hairy

Got a link to that mate? £303765 is about 3.5 * the combined average of your figures btw and £141,818 just under 3 * the dual household figures. Not many round here not dual income; not many professionals here not earning £45k+

I agree absolutely. Now, what has to be factored in is the local economy; if average earnings stay high in the area, house prices will. If a small town is reliant on one factory and they pay the best money in that area, the house prices in that area will be higher than surrounding areas. If that factory were to close, house prices would drop in that area and become lower than that of the surrounding area. The same could go for Reigate; it has a very, very high household income average so if that were to drop because of mass unemployment in London and the South East for professionals, then yes, I could see spectacular falls. But, at the moment, places, lets say less desireable in the area are dropping more. Places like Horley are dropping more than Reigate and places like Oxted. The reasons are obvious. As the market recovers, as and when that is, then these places rise quicker as well. What i cans ee, and it is being reported daily, is massive cuts in the prices of new build, and slightly older BTL, flats. In this area, drops in teh house prices are nominal at the moment. If you have a nice house, it sells and sells for good money.

No, I'm not. Look, this might be tricky, but bear with me. Worse case scenario: If you have a household income of 40k and you can only get 3 * that, you can borrow 120k. If you have a household income of 100k, you can borrow 300k. If a certain area has more of the former, house prices will be governed by that (being simplistic so you can understand), same goes for the latter. Which area is likely to have a higher average price; the one with higher average household income or lower?

No, please, once again, re read the post: Overall a change of -8% year on year with flats and terraces making most of that loss. Detached and semis up... So, what that means is that it's down -8% on the year, but that that -8% was mostly made up of losses on flats and terraces, but that semis rose in value last quarter (2.2%) and detached were up 13.1% (quarter) 7.9% (year on year). But even that's a touch skewed. *Edit. whatever, it's still a lot less than the 25% falls being mentioned and that was my point...

Oooh, irony alert... 'kin idiot.

12k is minimum wage. Train drivers earn 30k, conductors 25k (all get more with overtime). Tube drivers earn 40k mostly (with 40 days holiday).

Reigate and Banstead Overall a change of -8% year on year with flats and terraces making most of that loss. Detached and semis up...

Obviously I am not. I don't live within London.

wow, 18 price dropsin 331 sales in an area of 25,000 people in Reigate and RH2 covers more than that. Again, use of statistics should be very carefully managed. RH1 is Redhill and surrounding areas, about 60,000 and there have been 57 drops in 776 properties on the market. Wow, so about 6% have dropped their prices; panic, go fill the cars up, get some food off the shelves, where's my tin foil hat...

NO, honest, where do you guys come from? If a household income in Reigate is £100k and one in Carlisle £40k, where is a salary multiple going to be more? So, if you have an area with professionals earning 100k a year between them, and another 40k, which is likely to have higher prices? Then there are localised factors - Infrastructure, etc...

My point, again, is that in certain areas, the local market will sustain localised prices. Obviously ramping up prices in a deprived part of the North is a huge amount different than buying a high priced flat in Reigate. As, follow me on this if you can, Reigate has higher localised salaries, more professionals living there, more money in the area, better infrastructure, etc, etc, etc. The reason you state is why prices have bottomed out more in Manchester than in Reigate, so you're actually proving my point. With a mortgage, you cna buy anywhere. Choosing the right place is the key. So there are lots of different economic areas in the UK for the purposes of the housing market. If you want me to gold the lilly, I can e.g. 2 professionals living in this borough are likely to have a combined income of around 100k and more. 2 Professionals living in Carlisle will not be earning this or even close to this, so Carlisle will have lower property prices than Reigate.

and what does that mean? I said, again, if you ould re read the post, not just housing...

Speaking for myself, it's very good to get the opinion of the 5 odd % of intelligent posters here who have an astute understanding of the forces on the market right now; and that's Market's general, not just housing. Also, I do believe certain places are over priced and as I am looking to move to a certain place I thik is over valued, I am keeping an eye on the prices there and anecdotal evidence of drops. Also, devil makes work for idle.... and all that..

