Bubble Pop Electric
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Posts posted by Bubble Pop Electric
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According to this evenings dose of "Real Story",
"A government report into death certification in 2003 showed that only 55% of death certificates are correct. This meant that 45% weren't. So nearly quarter of a million certificates are wrong. "
This raises an interesting point.
How do they know they're wrong? And if they know they are incorrect, couln't they correct them?? When my uncle died of a stroke, his wife didn't want a post mortem into what had caused it, as she thought it would upset her too much. My cousin wanted to know as my uncle was young (50), to see if it could be hereditary, unfortunately she wasn't able to find out. So it isn't always possible to get the actual cause, and they can't always know.
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I don't quite agree. I am happy to read bull posts but only when they contain some coherent argument to support their line. There's too much jibing and sarcasm and not enough sensible debate. I have oftern asked the likes of TTRTR to substantiate their view but have had nothing back other than more of the same.
Anyway, since when did we listen to the views of bulls, and take it in all seriousness. Otherwise we would had listened to all our mums and dads, brothers, sisters, friends, work colleagues, hell - we wouldn't even be on here - or know it existed. It's all cause and effect. There has to be some bulls on here - i actually like ttrtr by the way - he is very funny, and takes a lot of flak. They have to tell us us the oposite of what is going to happen, so we can put them straight and tell them otherwise.
Fret not i told you so!
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The BOE won't panic, have no need to panic and are really, really trying to maintain financial stability. They really don't want to raise IRs at the moment.
There's a difference between don't want to raise them, and aren't going to raise them. There are probably a whole host of reasons why they don't want to raise them, that doesn't mean that they're not going to. You forget what rediculous times we are in, and the majority have accepted it as the norm. It couldn't possibly change - they won't let it....Why is it different this time IUN? I always think we'll look back at these times in a few years time and say - that was a bit mad wasn't it. Just like any other bubble, people thought nothing would change, better buy now, etc. Don't you think the powers that be, who had other peoples fate in their hands back then didn't want to panic, or change things.
Unfortunately, it isn't just down to rates - but sentiment, and once the investers get uncomfortable, and you put the combination of a couple of rate rises, more btl ll's becoming a bit edgy about their investment and people want to jump ship, can't sell, etc, the whole scene will turn a bit unpleasant for a lot of people. Maybe the BoE won't panic - but they might well be the straw that broke the camels back when they start their rate rises. The BoE, set the low rates the people set their confidence.
It's already starting to turn, and that's without a rate rise, when it's filters down to the rest of the population, that sentiment, and that's happening as well, there may well be no stopping the price falls.
I also think maybe the sheeple (my sister etc) will get bored of the hype, a bit like property programmes, their own mass force feeding of the population with them, will be in the end their own downfall. Love is the closest thing to hate.
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Sorry!
This is too much of a generalisation.
Your dad probably could have bought a house on single salary in 60s/70s, AT SOME POINT!
He probably couldn't have at late 70s.
A person in a similar position to yours 6 years ago wouldn't have had a problem buying a house on single wage.
10 years previous to this they would.
10 years on they possibly may not.
You are taking a purchase at the bottom of a peak in the market, comparing it with the top of the peak at present & getting bitter over the difference.
I guess from the figures, properties 6 years ago may have been averaging £70k - £80k, making it about £300pcm on interest only, which ARE designed to get a foothold on the ladder at the first available opportunity, then compensate later.
Can you say, truthfully, that there was no way on earth with any sacrifice at all that this could have been affordable, supposing you had a crystal ball & could have seen forward to today?
If you could have seen forward & could have taken the opportunity, then todays misfortune MUST be accepted as a poor financial decision at the time, but nothing to be bitter about.
Years ago I used to get colleagues complaining that they could have bought their council houses much cheaper than they eventually did, due to the advice that "nobody will buy a house in a council area". Poor financial decision at the time!
My parents bought their house in 1981, house prices had doubled by the time thay had saved up a deposit. They had 2 children, one income. We are in exactly the same situation as they were then. Except my husband is on a higher income (going on teachers salaries today, my hubby is sales manager). Knowing my husband/dad have the same attitude to money - i.e very sensible. We could not afford to buy that same basic house today - and we don't even live in an "expensive area". Yes - there are sacrifices to be made, but if you just can't get the mortgage.....
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A fellow Southern nancy has moved to Staffs, not far from Stoke. He calls it the grim and and frozen North and the people have rotting teeth.
