Flat Bear
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Posts posted by Flat Bear
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7 hours ago, scottbeard said:
I think I said "+0.25, but +0.50 is possible" to the last poll.
Now i'm the other way round:
I think +0.50, but +0.25 is possible.
Interesting
I still think it is likely to be 0.25% (doing the minimum like always) BUT there has been a lot of hawkish retoric from the government and the BOE so your latest prediction could well be right.
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3 hours ago, Up the spout said:
Jeremy Hunt is to haul Britain’s lenders into the Treasury to demand they do more to help families struggling with the mortgage rate crisis. The chancellor said he wanted to hear proposals from the banks to help families in mortgage arrears and what additional “flexibilities” they could offer. He again ruled out a government intervention to help people moving onto much higher fixed rate mortgages arguing that any support would fuel inflation.
Martin Lewis, the financial journalist, has warned that banks were still not doing enough to support customers who were struggling with their repayments. He called on Hunt and financial regulators to force banks to make it easier for homeowners to take a repayment holiday or switch to an interest only loan — without being penalised. He also called for lenders to look at “minimising” the impact of such a move on people’s credit scores which at present “scares them” against taking action. Lewis, the founder of MoneySavingExpert.com said he had previously raised these issues with Hunt and lenders at a previous meeting but no action had been taken.
He said that Hunt should put pressure on the banks to either reduce mortgage rates or increase saving rates, warning that they were increasing their profits at the expense of customers. “They’re putting mortgages up and they’re not putting savings up by as much, so they make more money,” he told ITV. “And what we really need is soft or hard political pressure right now to say to them either you make things better for mortgage holders or you make them better for savers, or best, you make them better for both.”
Hunt told the Commons he wanted to make sure the government, banks and regulators were doing “everything possible to help families paying higher mortgage rates in ways that do not themselves feed inflation”. He said: “Later this week I’ll be meeting the principal mortgage lenders to ask what help they can give to people struggling to pay the more expensive mortgages and what flexibilities might be possible for families in arrears.”
Lewis described the mortgage crisis as a “time bomb” that had now exploded saying he had raised concerns about the lack of action to help families months ago. He said: “Many of the things I suggested they argued they were already doing, like you could change your term, you could take a payment holiday, you could reduce the amount you pay temporarily, you could switch to interest-only. But the big problem for me is they haven’t made that easy. And what I was suggesting is, first of all those things need to be made reversible, so you know that if you can do it temporarily you can go back without a problem. That isn’t the situation.
“And second, they need to look at minimising the impact on people’s credit scores, because that puts people off taking a form of action, it scares them that they’re going to be disenfranchising themselves from other forms of borrowing for six years, but again, that hasn’t happened. So the ultimate result of that mortgage summit was a tiny bit more communication to borrowers.”
Lewis added: “It’s about giving people flexible tools and this is really important, because ultimately there is very little that we can do to protect people. If interest rates are going to be high over three or four years, people are going to have to readjust their finances. There is nothing else we can look at, they’re going to have to readjust their finances. And that’s going to be a nightmare.”
Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, described the present issues as the “Tory mortgage penalty”, saying: “While the government squabbles over parties and peerages, mortgage products are being withdrawn and replaced by mortgages with much higher interest rates. This is a consequence of the conservative mini-budget last year, and 13 years of economic failure with inflation higher here than in similar countries, average mortgage payments will be going up by a crippling £2,900 this year.”
It is just a PR exersize.Simple as that.
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11 hours ago, tbeckbeck said:
Quick intro about myself: 22 year old guy. I know zero about the housing market but I've recently took an interest. At somepoint I want to be moving out so I'm just trying to learn how everything works. I've been reading a lot of articles online. Tonnes of good info, but I've not found them very clear. I then randomly found this forum and I'm hoping I can get some answers here.
So the first thing I've noticed when reading about House prices is there are two camps. One camp thinks house prices are high due to a lack of supply. They argue that we don't have enough housing for the population increase, immigration etc. The other camp thinks it's not a supply issue, they sort of imply there is enough houses and that high house prices are caused by numerous other things. Normally saying it's a bubble.
