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Quiet Guy

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  1. Judging by the HMRC site, the value you can bring in from non-EU countries is £390. http://www.hmrc.gov....rivingnoneu.htm Maybe it's better just to ask them. http://search2.hmrc....20&raction=view
  2. I'm not sure where to put this on the forums - it's as much about psychology as investments - but anyway, I think it is a bit interesting. A good investment process is really difficult to achieve and even harder to sustain. The variables are many and the problems challenging. Charlie Munger borrowed a highly useful idea from the great 19th Century German mathematician Carl Jacobi that provides a helpful way to deal with the myriad problems investors face in trying to establish a good investment process. ... The key investment application (beyond the benefits of inverting the problems we face generally) is that in most cases we'd be better served by looking closely at the examples of people and portfolios that failed and why instead of the success stories http://pragcap.com/i...t-always-invert
  3. Not entirely sure what you're getting at here. I agree with the idea that you take a loan to "spend the output of my future work" but banks cannot make money out of thin air (by themselves.) There are certain criteria that must be satisfied for the creation of money to take place: 1. There must be a party willing to sign the loan (borrower.) 2. The borrower must be deemed creditworthy by the bank (i.e. will repay loan.) 3. The bank may have to satisfy capital regulatory requirements (which I won't discuss further because I find them a bit confusing.) At the point of making the loan, the bank writes an asset and a liability into its books: - Asset is the loan/debt - Liability is the cash issued to borrower. Obviously, the loan/debt vaue will be greater than the cash value and the bank hopes to profit on this after future operating costs. The main gripe about this type of banking is that the more loans the banks issues, then the greater their profits so they need to find a safe way to make lots of loans. Generally banks try to avoid risk by securing rights to assets that can be confiscated if a loan goes bad. It turns out that the easiest type of loan security is against residential property so ... we have a system that encourages banks to create loads of new money for property loans. What could possibly go wrong? And when the banks do get into trouble, we seem to have to bail them out. And we have no choice but to play this wonderful game because we have to live somewhere i.e. choose between renting or playing the property market.
  4. Reports of gold's (alleged) demise are going mainstream. Gold price plunges as confident investors pile out of safe havens End of a 13-year boom as US economic upturn sees investors confidently selling gold and buying shares November brought more bad news for believers in the eternal power of gold: the commodity saw its sharpest monthly price fall since June. This month's 6% drop makes 2013 a terrible year for gold, and is set to mark the end of a 13-year boom. Gold is heading for its first annual fall since 2000 after shedding a quarter of its value this year. ... Georgette Boele at Dutch bank ABN Amro said: "The gold bubble has burst and … more of gold's previous supportive drivers are about to push the precious metal much lower. As such we expect additional large sell-offs." In India, traditionally the world's biggest consumer of gold, the government has imposed punishing duty on gold purchases which has led to mass recycling of some of the 20,000 tonnes of gold stashed in Indian homes. Consumers in China have been buying gold as they become more affluent. But Boele predicts that despite this, it will fall to $1,000 an ounce next year and $800 in 2015. http://www.theguardi...onomies-improve
  5. I remember seeing an advert for spread betting which invited the punters to work out what gold was going to do next. There was an ilustration with loads of text bubbles and arrows to illustrate potential links. Check it out: http://www.financial...ent_mapping.jpg Now have you worked it out? (snigger) It's in human nature to look for reasons and order but I think the point of the advert is to trick you: short term movements in big global markets are essentially random. That's a slightly depressing thought but I think IG wanted to encourage people to look for cause and effects to entice them to make bets. If we stand back and look at the gold market from a 10 or 20 year perspective, you might see a huge bubble that is taking to years to deflate. Some people here won't like that idea at all but maybe there is no argument to explain things - it just is.
  6. Essentially, he is correct. The UK economy is improving. Some might say that our economy doesn't manufacture enough but money is money wherever it comes from. The odds on a HPC seem very remote in the next five years. There are two big questions to be addressed after the next general election: Will our politicians have the courage to terminate the totally unnecessary 'Help to Buy' scheme? (in 2017 I think) When will interest rates for savers start rising? Perhaps when the election is out of the way our leaders will stop tinkering with the markets for a while. I suspect that the recovery is concentrated on the South East and perhaps is being primarily enjoyed by those on the higher end of the salaries spectrum.
  7. @Old Nis @DiggerUK I have no interest in getting into a spat with either of you about Maguire but there has been some notable news about this man recently: http://www.kitco.com...ver-Summit.html http://www.kitco.com...-Class-Act.html
  8. Sadly, I think he is correct. Trying to spend these coins would be like trying to pay for a round of drinks with a Scottish £20 note in South East England. The vendor has no obligation to accept the payment. I should have realised this offer was too good to be true. Back to my usual policy of avoiding the Royal mint then ...
