Peter Hun
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Posts posted by Peter Hun
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In Sarf America most defaulted on their loans due to the punative interest rate set (and subsequently piss-takingly raised) by the evil sheriff IMF magnates!
Can you be specific? Argentina nationalised its pensions to pay back the IMF and bond holders. Bastards the IMF; giving them money to buy food and oil and having the cheek to ask for interest payments.
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rather than force the ECB to account for its own monumental culpability in allowing out-of-control German and French banks to lend recklessly to Irish banks,
Oh, the 'we didn't regulate our banks so its your fault' excuse. Very popular in Iceland that.
EDIT for correct context.
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Peter, I understand your arguments and can sympathise with your point of view.
It would have been far better for the French to have sat down and talked through an amicable solution with Louis XVI. Unfortunately they decided to chop his head off.
I fear the Irish, Portuguese, Greek and Spanish crises will not end amicably either.
It will end with the European bank printing as much money as needed and giving it away to whoever needs it, devaluing the Euro in the process. Simple.
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Even Krugman thinks that default is the logical approach for Ireland ....
"Bankrupting yourself to recovery" seems to be the first step towards admitting that you have a problem and dealing with it.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYq2N_r7cIU8&pos=6
Does he mention that the Icelandic currency is invalid? You cannot convert it into real money. Its not floating, its the same as the Soviet Rouble, officially it was at parity with the USD, in reality it exchanged at 7:1.
That the figures he presents for Iceland mask a future fall of 50% in their currency that will cause another complete economic collapse.
Why doesn't he use Argentina's default as an example?
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and
"Location: Battersea"?
I guess I should update that to say Poland.
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you didn't disappoint me...i had a wager to myself how long it would be until you mentioned those 2 countries (incidentally one of which i've visited and wouldn't desribe as hell...at least not then anyway). i'm really not that bothered by "rising property values" in argentina or anywhere else. i've made my money....falls or rises they'll always be further opportunities.....you've just got to roll with the punches.
to be honest i haven't got time to read up on all your previous posts....are you someone who thinks GREAT Britain is still one of the worlds best places to live? you obviously put crime very high on your criteria for determining "standard of living" but at the cost of everything else????
You don't fail to disappoint.
I emigrated from the UK over a year ago. Might go back, off and on.
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I think it is a good idea, at the risk of being off my head.
The idea of bankruptcy is that you cant pay, the lender has to take a loss. This seems right, after all the lender has a responsibility for themselves or whoever's money was lent, to be sure that the borrower can repay. If they get that decision wrong, they have to suffer the consequences.
Now what is happenign is when A cannot pay B, C is being robbed to make good on the commitment to repay. Is that better than default? Of course it isnt, A and B should suffer the consequences.
Now there may be a resultant chain of defaults throughout the financial system, I say let it happen. Central banks can deal with this. You simply take the insolvent financial institution, wipe out the equity holders, and turn a portion of bondholders stakes into equity, and voila, you have a standing bank once again, who can get on with forwarding credit.
Sure, there are going to be those who are going to take huge losses, and the worst problems will be in pension funds. I believe that the law should be changed so that all pension scheme members have their entitlements cut equally, irrespective of whether they have retired or not. That means those who are retired will see a reduction in their benefits, as they will be sharing the pain equally with scheme members still working.
But we have to do this. You cant just tax those who had nothing to do with these contracts. If you do that, the moral hazard problem becomes uncontained. You just have a free mechanism to allow bankers to take whatever risks they like, with the consequences falling on others. They will just take those risks, until the currency on which transactions are made, blows up.
The threat bankers make of blowing up the system, has to be faced down.
Sounds nice in theory but not what actually happens. (Iceland as an example). I'm certain default would mean instant rejection from the Euro. Irish bank accounts would be void outside ireland. The Irish paper notes would be rejected at banks around Europe; if they can spot forgeries then an Irish serial number would be easy. Everything Ireland imports would have to be paid in hard currency; therefore exports would have to hand over currency to the central bank. Ireland is luckey it has an balance of trade surplus. So it could use this to pay back its debtors until its had a valid currency again. Meanwhile economic stagnation, inflation, no money, no credit cards.
Plus God knows what other side effects, no new investment from overseas and a good chance corporates would move from Ireland as their would be capital controls prevent export of income. Hopefully the EU doesn't collapse as other countries could then add import tarrifs to the tax free companies in ireland..
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And you're not a leicestersq - I know, I've been there and it wasn't you
Because it would herald the official collapse of the EU. They're not ready yet.
Its not going to happen. The Euro will survive thats 100% certain, every tax payer in the west will pay for it and they will have no choice, they won't riot, just winge.
I wouldn't personally be too affected by a collapse of the money system in UK and Europe. I have access to legal guns and food straight from the farm. However, anybody who thinks that default is a good idea is off their head. You - everyone - will be drastically and serverly affected for decades to come.
