crashmonitor
-
Posts
13,719 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by crashmonitor
-
-
17 minutes ago, CentrinoDuo said:
Well ... the property bulls will try to convince others that it will never crash and the property bears will try the opposite. Both have vested interests in the market to go up or down depending on the position.
This forum is for the bears VIs to present and discuss their views so of course, you'd expect that kind of view in the majority of the posts here. I think it's unwise to just listen from one viewpoint, it's best to gather as much information as you can from this forum and others and make your own decision.
The assumptions being made on this thread are very London/South centric as usual. Sure the OP made the right decision in Wiltshire whence house prices have increased 60% since December 2009 against 25% rpi. However, as soon as you move north in the country the situation isn't black or white but rather grey.
I can see both sides because for the last 12 years I have had an unmortgaged property and savings or just savings. Savings have done a whole lot better tbh, despite some pretty dire investing decisions by me, about 140k in interest against about 20k house price movement since 2006, really next nothing and I have chosen my houses a hell of a lot better than my savings. Difficult to say whether renting the whole time would have been better for me because of savings in rent. But I would guess once you get up to the North East, the Bears would be 100% correct, guaranteed as one member used to say.
-
44 minutes ago, TryingToWin said:
Yea, I'm sure your landlord is losing loads of cash and he's just renting to you out of the goodness of his heart.
He's not making money off of you at all.
C'mon bro, If you wake up tomorrow and its somehow 2009, you would go balls deep in housing, in fact you'd put the balls in too, why not.
Its okay to admit it man. In fact that's the first step. The power of hindsight is a beautiful thing.
Maybe if we are talking houses in central London, even so would be a close run thing with the US Equity Market. Up north, not much difference between cash and property. Would have probably stuck my money in a Northern Rock five year fixed rate savings bond tbh at 7% ( 100% guaranteed by HM Treasury by then) and carried on renting with hindsight, Equity excepted. As it is I have owned since then, present property on zoopla at 335k and probably worth 260k in 2009 and very similar to today back in 2005 ie. not moved in 13 years.
-
Another backstory to Ozzie's dealings in property is the gap between the lower and middle end of the Market and the upper end. Got to say there is some real rubbish at 250k in my area and some quite decent property once you hit 325k +. Possibly HTB etc. distorting the bottom to middle end. So taking nothing away from the OP, bought at the optimum time post Brown boom and may have benefitted from the HTB effect in trading up.
-
6 minutes ago, CentrinoDuo said:
It's unfortunate, but yes many got it wrong (of not buying) in the past 10 years.
I'm not sure how my children would be able to afford it in the not so near future. I'm hoping by the time they're in their late 20s it will change. You can only hope & dream ...
Certainly been a disaster for those living in and around London if they hadn't taken the opportunity of the 2009 dip. Not such a disaster in Wiltshire...60% hpi against 25% rpi since December 2009 and probably more or less quits once you get to northern England.
The real timing issue came between 1997-2004 during Brown's tripling which also hit the whole country not just the south.
-
22 minutes ago, OzzMosiz said:
Well I do commute 45 miles to work to get a bigger salary.
CCC, I bought a 6 bedroom house for 70K more than I sold our last house (3 bedroom) and had 50K extra in savings to put down on that. Bigger garden, more parking, more rooms, quiet locations, less neighbours but a lot of work to update.
Well if I am reading this right the current 6 bed property cost circa 339k (169k +100k+ 70k), doesn't sound a lot for Wiltshire. 2009 was close to the bottom of the Market for sure.
-
2 hours ago, Si1 said:
Note Cherie is a lawyer and Tony was a lawyer. Just sayin'.
I think it stands to reason that helping ones children onto the " housing ladder" and acquiring BTL portfolios is one of the principal reasons we have high house prices that no longer make sense with reference to wages.
It's no longer exclusive to the rich and politicians but seems like it is a mainstream aspiration as in this story. Governments set the incentives and people follow, the Tories have continued to favour property.
-
22 hours ago, oatbake said:
Why didn't they let their daughter pay her own legal bills? Why did they give her the 90k for the settlement instead of asking her to take a mortgage out on her 200k house (which by the sound of it she'd blatantly cheated others out of).