For a novice like myself, the not enough supply theory makes sense. So what evidence is there that shows it wrong?? I'm talking hard evidence that clearly debunks it all. Any info is appreciated, feel free to add links I'm happy to do some reading. Cheers
What is the evidence that debunks the "not enough supply" theory for why house prices are so high??
There is no evidence. There is an acute shortage of housing in the UK, in England and the SE especially which puts upward pressure on prices, obviously.
Sorry I havn't read through the thread and someone could well have mentioned this.
There is a difference between demand for housing and need for housing and it is not that straight forward.
Simply demand is the need plus the ability to afford at the going price. The fact that there is a large proportion of housing bought for "social" housing and highly leveraged social landlords distort things.
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On 15/06/2023 at 08:07, fellow said:
What's going to happen to house prices? Two property experts go head to head... and one predicts a 35% FALL by 2025
Interesting to see two vested interests go "head to head"? Neither of them could be called "experts" in any shape or form.
Both made some valid points and both agree on the reason for the falls so far and to come. I suppose it is obvious and can not be denied, but neither quantified this core reason and the relationship to the falls which is what it is all about.
DIX believes we will see 20% real falls by the end of 2023 which will mean only a relatively small nominal fall. He believes the market will rebound quickly and within a few years the market will be back to "normal" or what he perceives as normal. He believes the very high demand (he actually means need) will prevent any collapse and he has a very good point here. DIX also believes there will be strong government support in 2024 (election). DIX gets very confused. He thinks it is all about "inflation" where again he means the base rate or more accurately the mortgage rate. Inflation may influence decisions on the base rate but there are other factors at play. DIX does not mention the importance of liquidity and thus mortgage availability. He has decided that it won't be that bad and has put some reasons together to defend his position. Very much like the BOE.
LAMDIN believes we will see "nominal" falls of 35% by 2025. He sees the steepest falls at the end of 2023 with falls slowing in 2025 and then on a plateau for the next few years. He mentions prices falling by 1% a month which is quite nostalgic as I remember them falling at this rate during the last two crashes/adjustments. LAMDIN mentions the last 14 years of ultra low rates and that he believes we will see a base rate of 6% by the end of this year as the main reason for his prediction.
So who has the best argument and thus more likely to have the most accurate prediction?
Neither actually say what they think interest rates will be over the coming years. The best they come up with is LAMDIN saying 6% by the end of this year and DIX saying they will fall back down in 2024. Neither make any comments about the availability of mortgage finance (QT) going forward. AND this is what it is all about.
LAMDIN could very well be correct. BUT if interest rates reach 6% max and QT is put off then he can not be right.
LAMDIN does understand that this will last a very long time and sort of understands the economic cycle but the UK housing market is directly affected by the UK economy, cost of borrowing and availability.
MY OUTLOOK
I believe we will see the base rate at 6% at the end of the year, January at the latest. I also believe we will see a base rate of 12% to 14% within the next 4 years. I also believe we will start to see the money supply start to shrink over this period. The UK is already in a slowdown and this will continue for several years. All this because of rampant inflation which the BOE as well as many other central banks are underestimating.
Make no mistake, we still have very low interest rates historically and there is still a lot of spare cash available for secure lending and both these things will take time to change. There are still plenty of people willing to buy now that prices have come down a few percent. We will not see any real fall in prices until the base rate gets to 6% although I still believe we will see nominal falls in house prices circa 5% by the end of this year.
My overall prediction for total falls in nominal house prices is still less than LAMDIN and that is with my senario of double digit base rate and mortgage rates similar to the 1980s/90s. I think we will see real price falls of around 50% with nominal falls of 20% to 25% by 2026/27 which is a lot less than LAMDIN'S prediction. The ratio of real and nominal falls down to inflation over the next few years.
I think my prediction could well be the same as what the BOE already know and if it does happen they will have been semi successful in inflating away most of the debts.
