Hence everyone else bought at much lower rates than the peak and are thus not particularly worried and are probably sitting on a great vast equity stake. If this matters to them of course. Not everyone by any extent went and Mew'd.... again most people probably lived sensibly within their means and will be fine. Those who didn't will burn. Thankfully the majority will be fine and dandy !

That implies that there was a recent sale to bench any future sale to. I suspect in many areas, sales will be equally rare and if nobody ever sold at the peak then how can you possibly say that somebody lost any money. As I said earlier, the sentiment on this board proposes that everybody is on a daily basis racking up how much their house is worth. Alas for those who believe this, most people don't really give a toss about it. Those at the margins may do but hey ho as 95% of the population are not thinking of selling their house then thats a pretty small and limited minority.

Perhaps but what I was trying to say is that for the vast majority of people, surely their house is their home. Unless distressed (through divorce etc), I presume they have no intention whatsoever of selling up. Does this make their houses undersirable ? No in my opinion. The sensation of living in the house drives the satisfaction, not a weekly revision on a calculator of the value. Contrary to what some posters think on here, house prices are not everybodies pet addictions. Many people lead lives, enjoy friendships, enjoy a community, a sense of self etc. House prices go up and come down, they'll go up again in the future and probably come back down. In the meantime, people enjoy living. To me such reluctance to join the herd is far from being uninformed. It shows that someone is happy with their lot and thats that. After all, only 5% of houses sell in an average year. This means 95% of house holders are happy and don't have to move. Again I maintain, that the prices of some sectors of the market will fall, some will faster but to most people, the ups and downs are a mere noise to the day to day aim to enjoy life.

Strikes me as a very strange story. At any time millions may think of selling their houses but many millions are not thinking of selling. Indeed, in my street in sunny Wokingham, not one house has sold for the last 2 years. Before any uber bears get too excited, thats because out of the 52 houses on the street, none have been on the market. Incidently only 8 have sold on the street since 2002 (as far as I can go back on ourproperty site). Surely there are many streets like this ? Perhaps thats because some people consider houses as homes. We read about the numbers of houses on the market but is 1m so excessive, as a proportion of the nations housing stock it can only represent a small %. Its easy to believe the hype. That we're faced with armageddon and that houses are going to fall 50%. Well some indeed might, more a result of distressed sellers, but I'm still confident that good houses, in nice streets, with good schools will sell and those looking to buy such houses won't be able to get them for the bargains that some on here might hope.

I'm actually warming to Phil... this episode is actually quite funny... Sure the stamp duty rant was cringeworthy But the more casual approach, warts and all is mildly endearing. Krusty still resembles the back of the local bus but hey ho... I've always been more of a Beeny fan Phils rant at the client made me laugh. If Phil would punch the cocky so and so on the nose it would make my day

Its actually 18 inches per annum Could have a life of 60 years still ?

Nice article. thanks.. love the bit about the widescreen tv's.. reminds me of that article about the couple throwing in a 4 year old boxter.. btw.. did that sell ?

interesting thread with many good posts. My own take is that I'm happy with staying in the UK. Sure things aren't perfect, but they ain't broken either. I've returned after a spell abroad and appreciate the UK all the more for what it has, its beautiful countryside, its heritage, its culture, its oddities and rarities. My advice (FWIW) is to try and let out your property in the UK to cover your mortgage. Then move overseas. Try it and for some its wonderful. From my own experience though, there are many more who fall in love with the dream and tv inspired panacea's that simply don't exist for the majority. The number of people I used to know who were always on a knife edge of moving home (to the UK) was incredible. Good luck to the first poster if he / she moves. I hope it works out well. But if it doesn't and you return back to the UK. I promise you, you'll enjoy the UK alot more.