Blue Peter
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Posts posted by Blue Peter
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They already side-step this thorny issue to a degree, Blair for example sent his kids to the London Oratory, whilst officially a state school it's basically a high achieving Catholic public school in everything but name. He also had them privately tutored. At least Dianne Abbot is open in her hypocrisy.
As I said, there would be loads of loopholes....
However if we packed the commons full of puritans and virtuous maidens then we'd have some very funny laws. Same if they started making honest people life-peers, at the moment when you see "Lord" before a name you instantly know they are either a crony that is on side or somebody who has entirely coincidentally made a donation to the Labour party, it works as a wonderful label.And we don't at the moment
A long time ago, I remember seeing a programme that suggested that a true democracy would work on the basis of a ballot. We'd certainly try to improve our education system if there was a danger that anyone could get chosen to lead us
Peter.
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For example I don't begrude Dianne Abbot for wanting the best for her child, but if she doesn't consider the state system to be good enough for her son then what signal does that send? It's impossible to square this circle regardless of how valid or heart felt the justifications are.
Though I'm sure that there would be loopholes, etc., if I were given the chance to create one new law, it would be along the lines that all MPs must use public services (health, education, public transport, etc.), and also fill in the equivalent of all the reports they foist on people such as teachers,
Peter.
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That is true. Has anyone been tracking the market lately? Any evidence of falls in the average price in Milton Keynes? Still people at work don't believe me that house prices are falling!
I think on one of the August indices (hometrack?), MK was shown as 0.something % down.
You can also see drops in asking prices on certain houses (e.g. one in Wavendon Gate from 375,000 to just under 340,000), and lots of houses not selling,
Peter.
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only thing is he didnt even say that he was going to use oil as a weapon.
the bottom line is if someone decides to attack you they will find whatever justification is necessary for that attack.
Sharon and Bush have decided on this a long time ago.
It is unfinished business going back to the Carter and Reagan administrations.
sorry folks but the only chance it can be averted is if China intervenes and I doubt if it will/.
Even if oil supply is tight, and could become tighter if hurrican Rita does anything (though this is conflating oil and refined products, I know)? It just seems that this might be the worst time to do something like that,
Peter.
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Well said Peter, this really is not the right time in view of crude / derivatives prices. But I don't think the Western governments believe they have much choice but to intervene now.
Is there a real problem with Iran? or is something else going on, though? After Iraq, I am rather suspicious of all this WMD stuff, and I can't tell whether there is something to worry about (and therefore intervene now), or whether there is a hidden agenda (though I'm not sure what that is),
Peter.
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awww you just KNOW what's coming up don't you!!!!
this ain't going to be pretty!
Surely, this is not a good time to be messing aorund with a major oil producer?
Peter.
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If by
'big guys'
they mean people who have been property investing for 25 years and know the property market inside out, go to every auction and buy when the property is a good deal, have been consistantly buying through the dips and therefore bought most of their property at 20% of the price it is worth now (I know one).
and
'small guys'
started BTL about 3 years ago and now have 4 properties, they put a deposit on the first one and then MEWed to afford the deposits on the subsequent ones.
then
Yes it will be all the small ones that end up screwed!!!
Yes, I guess that it's a case of when you bought. However, are there likely to be any people who've built up a big empire recently by mewing on their earlier purchases. I guess that even with a large number of properties you can get into cash flow problems if even a few of your properties go into negative equity, and you've used earlier and cheaper properties to fund them. If the rents of the dearer properties don't cover the mortgages, and you can't sell other properties to release capital, then the whole empire could be brought down by just a bit fo your portfolio not performing?
Peter.
Peter.
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In a discussion on another forum, someone is saying that they fear that if there is a house price crash, then, on the BTL front, it's the little guys (with one or two BTL properties) who will get hurt, "whilst the "professionals" with a BTL empire of hundreds of properties will emerge unscathed. Indeed, they'll even use any crash as an opportunity to hoover up even more properties and so grow their empires yet further.
Is this likely to be the case, or are both lots likely to get hurt in any crash?
Peter.
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I wonder if the sale will complete? But then a SOLD sign means it is SOLD legally does it not?
I suspect if you look closely you will see the magic words, "subject to contract". Though I must admit to not understanding why they are so important,
Peter.
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True but it's not those people who are eagerly awaitting a meltdown in the economy, is it? And I'm seeing a lot of gleeful anticipation here from where I'm sitting and not a great deal of lamentation.
I suspect that people are gleeful, because they are seeing that its likely that they've backed the right horse in a two-horse race. They may latter not be so gleeful when they find that there are some nasty consequences of that horse winning. But they're probably in a better position than they might have been,
Peter.
