Pablo
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Posts posted by Pablo
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I can't recall the last time I saw reference to the realities of HTB, i,e, pushing up prices. The back drop is that they say a crash has been avoided, however on very weak footing or understanding imo.
However the bit of interest.
Referenced here:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aae1fa3e-6b7d-11e6-ae5b-a7cc5dd5a28c.html#axzz4Iofi1hH4 or search google for "The challenges facing Britain’s housing market after Brexit"
"The response of the Cameron government — a “Help To Buy” scheme aimed at lower-income households — appears to have had the effect of pumping up demand and prices but without a commensurate increase in supply. The obstacles to mass housebuilding, despite repeated promises by governments of different stripes, remain formidable. Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, has expressed concern about the lack of affordable housing in the capital. Yet he has shown greater reluctance than Boris Johnson, his predecessor, to allow building on the greenbelt."
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Ha, don't worry Silvesy. This is standard HPC practice, the first few weeks you will be called everything from a troll to an EA to god knows what.
Just ignore and continue.
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Interesting so far...very bearish
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Just spotted this on Henry Pryor's twitter page.
Perhaps worth a watch.
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Zone Two London - Not a new build
Sold for £410k in 2008, now £450k
It's 40k more but in terms of gains, they have quickly reduced. This would have gone on for around £500k pre brexit. (In fact my email history shows it was, then £475k e.t.c)
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-43217694.html
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Posted by Henry Pryor
"Urgent sale - asking now LOWER that the original purchase price of 2013 which was £1,175,000. Due completion - NOW."
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House builders are down today by about 2% probably as a result of barratt announcing they will be slowing down builds.
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Spoke to a developer on Friday, they basically said that since brexit they have seen two markets.
Those under £600k were still ploughing ahead because HTB gave the foot through the door into house ownership, but anything over £600k and not eligible for HTB has seen people pull out or negotiate 5-10% discounts. Of which this particular developer was refusing because it would be cheaper than the last 'release' of similar properties with x month build remaining.
Time will tell if they soften on that stance, or when those properties have been completed...
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Shares on the whole are up today, don't think housing specific 2bh.
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You've got to elaborate on this one! paint me a picture...
A few situations I noticed from a short 30 min tube journey.
1) I came onto the tube and there was a lady literally shouting about new build property, I couldnt hear what else she was saying as my seat was further down the tube and next to a noisy ventilator.
2) A very well dressed lady in her late 40's read the front page, then scrabbled around in a quite a dignified manner trying to find the continuation of the story. Then she just stared surprised/in thought at page 6 (the continuation) for about 5 minutes !
3) Some younger guys were talking about brexit, one basically saying accept it and reap the benefits, the other saying there are no benefits. Then the latter saw the headline of lower house prices and you could see something click!
4) On the way back, there was probably 8 people across the row reading the paper, so that headline hitting everyones eyeline as they wondered/stumbled on.
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Ah, how we've waited for this day. Commuters on their way home for the weekend with a great big house price panic headline in their faces.
And we're only on Brexit week one.
I watched the reactions as people picked up the papers, the older gen were horified but equally engrossed.
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Genuine question from someone who doesn't follow the stock market: How come Carney's promise of the funny money yesterday reassured the FTSE100, but Foxtons hasn't benefited and is today sinking again?
I know the obvious answer would be, that this baby's coming down hard, but other shares such as Purplebricks have kept rising since Carney spoke.
I guess you need to open the lid of whats in the FTSE100, it seems that banks/property seperately are suffering as a whole. E.g. today:
RBS - Down another 3.5%
Berkeley Group - Down another 0.44%
Foxtons - Down another 3.36%
Barclays - Down another 1.8%
The FTSE today is only up another 0.31%
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Post-Brexit property planning: should you buy, sell or stick?
I have a declaration to make: I am in the middle of a five-property chain. At the bottom is a first-time buyer purchasing a flat in East London, and at the top, downsizers leaving Farnham, Surrey. I am waiting for that fateful phone call from the estate agent telling me that following the referendum result the first-time buyers are trying to renegotiate on price, sending reverberations up the chain, or, worse still, that someone has pulled out. Could I become a property casualty of Brexit?
Surely if the first party asks for £50k off or even 10% that will continue up the chain?
If on a percentage basis this individual is actually more of a winner, assuming the next property is more expensive.
e.g.
Individual - £400k house takes a 10% cut = £360k
House they were buying- £500k takes a 10% cut = £450k
The cost to move is now £90k and not £100k and their stamp duty will also be less.
