House Price Crash Predictions > Archive

 

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Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
Jonathan DavisN/AApr 2007 25%UK2007-2011Tick
In our view, history and economics leads us to believe that the boom is over and there will be a gradual and cumulative fall annually from this point forward.
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2007 35%UK2007-2011Tick
Our revised forecast.
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
ABN AmroJames CarrickN/AMay 2005 10%UK2006Tick
James expects house prices to fall by 10% by the end of 2006 and also believes that this will result in a fall in construction employment of 5%.
Allied SurveyorsGrant RobertsonN/AJan 2008 5-7 % Scotland2008Tick
Amidst all the doom and gloom, Allied Surveyors are expecting Scottish house prices to increase above inflation in 2008.
American ExpressJohn CalverleyPhoto of John CalverleyNov 2004 30%UKNot statedTick
Mr Calverley, who successfully predicted the housing market crash of the early 1990s, argues in his book, Bubbles and how to survive them, that modern economies are increasingly dominated by bubbles in asset prices, be they shares or houses.
AssetzStuart LawN/ADec 2007 5%UK2008Tick
Assetz predict that house prices will increase by 5% in 2008.
BBCEvan DavisPhoto of Evan DavisDec 2007 5-10 % UK2008Tick
Evan Davis expects that house prices will continue to fall, by 5-10% over the year. He also doesn't rule out the possibility of the falls being much bigger.
BBCEvan DavisPhoto of Evan DavisDec 2006 5-10 % UK2007Tick
Evan has a knack of making the subject of economics interesting to the man on the street. He's normally pretty down to earth aswell but we're not sure about his prediction for 2007 but only time will tell!
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJul 2005 20%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005).
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AApr 2008 12%UK2008-2013Tick
Brightsale's prediction is inline with the property derivatives market.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleOct 2007 5%UK2008Tick
Capital Economics see the economy slowing in 2008 and have cut their forecast yet again.
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleOct 2007 8%UK2009Tick
A forward forecast for 2009 stating that Capital Economics expect prices to fall by a further 8%.
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJan 2005 20%UK2005-2006Tick
Roger is one of the City of London's best known economists. As well as being Managing Director of Capital Economics, he is also Economic Adviser to Deloitte, a Specialist Adviser to the House of Commons Treasury Committee and a Visiting Professor at Manchester Business School.
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleDec 2005 5%UK2005Tick
Capital Economics believes that the UK housing market is still "fundamentally overvalued", despite price growth moderating in 2005. The group argues that house prices have raced so far ahead of wages as to make purchasing property unaffordable for many would-be first time buyers.
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleOct 2007 0-3 % UK2008Tick
Capital Economics see the economy slowing in 2008 and have cut their forecast but they see no dramatic corrections.
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleOct 2007 3%UK2008-2009Tick
A forward forecast for 2009 stating that Capital Economics expect prices to fall by a further 3%.
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleMar 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
House prices in Britain could fall by 25 per cent before mid-2010, forecasters at Capital Economics have warned.
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
CEBRN/AN/AJan 2008 3%UK2008Tick
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), forecast that average property prices will drop by 2.5% during 2008.
Charcol.co.ukRay BoulgerPhoto of Ray BoulgerDec 2007 2%UK2008Tick
Mortgage broker John Charcol predicts that property transactions will fall by 15 per cent in 2008, gross mortgage lending will fall from £360bn to £320bn but house prices will only fall by 2%.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Council of Mortgage LendersMichael CooganPhoto of Michael CooganOct 2007 1%UK2008Tick
CML predicts house prices will increase by one per cent during 2008, compared to seven per cent in 2007.
Council of Mortgage LendersMichael CooganPhoto of Michael CooganDec 2006 7%UK2007Tick
The CML's members are banks, building societies and other lenders who together undertake around 98% of all residential mortgage lending in the UK.