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Just seen on Teletext that July's trade deficit grw from 2.2 to 3.4 billion in July, worse than expected.
I wonder if that's a consequence of higher fossil fuel prices?
Peter.
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I doubt that Peak Oil will be the neat bell curve of the theory. Instead, it will be a series of crises caused by hurricanes, or political storms, or shipping disasters, or whatever stressing the supply, followed by relief as new fields are brought on line or a spike in prices hammers demand in the poorer nations. This sequence of dramas will mask the fundamental that new oil is not coming on line fast enough to replace depletion of existing fields and meet rising demand. These crises will get more and more common and more and more serious, but I doubt that the basic concept of Peak Oil will become widely known. Even when decline sets in, the public will probably blame the bankers or the oil companies, or the Chinese .
I'm sure that you're right, it won't be a neat bell curve, but something with lots of wobbles. However, the assumption is that if you don't look at the detail, it's roughly a bell curve.
However, the bell curve theory has been developed for smaller entities than the world (single wells, fields, or countries, most spectacularly, the USA), when there has always been somewhere else on the upside of the curve to pump out even more of the black stuff. When the whole world peaks, there's nowhere else (of an equivalent size) able to take the strain, so, empirically, we're in a new situation. The bell curve theory (hypothesis or whatever) may not stand up to such a test.
Peter.
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Yeah, and if my memory serves me, they are also advertising on tv now, which IMO should be viewed that a company is in the shyte.
They are advertising on tv.
Also, interestingly, I looked for properties added in the last 24 hours in Milton Keynes. A few of them had the purple price reduced banner. That's very quick isn't it?
Peter.
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I quite don't see the point of this poll. Doesn't everyone on here naturally want the maximum possible rise if they have savings?
But there is the wider view of the economy as a whole. Though purely personally, 50% would be very good for me, it would blow the economy to smithereens, which wouldn't be good for me. Overall, I suspect that a gentle rise would be best,
Peter.
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Dipstick,
My respect for what you've done and are doing. I'd certainly be interested in moving in the smallholding direction. Selfishly, I'm hoping that a housing price correction might make a place with a few acres of land available to me.
With regard to bio-diesel, I don't know where you are, but www.lowimpact.org.uk may be of interest.
A couple of other sites which may be relevant (if you haven't already found them) are:
www.powerswitch.org.uk (Peak oil)
www.downsizer.net (downsizing)
Good luck in all that comes your way,
Peter.
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Hi Peter,
Oh believe me I am very afraid. The odd one out even in the circles I mix in I'm afraid. I just need to understand it to apply it.
Fought like a demon these past 6 years to free myself from the stuff that I eventually think will bring us down.
The effects of more expensive/diminishing oil supplies concerns me on many fronts.
I do keep popping up every so often telling folk on here to be more supported of nationally/locally grown produce. The implications on the production and importing of food in respect of diminishing fuel supplies scares the heck out of me.
Just spent a while trying to convince a smallholder to reseed the old fashioned way with a herbal ley to feed the ground and the animals instead of being reliant on industrial chemicals and fertilisers. Didn't work though. Spose he'll start running around panicking when the price of his chemicals goes through the roof.
Again I think I may be sounding a bit "off the wall" but my thinking is this. Farming is trashed in this country because the government don't want it due to corporate influence etc. That makes us reliant on a lot of imported stuff already. So a) we are held to ransom over what we get on our plates i.e. what the hell is in it,
(Bet that comes out as a smiley face) We are held to ransom over the price - which in respect of most items is now going to rise both in terms of the product and packaging (oil) and c) We are now going to stare increased costs over transportation methods as well.Then we have local and government planners that think to Grow Your Own means pretty hanging baskets and anything else doesn't fit in with Joe Publics perception of their very nice and expensive housing estates.
Concerned really that ultimately house prices will be the least of our worries, food in the stomach may be of a bigger concern.
Then there are loads of other things that will be affected that are a tad less important than food but not far behind : heat, light, etc
I think that you're right. House prices won't be our major concern, though I think that they may have a part to play or two:
The collapse of the present (global) bubble will presumably be accompanied by a (global) recession, which will push the peak out a bit.
One of the bits of advice about peak oil that people are giving out is to get out of debt, because that's not the sort of thing which you want round your neck in such circumstances. So the consequences from this house price bubble may affect how people are dealt with with fuel scarcity.
"Fought like a demon these past 6 years to free myself from the stuff that I eventually think will bring us down."
Can I ask what you think that this stuff is?
Peter.