That's a ploy to put you southern softies from coming up here, when there's someone from down sarf we turn the climate down. Then when you've gone we turn the climate back up again and take out the pretend teeth, and hey-ho paradise!! We all have hollywood teeth up here!!
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Winchester & nowhere North of Watford.
It's alright dogbox - we don't want you north of watford either!!!!
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I think it may just relate to any debt which cannot be repaid. Hence the need for counseling. In other words, the borrow and spend culture fostered by the Miracle Economy is destroying more and more lives.
Also - although there is secured debt, there are many, many people who build up huge amounts on their credit cards, you frquently hear of people with 50/60k on their credit cards. You only need to look on the debt website forum (i forget what it's called), to see people with 4/5k on several credit cards.
I do think people should take responsibility with what they borrow, when the banks say things like "that money is to do with what you like", "oh, it's flashing on my screen - you've been selected to have a credit card with x amount on", i don't think it's on.
Lenders should put up big signs in plain English - "You do realise you will have to pay this back with interest, don't you? " and "No, it won't be alright on the night!". Or make it really simple - "If you fail to pay us back, we'll take your BMW off you, and you won't be able to pull anymore, innit"
Tentpeg - you're absolutely right - the banks have no comeback then, a bit like warnings on cigarette packets, they're telling them how it is. Even if it doesn't stop people, at least they can't say they didn't know.
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i was concerned by one thing a conservative mp said on question time - i was quite with him on what he was saying until he said that the conservatives didn't want house prices to go down. There are no political parties who think that we are in a bubble. The conservatives, and labour both think the only answer to this is to build affordable housing. It's a joke. On housing, both parties are pathetic, and unwilling to acknowledge that there could ever be a drop. Cons also complain about levels of debt, but apparently access to any mortgage young people want is a good thing.
These people are all dangerous, they have nothing better to say. Even the bnp were trying to take credit for house price rises where they had won seats. GB is not a person i would ever like to meet, but on the housing issue alone - there are no differences to the solution - they're both singing from the same song sheet. Now - i'm off to pack my suitcase!
p.s. the only difference is cameron says he wants to build beautiful homes!!
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sorry teddyboy, but I suggest you follow a thread before you comment on it. Realistbears predictions are not predictions at all, something you would understand had you have bothered to read my posts. And we don't have a difference of opinion. There is right and there is wrong. I'm right, he is wrong, period. Check out the chart:
Like he said though - is there anybody who's likely to follow his "predictions"? Whether rb is right or wrong i don't know, and i couldn't comment as i don't really have a clue about shares. I can understand your point if people are taking his advice as gospel, and following it out - but how many are? Most people are on here, because they don't listen to people. I'm not taking sides as i don't know who's right, but you would have to be stupid to buy and sell shares from what someone on here has said.
btw - i don't think frozen out can afford a dictionary - he/she is saving up for a house!!
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I can't see how they can do it. It would be good if they could though, might speed things along - or would that leave the door even wider open for second home owners (in some areas - that's a rough guess btw)?
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Because of our comedy legal system, it's actually quite easy for a father to bail on his kids and not have to pay maintanace. I would not advise any woman to completely give up her career and rely on their partner as it could put them in a very poor position if things go wrong.
Yes - make sure you work full time, and put your children into nursery all day. I look after my kids full time. I think it's one of the most important things you can do. It is well worth it for my children's sake. Life's too short to be paranoid.
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Just what the hell IS going on there ?
The last desperate attempts to stave off a looming economic disaster.
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The banks theory is that if the public are confident with the message the bank sends out, then the British worker won't be asking for pay rises, & manufacturers won't have to put their prices up to cope with it.
I'm sorry, but what absolute tosh. Joe Public has absolutely no idea what inflation means to him, & can you imagine unskilled Britain asking for a pay rise when there's an army of Polish/etc migrants just waiting to fill their boots at half the cost?
In addition, with UK businesses struggling to compete, there's little chance of them putting their prices up, come what may.
Surely the major causes for inflation are high oil & commodities prices, & rising global interest rates. The British public has absolutely no control over those whatsoever. If the bank sits on its hands & does nothing, & the causes of inflation do not disappear by themselves (which obviously they won't), then the bank will only have to take more drastic steps later on to tackle what has become a much bigger problem.
Maybe that would be a good thing, because that would absolutely shatter the confidence of the public.
