Peter Hun
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Posts posted by Peter Hun
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5 hours ago, XswampyX said:
The population of Sunderland is over 250,000 and 7,000 of them know they are to be replaced by foreign workers at some point.
What do they have to fear?
The ratio is 5:1 indirect to direct jobs will be lost. So 35 k jobs out of about 100k workers. On top will be the increased tax burden which will be painful.
I guess 'horrors of economic blackspots' from 1980 TV have faded from memory.
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1 hour ago, Konig said:
But we have to realise the Brexit vote said implicitly that we should not have freedom of movement in way we had in the past. That is about control, not saying people from Europe cannot come into the UK.
No it didn't.
This is why the Cons deciding to implement Article 50 without any consultation with Parliament is so wrong. They have given themselves a 'do what I want card' without any interference from the electorate whatsoever.
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1 hour ago, Konig said:
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1 hour ago, kzb said:
No don't think so.
I just thought it worth pointing out there are economic experts whose models are in conflict with the Treasury model.
There is also a belief that all "experts" are in agreement that Brexit will have a negative economic impact, whereas here you can see some professors in economics who say the opposite. Whatever you think of them, their credentials as economic "experts" exceeds anyone's on this forum.
Whoever they are, they are ****ing idiots.
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12 minutes ago, kzb said:
Here are some "experts" on the economic predictions publicised on Newsnight earlier this week:
Treasury trade analysis offers a poor evaluation of post-Brexit trade alternatives:
- EEA Norway - Whilst not economically the preferred option, The EEA / Norway trade analysis assumes a significant cost increase due to administrative hassle, which is based on little, if no evidence. Standard trade model shows a nil effect of this arrangement.
- Canada option – The Treasury costs this as worse than the Norway option, because it believes financial services Single Market contributes to trade and productivity. However, there is currently no real Single Market in the services industry and therefore, worst case scenario is no effect, but one could conclude a positive impact.
- WTO option – The Treasury assumes, through the impact on openness and FDI a net cost of 8% of GDP. However, it fails to acknowledge even the most basic of facts that that current EU protection increases consumer prices (by our analysis by 20%) and therefore does not recognise the corresponding fall in consumer prices post-Brexit or the resulting benefits on raising productivity and wages.
From
http://www.economistsforbrexit.co.uk/publications/
Thats a joke, right?
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8 minutes ago, Crumbless said:
Sums you up.
PS Your beloved LIBLABs paedophilia was exposed and you still support them.
Is this directed at anyone in particular?
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11 minutes ago, Crumbless said:
Surely its past time this topic was moved to the subforum, all it does is attract attention seeking Bremainer trolls who have no interest in house prices
Oh dear, don't like it when the reality of UKIP's thuggery is exposed, why don't you run away and hide instead of attempting to bury the news.
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14 minutes ago, Futuroid said:
They inward investment in the form of factories (Skoda, Audi, etc have plants in EE) and the option to sell their goods (think agriculture, raw materials, clothing) into the EU.
Poland's exports are far more complex than that.
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/pol/
FoM is in many ways bad news for Poland because they have expensively educated (£400k to train a doctor in the UK) their young people, only for then to bugger off to the UK and contribute to its GDP. Its the reason behind the new £100 per month child benefit policy and the anti abortion law - to overcome the demographic time bomb (which the UK will soon suffer)
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56 minutes ago, Byron said:
I lived through the real austerity of the 1940's, not this Corbyn wet dream.
Dad dug up the lawn to plant veg and keep chickens.
So did my wife's parents.
Britain is seriously broken. You English southern lightweights do not understand.
In Wales, we have the Taffia, fascism and social engineering (No English speaking schools in some counties for instance)
Scotland wants to split.
The North of England hates the South.
Nobody cares if things get bad, we who have nothing have nothing to lose.
Yeah. I'm all for taking whatever you do have.
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2 hours ago, hotairmail said:
Why would we lose access for financial services if the Yanks et al have access?
We may lose Euro clearing and vice versa of course. European bank stuff - but getting out of being shackled to the Euro banking corpse is a major, major plus. May lose some revenue short term, but getting out of risky liabilities is far more important.
The Yanks don't have EU access, which is why they relocated to the EU (London) to get access and spent 10's of billions to do so. Now they will have to move.
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36 minutes ago, pig said:
Our Exports:
United States (17%) 88bn
Germany (8%) £43bn
France (6%) £31bn
Ireland (5%) £28bn
Switzerland (4%) £23bn
China (4%) £19bn ?
Belg/Lux ((4%) sorry bored
Italy (3%)
Spain (3%)Total Export Europe: 8+6+5+4+4+3+3= 33%
Why the long historical links ? Proximity and language - especially (obviously) the US. Most likely cultural too.
Of course according to Liam Fox its because we are fat lazy and stupid. You know, like politicians.
So how good is our hand ?
Yes thats right - feckin' 4-5%
Lets be generous and take the bigger exporters e.g.
