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Simon Taylor

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Everything posted by Simon Taylor

  1. Agreed, although none of the energy sources we currently take for granted have been installed without public subsidy of one kind or another (those of you with woodburners are exempt from this generalisation) The new FiT means that self generators are getting about twice the value of the electricity they produce. Energy prices are only going one way and it's likely that PVS will need no subsidy within four years. If this makes a significant reduction in the amount of coal and gas we have to import then its all to the good. If the government sold this as an investment in our energy security rather than a green subsidy, it might get a less cynical response.
  2. I really cant support the hysteria being whipped up about this change in FiTs. When FiTs for PVS were introduced in April 2010, installed prices for a sub 4kWp system (most domestic systems fall into this category) gave a first year return of 6-8%, tax free and inexed to RPI. Installed prices have come down fro £16k to sub £10k so the new FiTs give a first year return of around 6-8%, tax free and indexed to RPI. Yes, it will be a harder sell, but to suggest that the entire PVS sector is facing armageddon is nonsense. Some heavily geared and/or inefficient firms will sadly go to the wall. On the upside, the industry will attract fewer spivs and chancers and might just avoid the fate of the double glazing industry.
  3. The target for zero carbon new homes by 2016 was quietly dropped by the current government in March this year. The target for all new commercial buildings to be built to a similar standard by 2019 remains in place and is equally unlikely to be achieved. The Government might get more buy in to this if it changed its stance on why removing our dependence on oil/gas/coal fired generation is a good thing. Carbon targets are seen as a compliance cost and most people cant relate to any perceived benefit when the developing nations are increasing fossil fuel use at a startling rate. If the government came clean and made people aware of the fact that we now import the majority of all the fossil fuels used to heat and light our homes, and outlined the financial consequences of this in terms of ever rising energy costs, zero carbon homes, and their low running costs might become more attractive.
  4. The field tests run by Photon magazine are a good place to start.. http://energia.elmedia.net/en/news/rec-solar-modules-number-one-in-independent-photon-field-performance-test_00296.html Candian Solar are one of the better Chinese modules for budget isntallations, Suntech also relatively well regarded. The general view is that quite a few of the Asian manufacturers are likely to go bust in the near term. SImon
  5. Interesting debate. Let me declare an interest here; my company supplies and installs PV systems for domestic and commercial customers. My take on the subjects raised here are: 1. Costs - yes, down a lot over the past 18mths. When the FiT scheme was introduced in April 2010 and 4kWp system would typically cost £15k. We are pricing them at around £10 at the moment (using good quality modules and inverters - you can get much cheaper if you want to use some of low cost asian modules but we dont becasue we dont like the quality of the guarantees behind them). Several reasons for this - massive over capacity worldwide coupled with changes to subsidies paid in the previously strongly growing markets of Germany and Spain. The changes made to the UK FiT scheme for large systems in August this year also meant that a lot of shipped capacity suddenly had nowhere to go. 2. FiT. It does need to come down and perhaps should have already done so; domestic customers who get in at the current rate are achieving a first year yield of up to 16% - remember this is tax free and index linked to RPI for 25 years - so clearly if changes arent made then the money will run out. If the FiT rate is halved, as is widely expected (we'll probably find out today) then a well designed domestic PV system should still yield 6-8% which was pretty much where we were at when the scheme was started. A lower FiT should also kill off much of the 'free' PV market which has sucked much of the money up in the last year. 3. FiT income and moving. The FiT income is asigned to you (not a property) and you can take it with you but whether a purchaser would be happy with that arrangement is open to debate. 4. Economics. Investment return aside, anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of the UKs precarious energy situation will know that electricty prices are only heading one way. We are increasingly reliant on middle eastern and north African countries for our gas supplies ( we generate over 35% of our electricity from gas powered stations) and these countries are hardly immune to political instability. A stand off between Saudi and Iran could put an immediate halt to those shipments of LNG from Qatar for example. These supplies are also sold on an open market and faster growing asian economies may be able to pay more for them. Self generation is not only sensible, it is probably vital for energy security. 5. Self installation - your installation is only eligable for the FiT payment if it have been installed by a MCS accredited installer using MCS accredited products. You probably can get this accrediation easily enough, there are lots of courses available. If you are thinking of getting it done, the usual due diligence should be observed; check out the directors of the business on Companies House - PO box addresses should be a cause for concern. Talk to their existing customers and have a look at installed work if possible. Good luck Simon
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