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Surely the key concern for the bank should be what inflation is actually doing, not what the public think about it.
What do the public know? Joe bloggs is the one who's sending the economy down the pan in the first place (well, him & his mate big Gordon).
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Of course they won't be forced into selling their home.
Most mortgages from the endowment days were piddling compared to today and it's going to be a shortfall, not a case of receiving nothing. In almost all cases I suggest that shortfall will be in the order of less than £10K (assuming a £30K mortgage from the 1980's, that's a 33% shortfall) - is that really going to make people sell up ? I seriously doubt it. The bigger borrowers will in most cases be those on higher wedge so can afford a bigger shortfall...
Funny that - my mum took out a 30k mortgage, and will be 7k short when her mortgage ends in three years time. The financial advisor didn't say about any risks, and i do think she was mis-sold it. However when she made a complaint, as endowment holders were invited to do so - she was told by the company, that her application was rejected as she was not classed as a risk taker. (Although - if she's not a risktaker, why would she have taken out an endowment mortgage if she had been told about all the risks?) Anyway, she's just putting up with the fact that she's going to be 7k short, and cutting her loses. So you're probably right - it won't be a big deal to most, just a pain.
On a sidenote - my father-in-law who worked in a mortgage centre, had a conversation with a man who said he had paid off his mortgage. But you're x amount short, says father-in-law. Oh no i'm not says the man!! He was convinced there was nothing left to pay. I wonder if it ever sunk in?
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1) Private
2) £400
3) 4
4) west yorks
5) £125k
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I'm with you, CO. My first 2 properties were small flats which I suspect wouldn't have been considered by half the moaning FTBs on here. In fact, I wasn't able to buy my first 'proper' house with 'proper' garden until I was well into my 40s, and I managed that only after planning career changes that would allow me to move up the ladder a bit.
These home improvement programmes on TV that show glamorous young couples eyeing up 3/4 bed houses with gardens seem to have distorted expectations.
Brassfarthing - My parents are at the same age we are when they bought the house down the road from where i live now. I can tell you, we are in a similar situation to them, but we couldn't afford to buy it now - they could, and we're not a glamorous young couple like you suggest. Also this nonsense about half decent houses, and how ungrateful we are is clap trap, it's the owners who do up their houses/flats with stupid flooring and "oh it's absolutely georgous" Justin and whatshisface lime green paint, and cheap, but new kitchens that expect a whooping stack of cash. Who cares what the houses are decorated like. That's superficial, what matters is that housing is not worth the risk, whether you're in it for the long term or not. What you're saying is that the problem isn't house prices, the problem is the greedy selfish ftb's - who want something for nothing, and whose standards are too high.
You obviously - don't take into account that crime is worse that it was back then. A lot of the areas my friends grew up in that were low income houses, and good first homes, are very unsafe now because of the crime rate today. For example a house i used to rent had hanging baskets 15+ years ago, now it has used needles. Do i want my five year old running about near that? How fussy of me. And to pay 100k extra for the privalidge than i would have done four years ago? I don't think so. Oh then there's job security. If there wasn't a problem in the recent house price hikes, and it wasn't encouraging people to get into stupid levels of debt, there wouldn't be this site.
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Interesting. What does "galv lintel" mean? What's the definition of "design life"? Does this apply to all new builds or just the cr@ppier ones?
frugalista
I'll assume galvanised lintels as in windows and doors. What worried me more was the builder who told me the other day, that there's some builder on with some new builds who is using two of those flimsy floor boards (chipboard mush when wet), glued together to make his floor joists! Now i'm not a builder by any means, but it made my daughter's wendy house sound more appealing! Perhaps someone on here can eleborate, on this legal, but extremely tight money saving practice, as i've probably not made it sound very clear.
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Oh - i now feel really broody! I have my orders and i'm allowed no more! Comgratulations on your new baby.
We are renting, and if you must buy, do think about schools and secondary schools, amenities now. This may sound rash, but you don't want to be stuck in negative equity, and realize you can't move to a school's catchment area. We nearly bought when i our oldest was three - how pleased am i that we didn't. Renting could be good for that very reason, and if house prices did fall, you would then be in a better position. But like someone on here said - if it really feels right to buy then go on and do so , if you've covered all your bases, then go for it and i wish you luck.