Presumably she couldn't get a mortgage and the desperation of the family to keep the property within the family whether the daughter really needed it or not. Really a story about property hoarding and the parents losing their heads over the magic of property rather than settling for the daughter having a reduced cash settlement once the house was sold. I guess they were right considering where property in Slough has gone since 2009. Modern day Blairite socialism isn't it, family property holdings and looking after you and yours at the expense of everybody else. And what a mess we are in because of it.
-
1 hour ago, Si1 said:
Yes indeed. Looks like bomad was used as legal funding to help the daughter take an inheritance of 200k and stop other parts of the family taking any. Parents as bad as the daughter there I'd say. Lawyers did well.
Indeed 90k to stop other claims on 200k inheritance....45% of legacy gone. I guess Lucy will have made that back since 2009 on the Slough house. Well she didn' t have to make it up it came from parents.
-
1 hour ago, lombardo said:
Buy crypto instead. Cash out in two years with a bigger deposit.
Bit of a gamble. There should be an alternative place to put ones money such as a normalised savings account at circa 5% ( giving a return over inflation) or more confidence in the UK Equity Market. Not much chance of that when, even on here, every reversal is met with glee and a bubble is called everytime it has the temerity to get 10 % above the level it set at the end of the last century. Even though Equity gains are often at the expense of property busts and vice versa as the money doesn't disappear it migrates. 90s property to Equity...noughties Equity to property etc.
No doubt which way Government and CBs are trying to steer the money though. Adarmo nailed it...no interest on his deposit.
-
1 hour ago, micawber said:
But now we know what type of systems LBG are running!
It was using the Lloyds system until the switch over without issue, it was paying a few hundred million a year for the privilege I believe. Problems started after it ditched Lloyds. A rushed job on a wing and a prayer to get shut of Lloyds fees.
-
TSB was desperate to break its ties and costs with Lloyds, so desperate in fact it wasn't really ready and behaved like a precocious kid that thought it was. Absolute shocking incompetence. For God's sake call back the cavalry at least for a bit.
-
1 hour ago, maffo in oxford said:
No no no, not Kier. A bit smaller than them but the company does have a few regional offices dotted about. Certainly not big enough to be listed on the stock exchange like Kier or Carillion.
Your query puzzles me too, I doubt it would cost much to put them right really. Definitely not much if they were sealed up in a decent manner.
PS
I've found another job already, so it looks like I'm leaving. I think things are still busy on the whole in construction, lots of skill shortages in the trades and just the odd few companies having a re-jiggle depending on who is financing projects and the what the profit/debt ratio is.
Well, apart from the obvious cliff hangers like Capita, the trade both in residential and commercial is pretty strong at the moment.Thanks for your reply, reminiscent of abandoned new builds in Ireland but rarely does a developer abandon houses that have been almost finished over here. Good look with new job too.
-
On 4/17/2018 at 10:34 PM, maffo in oxford said:
A mix, residential and commercial refurbishments mainly. One arm of the company does new build, so that's two refurb's and one new build project canned afaik
Not Kier is it. Would love to know why Kier sees it as cheaper to shelve a project in 2009 with thirteen houses almost complete and then just board them all up for ten years. Surely they could just have released those 13 and got a bit of money back.
2018 and still waiting for the market to recover from the crash in East Lindsey, Lincolnshire (Sutton on Sea).......
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-42915902
Guess it shows you can't just build houses on farmland where nobody wants to live.
-
11 hours ago, spyguy said:
Banks finance are at tge pointy end of digitisation - numbers are pure digital info.
Manna from heaven for banks, they make little from mortgages but can sit on their backsides and collect billions in acquiring charges off debit and credit card transactions.
-
We're on a dual fuel fixed til August 19, currently paying £38 per month ( fixed in August 17). Just logged into our account and the cheapest fixed switch is now £52 per month.