If ireland want to do it, let them, the ECB/IMF/US would bail out UK and Europe. Ireland would sink, but as the example of Argentina and Iceland are obviously not prominant enough, I think we could do with another even closer to home to see the effect.
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i think this is all getting a bit off topic but peter don't believe everything that you read about places....and there are lies, damns lies and statistics...there are pro's and con's about living in south africa, argentina and the uk, but do yourself a favour and gain some first hand experience before you start jumping to conclusions
You are right, I've heard some good stuff about rising proprty values in Baghdad and Kabul. 99.7% of American visitors come back from there without a scratch
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It was a direct result of Stalin and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Saying the west is at fault is like saying you asked for it if you were burgled because you have stuff worth nicking. It's the thief's fault, not the victims.
Britain went to war because of Poland in 1939 - and the Anglo-Americans (+canucks, french, etc) were not going to launch WW 3 against the Soviet Union and Red Army in early 1945 for Poland - Europe was wrecked and her people didn't want another 2 or 3 years of total war after they'd just had 5 or 6. Plus the Americans still hadn't defeated Japan and had yet another war to wage in the East.
Maybe the UK/US should have told the 400k Polish soldiers, in British uniforms fighting and dying to regain a free Poland, in 1943 when they handed over Poland to the Soviets.
UK and France (in particular) could have upheld the secret agreement to help Poland when they were attacked in 1939. The UK called it a Phony War, it fact it was doing nothing will Poland fought expecting the promised counterattack. Germany's border was defended by 7 divisons, if the French had continued their feeble invasion of Germany the was could have finished in 1939 with German defeat; the Poles destoyed a quarter of the german airforce and tied up most of the German Army.
The UK and France did basically nothing. In Poland is not called the Phony War, its the Western Betrayal.
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Seeing as the USA will need to borrow the money to give to the IMF to bailout the EU, does this mean China will be our new leaders?
This whole merry-go-round makes me laugh. However, when this train finally comes off the tracks, I fear it's going to be a complete calamity for the entire world. S0d my gold haul, I'm really concerned about the possibility of WW3 breaking out in the aftermath of total economic collapse.
Well, I'm not worried either, I'll just find out where you live and steal yours. Or any one of the similar, desperate people who read this would do first.
You think its a smart move advertising to the world that you have gold?
I remeber reading The WiseGuys/Goodfellas book. In reality 25% of people can be easily bribed/forced to give information you need to perform a robbery.
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It all depends where you live - the fact is that most murders and especially rapes are done by blacks and the victims are also black, if that sounds like racism I make no apology
So, yes the odds are 20 times higher in certain areas but for people like me fortunate enough to live in a good area, the odds are a lot less, plus we are allowed to defend ourselves (unlike the UK)
Chances of me being glassed or stabbed by a chav are probably 20 times lower than in the UK, so swings and roundabouts
I'll reply with (the brilliant logic) that I've lived in the Uk and never got stabbed and don't know anyone who has done. So it must be safe.
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Ireland will default. Whether you like it or not.
I really hope it does. I got lot of 'enlightenment' reading about the consequences in Iceland and Argentina. Not having one penny of pension, a mortgage or anything but (soon to be inflated away) debt and living at the very far side of the EU in growing economy I have nothing to lose.
However, even if you change government i can guarantee you Ireland will not default, you will get the excuses about the consequences would be worse etc. etc.
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No they won't. Over the next few years 'the lenders' will be struggling to survive, most concerned about their own situation, and ultimately they too will fail.
Everyone and their cat has already, is about to, or will in the near future, default (or print, which amounts to the same thing). In this situation, only the patsy continues to play the humble serf and continues to pay.
Peter, Ireland will default. If it takes a peoples revolution or an opportunist political party to do it, Ireland will default. Whether you like it or not, this will happen.
ed. sp
Who do you think the 'lenders' are?
They are, basically you and me. Ireland defaults then the several times GDP its lent to other countries is lost as well. Irish pensioners lose their pension. Which means that money - many times GDP - is lost to .. Ireland. Pensioners who spend money and employing people. Pensioners who will now need state payments to compensate them for the lost pension. paid for by taxing the working.
Correct, there is no easy way out. But I'd rather not my children and children's children keep paying ad infinitum, while the rest default.Oh, but your grandchildren will pay for a default. Argenitina is still paying for its past defaults and it will take two generations,forty years, before the risk of a default is fully wiped out. Until that happens, a defaulters children will be made to pay. Argentina and Iceland have taken a 75% currency devaluation after default (although Iceland offical exchange rate is fixed at a mear 50% fall). Add on a 50% house price crash to a 75% currency devaluation and thats some loss of 'wealth'.
BTW, in Iceland the default worked like this. No company can deal with overseas buinsesses, you cannot make payments is ISK. Everything has to go through the government who convert ISK to Euros at the 'official' rate. Anyone who requires real currency apllies for a daily stiped when travelling abroad. Foreign currency accounts are seized.