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Did you listen to the phone-in afterwards? The total lack of comment by the panel on the insane general house price inflation fed by irresponsible lending and unregulated credit was very notable. One of the callers, an "original" inhabitant of a seaside village (can't remember the name) taken over by second home owning sailing types, mentioned that a 1 bedroom flat there was £350K and at least he had the courage to condemn the hpi exploiting BTL/investors who had turned local people into economic outcasts.
I was half listening to this "original" chap. I applauded him in my car as he told the presenter, about the loss of even the tourism industry in his village because of second home owners. When the presenter suggested that the young people had moved out of the village because of the lack of jobs. I was also pleased that this chap put him straight, on how they couldn't afford to live there. I am glad i don't live in one of these villages. He even slated the woman before who thought her village was much better because of all the second home owners. Who cares if there aren't any young people living in the village anymore?! I didn't catch all of it unfortunately.
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Surely TTRTR's a slave to his mortgages.
By paying rent i am no longer a slave to debt, or a slave to our mortgage. Renting at the moment is the lesser of those evils - but then i can't expect to live for nothing. Definately better than getting a mrtgage, and as we are able to save more and more through renting, as it's so much less. We don't have to pay for repairs to the house etc, so we head more towards financial freedom each day. I definately don't feel like a slave to my landlord.
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Agree....my father in law fought in the first gulf war. The injections gave him gulf war syndrome which added to his ptsd. He battled with alchohol for years, drinking to stop the nightmares. He then fell in canal while drunk and died. Life just aint that simple.
That's really sad, i'm sorry to hear about your father in law. You're absolutely right - life just isn't that simple. There are so many other things in life that go wrong. People don't just have problems with finances/divorce - it's so much more complex than that. You don't even have to have a rubbish upbringing - something to goes wrong in your adult life, and for your world to collapse around you, we can't control everything..
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Yeah you are probably right! I could not think of every scenario Im afraid. I cant edit the poll as its editting capability has expired.
I do find it interesting that there is a large amount of people that can actually AFFORD to buy a house but are not going to because they are over-priced. This is not a greed thing in my opinion. It's not different than me refusing to buy official Calvin Klein Boxers! They may be £25 a pair (which I CAN afford) but it does not make them value for money, or worth the asking price just because I have the money.
WE WILL NOT BUY AT THESE PRICES!!!
This is very reassuring to know!!!
TB
Yes - exactly our reason for STRing - i was pregnant at the time, and we wanted to move as almost everyday car was being vandalised, needed extra space etc, didn't have garden. When we had the house valued before it was in negative equity so we couldn't move. Whe nthe price went up, and we weren't in neg equity we sold. Mother was moving and didn't want to sell hers - hey presto, we move into 4 bed house, with garden (£400 rent a month), and save like mad. We were not prepared to buy at ludicrous prices - why that makes us greedy, i don't know. When i got married we didn't spend any money by most standards, but that's just the way we are, exactly the same reason why i won't buy designer clothes. I'd buy for the quality, but not the name. I beleive in paying what something is worth, and when you can start to see the pound signs in the wedding venue/house vendor's eyes you know it's a joke. One lady whose house we went to look at asked me what we could afford, and invented some fictional charater "who was really interested in buying their house", we pulled out - someone else bought it for less. That put me off buying.
I suspect most STR's moved for other reasons, and just decided not to buy at the time - i still say it's a good move.
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The police only hold law and order together in this country by fear and reputation. Look on the ground and there's no-one there.
The thing I find amazing, is that if I drive past my local cop shop (or the one about 5 miles away), no matter what day of the week, or time of the day, & the car park is ALWAYS absolutely FULL of patrol cars. Why is that? They claim not to have resources to put people on the street, but pay for a load of cars to sit in a car park all day. If they don't have enough coppers to drive the cars, get rid of some of the cars & employ more coppers to WALK around. If they do have enough coppers to drive the cars, why are they never out in them?
JUST WHAT EXACTLY DO THEY DO ALL DAY FFS!?!
Morgan Stanley Call A Worldwide Property Slump
in House prices and the economy
Posted · Edited by Bubble Pop Electric
But that's what happens in a bubble - nobody can see it happening, otherwise everybody would be bears, but nobody thinks it will happen. So they pull out all the stops, till it becomes so rediculous they have to admit it themselves. I think it's a bit like the boy who cried wolf. By the time people get bored of listening to warnings, and they've all finally climbed on the bandwagon, then the trouble actually starts.