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Some FTBs may put off buying... until the base rate is cut! It's all about minimising that monthly payment.
I think it goes much wider than that and not just for FTB, there is a huge amount of fear in the market about drops.
The fundamentals are that house prices are too high, people are scared of the level of debt they may be taking on, worry about their jobs and price cuts are already hitting the market as a direct result.
In London, my inbox is being comparitively flooded with reductions and new listings.
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I missed the speech, but slash rates? Is he talking negative interest therefore?
I can't see 0.5% affecting the current negative sentiment on housing too much, it might just buy those who are overextended and on variable rates a bit more time.
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The more expensive one is right next to Hyde Park, far more 'desirable' than Little Venice.
They are both on the same road, in the same series of houses.
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I am not sure if it is just me, but who else is seeing property at pricing not seen for 1+ years?
This has been listed today at £550k with 3 agents!, and I recall this sort of property being at the £650k mark
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-54868906.html vs http://www.chestertons.com/property-to-buy/london-st-marys-terrace-w2/ven160076/
Same size, same location, the £650k property has a bit more character but take the furniture out and there isn't much in it.
Seeing drops from £500k in April to £400k now
Lots of price reductions emails, more fresh property than I have seen in a while such as that £550k little venice one e.t.c....
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Where is that agent based?
'continue lending at a practical rate while the strength of the point will only improve' - I assume then that this agent has staked everything on a currency move upwards then?
West/North London
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Sounds like they have had a few questions since yesterdays Brexit and looking to 'reassure'.
"After the patient wait, we now know Britain’s choice on its EU membership. Many of our purchaser and sellers alike have quizzed us on the aftermath of this morning news’ impact to the property market.
The decision of this unrelated public vote does not alter the circumstances that remain: the lack of available homes for the British public. We will continue to have an imbalance of supply and demand, which has in the past driven property prices in only one trajectory.
I remember back in 2010 when we had the same level of “uncertainty” which generated one of our most successful periods at mile… UK house prices out performed stocks and shares and will continue to do so given the aforementioned.
Majority of homes in the UK have been purchased via borrowing from the banks. Given the reforms that await us it would be economic suicide to suggest interest rates would increase. Therefore it remains plausible sense that the banks will continue lending at a practical rate while the strength of the Pound Sterling will only improve. Positively, compared to the last drama that challenged the property market, banks are now government owned.
In all, London remains a sought after destination, and we do not suspect demand to fall. We transact in a vibrant area that is not dictated by central markets. With pre-planned investments on the horizon such as the improvement of Harlesden and the installation of the Crossrail/HS2 this will continue to positively influence prices and outperform adjacent areas.
Why “fear” the unknown? We will all continue to require a roof above our heads." -
Well a weak pound certainly makes UK property much cheaper for all those foreign investors. Or are we burying our heads in the sand about that and hoping that BoJo the Clown (friend of the foreign tycoons if not foreigners) will put a stop to them coming here to stash their cash. Well that won't happen.
It will make UK property cheaper, but FI isn't completely foolish either.
FI is averse to uncertainty and given all the warnings of house price crashes it takes a brave investor to invest £500k-£2mill in a country where there is confusion around the leadership, the UK's future prospects are in question, where house price drops are widely predicted to drop all to save a few percent in FX benefit.
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On another forum
"I just mentioned in another thread, had a message from an EA mate of mine earlier, their phones haven't stopped ringing all morning with buyers withdrawing or reducing their offers.
Interesting times." -
Doubt it, they might try but people will hold on to the dream of what their house is 'worth' until the bitter end and repossessions start picking up. Give it a few years yet
Surprisingly, there is already much talk of people pulling out at the last minute.
One of my colleagues knows of my interest in the subject, asking if he should buy as it feels risky, how one of his friends has pulled out of completing on a flat today e.t.c
Sentiment is changing, and quickly !
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All stocks are up though, including banks, berkeley group e.t.c. Just a general upbeat feeling in the markets apparently.
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Is anyone else noticing there is nothing coming on the market this past week or so, let alone selling? I'm not seeing much discussion of the numbers on here or anywhere, which is quite strange, but it suggests to me people are waiting until after Thursday - thereby confirming Brexit *will* be a big event in terms of house prices. But I'm not seeing much dissemination of that at all on here.
5 properties came through as reduced today on my very focused hampstead/kilburn border search. Usual case of £20-30k been knocked off.
I suspect your right about Brexit though.
Bbc: Brexit Sparks Overseas Spending Spree In London Property - Merged Topics.
in House prices and the economy
Posted
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-uk-leaves-the-eu-37260267
Thoughts?