Hullabaloo82
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Posts posted by Hullabaloo82
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54 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:
Agreed, the current drive to turn all vacant space into Ghetto flats will just destroy the local economy and I do foresee a mental health problem as the saddo WFH penny counters want to dominate the argument. The average young worker doesn't and shouldn't want to work from his bedroom.
It's the business rates, the tax system and an inflexible commercial real estate model that's currently in the way of allowing these spaces flourish.
There is an awful lot more tied up in this than people realise I think.
My working theory for a while is that the failure to use lockdowns and the vast sums of money poured into attempting to preserve the existing status quo in aspic to instead reimagine urban centres (particularly smaller ones) will, in a century or two, be judged as the Johnson government's biggest failing.
We had a once in a generation chance to put everything on pause, rip things up and start again, pouring billions of pounds into stimulating the economy and creating new industries in everything from green tech to new ways of working and travelling. We wasted it. Why? Because we are dominated by a selfish, narrow minded, individualist plurality (and I'm not just talking about conservative homeowners here).
People are either just plain selfish or too stupid to understand what's slipping away from us. In 25 years though, when their (sexless and depressed) adult children are working their crappy commodified service job from the kitchen table, everything around them is housing and other needs are met by amazon drone deliveries and maybe a self service pub i think some people will then understand that nice, vibrant towns and suburbs didn't get that way by accident or somebody else doing it, communities are built by active participation.
Sadly though, the plurality will be plugged into their entertainment pods, blissfully believing they've got one over on the system by making their own sandwiches whilst the few remaining self aware individuals look wistfully at the dwindling number of still active communities with common spaces and wonder where they went wrong.
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5 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:
The additional problem is the chronic lack of available and modern commercial real estate outside of cities. No ones going to do this as a loss leader and to do up such a space would mean you've somehow got to recover that cost.
It's a good idea as I can see a host of Work from homers wanting some sort of in person interaction that's not miles from their house but the current financial limitations in setting something like this up is a non starter. Not everyone has a happy home life where they can sit in a large room with all the mod cons and relax in their garden at lunchtime.
I can forsee a rise in people wanting flexible work hours so it frees them up to do group activities during the day.
Humans were not deigned to be sedentary beings living in a 9-5 isolation, that's not good for your mental health and that's why I don't mind a hybrid work model. I was sick of WFH after 2/3 years..I'd had enough.
Think we are coming from very similar angles on this and I think you are spot on; the commentary online on wfh is dominated by noisy misanthropes but most people don't hate their colleagues or just blanket don't enjoy being around other people.
Like you say, getting out and about, being around other people is healthy. It could be used to promote active travel and fitness, stimulate local economies and alleviate the scourge of loneliness and isolation which appears to be sweeping the nation but (and it's a big but) it's unlikely to be profitable in and of itself which is why it's obvious to me that this is a public service need.
The point about lack of office space is an interesting one. In my little burg the closest thing we gave to modern offices is the old district council building, partially let to a housing association who want to convert part of it to shitty flats because (they say) the office space is underused. Meanwhile the high street is struggling and we can't seem to get permission for more actual houses to be built on the edge of town.
This is being replicated all over. At some point when the mental health crisis is acute and all these old council buildings have been turned into wholly inadequate ghetto flats which in turn puts the final nail in the coffin of local economies, we will realise what a valuable asset that space was. Only then though.
I don't believe you need purpose built spaces though. There's an old bank branch on the high street here sat doing nothing. Big glass windows letting in lots of light. Stone's throw from the train station, pubs, shops, car parking. It'd be perfect.
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7 minutes ago, Unmoderated said:
The issue, as ever, is about who would foot the bill for the office - plus business rates! Absolute killer.
What I found over lockdown was that people working remotely would have work parties. People who previously worked together would pop over to each other's houses for a morning, or a day and work in the dining room or just in various rooms and then have a BBQ or meal together. Works well for building extra-employer networks too.
The benefit is it's free.
I guess an easy way to get this going is to organise a networking event at said pub and make it a regular cadence... get talking to people and then eventually you'll have that network. One of you could even build a large office in the garden and people rent (ahem cash) to work from there - could be a fractional share of heat and light costs.
Your last paragraph: people are already doing exactly this. There is a local restaurant that does events for home working folks but the problem is you don't always want to have to schedule these events.