Germany export to UK 7% - (interpretation: sure play hardball now **** off UK)
France Export to UK 7% - (interpretation: sure play hardball now **** off UK)As the FT article makes clear, Brexiters and the EU members have one thing in common... the economic arguments are irrelevant.
Saving the EU and Saving the UK is a POLITICAL issue.
So ******ing over each other is a guaranteed and desired result of any negotiations.
This is a war the UK will lose and it is what the UK voted for
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I fell for a cold calling FT salesman and accepted a 'free' 30 day subscription. I needed the online subscription, they didn't give it to me.
FT automatically converted it into a £750 per year paper only subscription at the end of 30 days, without telling me. FT simply withdrew the first quarters fee out of my bank account and refused to allow me to cancel.
As it violated the standing order guarantee, my bank refunded it and FT graciously decided to cancel the day after.
The news paper only subscription is pretty useless.. you can't search.
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If WTO rules apply, how will Germany lose their trade surplus? The UK cannot stop or penalise the EU exports.
Single market access loss will kill our Services (we import £25bn in services which will also be lost). About £38bn is in Financial services, the rest in other industries.
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1 hour ago, Unexpected said:
Doesn't appear to be priced into the markets. In fact the markets are up. Why?
Because the FTSE100 companies earn in Dollars so do the opposite of the Pound.
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1 hour ago, geezer466 said:
All is fair in love and war...... The various EU nations will then lose £120 billions of their exports into the UK.
On the balance of trade each way we can be re-markedly relaxed. They need our aero engines and top end engineering as it is the best there is. We can get yoghurts, cheese and bacon from anywhere....
Except we can't stop the EU export to the UK under WTO rules, but we can't sell to the Single Market if we aren't members.
Also this is Services, not Goods, so why do you mention cheese and Jet engines.
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11 minutes ago, Crumbless said:
Can i have a breakdown of how you came up with this figure?
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/International_trade_in_services
QuoteThe United Kingdom was the largest exporter among the EU Member States for extra EU-28 international transactions in services. In 2013 it accounted for a 21.3 % share of exports leaving the EU for non-member countries. The United Kingdom recorded the highest surplus for international trade in services with extra EU-28 partners (EUR 78.8 billion), followed by France (EUR 21.6 billion) and Germany (EUR 13.4 billion). Ireland was the only EU Member State that recorded a deficit (EUR 3.6 billion) for extra EU-28 transactions in services, although the Czech Republic’s extra EU trade position for services was balanced (see Table 3).
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We are going to lose £80billion of our exports, if you think that won't have an effect, dream on.
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1 hour ago, Sancho Panza said:
SW8 poster boy of the coming crash.2000 properties for sale,june 2016 saw 30 transactions which is 5 years worth of inventory.
July sales were 22 in SW8. 4 in the new devleopments, 1 of which was a new sale.
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13 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:
MOrtageg advisor.
Nope, I'm a cleaner in a bank. Fill the dish washer, etc.
Sales at the lowest level since 2008, in SW11
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On 04/10/2016 at 11:33 AM, london_thirtythree said:
Is quite interesting just how many people on this forum are 'insiders'..
Says something in itself about the state of the housing market in a way :-)
(disclaimer: am not an insider, but have worked with some that are)
I'm a tenant of a Housing Association. My job is in property finance.
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9 hours ago, Nabby81 said:
They don't have small deposits they have deposits that reflect their income , shared ownership is a ticking time bomb..IMO.So many ads in London for these schemes , just how do people only able to afford 25% of a place expect to every pay off the remaining 75% especially with HPI inflating the 75% far in excess of any gains made in their 25%
Shared Ownership is a con , it's a way for developers to keep selling places that are unaffordably priced in first place
My 'Charitable' Housing association is selling 2 bed flats at 900k, 25% SO. The beauty of SO is that the developer entirely covers his build cost and gets interest at 2.5% on the balance as 'rent'. No discount on the 75% of course, on the other hand 40% falls are predicted for Nine Elms, so you should protect yourself against a fall
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8 minutes ago, ccc said:
If not - UKIP are going to become very powerful again IMO.
They were never powerful
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30 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:
That actually makes our position on trade negotiations even stronger.
No it doesn't. A weaker currency makes us a poorer customer and more competitive exporter
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4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:
Because nothing bad could possibly come from making it more difficult to export into your largest market?
Because of Brexit our debt levels are going to get even more insane, as the chances of balancing the books anytime in the foreseeable future will be approximately nil. Of course there is nothing to say that we cannot have both and old fashioned and Brexit recession together.
We export £80billion in services to the Single Market (and import £25billion). How much of a tax hit will that be be? Our debt situation will indeed become critical.
On the positive side, our huge trade deficit in Goods will not be (much) affected by exiting the Single Market, so the EU will be ok.
Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
in House prices and the economy
Posted
The only thing May can claim she has authority to perform is invoke A 50. Everything else has to be approved by Parliament.