  9. The Royal Mint have just started advertising a new £20 coin. http://www.royalmint..._and_the_Dragon Normally, I wouldn't consider buying from the Mint but this particular offering has me wondering if this is worth a go: Can you imagine a £20 coin? The Royal Mint has never struck one before, but in 2013, for the very first time, an official, legal tender UK £20 coin will be available. Exclusively available in the UK and only available online. This is the £20 coin of the people, at an affordable price that makes it an ideal gift for everyone – made of fine silver, carrying one of our most famous designs and, most importantly, priced at just £20. Your £20 coin has inherent, lasting value – you can purchase with confidence it is worth what you paid for it. The coins contains 15.71g of .999 silver i.e. bullion vaue of about £7.55 at today's prices but has a theoretical spending value of £20. Can a bank refuse to take legal tender? Though I'm not 'in' metals at the moment, I thought this might be worth a look for anybody who is thinking of buying e.g. Brittanias at this time. There is a limit of three coins per household and they can only be bought online from the Mint (for now.)
  10. because this is a Financial Times article, you'll need to register to read it. The FT does not like people quoting from their article either so I'll give you a summary instead. http://www.ft.com/cm...144feabdc0.html Essentially, UK gold exports to Switzerland have changed from 83 tonnes in the first half of 2012 to 798 tonnes in the first half of 2013. We can argue all day about what this means but there seems little doubt that the metal is flowing to Eastern investors. ETF investors are selling while Eastern buyers are willing to pay to more for the metal. Swiss metal refiners are currently working hard to keep up with the demand for refining the 4000toz bars into forms more suitable for Eastern buyers.
  11. Funny you should say that. I've just put a comment on the blog. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2013/08/blog-i-promise-the-tide-will-not-come-in-i-promise-39902.php From a contrarian point of view, you should expect the bulk of frustrated HPCers to throw in the towel just as the market trend changes. Incidentally, I don't track the numbers on the forum so cannot comment about that but there has been a big drop in blog comments even though the viewing numbers are still quite high.
  12. Regular readers may recall that I have become quite bearish about PMs over the next year or so. That doesn't mean I won't listen to contrary opinions. There seems to be a breaking story about short covering in PMs: http://money.msn.com...as-shorts-cover It's finally happening. After being beaten down for so long, gold and silver are breaking out in what appears to be the first uptrend initiation since July 2012. There are many catalysts. As I've written about recently, inflationary pressures are building in the global supply chain as central banks look poised to repeat the mistake of keep money too cheap for too long. Also contributing is a fresh rebound in global economic activity as factories spool up to replenished dwindling inventories. The U.S. dollar has been weakening. But above all, Wall Street types are fueling the surge as overextended short positions -- bets against silver and gold -- are quickly being closed. That suggests the move higher is just starting. Does anybody think there's anything in this? At the very least, there seems to be scope for a short term bounce.
  13. Mike Shedlock discusses gold and predictions: http://globaleconomi...-on-making.html I think Shedlock is sensible and often gives good analysis but even he appears to be struggling to make the case for a bull market. Is the secular bull market over now? I doubt it, but I suppose it's possible. Why do I doubt it? Because secular bull markets tend to end with public participation in a massive way and prices going parabolic. Here are some examples: Gold and silver in the 1980s, tech stocks in 2000, housing in 2005, the stock market in general in 2007 and arguably again (this time on the misguided belief the Fed has the markets back and nothing can go wrong). but another comment illustrates the difficulty for anybody trying to buy and hold: Price Targets People keep asking, but I have no price targets for either gold or silver. Within a couple years, neither $1,000 nor $2,500 would shock me for the price of gold. However, history suggests the secular bull will not end without the public going gaga over the stuff. From $1000 to $2500 is quite a range. If we hit $2500 in the next two years, the bulls will be all over this forum but at $1000 the bears will be claiming vindication.
  14. Well maybe $500 is a little provocative but I genuinely think it's not impossible. I'm not going to take you up on the bet for purely practical reasons - you cannot contact me. Regarding "wishful thinking", I don't want to see anybody here lose money and I loved the bull market when there seemed to be only one way for gold to go. If and when I'm satisfied that gold has returned to normal then I'll seriously consider buying some again. I'm just calling it the way I see it.
  15. I'm definitely in the waiting camp. Unlike most here, I've come to the conclusion that gold could go a lot lower from here and there is a better chance of making a profit by buying later. $500 gold anyone?
