Flat Bear
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Posts posted by Flat Bear
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On 22/06/2023 at 19:06, Social Justice League said:
IR's at 10% by mid 2024.
I would not bet against your prediction. This is well within the realms of probability.
I think it is very likely we will see circa 10% base rate by the end of 2024
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On 07/06/2023 at 22:09, Flat Bear said:
Well we are a few months on and things are moving at a pace.
That aside, we have more information about the situation in Russia itself and the beginnings of civil wars and desent throughout the whole of Russia.
So again the question what will become of the Russia we see today?
Looking at the regions to the west together with Ukraine, it could well be we will see many states being created out of the turmoil. Crimea will become a seperate state, if the people have anything to say about it, Belarus will move to the west politically once Russian influence has gone, Anew state around the Donetsk region could well be considered as well as a new state in the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgarod regions of Russia. What will these new states look like? Where will their allegiances lie? Will other parts of Russia and the surround follow?
It was never a real possibility that Ukraine itself could "beat" Russia but this conflict could well be the reason that Russia breaks apart. The real reason will be from within as it has been with the demise of every powerful nation. The west won't help as the sanctions cripple the country. Maybe this was the wests plan all along?
On 12/06/2023 at 13:47, Flat Bear said:He still is there or sort of is still there. He is reverting to more and more desperate measures and we are in very dangerous times.
3 months on from your post and the pressure on the Putin regime has increased to near breaking point.
There are more and more factions getting the courage to speak out against him and they are finding little or no recourse which will only enbolden all oppostions.
IF, when?, Putin is deposed I do not think there can be a smooth take over and Russia would likely fall into chaos. Suddenly we could see the Russian invasion go into reverse as power struggles and anarchy in the country takes hold. This would be a very dangerous time akin to the fall of the Soviet Union.
When I started this thread it made the assumption that Russia would collapse in many ways (the most likely outcome?) and I asked what would be the outcome and how would it affect us and the world.
Ironically Prigozhin could be the one that actually "saves" the Russia we see today.
Questions.
Why now to make a move? Because Russia is weakening very quickly and he wanted a Russia that would be worth having in one piece.
How deep is Prigozhin support? Deeper than I thought. He has stood up to Putin and Putin wants him dead but so far he is untouchable. He has been doing a lot of PR and building a persona. He understands the Russian hieacy and could well have support from many in power and possible alliances with other PMCs and other regional powers. But how much support he has is unknown.
What will he do? He realizes his days are numbered and his only option is to take control or have a part in a new regime. He is unlikely to march on Moscow and start a bloody battle as he realizes this coup has to be a bloodless one for Russians so he will take the high ground. Expect very strong retoric and possible ultimatums over the coming days weeks as he knows if he wins the PR war he wins Russia. Having your own news outlets is more important than having a battalion of infantry at this time.
He will try to make Putin an offer he cannot refuse and ideally take over with an "amicable" bloodless coup.
He is a bigger threat to the west than Putin and the west knows it. Although he would pull Russian troops out of Ukraine and rebuild international relations we will still have the Russia we see today with an even more ruthless leader.
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4 hours ago, nightowl said:
Modern economies are so interlinked because trade is there are plenty of knock on effects when one country does something then another reacts. The eu is a free trade block with a common currency agreed and acted upon by member states ....by definition that's a 'conspiracy' in it's broadest sense.
Trying to view the world and it's banks as all conspiracy ignores the true complexity of it. In the same way saying anyone observing common patterns is a conspiracy theorist is nonsense too.
One man's fact is another man's conspiracy theory.
Sometimes people, governments, organisations make up things to further their own interests. Most people are sheep and don't question even the most blatent fabrication.
Example. They said the Covid 19 outbreak was down to "natural" events and started in a "wet" trade market. How convenient and how it became fact to most so quickly. It was only those that looked at the actual facts could see this for what it was. Hmmm gain of function research had been done on carona viruses at an intitution in the very same region. The fact this was hushed up so quickly and could not be discussed as even a possibility made it more likely. Now we do know it did start at the lab and there was a conspiracy from the start. Ironically those that said that it was suspicious and it should be looked into much more carefully were called "conspiracy theorists" and should listen to the people who know.