Council of Mortgage LendersMichael CooganPhoto of Michael CooganDec 2005 2%UK2006Tick
The CML's members are banks, building societies and other lenders who together undertake around 98% of all residential mortgage lending in the UK.
Council of Mortgage LendersMichael CooganPhoto of Michael CooganDec 2006 5%UK2006Tick
A bold prediction from the Council of Mortgage Lenders for 2008.
Council of Mortgage LendersMichael CooganPhoto of Michael CooganJul 2007 2-3 % UK2008Tick
A revised prediction from the CML, down from their initial prediction of 5%.
Council of Mortgage LendersMichael CooganPhoto of Michael CooganMay 2008 7%UK2008Tick
A substantial revised forecast from CML predicting a 7% fall in UK house prices this year.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJan 2008 5%UK2008Tick
Deloitte’s quarterly economic review predicts that house prices will slump by 5% this year.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJan 2008 8%UK2009Tick
Deloitte’s quarterly economic review predicts that house prices will slump by 8% next year.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
DurlacherDavid PannellPhoto of David PannellFeb 2004 45%UK2004-2005Tick
Mr Pannell forecasts that house prices are set to fall by 30% nationally, but saves his direst predictions for cities such as Liverpool.
Dye Asset ManagementTony Dye (Dr Doom)Photo of Tony Dye (Dr Doom)Apr 2004 30%UK2004-2008Tick
Tony Dye, who correctly warned that the stock market's bull run of the late Nineties could not last, believes house prices could fall 30% over five years.
FirstRung.co.ukPaul HolmesN/ANov 2007 12%UK2008Tick
The mortgage broker, firstrung said that predictions of gentle slowdowns were off the mark.
Fool.co.ukDavid KuoN/ADec 2007 20%UK2008Tick
David Kuo believes that the average price of a house could fall by up to a fifth to £157,290 in 2008.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".
HalifaxMartin EllisN/ADec 2007 0%UK2008Tick
Halifax said its forecast of zero percent house price inflation next year factors in two interest rate cuts.
HalifaxMartin EllisN/ADec 2006 4%UK2007Tick
HBOS are slightly less optimistic than the rest of the vested interest crowd but they still maintain that the economic fundamentals underpinning housing demand will be sound.
HalifaxMartin EllisN/ADec 2006 8%London2007Tick
London is still the blue eyed boy when it comes to house price growth predictions with doubling their UK prediction for London.
HalifaxMartin EllisN/ADec 2005 3%UK2006Tick
The bank says housing market fundamentals are "sound" but price growth is likely to remain below the long-term trend in 2006.
HalifaxMartin EllisN/AJun 2008 9%UK2008Tick
Halifax had earlier predicted that the decline would be less severe.
HometrackRichard DonnellN/ADec 2007 3%Scotland2008Tick
Hometrack is forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Scotland for 2008.
HometrackRichard DonnellN/ADec 2007 3%Northern Ireland2008Tick
Hometrack is also forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Northern Ireland for 2008.
HometrackRichard DonnellN/AAug 2007 1-2 % UK2008Tick
Hometrack sees near stagnation in the UK housing market for 2008.
HometrackRichard DonnellN/ADec 2005 1%UK2006Tick
The group said the market was being starved of first-time buyers as people in their twenties and even thirties simply do not earn enough to be able to afford their own home.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherDec 2007 3%UK2008Tick
Howard Archer has revised his predictions for next year down from no growth to a 3% fall in prices.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherApr 2008 7%UK2008Tick
A revised prediction downwards by Global Insight.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherApr 2008 9%UK2009Tick
A revised prediction downwards by Global Insight.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 16%UK2008Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 16% in 2008 followed by a further drop of 15% in 2009.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Institute of Economic AffairsPhilip BoothN/AJan 2008 10%UK2008Tick
Mr Booth says that more falls are possible after 2008 but also says that this should not affect the economy greatly as long as monetary policy is conducted appropriately.