Example; my best mate lives about 15 mins drive from me. He is a bachelor, no kids, so I will sometimes nip to his to work to get away from the family or just a change of scenery. Like you say, we'll grab lunch, share tea breaks etc. Works well but if he's busy or had someone over the night before or whatever the deals off.
The beauty of a co working space is you can just nip in whenever you fancy and see who's about or even if you just need to get out of the house.
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2 minutes ago, winkie said:
So you work in a market town....I take it travelling to the centre of the market town is not difficult, time consuming nor expensive, there may will be a large shop that is no longer required.....how about setting up a hub there for different businesses to use, and for the self-employed to use... a place where they can meet clients, make themselves known and visible, working in the local environment, in the local high street, still out and about meeting others, using local facilities.
This is an interesting one. The idea of professionals moving to the sticks to go self employed isn't new here so neither is "meeting space as a service". Ironically it's probably one of the few ways provincial areas were ahead of urban areas pre pandemic.
The issue is it tends to be something that makes a contribution to an existing business rather than the whole business. In my little town we have a posh hotel that people use as meeting/networking space and a nice pub on the high street with a meeting room they let out for free as ling as you buy beer and sandwiches for those with less grandiose needs. I'm aware of several other businesses that meet on a more informal basis at local pubs and a couple of restaurants that do tapas/networking type things.
Hard to compete with that if you're starting from scratch. Takes investment, ongoing fixed costs with staff etc. The pure work space end of it takes far less investment but I don't know a single one round here that actually makes money and that's not for want of trying; there are a few groups of different professionals who club together to rent an office but that's not quite the same thing.
The reality is it only makes sense as something that's complimentary to something else; like the hotel that does meetings. People will use tge bar after, you can upsell food and drink, you might get an overnight room booking etc. For co working spaces the obvious equivalent is local authorities who need people to come into towns to support businesses to pay rates, parking fees etc. Your work hub likely runs at a small loss but you shove a cafe in there, bit of parking and so on. People suddenly think "hey, why not nip into town a couple of days a week?" and hey presto your footfall is back.
My local council wanted to do exactly this with their hq in the nearby county town. Very desirable space, loads of commuters, wfh folks. New houses going up all the time. Made a ton of sense but the usual "don't spend anything on anything" crew spoiled it and now we have empty shops and a decaying public building that no one wants.
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21 minutes ago, regprentice said:
in the comments on yesterdays FT article about this there was a grudging respect from commenters that if he can do this twice - get 10 figure funding from venture capitalists for clearly flawed ideas - then he's actually a genius and his real business is fleecing VC investors.
His new business Flow is a similar idea, hasn't achieved much yet, and is already "worth" $1/2 Bn.
He's like a cut price Jack Dorsey tbh (the latter also an adept at conning people into thinking he is a visionary)
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1 hour ago, winkie said:
Just because businesses are badly managed intentionally or not, doesn't mean the concept is bad......
I think the concept is bad. At it's core, unless people can persuade their employer (who is already allowing remote work) to spring for it, you are essentially expecting people to fork out their own money for a place to do something they could just do from the comfort of home.
I live in a market town in a rural area. Not a trendy location but I know literally dozens of people who wfh some or all of the time. Some friends and I looked at setting up a space ourselves but what you quickly realise is there's a pretty low ceiling on what most people will actually pay when all's said and done and with utilities being the way they are the margins are questionable.
What most people hated about going to office was the commute and the expense. If you can remove those things, a lot of people don't mind the idea of a bit of company, change of scenery etc, they just don't want to pay hundreds of £ per month to travel and don't want to have to clear it with the boss (or feel like they're wasting money) if they wake up and think they'd rather spent the day in their dressing gown at home or just need some quiet for what they're doing at the time.
We work seems to ignore all of this and assume that every moderately sized city has sufficient Nathan Barley types willing to fork out for somewhere that seems more aimed as a social hang out than an actual place to do work.
There's an opportunity for savvy Local Authorities to run them as a loss leader to support complimentary businesses in ailing Town centres by bringing more people out of their houses again. Just clean, simple spaces near to the action that don't cost the earth. Not rocket science.
