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About GordonGreer

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    HPC Poster
  1. The wait is over for the Eastbourne market to crash. We exchanged today so, on that basis, 20% down in the next year is guaranteed... Seriously, I am perfectly happy to have secured a low interest rate (fixed for 7 years) and to be looking forward to being in our own home. Prices are going absolutely nowhere, in nominal terms which are the only ones that matter, and I can't see that changing. The next development which is a complete no-brainer will be longer terms for mortgages to maintain affordability at something around current price levels. There is a new attitude to debt, no longer important to be debt-free, people will be working til 70 - so 35 and 40 year mortgages will be commonplace soon. Good luck to all those who continue to wait. If you time it perfectly you might well still get 10% or 20% nominal off current prices at some stage in the next few years but I wouldn't count on it... HPC.co.uk is unquestionably a self-perpetuating and infinitely biased information source...! It hasn't done me any favours whatsoever and I make no apology for signing off on those terms.
  2. Not sure if it makes me feel better or worse...! It is definitely funny to think that if you've bought in Meads, with a garden, then it is probably a house we looked at and were frustrated by it selling...!!! Which part of Meads are you in? (don't worry I'm not planning on stalking you!) Our situation is confused by the fact that we are very lucky where we are renting - detached house with a massive garden in Meads at a below-market rent - and so for us to buy at the moment would involve us reducing our circumstances. It is weird for me how precisely the house we currently live in has become my benchmark for what we "should" be able to buy on our budget. At the moment it would cost about 10-15% more than we have and that has been the amount by which I have been hoping prices would fall for the past 2 years but as you know they haven't... You say that you "know prices will fall eventually"... I'm not so sure... I think there is every chance it will just a be a drawn out drift downwards that happens to a hardly noticeable extent in nominal terms (less than 10% over next 2-3 years combined...?) I can't let go emotionally on the reality that I've been "proved wrong" about all this (we sold 2 houses in 2009 when I believed prices were on their way down but they have actually since only gone up a bit)... we also missed the boat at that time (partly due to my fledgling HPC habit but also, mercifully, down to some reluctance on Mrs G.'s part) on one house that would have been a fantastic deal in hindsight which doesn't help... Taking into account all of the above and with a 5 year fixed available at 3.49% (and even a 10 year at 3.99?) then I think maybe I should now be looking to buy rather than looking not to buy... and then I think again (!) and feel that it remains the right thing to enjoy the rented house, wait, and then get more for our money (just a bit more or more than a bit more) in a year or two's time... Clear as mud.
  3. Well, here we are another six months on. Summary? Nothing has really changed. If anything the level of supply has fallen further and prices are being maintained at around 2007 peak prices (nominal terms - which are the only terms that really matter to me...). Occasionally something sells at a price that might be a bit below what it would have got at peak but probably more are selling at prices above peak and many are ludicrous. A house in Cranborne Avenue sold for around £800K last month having been bought at some point on the last few years for something like £450K (I can't bring myself to check the exact figures...!). It has been extended and done up but that can't have cost more than £200K at full contracted prices... whoever bought it has probably made something like £200K profit for arranging the building of an extension and some internal home improvements...! The HPC doctrinal fundamentals appear to be in place to put severe downward pressure on prices but the low interest rates and connected limited supply are in fact maintaining prices at near peak "bubble" levels in Eastbourne. I don't want to rent forever and there is no point if prices only ever fall in real terms. I am becoming resigned to the fact that I will probably end up buying at one of the worst points in history to buy a house (i.e. when they are ridiculously expensive relative to incomes) and that this will negatively affect the rest of my life in a significant way. There, that's off my chest again... Happy Days!
  4. Agree with all that. See one of our old favourites from this thread fell through today as well (£500K in Upper Ratton). I'm never exactly sure but I think (in the range £300K-£700K) more houses have gone from "SSTC" to "Available" in the last 4 weeks than the other way round, in addition to the new listings, so an actual net negative month for the EAs rather than just zero sales...?The evidence of the past 4 weeks is starting to get quite interesting. Obviously we're not going to see 10-20% capitulation overnight but things do seem to be heading in the right direction. My own aim is not to catch the absolute "bottom" as that won't come for many years and will be most significant in real terms (while I'm only really interested in nominal prices) - but having STRd I do want to buy at a time and place where I at least can get a good deal out of the current market - last year was a nightmare for that, it might end up being better this Summer but could be longer ...
  5. Which road in Meads? We are probably viewing some of the same houses.. After quite a lot of sales in January and the first part of February (did you see Rager & Roberts newspaper advert this week?) I am greatly heartened by the last 3 weeks or so that have definitely been of increased supply and almost no sales... A nice drop on one of my favourites in Seaford this afternoon has cheered me further. Fingers crossed for a more consistent flow of "good" news from hereon in...