Invesco PerpetualNeil WoodfordPhoto of Neil WoodfordJan 2008 8-10 % UK2008Tick
Neil Woodford, goes further than his prediction to say that areas which have seen a concentration of speculative development and buying, such as regional metropolitan centres, could be subject to much sharper falls.
Invesco PerpetualNeil WoodfordPhoto of Neil WoodfordOct 2004 30-40 % UK2004-2008Tick
Neil Woodford, who manages £12 billion at Invesco Perpetual, is positioning his funds for a sharp decrease in property prices. His forecast for house prices is for "a 30 to 40 per cent fall over the next three to four years", a fall he describes as "a healthy correction". That would bring the average property price from £153,700 today to between £92,200 and £107,600.
Jim MellonJim MellonN/ASep 2005 50%UKNot statedTick
Financier-turned-economic pundit Jim Mellon sees no reason to be optimistic about the world's financial future and has written a book called Wake Up! Survive and Prosper in the Coming Economic Turmoil
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2008Tick
In a new forecast for the residential market, the estate agency predicts that the economy will progressively weaken over the course of the year.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2007 3%London Prime2008Tick
Knight Frank's view is that prime London will cease to lead the UK market for the first time for two years.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ASep 2007 10%London Prime2008Tick
Knight Frank predict that prices for prime residential properties will amount to about 10 percent.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2006 6%UK2007Tick
Knight Frank, the international estate agent, predicts that price growth for 2007 will be led by Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AApr 2008 3%UK2008Tick
Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 10-15 % UK2008Tick
Lloyds TSB wrote one in every four new mortgages in the six months to June but still predicts a 10-15% house price crash.
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
Lombard Street ResearchDiana ChoylevaPhoto of Diana ChoylevaOct 2007 0%UK2008Tick
Ms Choyleva believes that the recent Northern Rock crisis will be the final straw for the UK housing market.
Lombard Street ResearchDiana ChoylevaPhoto of Diana ChoylevaDec 2006 10-15 % UK2007Tick
Ms Choyleva does not believe that there is currently a bubble in the housing market but does see a bubble developing if double digit growth happens in 2007.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AAug 2007 15%UK2007-2009Tick
Market Oracle believe that the crash will be led by the buy to let sector jumping ship.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/ASep 2008 25-30 % UK2008-2013Tick
An updated prediction from Market Oracle.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesDec 2007 10%UK2008Tick
David Miles, one of the country's leading experts warns that the housing market is on the bring of a record slump.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
NationwideFionnuala EarleyPhoto of Fionnuala EarleyDec 2007 4%Scotland2008Tick
Nationwide believes Scotland will be the strongest performing region next year.
NationwideFionnuala EarleyPhoto of Fionnuala EarleyDec 2007 1%London2008Tick
Nationwide is forecasting 1 per cent growth in London house prices this year.
NationwideFionnuala EarleyPhoto of Fionnuala EarleyNov 2007 0%UK2008Tick
Britain's biggest building society predicts stagnation and says that economic tailwinds will turn into headwinds.
NationwideFionnuala EarleyPhoto of Fionnuala EarleyDec 2007 5%Northern Ireland2008Tick
Nationwide is expecting Northern Ireland to be the weakest part of the country during 2008.
NationwideFionnuala EarleyPhoto of Fionnuala EarleyDec 2005 3%UK2006Tick
The Nationwide reckons the UK economy will recover next year and as a result there will not be a collapse in house prices. Overall, the society says it is "cautiously optimistic" about prices.
NationwideFionnuala EarleyPhoto of Fionnuala EarleyMay 2007 8%UK2007Tick
Britain's biggest building society reckons that house prices will end this year up about 8%.