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We work always struck me as missing the point. It's based on the idea that people will live in cities just because they're such cool and happening places but the reality seems to be that if people don't have to live in places like London anymore they don't.
I think the real demand for Co working spaces is out in the suburbs and market towns, where people who work from home actually live. I'd love a cheap co working space tbh, would improve my productivity no end, I'm just not going into London, Birmingham or Manchester for it and I don't want it to be an eclectic mix of the offices of SugarApe and an ayahuasca retreat. It's a place to work, ffs.
Far from venture capital / tech bros, I think it'll be savvy local authorities that'll make it work - great, cheap way to revive flagging high streets. Fill an old premises with comfy desks, decent WiFi connection, clean, tea and coffee facilities and easy walk to the shops/pubs. Job done.
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This is the future and not just for women. 2 things are happening here;
1. There is a shortage of talent in certain professions and employers are getting cleverer about their offerings;
I'm a bloke, I just took a significant payrise for a 100% remote job that was sold to me on the basis of it being a strict 9 to 5 (which it is).
My current employer is essentially poaching well qualified staff from less forward thinking organisations with better pay and conditions. We don't break our backs but there are no muppets here and everybody is ultra aware of what a sweet deal it is so people get what they need to done.
Not rocket science when you think about it. Ball very firmly in the court of more traditional employers.
2. People will only work their arse off if they feel it's worth it.
In the past, things like owning a house, saving for retirement were real achievable goals for people so they willingly put extra time in. That isn't the case for many anymore so why would they waste their time? The only logical choice for a lot of people is actually to minimise effort at work and find fulfillment in other areas of life.
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2 hours ago, hotblack42 said:
Its sad she hasn't got a foothold in 17 years. It probably feels like this to her because she has been skimmed of resources via rent, or an overpriced flat with service charges.
For another person of similar age who had:- family help to buy a freehold, ideally just post GFC
- has 15+ years into a pension with 8-10% employer contribs
- is in a job where inflation plus payrises are being handed out
London will look very different because they are living and working in better locations / jobs.
Surbiton, Richmond, Putney, Fulham, PCL, Hampstead, Primrose Hill, Blackheath, around Vicky park, Wanstead, Woodford, Buckhurst Hill all still largely lack the problems she describes. She's not too specific, but the streets are still cleaned and reasonably pothole free in these locations, and people have a reasonable demeanor - stopping to let you cross the road, holding doors open etc.
But yes, the larger parts of London between OK and rubbish are deteriorating and should be avoided where possible.
As far as leaving the UK is concerned, well to a point.. Good advice for smart well organised youngsters with no ties, but if the problem is more the person's attitude and capability rather than London/UK per se, the biggest drawback to emigration is that they won't leave their shortcomings at the White Cliffs.
Couldn't be arsed to listen to all of that but sounds like yet another person who thinks London = England.
What she actually seems to be describing is how London is a poor deal for the 90%+ young people there who are there to wait on and carry water for those lucky enough to have bought property pre 2000 or in jobs which genuinely give them a stake in society and/or are benefitting from generational wealth.
Most people under 40 would be happier trying to base their life around a less instagrammable provincial city in a less glamorous profession but where your salary and surroundings might at least give you a fighting chance at enjoying life. London has a powerful marketing strategy though which keeps drawing them in like moths to a flame.
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56 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:
That "house price mania" tweet should carry a maths gore trigger warning.
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On 24/03/2023 at 13:49, MancTom said:
I am using GitHub copilot and I can't see it replacing programmers jobs. It saves me a lot of time not having to type long lines of c++ - but ultimately a lot of its guesses are wrong. Which isn't a problem for me, because I know our code base inside out and have 20 years experience writing c++. So I can fix it very fast and so it still saves me time typing. Which gives me more time for thinking. Can't imagine you would leave it on its own to write code for production software....
It doesn't understand anything about c++ as far as I understand. My understanding is that it just learns the code to generate based on what other people have written and makes a "best guess" based on probabilities it has calculated.
Who knows how it might have evolved in 20 years time though...
Also I really hope beginners don't use this, given how much wrong code it generates. They will spend an awful lot of time working out why it doesn't work. Probably better to write from scratch without its help and actually learn how to write code themselves.
I'm in a completely different industry (financish) but we have been just about to be automated out of existence for decades and we're having another round of it right now with chat bots.