Reigate and Banstead borough

er, no, they're not, but if the average wage for one area is higher than the average wage of another, the amount you can lend will be more, in that area; so regional lending patterns will be different Hate to be nasty, but did you get one of those post Labout free degree's at an ex poly?

Nio, I'm not. If, perhaps, you could re read it, you'll see what I am saying is that if an across the board loss is 20%, knowing prices have fallen more in certain places (Wales, BTL flats, etc), than others, you can safely assume that prices have fallen less in places then the reported 'catastrophic' drops. You see, there's misuse of stats: house rprices have lost 25% in the UK so your house must be worth 25% less than you're asking vs. usage of Maths: Houses have dropped 50% in Area A assuming an average drop of 25%, then other areas will have dropped less than 25% Hope you get that.

No, it was at the same rate.

Sorry, I am Spartacus

My main issue here is the complete and utter misuse of statistics; there are drops, but please do not say it's across the board; if there have been drops of 20%, then some have gone down 50% and some none at all and probably a lot in between. In my borough, prices went up last quester by 2.8% and 8.8% year on year. Average wages, would comfortably be over £40k. Local prices, both for labour (cleaners, gardeners, etc) and food, beer, are higher than the average. It's utterly crazy for people to be uber bearish and then applying it to the whole economy, madness. There is a direct correlation with these city centre flats currently in freefall and the price falls aross the country; people, even on here, are reporting that these blocks of BTL flats are being reduced, in some cases, upwards of 60%. Can you people not see what this does to figures (tip: skew)? Overpriced flats of no value to anyone except the BTL and Developers are mainly behind most of the falls we are seeing. That bubbl has burst, well and truly and in places like Worcester, Leeds, Oldham, Newcastle these flats are properly being readjusted, skewing real prices. The Uber bears are crazy.

Bristol and /West Lloyds First Direct Nationwide etc, etc...

I strongly believe Brown thinks he's going to save us and that all he is doing is using extraordinary measures. Also, with all the money he (WE) has lent, you're, all, assuming none of it will be repaid. QE, from my very, very limited knowledge would appear to make our exports looks dandy to the outsider. So much for no protectionism... I think, genuinely and obviously this may come back and bitch slap me, that it's not as bad as most make out. The level of incompetance shown by bankers has been eye wateringly shocking, but we'll see a way out. Imagine the scenario next year when the banks have repaid, say 75% of their loans, new laws passed to stop things like this happening again, HPI under control and stable, recession beaten down for the meantime as we come out of it, yada, yada, yada - Just imagine even soem of this coming true and I genuinely do not think some of it unfeasible; this brown fella is a slippery eel you know.

1. I agree all sellers will have a view on what their property is worth so what will happen is that houses will be withdrawn from the market unless people have to sell. 2. No, EA's do lower prices as if they do not, it means they will not sell and would you not think and what sort of business moel is selling things for people, but chosing not to sell them? 3. Erm, they will, in all likelihood, be lower now than in their fixed term. Given rates were 5-6% not so long ago; my Mortgage supplier, on my family home, is 2% above BR; that makes for 3% now, or probably 2.5% on Thursday; those deals were simply not around in the past 3 - 10 years. I have friend son fixed rates of 6% hurting now because they signed them 7 months odd ago. People will be cheering the day their fixed rates finish imo.