  16. That's a gutsy call. It shouldn't take more than six months to test the theory. Not even in China and India where there have been strong retail sales in recent years? My reason was to make money (I've sold now.) What's yours? I suggest that the Johnny come latelies should keep their powder dry for a while yet. $500 is a possible target. Signs of capitulation and revulsion in forums such as these would be another indicator that it's time to dabble in metals again.
  17. That's an interesting juxtaposition of those graphs. A couple of questions: Do you have any ideas about an undershoot value before return to the mean? Are you a disinterested sceptic who is just going to get your popcorn and watch the show, assuming you turn out to be correct, or are you waiting to buy cheap? Is there any level at which you will concede that maybe the bears are winning their argument?
  18. Silly me. I forgot the other stuff. You must have lipstick and prophylactics as well. Totally essential.
  19. Corrected for you: If paper money went to zero...i can assure you, any gold you were holding would probably be of no immediate no use to you. If you were able to escape or survive the catastrophe that destroyed the currency, however, gold would be an efficient store of wealth that could be traded for currency.
  20. You can pick up a copy without handing over your ID here: http://rapidshare.co...56/Gold2013.pdf Published by www.galvan.co.uk, dated 2 May 2013. I've never heard of this outfit before and their attempt to get marketing information is very aggressive - you must provide your phone number and consent to unsolicited phone calls to register with them. Ergh, no thanks. My overall impression of the report is that most of it is pretty sensible but a bit late. If they'd published this before the drop in April, I'd be more impressed. Notable points: - Breaching the $1,500 - $1,525 support level left the market primed for a cascade because there were so many stops clustered around that region. - Some of the big gold investors are not 'bugs' and will dispose of it quickly if they think the overall economic climate is improving - Indian banks have a thing for lending against gold collateral which could lead to a self reinforcing pattern of gold sales in some scenarios Personally, with hindsight, I think the gold surge was driven more by sentiment rather than any economic fundamentals and I, like many other bugs, didn't appreciate how vulnerable the price was until it corrected in April. I regard the correction as an ongoing thing. I'm not tempted to buy back in.
  21. I suggest that this isn't as simple as you suggest. An unfortunate side effect of this proposal is that it will punish those who are willing or forced to relocate for work reasons. My workplace has changed three times in last decade. I moved a significant distance each time to stay employed - should that make me ineligble for council housing? If anything, we should be encouraging labour mobility not punishing it.
  22. STOCK BUBBLE: WAIT FOR IT TO POP http://goldscents.bl...-it-to-pop.html Connor has been a metals bull as long as I've known his blog and he is still bullish for precious metals despite everything that happened in the last 18 months or so. His observations about previous peaks in other markets is interesting but he he appears to be unwilling to accept that gold and silver are correcting from frothy valuation levels just like tech stocks, property, oil and so on. I have posted this because it is a fascinating window into the mindset of the precious metals bulls IMO. Either they are right and it really will be different this time or the PM bulls are denying the chart evidence that is staring them in the face. Connor's closing sentence: "I strongly believe the next bubble will be in the precious metals market." So what do you think folks? Whatever your opinion, I hope that we can agree that PMs are entering a crucial test in the next few years: either PMs will revert to historical norms or the next real bull/bubble market will kick off. I think it will be interesting, to say the least, to observe the commentary from established bulls and bears as time passes.
  23. Thank you for your thoughtful comments - particularly the effort you put into the first one! "Cialdini quotes some interesting research that shows following well publicized celebrity suicides, not only is there a big increase in suicides, but also car accidents and aeroplane crashes - which were probably suicides." That was a bit creepy but interesting and new to me. I scored quite highly on your list of risk factors for tendency towards suicide. Hmm.
  24. I stumbled across this article at the Jim Sinclair Mineset. It's a discussion about the relationship between economic distress and suicide rates. http://www.washingto...depression.html Some quotes: "In a letter to The Lancet medical journal, scientists from Britain, Hong Kong and United States said an analysis of data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicated that while suicide rates increased slowly between 1999 and 2007, the rate of increase more than quadrupled from 2008 to 2010, Reuters reported." "The correlation between unemployment and suicide has been observed since the 19th century." A few of my thoughts about this: -> What would be the human price of a HPC? I do not believe that anybody here wants to see people hurt but it's hard to see how we can have a full on crash without some associated damage to people (go easy on the schadenfreude please.) -> Losing your job and/or house is obviously unpleasant but suicide? I think a lot of our expectations about life are relative and can be changed. Life on the dole for a while isn't great but still much better than in so many other parts of the world yet it seems that we don't think about life that way. Lastly, a brief diversion with another quote: "you're 2,059 times more likely to kill yourself than die at the hand of a terrorist." (in America) which puts today's security paranoia in the correct perspective I think.
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