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2 hours ago, Stewy said:
Bloodbath - That is why rates will be coming down extremely quickly.
1 hour ago, Stewy said:Three months max IMO - the VIs are already attempting to coalesce around a narrative.
WOW
How big is your mortgage? Must be humongous.
It won't help worrying about it, try and chill out.
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2 hours ago, bomberbrown said:
FWIW, I don’t think the BoE will hold next week, despite the FED decision. BoE are constantly playing catch up and they know it. I actually think they could do a 0.5% increase next week and that would definitely set the cat amongst the pigeons! Bring it on!!
Yes I have the same sentiment. With all the recent retoric from the government and the BOE it seems they are preparing for a 0.5% raise, which would be a slight surprise to me as i had thought we would only see a 0.25% this time followed by another 0.25% next meeting and then a 0.5% in September.
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52 minutes ago, Grayphil said:
I nearly posted the exact same thing, a new Rollover with better English.
Init
No, I think you are wrong and a distinctive difference in style and understanding of our culture and inteligence. Rollover kept it very tight commentating using quotes from various sources to try and make some sort of point. Although all were very weak arguments he would just gaslight those that picked him up on it. But he sort of understood he was up against it.
This night tripper is a lot more niave and simply underestimates this forum. I would suggest he has had little experience in trolling in the west. He makes it plain within just a post or two he is Russian and without too much digging he works for the pro Putin regime something rollover gave us doubts for at least for a few months.
Serious question to those non Russian trolls. I know there are a few of you. Has your opinion of Russians in general changed over the last 12 months or so?
I had thought of Russians in the past as strong, decisive, inteligent, stoic, deep thinkers who were nobodies fool. How totally wrong I was. Easily duped drunken louts with no moral backbone with extremely low inteligence. I don't think I have changed my opinion on an entire country ever before.
Before anyone makes the comments. I do know that Russia is made up of many different people with totally different views and ideas. To the east the peoples are more closely akin to the Chinese and other various other sections identify with many other countries and have totally different aspirations.
Suppose I am talking about the contolling elite, the Moscovites or whatever they are called. How many of them are there?
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An interesting take on the situation from a former SAS officer.
Ukraine’s counter-offensive is going just fine – but this won’t end on the battlefield
Never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake
TIM COLLINS12 June 2023 • 3:44pm
Ukrainian artillery in action CREDIT: Kai Pfaffenbach/Reuters
The Ukrainian offensive will be a process and not a breakthrough. It will last well into 2024 and will include a diplomatic and sanctions offensive, as well as military actions and support including the looming rollout of F-16s. As is often the case, the expectation of a D-Day style battle royal has been pushed by the media in many countries despite the strategic ambiguity of the Ukrainian president Zelensky and his staff. This was never going to be the case.
The old Napoleonic adage that “you should never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake” holds good in the scenario where an overextended Russian military deals with the complications of internal strife hampered by logistical shortcomings with corruption and incompetence at their roots, whilst facing multiple probes across the front.
This war was never going to end in the defeat of Russia on the battlefield; it will end when the Russian people, and/or possibly Russian generals, move to topple the tyrant Putin and his rotten system. Indeed, as history has shown, defeat only strengthens Russian resolve. Humiliation destroys it. We should remember that it was the endless mincer of the Russian front that brought about the fall of the Tsar: it was the economic collapse of the Soviet Bloc that ended the Cold War.
The Russians – and everyone else – have been expecting this offensive since for months. The steady supply of Western equipment including modern tanks, artillery and long-range precision strike weapons have caused a stir and heightened expectation of a sudden, game-changing event. That is what many hoped for – including the Russian leadership. Their calculation has been that if they can defeat the offensive in a quick series of reverses, this can be presented to Russia as a sort of victory in exchange for the resolve to carry on.
What Russia cannot withstand, however (and Putin knows it) is a war of attrition, the steady wearing down of their blood and treasure in a prolonged struggle. Time and circumstances are not at all on the Kremlin’s side.