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Thanks to both Peter and BB.
Great explanation. Must be if even I get it!
Mainly BB. But to be slightly funny/strange about it, if you don't feel very afraid, then we haven't done a good job. Look around you now and try to find something that hasn't been affected by oil (e.g hasn't any plastic in it, or been transported to you, etc.). Now how will things look in 20 years time?
Peter.
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i suspect the majority of people on this forum are in rented accomodation/ living with parents, friends, flatmates/ wanting to trade up.
people in these categories( including me) are obviously gleeful when we see the crash materialising as it will meet our objectives and vindicate the strategy we have taken.
i think we need to have the crash, but it gives me no satisfaction to see people such as these facing a huge loss in such a short period of time.
in some cases the people may be able to take the loss.
in other cases they will have been naive/ foolhardy or whatever.
for many it will be financial ruin including the effect on their personal lives.
i dont wish it on any of them, but this type of misery is about to unfold on a big scale
for every loser there is someone who made a killing and will enjoy the gains over the coming years.
life was never meant to be fair
I must admit that this whole aspect of things makes me feel slightly queasy,
Peter.
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Thanks Peter!
It was on here somewhere a couple of weeks ago. Listed about 32 countries I think.
The mist is clearing!
There's a good website which deals with this issue:
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/
It provides a lot of information such as the above,
Peter.
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Good post BB but I'm still confused
I know that many countries are saying we have reached Peak Oil already. I saw a list on here the other week, but if the Saudis and other folk are saying we haven't then I'm a tad confused.
Your post seems to say that the definition of Peak Oil is when we are down to the last 50% (I think), and I've seen that on other posts as well.
Others seem to say that the definition is when it becomes more difficult to extract.
Sorry for being so thick........just trying to understand it all in laymans (idiots) terms!
Indeed, a very good post BB.
I don't know what list you saw, but it may have been a list of the countries that have peaked. The concept of peak oil applies to individual wells, individual oil fields, countries and the world. So far, as far as we can tell, a number of countires have peaked (e.g. the US in 1971?, the UK in 1999, etc.), but the world has not yet, mainly because there is so much oil in Saudi Arabia. When Saudi Arabia peaks, then the world will peak....
...and then we're in trouble,
Peter.
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The trick of course is finding a plot. The financing is as difficult as you make it. The rewards ........ approx 30% saving. A lot of wedge !
I think that it's been discussed on this forum (but I'm new so I might be wrong), but effectively, house price inflation is home building plot inflation. So, as house prices fall, so should building plots,
Peter.
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As a matter of interest, do people in negative equity ever sell? or are they only ever repossessed?
If the former, are there any dangers for the buyer? The standard contract talks about all charges on the property being discharged, and in a "normal" house sale, some of the purchase price goes to pay off the mortgage. But in a negative equity situation, there isn't enough money for this. So presumably either the vendors come up with the extra cash, or....?
Peter.
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R-i-i-i-ght. Using oil requires no infrastructure. I'll remember that one.
Remember once the nuclear power stations are there, they could generate electricity for 30 years, not just the one. So the capital costs have to be divided between those years. We have 600bn / 30 = 30bn p.a. for infrastructure vs. 54bn p.a. for the fuel alone. But say the fuel for the nuclear reactors costs around 5bn (very pessimistic estimate), so we have 35bn vs. 54bn
Hey! The nuclear reactor is cheaper! Oops, add decommissioning and we're probably at around evens. So that is why the Chinese are in the process of building 16 of the things, along with 20 coal-fired plants. Oh and probably a few weeks from placing another $8bn order. I guess that is 40 of the 300 accounted for in one country alone!
Of course using oil requires infrastructure, it's just that we've already bought it; we haven't bought the other fuel infrastructure.And, of course, it's normally affordable, but in a peak oil environment, with the price of oil soaring, it may not be. [Rather than think in money terms, it's perhaps better to think in energy terms - at the point whyere there is no spare energy, we have to expend an awful lot of energy to develop a replacement. I don't think that it will prove possible.]
Peter.
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You're comparing the cost of the infrastructure to the cost of the fuel? Not an apples-to-apples comparison.
That's actually the whole point, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. If we use oil it costs 6 billion; if we want to use nuclear (or whatever), it not only costs whatever the fuel costs, it also costs building the infrastructure to use that fuel. That's why we are cattle-trucked
Peter.
Just 8 Years?
in House prices and the economy
Posted
I must admit that I don't quite see how it works. You sell the house to pay of the capital, and get a capital gain (in the theory) - but you don't have a house.
So why's it a good plan?
Peter.