There is no banking crisis I think you'll find; that's been averted. Toxic assets have been purchased, or agreed to be purchased, money has been loaned, they are now back to the line in the sand stage. Unless, somehow, you believe that they have witheld information from the government regarding their liabilities. Whilst we'll still be in recession for a while, the banks here have halted their slide and will now move on, probably slower, but the main part of this si over. AIG or no AIG, this is where the recovery starts I believe. I am telling you, this is being blown all out of proportion. Brown, the t0sspot, has been talking this crisis up so that when he does resolve it, courtesy of throwing all but the kitchen sink at it, which he will, he can say the electorate how well he has done. Hopefully, people are not that stupid that they will forget it was him who caused it all. But what are forums if not for opinions. I think Brown will pretend he's the magician and by 2010 will be pulling rabbits out of his hat all over the job. Smoke and mirrors it may be, but mark my words, that's what he's doing. I'll be roundly pilloried for this, but that's my view on this. If we were in the complete and utter shite, I am convinced we wouldn't be being told as much as we are.

If's a big word we seldom see on here. I am protected from negative equity unless we see 60% drops which will simply not happen. Currently, seeing 10% drop on my latest purchase which I protected up to a further 23%. I also have a firm contract with soemone, for five years, to rent out the houses so the repayments on the mortgage are covered, interest only, at 220% currently and this will rise a further amount this Thursday and as this is in capital repayment, the costs are reducign monthly as are the mortgages. My only problem could come if in 5 years the world has gone crazy, all you people with tin foil hats on your heads are right and we've dropped 90% of value. But then, hopefully, my contract for the houses is renewed and I have another 5 years worry free. If people are not buying a house, you have to assume they have to rent one so if people start buying HPI happens and I'm ok, if not, people rent and, well yes, I am happy; as long as the interest is, at the least, covered, I lose nothing until I have to sell and I simply will not sell unless it's right for me. And, if you say, the market still continues dropping, I am lucky enough to have enough liquid assets to buy another one by chucking a big deposit and speaking to the people who bulk rent my places. Win - Win - House prices will rise. As much as you can prophecise that house prices will drop further, it's a guess. saying house prices will rise again is not a guess. I am also, as some people know, lookig at this from a 14-18 year perspective and if they continue to be rented out, I am not going to lose a red cent.

One of the main weaknesses re bull vs. bear arguments is that they appear to leave little room to have an actual opinion. My main argument is, and always has been, that different areas will suffer differently in any downturn; that each area has a local economy more important than any countrywide one i.e. if an area can support higher prices through higher local wages, better infrastructure, location relative to where money is, then it will suffer less drops than a place that has none of the above. Now whilst I am not stupid enough to deny there have been falls, in my area (Reigate and Banstead) these falls have been nominal in some parts and non existent in other parts of the borough. This is down to location. However, I am from the West Country and have long been a stupefied as to how the prices in the, what I deem as, ‘near West Country’ (North Dorset/East Somerset/Wilts) have matched growth in the South of London South East nearly pound for pound. I have written large that I believe these areas have more ground to fall to get back in line with realistic prices; they have a lot further to adjust. Some places are being marketed for more than they’d get in Reigate and there just isn’t any support for these prices in the local areas via wages and it’s not really commutable. The prices in these areas have long surprised me and I have been waiting for them to adjust to move back to a nice big old place. As for being Bull or Bear, I’d say I was bullish about the market in my current area and bearish about the West Country (and other areas). I have quite a few BTL and have just bought another in my current area as mortgages are very attractive currently and I believe long term houses still make a great investment especially given the reasons for that belief in my area; I still wouldn't BTL in the West Country, that's not realistically priced as yet. So, in short, I am bit of both. I think it is being blown out of proportion, the recession; I have lived through a few of them and the only thing that differentiates this one is the amount of information available to people that wasn’t in previous recessions i.e. blogs, twitter, 50+ news channels, Internet, etc, etc. This forum being a place that is a prime example: If you believed 90% of the drivel posted on this site, you’d believe the world is close to Armageddon; it’s not it’s a recession and we’ll get out of it. House prices will drop, as they do in recession, and then when we are out of recession, they will rise again. The only way this will stop is if we, us Brits, have a cultural change in our attitudes. If, in my area, prices do drop more, then I will buy more places.