Meanwhile on the battlefield the Ukrainian military must find weak spots on the complex and well prepared Russian defensive wall – 19 miles deep in some places. There will be casualties on both sides. Already Western-made Leopard tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles have been destroyed by mines and artillery. That is to be expected.
But the side that can recover vehicles from the battlefield, repair them and redeploy them quickly will defeat the logistically incompetent force for whom every loss is permanent. The side that can treat its wounded quickly and well, will benefit from the morale factor over the side whose soldiers fear that every day will be their last. Above all the side that can carry this on well into autumn and winter with growing strength and belief will emerge triumphant.
The soldiers of Russia, in addition to their normal combat load, carry an additional burden – their leadership. Where a Napoleon or a Von Manstein would pull rapidly back to draw the enemy forward and then strike like a fencer when they are off balance and logistically stretched, a Hitler or a Putin will fight for every inch of territory. The Russians will never be able to rebuild their strength for a counteroffensive of their own.
The fighting in the coming days and weeks will not be the end. But it may be the beginning of the end.
Colonel Tim Collins is a former British Army officer who served with the SAS and as commander of the Royal Irish during the invasion of Iraq in 2003, when his before-battle speech to his soldiers made headlines around the world
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8 minutes ago, Night Tripper said:
Sorry I totally draw the line at you comparing Putin to Mugabe or Russia to Zimbabwe
absolute nonsense - Putin is legitimately popular on his own terms. Approval rating of 80% which is something the likes of Biden, Sunak, Macron could only dream of
You can draw as many lines as you like but Putin IS Mugabe on steriods. Mugabe had a 106% approval rating well above Putins under 100% made up rating. Can't even make up an approval rating over 100% pathetic.
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5 minutes ago, Night Tripper said:
The fact that he’s stayed in power so long and is still going strong should really make you question your own viewpoint. Obviously into won’t.
Oh well, Britannia rules the waves etc
Actually, you make a very good point.
How did such a person get to this position and stay in power for so long? There will be so many people trying to analysis this for years to come. It was the same with Hitler. How did he get to power and persuade so many to follow him for so long? There are so many similarities.
Who was the worse, Putin or Hitler? That is a difficult one.
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1 minute ago, Night Tripper said:
The fact that he’s stayed in power so long and is still going strong should really make you question your own viewpoint. Obviously into won’t.
Oh well, Britannia rules the waves etc
I'm sure there will be a number of poster taking apart every point on the list. He is just a crazy madman. He must have realized this would get through to the west? although I would suggest it was for his domestic audience who are too frightened or too thick or both to comment.
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4 minutes ago, Night Tripper said:
Here’s the link to the article in question which corresponds to the comments I posted above
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27515/4777992/
Very funny comrade.
If this really does say what you outlined then Putin is an imbecile. No one can now take him seriously ever again.
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1 minute ago, Night Tripper said:
Wtf it was a quote from putin to a gathering today (or maybe yesterday)
if you must know I got it from a telegram channel. Is anything that he said there shocking ?
Just give me the source and link.
Of course it is very shocking. We have heard reports that Putin has no idea what is going on as his "advisors" are too frightened to give any information that Putin would not like (but this was from possible western media that could have a bias) but this has gone into fairytale land and they are just telling him ridiculous stuff and would prove previous reports were spot on. Is Putin an imbecile? How did he stay in power so long without knowing what was going on?
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1 minute ago, Night Tripper said:
Erm the source is the president of Russia. I would assume he has relevant info to hand?
Perhaps you’d prefer to read the ISW instead?
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/06/12/a-case-study-in-american-propaganda/
Don't be bl##dy st#pid.
The artical does not make any reference to the post you made.
You say it was made by the "president of Russia" ? That is Putin (unless he has been deposed yet)
I want to know where you got the information in your post as it is extremely crazy stuff and so obviously incorrect. Please give a source.
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3 minutes ago, Night Tripper said:
The counter offensive continues to be an embarrassment to Ukraine.