Other examples include Jimmy Saville, The world is flat, We are the centre of the Universe etc etc etc etc
Although you personally may not have known what was going to happen to the economy and inflation many of us were absolutely certain. It was obvious. It may be true that Bailey is a total idiot and just does not understand basic economics but are you really trying to tell us all those in power could not see and were/are totally incompetent? I conceed there is a very high level of incompetence but to say it is at the level you suggest, well.............. its just a conspiracy theory.
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Russian civil war then?
Putin fears wagner more than the Ukrainians, that is for sure.
This could change everything as it is more difficult to keep out of the press and explain in Russia. Propaganda gets much more complicated
edited to explain
Russia fears Wagner more than Ukraine fears Wagner.
Russia obviously fears Ukraine more than it does Wagner.
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1 hour ago, Horseradish said:
On here, in the media, on every talk show and in every forum people are shouting that the Bank of England doesn't know what it's doing. You're being gaslit; the Bank of England knows precisely what it is doing - it's raising interest rates very slowly in order to inflate out the giant piles of debt at savers' expense. This has a formal name - Financial Repression, and, indeed, none other than the IMF have a paper on how governments can perform this act: The Liquidation of Government Debt. Lyn Alden has also spoken a lot about this.
Yes
Many have been saying this for 18 months, including you and me.
It was always going to be a very tough task and they underestimated the enormity as well as underestimating the inflation itself.
Bailey, himself, the patsy in all this may well have believed in his own omnipotence and could well have believed he could keep interest rates low believing we were in a totally new paradigm where ultra-low interest rates would go on forever. BUT those in the know realized what they were doing and were "gaslighting" as they raised interest at the very slowest, they could. Don't expect anyone to come clean on this and we might get some trickle truths come through which is the best we can hope for.
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On 08/10/2008 at 13:49, Flat Bear said:
Think it through.
Why is it a good move?
How does it affect the banks?
The banks can borrow at slightly lower rates from the central banks which is OK but really doesnt solve their massive and increasing lending requirement, end result is central banks will be bank of last only resort.
How will banks respond?
They will lend even less to each other as they try and get fed as much as possible by the limited amount of cash available at low rates from the central banks, many will become totally dependant and puppets for their new master. Losses will grow and compound daily and using the new borrowing rate of the relavent central banks as a base mortgages and loans will rise to accomodate whilst saving rates will fall in line.
How will it affect money?
It will de-incentivise lending. Why lend money if there are little rewards especially when liquidity is at a premium and risk is so much higher.
Who will gain?
The banks could see a very short term gain in margin and thus profits.
Will it make it easier to get a business loan or overdraft?
No
It is not a problem with rate of interest but available reserves and risk.
Expect business overdrafts to go up again. Was around 3 points over recently risen to around 5 to 6 points over now expect a rise to 10 points plus.
Overall low interest rates at a time of high inflation will be more detrimental to the well being of the economy. The short term gains will disappear quickly.
I had not considered the possibility, or the concept of, QE.
QE and ZIRP distorted everything.
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5% nominal fall by the end of 2023 (annual fall)
trough in 2025 of 20% to 25% nominal fall from peak
Total peak to trough fall in real terms of 50% possibly slightly more.
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Could we see the govenor of the BOE resign in the very near future? This would make an incoming Hawks job easier as he and the government could put all the blame on the Bailey patsy.
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So it looks like those that believed the BOE then still believe the BOE was correct and there is no real inflationary problem, ie it is all temporary and no need to raise rates as rate rises are a long term tool.
IF inflation was temporary there is no problem.
Even the banks and some of the market seem to believe all this. 5 year fixed mortgage rates are LOWER than 2 year fixed rates? This tells you all you need to know.
Let them continue to be surprised over and over and over again when they underestimate the affect QE and ZIRP had on the currency and economy on a long time scale. There was consequences and the chickens are coming home to roost.
Notice how the debt that has built up since 2011 correlates with the QE pumped into "the system".
QE was deflationary, yes I know, because it made the currency very cheap and the value of it fell so interest rates could be kept artificially low. This is and will slow down the fall in assets such as houses in the shorter term (end of 2023?)