My take on it is the same as yours; it's only useful if you have an idea of what "good looks like" already. If used correctly (and fed the right info to begin with) chat bots are a great way of efficiently pulling together info and ensuring you haven't missed things or providing challenge as to what should or shouldn't be included in a piece of technical writing but that's it.
Pretty much anything chat GPT etc does has to be reviewed by a qualified human and possibly rewritten to avoid plagiarism issues etc. Anyone who thinks the current incarnation is anything more than that is deluded. As someone who writes for a living though I will be looking at ways to bring it into my work routine though as it's a useful tool to use as a start point for things.
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6 minutes ago, Dweller said:
Oh good grief what a good idea especially given how everything connected to this government that is world beating seems to come back to haunt them:
Unlock £50bn pension investments using post-Brexit freedoms, Treasury urged
Scrapping red tape could help plug a funding gap backing British business, Lord Mayor of London says
Then there is Phoenix after all who cares about things like solvency. Why does everything have to be world beating and big bang with the bloody Tories and why would Phoenix invest in windfarms when the current government doesn't believe in them ? :
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/26/city-investor-gears-unleash-post-brexit-investment-big-bang/?fbclid=IwAR20aRwjSUKY-QbGKaIubgxPy9ZJRaIXXSbSXgfDwqStxcIGKL-0_SqYNbQInsurance has been touted for years as an industry that could benefit from relaxing the EU rules introduced to make financial institutions safer after the 2008 financial crash.
Industry leaders have said they could invest an extra £100bn in illiquid assets like wind farms and other infrastructure projects, as part of so-called Big Bang 2.0 reforms, but their hands have been tied as a result of Solvency 2 restrictions.
So how does this fit in with the UK and EU moving closer and the EU
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/03/24/brussels-drops-uk-eu-banking-veto-rishi-sunaks-brexit-deal/?fbclid=IwAR3Ye2VAATEorayGzHzSQKXVggzCDKhIN4nTAdDLUfV0dMNId9o2WU4WXLgThe agreement will bring banking cooperation out of a deep freeze and is seen as the first step towards a wider deal with the EU for the City.
It will set up a new joint forum where senior figures from the two sides will meet regularly to discuss upcoming regulation and challenges in the sector.
Industry figures hope that, over time, it will improve trust levels to the extent that Brussels will drop its refusal to grant market access, known as equivalence.
Miles Celic, chief executive of TheCityUK, said: “This will be a vital step towards ensuring continued industry cooperation and continuity between the UK and EU.”
What could possibly go wrong?
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38 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:
Yes no one ever got fat eating cheap frozen crap from the supermarket. Well known fact.
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2 minutes ago, winkie said:
Get it and well done to both of you......my point is others who have less, earn less can make the money they earn go further if take time to think about how they plan to do that.......someone earning more will spend more than they earn, another earning much less will spend less than they earn.....both being just as extremely happy with their lot.
I'm sure they can but this isn't some ancient secret the hpc forum has discovered that no-one else knows and the patronising tone of some on here on these topics is grating.
The reality is that creature comforts are in important part of quality of life for people. Vibrant communities are built around a vibrant business sector and for that business sector to exist, people have to spend money and yes that sometimes means 3 quid on a takeaway coffee and a fiver on a pint.
HPC seems to be built on a vein of bitterness that can't see any value in enjoying life. I get why that is but some of you need to take a step back occasionally
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9 minutes ago, winkie said:
Whatever makes you and your family happy.......can easily spend £200 or more on one meal in a restaurant, or can book yourself a return flight and spend a week in a simple but comfortable place near the sea, or mountains, lots of nature and walks....simple healthy foods.......wear a suit, or shorts and t-shirt.......think what will save on heating, water and electricity.......food shopping for the week 20% cheaper, fresh fruit and vegetables cheap wine and beer......you decide.
Thanks, I will decide (and have already).
I'll personally never really understand why takeaways, coffee etc are demonised to the extent they are. Obviously if you're spending money you don't have it's a problem but if not.....