⚡🇷🇺The main points from the meeting of Vladimir Putin with the military correspondents and bloggers:
✅ The Armed Forces of Ukraine have been conducting a large-scale offensive since June, 4th, and it is still ongoing.
✅ The Armed Forces of Ukraine did not achieve any success in any of the directions. They have almost 50/50 irretrievable losses. The loss ratio is 1/10 in our favor;
✅During the offensive, Ukraine lost over 160 tanks and over 360 armored vehicles. Russia lost 54 tanks but some can be restored;
✅ The AFU purposefully hit the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station with HIMARS missiles before its destruction, and the last explosion could have been carried out with a pre-planted bomb;✅ The problem with UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of the Russian Federation will be resolved;
✅ There is no need to introduce martial law on the whole territory of Russia or for additional mobilization at this point;
✅The Russian Federation still intends to maintain good relations with all its neighbors after the collapse of the USSR. We believed that we were “part of the club” for the West, but the Anglo-Saxons took the path of distabilization of the Russian Federation;
✅ The Russian Federation had nothing to do with the events of 2014 in the Donbass, then we were forced to stand up for these people. The goals of the SMO do not change, they are of a fundamental nature for Russia;
✅The defense industry of Ukraine "does not produce a thing": the ammunition, the equipment are brought in from the outside, and won't last that long. The question of demilitarization is a practical one for us.
Great post and very funny indeed.
Do we know if this was exactly what was said? What was the source?
If we can confirm this we can be sure that Putin has lost the plot entirely. It is not likely that this is anywhere near a true transcript as it is not really possible that Putin and his advisors are anywhere near this stupid no matter how scared they are of him.
If it's just a prank it is still sort of funny as some idiot Putin ar#e lic#er probably thought this could be good PR.
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6 hours ago, pig said:
Thats what I was trying to understand up thread.
Three interacting lines of defence + masses of fixed defences (mines concrete etc). If the Russians rely on the fixed defences then Ukrainians will suffer high casualties punching through (if thats where they are going through), but when they are through and relatively mobile again then the artillery is useless
I think we need to take a step back and put our faith in Ukraine and NATO. Question is, do you have faith in the Ukrainians and the intelligence and tactics NATO is passing on?
I would suggest it is not as it all first appears. There will be various tactics in play depending on terrain, locations, and expected defence capabilities. Attacks will be at angles and a breakthrough of a first line could well see pincer type movements across the front line of the Russian defence. There is complete silence from the Ukrainian side and it seems most reports are from Russian sources. Can we trust these Russian sources? Of course we can't.
It would not suprise anyone to hear at any time that Ukraine had made a breakthrough and are through to the sea of Azov. It is just a matter of time.
We need to wait and see I suppose and don't listen to the Russian trolls who are making ALL the noise.
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22 minutes ago, PrincessNutNut said:
That's not my job here. You've pasted a variation of the Fisher equation in a post earlier like it was an absolute, stating that a particular outcome can be demonstrated.
I've asked for the demonstration. You still haven't delivered.
Yes, and as I've tried to make clear in simple terms - if there wasn't a large increase in money supply preceding the dip you'd have a point.
Macro is not running a country. It's the national (&global) economy. The national economy consists of the participants in it.
No more responses to the obvious nonsense & attempts to insult.Must say I have re-read all your posts on this thread and I agree with all the points and comments you make (not often happens). Do you feel at times you are a school teacher trying to teach the unteachable? It seems similar to arguing with flat earthists.
4 hours ago, Wurzel Of Highbridge said:This thread got me thinking that actually:
Inflation = Deflation of the value of money.
So inflation is really deflation and deflation is really inflation of the value of money. 😀
This is an excellent way to look at it and is correct. What is the "value" of a unit of currency, a pound in our case. It is measured by how much it can purchase. Measures used are very blunt, such as the CPI, which only includes items the government think fit. For example house prices do not have any influence at all, which is crazy when you think about it.