Credit cards stop working . International money transfres stopped between Irish acconts. Irish Euros' rejected. The easy with which is was done to Iceland was surprising.
This is the sort of thing you would get with a default.
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one world currency...yeah thatll work.
11 nation currency didnt work.
100 nation currency will work even less.
1000 nation currency has no chance whatsoever.
unless, it is freely chosen.
Well, not until we find another planet with 804 nations on it anyway.
The Euro didn't work are it was constructed, but the sneaky bastards knew that they would be able to force the structure required onto the members afterwards.
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Poland got its first snow of the year.
Total choas. Public transport badly affected, accidents blocking roads. roads snared up.
Its the same every year when the snow comes. Happens in Germany as well.
Summer tyres are useless in snow.
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utter ********. no chance of this whatsoever.
To keep the Euro going, they will do it. USA is a massive benificary of the single market and the failure of the Euro devaste the world economy; they will not let it happen.
Print a few trillion Dollars and Euro's and the problems will go away. Inflation will solve all debts.
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Go ahead and default. The lenders will get their money back with interest from Ireland over the next few decades - governments (Irish, banks and businesses) cannot survive without new borrowing. They will be made to pay a premium in future.
And Ireland will still get more bad results from the defaulting than keeping their heads down and just paying it all off.
There is no easy way out.
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That's £14600 a year, it's a start
Double it to account for inflation
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My late father was a qualified welder( in all of the various forms, mig, arc and whatever else)cannot remember. Ayway, he was getting £7.50 a hour in 1992, and he thought that was bloody good money.
Now nearly 20 years later, a qualified welders wage starts from about £8,p.h. The wage certainly has not gone up much, compared with 20 years ago, it is cobblers, considering it is quite a skilled trade. Sign of the times or what?? Does being skilled in your job/trade mean nothing now??
The World is now flat, you have to compete against third world workers and not depend on your birthright to compete.
I personally think it was a mistake and letting in the relatively impoversihed post-Soviet countries into EU in the 2000s should've been much more gradual and taken more than twenty years.The poverty of Poland was a direct result of the Western Betrayal in the 1940.
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Yes, RTB, a daft policy if ever there was one. Just another way for people to game the system.
When council rents are the same as private rents for equivalent property, is there any need for an expensive council to administer housing, other than to process HB claims? After all, those homes could be in the private sector.
Hardly. The RTB discount is a maximum of 18K, so in London its about 5-10%. Most of the property is older and its actually cheaper for HA's to build new apartments with the money from selling older property. Peabody is selling their houses in auction and building new. The properties I saw sold to 'the highest bidder' went for far less (-30%) that other identical property nearby.
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Perhaps housing associations will have more money to build as new tenants get higher rates of HB to pay the higher rent.
That will be the main effect, giving more money to the housing associations. The Affordable rents (80%) of 'market' rates won't be very appealing unless the government is paying it. If you are poor enough for social housing how are you supposed to be able to be afford social housing. In London that would mean £800 per month for a single bed apartment - how is that social housing?
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Nationwide figures (nominal)
Nov 10: 163,398
Feb 09 (recent trough): 147,746
Oct 07 (peak): 186,044
May 04: 149,020
So we're 12% off the peak. To return to the recent trough in nominal terms needs a fall of a further 9.6%. Any bigger fall would put us back to April 04 prices.
Inflation adjusted its down 19% .
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/12/01/423111/homeowners-luckier-this-time/
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The problem? unaffordable housing.
I could have made clearer. I was referring to your highltighted text requesting an inflation adjusted figure - i assumed you felt the relevance of the inflation adjusted figure would help support prices temporarily as the tone of your reply was to bring prices down slowly.
My view is that without wage inflation, an increase in the cost of other goods will impact on how much people can afford to spend on a mortgage.
Ok. I see your point. Basically house prices will keep falling until they are eventually affordable. I'd say its impossible to say how long becuase the charts indicate its way longer than you could guess the future economic situation.
Answering mine, 19% is the inflation adjusted fall from peak..
More interesting is their illustration – through a comparison with house price falls in the early 1990s – of the pressures on prices which could contribute to future fluctuations. From Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide’s chief economist:A general conclusion that can be drawn is that although house prices have so far fallen by less than they did in the early 1990s, house purchase activity has fallen by more. Over the first 18 months of the current downturn, real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) house prices tracked the path of the early 1990s very closely….
Over the following 18 months, however, real house prices staged a small rebound, whereas in the early 1990s they continued falling broadly at the previous rate of decline. As things currently stand, real house prices are 19% below their 2007 peak, whereas at the equivalent stage of the early 1990s downturn, they were 31% below their peak.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/12/01/423111/homeowners-luckier-this-time/
If Europe Goes Argentina
in House prices and the economy
Posted
I've updated my profile and no of course its not crime free, but most of the trouble comes from the English stag night drunks (apparently, not seen anything myself.)