QT is inflationary for the same reason. There is still a lot of money in the system and it will take a long time for this money supply to drop to a level where money actually becomes valuable and banks and other institutions actively ask you for your money in return for a favourable interest rate ie above the inflation rate.
Around a 6% base rate will be where we will see the start on downward pressure on house prices as enough people decide to change their habits. QT will take some time to actually have a real affect.
It seems I have underestimated the timescale of events and was wrong. The economy is still holding up. Plenty of offers of very cheap money albeit more than before, The CPI figures are still lower than I thought and wages are not increasing anywhere near what I had thought by now.
Bubbles go up much higher and last much longer than anyone can predict.
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On 31/08/2022 at 22:04, Flat Bear said:
Can you see the paradox? Because of this situation the UK will see inflation much higher and for a longer period than most other countries. There will be a reset as you seem to allude to and overall the UK will become poorer generally as a consequence.
As is always the case, this will take a long time to play out and it will be a painful experience for all of us.
I can not see how we can avoid inflation, I really can't. As the money we hold becomes less valuable people will demand more of it for the services they provide which becomes a self fullfilling spiral.
Think we are starting to see this now.
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On 29/08/2022 at 21:31, Flat Bear said:
It will be very interesting coming back to this thread in a years time. What we understand then about what is happening now will be more than a little interesting. How many will have changed their view from temporary to persistent?
Sorry but I have bumped this thread up 2 months early but it would be good to find out who, if anyone, has changed their minds. Temporary to Persistent or visa versa.
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3 minutes ago, Dyson Fury said:
Back in January, Rishi Sunak gave five pledges, one of which was that his government would halve inflation by the end of the year. When he made the speech on 4 January, the most recent CPI inflation rate (November 2022) was 10.7 per cent.
You can listen to his speech here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-64166417
Note his wording: "Promise". "Pledge".
Now look at the gov.uk website:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-outlines-his-five-key-priorities-for-2023
"Priorities".
It looks odds on he will fail on all five pledges/promises.
Which one could he possibly achieve?
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Even I am suprised it did not go down. I had previously worked out inflation would dip down this month or next to a very low level 4% to 5% and it did in the states and elsewhere due to technical reasons. I had thought this because the PM was so certain he could get inflation halved by technical means.
BUT the inflation monster, as we all know, dips down and then up and it is the trend and the fundamentals that need to be followed. The momentum is up and I would not be suprised if we have not hit the trough and inflation will jump "unexpectidly" higher next month and the month after that.... and so on. By now you would think they would have got used to being suprised month after month and actually expect figures to be higher than their predictions.
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7 hours ago, GenZ said:
As the last remaining Bull, i was going to say no change to 0.25, but after today 0.5 is nailed on with a further raise to come
peaking out at 5.5 to 6% then quickly reducing in 2024
"then quickly reducing in 2024"
LOL In your dreams. Hopium. Or did you mean 2044?
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6 hours ago, MerchantNavy said:
Lots of footage out there of Ukrainian military dragging civilians from the streets, more forced conscription. Latest one shows the army rep getting two rocks to the head.
You somehow forgot to post links? I have not come across anything to back your claims up. Please post as many links as possible please this would be very interesting and an important development. I do not mind if some are from a Russian source (unreliable and likely fake) as I would try and authenticate it as much as I can. Interested in the video you have on the army rep having his head smashed in with rocks? Did this really happen?
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13 hours ago, Night Tripper said:
What a laughable way of saying we must support Ukraine indefinitely
Laughable to you but true. "We" (not including you) must support Ukraine indefinitely.
Looking at what is actually happening and how Ukraine itself is changing. Ukraine is building its own defence manufacturing base. Ukraine could become the biggest exporter of military goods and weapons within a decade. Odd isn't it?
Ukraines future actually looks much better than it did before this war (special operation) started. Ironical really. Ukraine has been put on the map for many of us westerners. I for one could not point out were Odesa was or where the Dnipro river ran. I had no idea on how so many countries were dependent on Ukrainian wheat. Ukraine has been looking west and the west is looking at Ukraine, a very large and resources rich country.
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17 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:
I've sampled Joe Blogs for a while but the reports are never correctly weighted.