On another matter we had our old imperial gas meter changed to metric last week. Didn't realise the old meter was imperial and couldn't understand why it was moving three times faster. British Gas could have said, until I did research I thought we had a dud. I guess only HPC skinflints check meters especially new ones, guess I should have taken more notice of the imperial conversion divisible by 2.83 on the ebills too. Btw if you suspect a dud meter it costs £300 to get tested at your expense.
-
3 hours ago, Errol said:
This is a dead man walking. Just a matter of time. Probably better for them to voluntarily shut up shop rather than just struggle on.
Looks like it; the share price of 22p has just eclipsed the 5th December 2008 low of 23p, that was the winter 'Woollies' went under along with the entire British economy.
Profits were just 18 million and may get worse. They carry 1.3 billion in debt.
-
2 hours ago, Slimline said:
I wouldn’t be surprised to see FTSE at 10K when inflation really takes hold.
I think the political situation is too precarious to get close in the near term, if it had followed European bourses and the DOW up we would be there already. Just the spectre of McDonnell is worth a 25% discount with his requisitioning and taxation plans.
Probably should give up now and buy index linker T bonds, but that would be no fun.
-
I thought the headline might be something to do with Osbo wrecking the Standard like he did with the UK economy, at least in terms of trying to prop up Brown's lunacy.
-
Ftse 100 now trading in equilibrium ,dead centre, of its annual trading range of 6888 to 7779. That's one hell of a rapid bounce off the 26th March nadir.
I did warn the doomsters this might happen, always seems to spring to life at the start of the new ISA season. I did say I wasn't 100% confident because if it was that easy and we got the April/ May bounce snd Santa rallies every year we may as well all give up work and trade the biannual lift.
Ftse still chronically lagging world indicies with the dual threat of Jezza and Brexit looming on the horizon. Recently read an article that put the crap performamce of the Ftse 100..70% Jezza fear/ 30% Brexit. While the rest of the world's indicies have risen 10 to 15% since June 2017 we are down so that makes sense. Post general election was when the FTSE was really shunned.
-
2 hours ago, BuyToLeech said:
-
59 minutes ago, Funn3r said:
Damn right the more we normalise the more confidence people will have! Let's say additional 3% per month in May, June, and July. Just in time for confident customers to rush out and buy barbecues and sun loungers for the large gardens in their new builds.
Would be nice, but in reality probably 0.25% making little difference to the ongoing theft on my cash savings. Meanwhile if they don't do the 0.25% after all the crying wolf, Bank shares will fall sharply, the pound will tank. They need to make a start in May and the Markets will take it as a sign of panic if they don't. The DOW crashed in 2016 when Yellen prepared the way and then didn't raise.
-
21 hours ago, Kosmin said:
Markets are down something like 8-10% from the highs of a few months ago. They were mostly rising due to good news (tax cuts and corporate earnings) and then fell due to bad news (political worries and likelihood of faster interest rate increases).
I don't think the UK Markets would be too dismayed by a couple of rate rises this year. They certainly wont like no rate rises at all and the MPC reigning back on guidance especially financials who are struggling on tight spreads.
-
It's been a bad start to the year for the rural tourist industry as per OP. Worst Easter for several years, weather has been a big factor re. rain/ snow and lack of sun. But we might be about to play catch up on that front.
-
Careful Guardian you might alienate your readers.....BTL is the investment of choice amongst retired school teachers and the ethnic minorities. no self respecting Socialist would be caught dead wealth extracting in the Equity market.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/jul/27/buy-to-let-pension-savings-property-amateur-investors
Bought!
in House prices and the economy
Posted · Edited by crashmonitor
Example here of a house that has gone up just 25% in 15 years, a nominal profit but a huge inflation adjusted loss.........
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-53552265.html
No 60 here https://www.zoopla.co.uk/house-prices/nottingham/netherfield/kappler-close/?pn=2
A lot of exaggeration on here as to the extent of HPI in the last 15 years, suits both the bulls and bears for different reasons, but a million miles from the truth north of Nottingham.
Yep there was a boom up here that ended about 2004, we have been limping on under Government props for the last 14 years. Big difference between Brown's tripling of prices (1997-2004) from the lunatic asylum and 25% in the last 15 years as above or about one percent per annum,