It is very difficult to put a "value" on money as I have tried to do on a number of threads over the last 20 years or so. In our society the best way to measure the value of money is by looking at how much an average persons time is worth, ie how much they get paid for a unit of work. Remember some peoples time is worth a lot more than others. This is the only real way I think you can put a "value" on a unit of currency. Time is all we have as individuals.
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The end of Putin’s empire could be sudden
History tells us that foreign humiliation can quickly rob dictators of control. Chaos could soon result
ROBERT TOMBS11 June 2023 • 7:00pm
Experts did not predict the fall of the Soviet empire. Nor did its rulers. Millions of people brought it down by breaking through closed borders and defying what had previously seemed the invincible forces of the state. With hindsight it seems inevitable. But it was unimaginable for most people at the time – until it actually happened.
This seems the almost invariable pattern, whether in the fall of far-flung empires or in revolutions within single states. No one expected a French Revolution that would bring Louis XVI to the guillotine. No one expected an upper-class rebellion in Palermo in 1848 to turn the whole of Europe upside down. Who thought the suicide of a street trader in Tunisia in 2010 could do the same to the Arab world? The German empire collapsed in 1918 only months after it had nearly won the First World War. Despite emerging victorious from the Second World War, the French and British empires began unravelling just as Paris and London were planning new colonial partnerships.
During the 1970s, when revolutions seemed on the cards – but weren’t – social scientists tried predictive models. Perhaps if one could identify the tipping point in popular discontent, or look for tell-tale signs of “disappointed expectations”, one could anticipate or prevent political collapse.
That never truly worked. Lenin, who knew a bit about such matters, gave a clue: “it is not enough for the lower classes to refuse to live in the old way; it is necessary also that the upper classes should be unable to live in the old way”. States – even medieval and early modern states such as Louis XVI’s France – can usually defeat internal dissent. Stone throwing mobs stood little chance against soldiers firing grapeshot, and even less against tear gas, water cannon and tanks.
So for states and empires to fail, it usually needs an external force that not only undermines their prestige and ability to intimidate, but weakens their repressive capacity. In most cases, this is military failure. Sometimes the effect is clear and direct, as when the Russian and German empires were brought down in 1917 and 1918 by their own soldiers refusing to fight and abandoning their rulers.
Sometimes it is more indirect, as when the British realised that, after an exhausting war, they could no longer govern a huge, diverse, and decreasingly acquiescent empire. The Viceroy of India, Lord Wavell, concluded in 1946 that “We have no longer the resources, nor I think the necessary prestige and confidence in ourselves”. The French took longer to reach that conclusion, and then it was the unwillingness of conscript soldiers and their families to fight a war in Algeria in the early 1960s that ended visions of a permanent French imperial “community”.
In all these cases it was not complete defeat or the physical destruction of armed forces that was decisive, but the perception that the struggle was not winnable or not for long. Soldiers and policemen will not willingly risk their lives, or their future careers, for a lost cause and a discredited regime. There comes a moment, often very sudden, when the Emperor’s nakedness becomes apparent, and the game changes. In Lenin’s phrase, the rulers “are unable” to carry on as before.
Russia seems evidently on that path: but when might the moment of truth come? It has gone through this before. In 1917, the mighty empire was fatally weakened by Germany, and in 1989, by the rigours of the Cold War. Twice it died, but soon resurrected in another form, under another emperor, even if large chunks (the Baltic states, the Central Asian colonies, the Eastern European dependencies) were missing. And now? Will Putin’s attempt to reconquer part of the empire precipitate its final demise?
China is there to pick up Asian possessions conquered in the 19th century, and Japan, Turkey and others also have claims. The Russian people’s best chance of a brighter future would be as a post-imperial democratic nation-state, rejecting the imperial ambitions of Putin and his like.
A fallen empire nevertheless leaves a long shadow. Part may be positive, as in the case of the Roman empire (and we might like to think, the British): language, culture, laws, infrastructure and institutions. But it also inevitably leaves chaos, violence and struggles for power. There is no painless outcome.
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1 hour ago, Casual-observer said:
Farcical, where is this breaking point evidence?