My wife and I now earn north of 100k between us. We live in an unfashionable area of the Midlands and our mortgage on a 4 bed detached period property is a bit less than £800 a month, fair bit left to run on the fix too. I generally work remotely and will be exclusively doing so shortly. No car finance, wife does 40 mile round trip daily and I have a home contract so any train fares are on the company. I walk the kids to school and nursery, latter covered by 30 hours free and after school club goes on tax free so we pay a bit under £300 a month (lucky enough to live near family so we do benefit from some support there too). We both have pensions.
The biggest extravagance we are looking at is a family holiday this year which we are expecting to cost between £3k and £4k depending on time availability of extended family. Otherwise we are still able to put several hundred quid a month away. We give ourselves £550 each a month for spends which and we have a "leftover" £70 in the budget which I put as "slush".
We tend to have a takeaway on a Thursday night as (pending start of my new job) that's when I get back from the office late and will grab something (normally chinese) on the way back home for about £25. If we can get a babysitter we will occasionally have a night out together which might cost £100 - £150 between us and both of us will usually go out separately with friends locally a few times a month.
Sure, we could save every penny but it's a trade off because (and I get this might sound weird to the pessimistic folk on here) I actually like where I live, I like doing stuff with friends and family, I like having pubs and shops and restaurants in walking distance and I'm happy to chuck them a few quid to keep going because it enhances my life them being here. We are still able to save and invest without having to live like hermits.
I don't hate work either and I'm fortunate enough to not be in a manual labour or similar role that's destroying my health so if I'm honest, I'm not panicking too much about working till I'm 65.
I'm in a fairly niche role these days but my professional background is boringly normal and my wife's even more so. The difference is that pay in certain areas of the economy has suddenly ballooned in the last couple of years (which is what the Bank are trying to put a stop to). It's the K shape recovery in action; I've seen it referred to a few times on here and people seem aware of it but it also seems that, like the media, people tend to ignore the "up" tick of the "K".
The real story here is more about inequality than anything else. There are large chunks of people the recession isn't going to touch but the two groups live increasingly separate lives and, as evidenced by threads like this and our wider political discourse, increasingly can't understand each other.
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On 23/03/2023 at 08:32, TheCountOfNowhere said:
So companies have less money and vacancies are falling. Has recession written all over it
All part of the plan. The BoE are trying to "shrink to fit" the economy to encourage employers to shed a lot of these vacancies and prevent what the bank sees as a wage/price spiral.
Personal view; if you're 40 and below, in a professional role and haven't yet job hopped or leveraged an offer for better pay, this is your last chance and the closing of a window that's basically our generation's answer to new Labour era hpi.
My pay is substantially up over the last year and I just accepted a new job paying another 30%. The wife has retrained and is also earning a lot, lot more now. Our 2010s level mortgage is rapidly receding to irrelevance in the rear view mirror, interest rates or no.
One observation I will make though; we are looking at staying in this house now as opposed to upsizing which we wanted. We've also ditched one of our cars and won't be going back to having two cars or spending a lot on luxury vehicles. All the additional income is going on trying to make the family more secure financially long term and "spends" are largely home comforts or social life. In other words, we aren't cutting back on takeaways, pub or holidays so the income growth is more about maintaining what was already a nice life rather than having lifestyle creep.
Think a lot will do the same and that is going to have ramifications.
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37 minutes ago, muyuubyou said:
what do you mean you or I? if these people have around £60K of equity I'm considerably wealthier than them LOL
idk it seems like they're aiming at around 10% return for their investment, which is very very good, but that's if they fill those properties at those rates in the middle of nowhere
You're missing the point. That £60k is an accounting quirk, not the real equity level on the portfolio.
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3 hours ago, Si1 said:
That link I posted which has a fair bit of inquisitive sleuthing says the loans are interest free and short term; despite this they've not been paid back on time. Very strange.
That link is really, really interesting.
Been a while since I've had much to do with these type of accounts so may be a bit rusty but I'm assuming the "filleted" accounts aren't required to disclose related party transactions (may be a wholly owned subsidiary anyway in which case it doesn't have to at all, but there's no disclosures we can see to clarify) but I bet the full accounts make interesting reading.
Used, High end motors, money laundering and drug dealers, name a more iconic trio. If I were a cynical man (which I'm not and therefore this comment doesn't in any way constitute an accusation) I'd suggest somebody might be fronting for some dirty money.... hope their accountants are up to date with their AML/KYC training.