Just look at all his videos, there's an agenda (that's ok if honest), I'm sure he'll call something right eventually.Good job he doesn't examine the UK economy.
You must be aware of such data:
Russia nation debt is ~$360bn, the UK's is ~$3260bn
Russia GDP growth ~2%, the UK's GDP is ~0%
Russia interest rate 7.5%, the UK's interest rate 4.5%
Russia inflation rate 2.5%, the UK's inflation rate is ~8%Who's going broke?
It is difficult to find any source 100% unbiased, that is always true.
But I take it you disagree and think that Russia will get into 2024 (if they don't get heavily defeated in Ukraine) without any major financial problems?
Looking at the situation as detached as I can I think Russia is under tremendous economic difficulties and I think it will be this that will eventually bring Putins Russia down.
This Joe Blogs believes that Russia will have problems within 3 to 6 months so not too long to see if he is correct or if you are correct.
I don't know how to set a reminder to recheck our posts but I promise to try and come back to it at Christmas time this year if I can remember.
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Will Russia run out of money within a few months at its current expenditure?
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2 hours ago, rollover said:
Are you having a laugh?
Are you saying that waiting for the Ukraine counteroffensive is like Estragon waiting for Godot ... ?
Unfortunately all this is not going to happen at your and Putins pace. It will happen when Ukraine decide it will happen.
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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:
Russia is not a country it is a dying empire too poor even to maintain its existing infrastructure and facing demographic collapse. Putin hoped to prolong its life by occupying and subjugating Ukraine, instead he has almost certainly hastened its demise.
The war is set to continue for years and at some point one or more of the regions that are exploited by Moscow for their natural resources and now are having their young men sent to their death as connon fodder in a distant war are going to rebel.
Yes, you could well be right.
No matter what happens in Ukraine Russia is doomed. It just happens to be Ukraine that initiates this demise.
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1 hour ago, Optobear said:
Would it be terrible for them?? Decide close to the election to introduce MIRAS? Kick the inflation issue down the road?
UK Govt debt is £2.45 trillion, so inflation has reduced that by about £245bn over 12 months (in real terms).
They took £786bn in taxes over 12 months. So the reduction in their liability is pretty chunky (in real terms).
So the reduction in the real value of their debt over a year is the same size as VAT and Business Tax combined.
Are we sure they don't want 10% inflation?
Yep
You are right.
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24 minutes ago, Night Tripper said:
It is not certain that the US can afford to stop supporting Ukraine.
Unlike Afghanistan, Iraq or most other interventions, the US has made this war into a vote of confidence regarding the might of its empire.
The opponent isn't an amorphous group or a third world country no one knows. It will be difficult to reframe a retreat from Ukraine as anything other than a comprehensive defeat of NATO at the hands of a single opponent. This is something that has never happened before.
The opponent
????
The opponent is Russia isn't it?
Russia is a third world country. Did you not know this?
If there was a country to choice who have very unclear borders and stability and likely to lose large swathes of land area very soon you couldn't go wrong with Russia.
Neither the US or NATO are in Ukraine "fighting" the Russians. I understand that this could become a reality in September when the counteroffensive finally takes place.
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Russia is becoming (has become?) very weak and there are plenty of vultures waiting to take away its lands and resources.
How long can Russia continue to defend itself?
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7 hours ago, rollover said:
You are not good in geography, are you?
The largest country in europe (and the world) by surface area is Russia.
7 hours ago, Staffsknot said:Have the trolls turned on each other like mini Wagner moment 🙂
lol
Blue on Blue.
Wonder if they are from rival BOT schools? Wagner backed and Putin backed.
Rollover is the BOT not so good at geography Ukraine is infact the largest country wholly inside of Europe.
Rollover is trying to give a technically correct answer as Russia is the biggest country in Europe (for the time being). BUT it is mainly in the Asian continent.
When we listen to reports about this war (special operation to those Russians) we must remember the scale of this battlefield and the importance logistics in playing a major role.
The Collapse of Russia. What happens next?
in Current affairs
Posted
I have not been monitoring the Russian trolls on this site over the last day or two regarding the coup and Prigozhin.
They are in a very difficult position here as Prigozhin could well be their new master very soon. Expecting silence but will check out the responses so far.