kidgorgeous
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Posts posted by kidgorgeous
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At least they don't have to move to Ebbsfleet now though
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Is durhamborn still around? Just wondering if people still feel that deflationary collapse is still on the cards?
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Did Kevin say he was born in 1985? He looks like he's in his mid 50s. Suppose that what working 100 hours a week does to you.
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1 hour ago, durhamborn said:
@Sancho Panza .I think pensions are showing what happens at the end of a dis-inflation cycle (consumer driven) .The productive assets of the country cant sustain the demands on it in financial returns.The article is right,but what it misses is how things might be resolved.Massive investment in the backbone of the economy instead of funding consumption through the likes of welfare.
As for the crash,the way pensions are being structured is very very worrying given the systemic risk involved.Insurance companies might do very well in a reflation given rates will be heading higher and most pensions have a 5% uplift limit where inflation will be likely much higher over the cycle.The problem is surviving the credit deflation and i wouldnt want to be owning wondering who the counter party was on lots of the assets.
The next cycle will solve a lot of the problems where promises are far too generous as inflation will do its magic there,but getting there is going to contain huge shocks.
The Fed will print $8 trillion+ to stop a free falling financial system,but not before massive wealth destruction.
Do you know if most public sector pensions have unlimited index linking or not?.
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Just wondering what
3 hours ago, durhamborn said:They are all the same.They have no understanding of how the macro picture affects a balance sheet with that much debt.They base things on EBITDA x whatever debt levels,without understanding we are at the top of a cycle.Of course i know exactly where we are in input costs and how much can be passed on because i do a lot of cross market work on this.They just look at the numbers.Capita isnt bankrupt,but its very close and will be without equity if there are cash outflows this next 24 months due to restructuring costs etc.
How do you think insurance company's will do in the next cycle? I assume they have low input costs?
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16 minutes ago, spyguy said:
Nope. If they are doing it in 0.25% increments then they are 4 increases behind.
Should have started last year, raising by 0.25 every 4 months.
While i want this to be true, why does the BOE need to raise rates when the pound is rising against the dollar at the moment?
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5 hours ago, durhamborn said:
This ^.Trackers contain the likes of AA at £4.14 with £1.5 billion of debt.I like ETFs for certain things,where price increases push up all boats,but i think trackers will be and are poor investments going forward.
I'm getting confused. AA is about 1.50 a share?
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7 minutes ago, spyguy said:
Agreed.
There should be no tax payer bail out for underfunded pension funds. Its nuts. You are getting people with fuxall pension to pay the unfunded pensions of people who were guven much better deals.
Destroy the equity. Claw back bonuses fir 10 years years. Write down direvtors pensions. Wipe out any bond holder.
I thought the tax payer is not on the hook though?. The pension protection fund is paid for by all the other companies that have defined benefit pensions schemes not the government.
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14 minutes ago, durhamborn said:2 hours ago, kidgorgeous said:
Instead of buying individual stocks is there any good resource OEICs or investment trusts to have a look at?
There are lots and many of them are US based.If you have an online share dealing account you need to get a W-8BEN form (hargreaves etc have one on the site to print off and send back in) and get it sent in ready.That way you will be able to trade the US based ETFs etc.Things like URA a fund of uranium miners and COPEX a fund of copper miners should be great buys in the next cycle.FCG a fund of natural gas suppliers should also do very well.Iv actually bought a few FCG the last couple of weeks even though i hope/expect to get them cheaper later because they are already very cheap
I'm with cavendish at the moment. Got a bit of money in a vanguard life strategy fund. Will take a look at some commodity/resource funds though. From what you are saying though if everything pans out the way you think it will then staying mainly cash is ok if looking to buy a house at somepoint?
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27 minutes ago, oracle said:31 minutes ago, Castlevania said:
The Blackrock World Mining Trust is worth a look. I used to own this. Quite a diverse holding covering all types of mining companies and they also hold some physical precious metals. Listed on the LSE under the ticker BRWM.
27 minutes ago, oracle said:there's lots of OEICs dealing with resources/commodities but they tend to be quite sector specific.
in general they will either be energy/industrial materials+metals/precious metals or agriculture.
I've not found one which has a spread of all of them,which is what I would like ideally.
good news is you can wrap most of these in an ISA to get the best tax efficiency.
if you want to go totally precious metals route then maybe blackrock fund is your bag.it's high beta though.
checkout http://www.morningstar.co.uk
Thank you. Something to have a look at. Mainly in cash at the moment.
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Instead of buying individual stocks is there any good resource OEICs or investment trusts to have a look at?
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Is there any point of this thread?
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So will there ever be another proper recession? or QE to infinity?.
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Broadmoor?
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So the FED will raise tomorrow and will give details of how they will start unwinding their QE. At some point will the bank of england have to follow their lead?
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Could landlords not reduce their rents to help these people?
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3 hours ago, LC1 said:
Is US rate rising potentially sufficient as a black swan, or at least a first domino, to really start the ball rolling back towards more normal rates and lower asset prices in the UK, or does Carney have it covered by his bag of (evil) tricks to keep plates spinning for yet another (lost) decade?
Can't help with an answer but would love it if the FED does keep raising rates and the BOE have to follow eventually. I understand if FED keeps raising the dollar becomes stronger against the pound so we get inflation but is any other problems this causes us so we have to raise as well?
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Are you referring to the graph that we normally follow the fed in raising and lowering rates?. What i would like to find out is if we stay at 0.25 and the fed keeps raising
what happens? I'm hoping the answer is we will have to raise rates at some point as well.
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So if the FED do raise rates the predicted 3 times this year do the BOE have to follow suit at some point?
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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/su_3x4jsv6w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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4 minutes ago, Pindar said:
The question is really do they want to cause a financial crisis the likes of which the world has never seen?
Are you referring to the FED or the BOE?
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1 minute ago, rollover said:
“The Fed will raise rates soon and Carney is facing 180 degrees in the wrong direction,” Buxton said. “Carney won’t want the interest rate differential between the US and UK to be too great otherwise it will put more pressure on sterling. “He may have to raise rates as the economy deteriorates.” but “It won’t be enough to cause a housing market collapse,” he said. mortgagesolutions
i get what you are saying but does Carney care if sterling comes under pressure? Does he care if inflation was over 5%?.
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1 minute ago, jiltedjen said:
There is going to be quite a gap between us and america now in real terms interest rates.
I would like to think the BOE would raise, but they know full well the crash has started, and to raise rates now would really add a lot of fire to itWould BOE be forced to raise at some point if say the fed raised to over 1%?
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2 minutes ago, rollover said:
Bank of England have to follow soon.
Why? ( I really hope you are right!)
Bank of England relaxes mortgage rules
in House prices and the economy
Posted
Headline in the telegraph 'First time buyers receive 27k boost'. In other words houses will increase 27k in asking price. Jesus wept.