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26 minutes ago, muyuubyou said:
they're probably strapped for every quid of those rents, too
£1M at current rates, what mortgage do you reckon they have to pay? they may go bankrupt if they don't get those new rents
Depends what the repayment terms are. People like this can access different types of financing from you or I. A lot of them may just be a charge on the property when it's sold (within x time frame) as opposed to a monthly payment.
My guess is the plan us ramp up the rents, get rid of the tenants, redevelop and sell the property and pay off the bank. Rinse and repeat.
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6 hours ago, Si1 said:
If I understand properly, they have net assets of about £60k against 5 million in debt
This isn't the whole picture though; if you look at the accounting policies they have elected to hold fixed assets and stock (which presumably are properties they are developing for sale) at historic cost less impairment so neither the stock nor the land (how do I know tangible fixed assets are land? Note 3 shows zero depreciation) are at shown at fair value unless that fair value is lower than cost price (which you'd expect not to be the case for a firm of property developers).
The end result of this is every time they take out a secured loan against one of their properties to buy another one it effectively looks like they are 100% debt funded because they are effectively swapping equity in another property as a deposit and borrowing the rest so their balance sheet will show an equal and opposite asset/liability. The bank or lender will be making their lending decisions based off an actual valuation though.
Given they are treating the properties as current assets (stock) it seems likely the aim of the game here is to force the tenants out, redevelop the houses for sale to 2nd home / Airbnb people as opposed to land banking and renting. You can see from note 3 they've sold some land and their profit and loss account was actually a net liability position so, precarious as it looks, they've evidently actually made some profit in the last year.
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11 minutes ago, TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack said:
Years ago there was a long standing joke that might have started on something like Not the Nine o Clock News.
"Come home to a real fire - Buy a Cottage in Wales".
They had better hope the Welsh Nationalists don't get wind of this as Chester isn't that far away.
The couple are Welsh themselves. Can't pin this one on the "bloody Saesnegs"
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10 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:
you can start any SIPPS pension at 55
SIPPs is a private pension though. All the 55 threshold means there is you avoid a tax penalty on withdrawal. Nothing to do with state or other public pensions.
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5 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:
Real leaders would have walked by now, the Macron era of top placeman politician needs to go.
Really? Didn't we have exactly the same thing with the gillets jaunes? Macron is still standing.
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29 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:
There is a complexity that the state pension in france is contribution based and cannot be started before retirement age. Many british jobs with traditional pensions can be started early (with penalty) if you have had enough by say 60. The French do not have that option.
British people only have that option in occupational public pensions if they retire through ill health (55+) or in some cases you may be able to take "early retirement" if you're made redundant (60+) but in both scenarios it will usually cost your employer a strain payment and you will be subject to a reduction. It's not something you can just decide on a whim and France actually has the same ill health provisions.
Need to be careful using phrases like "contribution based". Both state and supplementary pensions in France are career average defined benefit schemes (ie exactly the same as public sector employees get now in post 2014 UK schemes and considerably better than UK state pension).
Most people understand the basic premise that longer life expectancy and other demographic changes are making it harder to fund state and public pensions. France's (and the UK state and civil service) pension schemes are "unfunded"; I.e. the difference between contributions received and benefits paid has to be made up by government grant which has to be funded by tax, borrowing or money creation. If we don't accept that it's fair to raise the pension age at a point where people are living longer, how do you propose they make up the gap?*
The general position of this forum is that boomers and the public sector in general are mollycoddled with unaffordable sweetheart pensions which are a drag on everyone else so it's a bit rich to see people cheering on the French for refusing to accept changes to their own schemes.
*( for what it's worth, my argument is and always has been that the fairest way to resolve this is to rebase the whole thing and claw back from the boomer generation and above if necessary. The unfairness is not in recognising that the current set up is unsustainable, it's expecting gen x / millennial and below to keep the older generations in clover and get stiffed in their own retirement).
Shoplifting is out of control. Forget the police – stores need to up their game
in House prices and the economy
Posted
There are crimes and there are crimes though. I'm a daily cannabis user for example. Arguably I set out to commit a crime every time I go for my nightly edibles or just every day by the simple act of what's in my fridge but I'd be frankly stunned to be charged or even caught.
I wonder how much of these kind of instances distort things.