The economics will destroy Russia maybe before the Ukrainians have time to finish throwing the Russians out of their country.
Putins network of power has been eroding for some time with his paranoia and mistrust many of his network of "Oligarchs" he has fallen out with and they have found themselves falling out of 6th storey apartments or similar and those more powerful are biding their time and waiting such as Gazprom and Wagner who we might find start to become more vocal and emboldened as they vie for a share of power. Watch this space.
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15 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:
Farcical, where is this breaking point evidence?
Don't even bother with your sh#t
You are fully aware of the situation unless you do not read or listen to anything.
"Farcical". You are farcical just look at the situation.
I will upload a number of articals for your perusal and education.
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On 30/05/2023 at 16:50, scottbeard said:
I'm not sure, because as you say the faster they raise rates the quicker they will have an effect.
I had been thinking of a peak at 5-6% i.e. just "back to normal" but if inflation does prove sticky as it now seems to be doing 7-8% is certainly possible.
I'm honestly not clear enough on how the impact beyond that would play out, but it's clear that the higher you get the more people and businesses it would drive into insolvency, so by the time we get to 8% Base Rates my expectation would be that we have wiped out enough of the economy to be in a major recession, with inflation falling dramatically both due to economic inactivity and the strength of the £ making imports cheaper.
The majority of the poll believe you are correct that we will see a peak in the base rate of 6% or less. The BOE and other commentators concur. We should see the rate rise to just 4.75% this week if forecasts are correct.
Only a third believe I am correct and we will see rate of at least 6%. I still believe we will see a 6% base rate at the end of this year, January at the very latest and then several more raises over the following 18 months. I have gone through why I think this will happen and I have not seen anything that will change this projection.
Again, it will be interesting to see what actually happens.
Over time I have noticed you tend to agree with the established view of the "experts" at the particular time. Be careful of "expert" advice and group think. I realize this is what most people rely on and is the default position.
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On 06/03/2023 at 16:30, nightowl said:
How much speculation of either Putin's poor health or an internal coup will see him toppled has there been over that last year? Last time I noticed he was still there and alive, so sounds like wishful thinking and morale boosting for the west to me too, maybe to convince people this war will be over soon so stay with it.
He still is there or sort of is still there. He is reverting to more and more desperate measures and we are in very dangerous times.
3 months on from your post and the pressure on the Putin regime has increased to near breaking point.
There are more and more factions getting the courage to speak out against him and they are finding little or no recourse which will only enbolden all oppostions.
IF, when?, Putin is deposed I do not think there can be a smooth take over and Russia would likely fall into chaos. Suddenly we could see the Russian invasion go into reverse as power struggles and anarchy in the country takes hold. This would be a very dangerous time akin to the fall of the Soviet Union.
Effective mortgage rates are going to go HIGHER than in the 1970s and 1980s
in House prices and the economy
Posted
Mortgage rates are not high enough for a "crash".......yet.
There is a great need for housing and there are a lot of people wishing and dreaming for their own home.
House prices are at maximum affordability and are over priced in any way you want to look at it.
Banks and other mortgage lenders have been extremely careful this time around because the last "crash" saw many repossesions and many in negative equity. 105% mortgages are now frowned apon wheras they were all the rage just a few years ago.
There are many guide lines now and mortgages are "stress tested" to 8% to 9% which we have some way to reaching.
At 6% base rate we should see mortgage rates of 7.5% to 9% which will be in the range for that smaller group of recent purchasers who stretched themselves to the limit. This will see the first batch of distressed sales.
When (not if) base rates are forced up to 8.5% we will see typical mortgage rates of 9% to 13% which will see a sizeable number of distressed sales. This is when we will see "the crash" and the real fear begins.
At the end of the day the banks will not be too worried about those higher Value to loan properties because it is extremely unlikely they will lose any money on any default. They will be concerned about low value to loan mortgages on their books and we could see them panicking about these very soon.
I bought a repossession back in 1986 and they were very common back then. We could see them even more common in a year or two.