NationwideFionnuala EarleyPhoto of Fionnuala EarleyAug 2007 3%UK2008Tick
Fionnuala Earley of Nationwide said she expected house prices to rise by no more than wage inflation next year - the current rate of which is at a four-year low of 3.3%.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Propertyfinder.comN/AN/AJun 2005 0%UK2006Tick
Propertyfinder conduct a monthly survey of house buyer confidence. It's also worth noting that this website shows houses that are for sale on a map so you can see exactly where they are located....we think that's excellent.
propertyhotspots.netAjay AhujaN/AFeb 2004 10%UK2007Tick
Ajay has written 13 books covering the Buy-to-let subject including The Buy-to-let Bible and The Seven Pillars of Buy-to-Let Wisdom. His golden rule is location, location, location but he's still predicting a fall.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
RICSSimon RubinsohnPhoto of Simon RubinsohnSep 2007 0%UK2008Tick
RICS have revised down their forecast to a flattening of prices for 2008.
RICSSimon RubinsohnPhoto of Simon RubinsohnDec 2006 7%UK2007Tick
RICS is predicting that affordability and accessibility for first time buyers will continue to worsen in 2007 but conversely it still predicts a rise for house prices.
RICSSimon RubinsohnPhoto of Simon RubinsohnDec 2005 4%UK2006Tick
RICS said it expected prices to rise on the back of an increasing number of sales. Last year the surveyors' industry body called the market right, saying prices would rise by about 3%.
RICSSimon RubinsohnPhoto of Simon RubinsohnMay 2008 5%UK2008Tick
Another revised forecast from RICS.
Rightmove.co.ukMiles ShipsidePhoto of Miles ShipsideDec 2007 0%UK2008Tick
Miles Shipside expects a "period of stagnation" for prices in 2008, with most sellers still able to decide whether or not to drop their asking price.
Rightmove.co.ukMiles ShipsidePhoto of Miles ShipsideDec 2006 6%UK2007Tick
Whilst predicting a rise, Rightmove also go on to say that sellers will need to adjust their expectations according to local market conditions.
SavillsLucian CookPhoto of Lucian CookNov 2007 3%UK2008Tick
Savills have revised down their 2008 forecast from 5% to 3% growth.
SavillsLucian CookPhoto of Lucian CookDec 2007 1%Wales2008Tick
Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.
SavillsLucian CookPhoto of Lucian CookDec 2006 7%UK2006Tick
Strong demand and short supply are the economic arguments that Savills are using to back up their 2007 prediction.
SavillsLucian CookPhoto of Lucian CookDec 2006 15%London Prime2007Tick
Savills, the upmarket estate agents, predict double digit growth in central London on the back of overseas equity and City bonuses.
SavillsLucian CookPhoto of Lucian CookSep 2007 5%UK2008Tick
Savills are predicting only a modest rise for 2008 but go on to say that they expect house price growth to pick up again at the end of 2008.
SavillsLucian CookPhoto of Lucian CookDec 2007 4%Scotland2008Tick
Savills also thinks prices in Scotland will rise by 4 per cent in 2008.
SavillsYolande BarnesPhoto of Yolande BarnesApr 2008 6-25 % UK2008-2009Tick
A revised forecast downwards from Savills.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
The EconomistPam WoodallN/AMay 2003 20-25 % UKNot statedTick
Pam Woodall, Economics Editor at The Economist thinks the kind of irrational exuberance that gripped stock markets during the tech boom is alive and well in the housing market and there could be a severe correction around the globe.
UBSAmit Kara & Sunil KapadiaN/AJan 2008 3%UK2008Tick
UBS Economists say that the key issue for the housing market is "whether there will be a slow burn in house prices or whether there is scope for a hard landing.
UK GovernmentCaroline FlintPhoto of Caroline FlintMay 2008 5-10 % UK2008Tick
Caroline Flint, the Housing minister, inadvertently revealed that house price could fall up to 10% this year "at best".
United Trust BankRoger TidymanN/AJan 2008 0%UK2008Tick
Roger Tidyman expects modest price falls in the first half of the year with some recovery in the second half of 2008 resulting in flat overall growth for 2008.