  6. Agree that we have a way to go... there is still plenty of comedy pricing out there. Also, there haven't been many reductions in the last couple of weeks - the only comfort I can find at the moment is that almost NOTHING is selling... the last 14 days for Eastbourne(+5miles) show not a single house sold in my range of interest £350-700K and 43 new listings - in fact with one house going from SSTC back to available you could say the EAs have a "minus one" result for the fortnight... Not aware of any snow in the last couple of weeks or any reason why NO houses should be getting sold (apart from the obvious reason... so there is hope...) However, if the current comedically priced stock does all get sold without widespread reductions and general acknowledgement of a "buyers' market" then the game could be up for me... I'll go and buy in Seaford where prices are already Eastbourne Peak -30% ...
  7. Thanks for the "glass half full" perspective. I agree that things are getting better and that what we have long regarded as inevitable might be at least on the horizon. Searching RM houses at £350K and above in Eastbourne(+10 miles) gives 96 additions in the last 14 days and NOT ONE SALE- this has to be good news, although I admit I'm not sure exactly how significant it is...
  8. No change in last 2-3 weeks - unfortunately still have to agree with you about the "sizeable number of buyers" "chasing up prices"...This one has come back on after being de-listed over Christmas and is at a fairly ludicrous price... http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-33037544.html This one below also came on recently and it won't surprise me to see it go for close to asking (lots of interest, compares well to other stuff available despite not being much house for the money, etc) - would love it not to but no reason for much optimism about the short-term http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32976515.html?premiumA=true
  9. I was going to make a very similar posting... the two in Saffrons Park and the one in Parkway have all sold within a week or two of coming on and so presumably at or close to asking price. In addition, this one on Summerdown Road has just had two people wanting to pay full asking price and gone to sealed bids...! (plausible information from a relatively trusted EA...)http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32319896.html In true HPC style one can try and put on a positive spin about "flushing out the last of the pent-up, equity rich, demand" although it seems a bit hollow and more like the faltering "but, but, but, just wait until [insert future date]"... I don't know what to think and can only go back to basics: 1. LR data shows "average sale price of detached houses in East Sussex" as follows... Feb 2008 at £369K June 2009 at £297K August 2010 at £330K December 2010 at £329K So sale prices are 11% higher than the June 2009 bottom and 11% below the February 2008 peak ( = fully inflated bubble). In recent months they haven't really gone anywhere. 2..Supply in my search is barely any different now (18th Feb) to what it was 6 weeks ago when I started keeping track. What happens next is anyone's guess.
  10. it is easy to read the available information and create a bias one way or the other... my "stats" from this morning could seem to represent a situation that is swinging rapidly towards the buyer with significant price falls inevitable (i.e. plenty of new/reduced listings and almost no sales...)On the other hand, your impressions and my firsthand experience suggests that there is a significant trickle of houses continuing to sell at "peak bubble minus no more than about 10%" which is obviously completely mental...! It is hard to argue with the mating call of the Greater Spotted Estate Agent that "decent family homes in the right locations are still selling"... This one this afternoon is the latest dagger through my heart.... I viewed it and know that it has gone for asking price or close to. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-29135833.html I viewed another house today and the agent's parting shot was that there was a bit of room for negotiation on the price... I'm sure he meant that something like 96% of asking price would have a chance - whoopee-doo...!
  11. Extending the above a little... BN21 + 1 mile, £325K-£800K, past 14 days shows 23 new/reduced houses and still not one sale BN21 + 5 miles, £325K-£800K, past 14 days shows 38 new/reduced houses and just the one sale mentioned above (for Healy Partnership) - so not a great fortnight for the Eastbourne EAs... is this the start of something or just another false dawn?
  12. Thanks. It is a horrible moment (all too familiar unfortunately during the past 2 years) when something sells at a price you can't quite believe and just when you had started to think things were going your way... The daily and obsessional analysis obviously makes it very hard to see the wood for the trees, but I can't resist it... Today, the bad news is this one selling so quickly (presumably snapped up for asking price...) http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-18047301.html while the good news is that the most relevant search for me (BN21 + 1 mile, £425K-£500K, past 14 days) shows 10 new/reduced houses and not one sale... if that trend continued then we'd be fine... ps Anyone know what happened to the "Overpriced Box" at the top of this page...?
  13. Which house? The problem with my bellwethers is that they keep selling... I looked at a house today and it was mixed news really. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32527124.html Very nice house but a busy/noisy location. Last sold in March 2004 for £360K. Calculated Q4 2010 Nationwide (outer South East) price brings it up to around £400K. I guess they've genuinely "added" somewhere around £40K with improvements so a "fair" price comes to perhaps £445K (which is what I hoped it might sell for...). Have to agree with EA, however, that, at the moment, it probably will fetch more like £480K... so things are still a bit nuts. There has been a definite slide of prices over the past few months but it genuinely seems to be only by a few percent rather than "falling off a cliff".... I guess we just have to accept that houses will keep selling at roughly these prices and that the trend down is currently slow. I'd love the pace to pick up to what we know is possible (1-2% a month : 15-20% in a year) but it isn't quite happening yet... will it be "next month" or will it still be "next month" next month or will it be "wait til the Autumn"...? Grateful for small mercies I guess that at least things have become a little bit more realistic and seem to be heading in the right direction. KTF
  14. Agree very much with this... it does seem that the pace is finally starting to gather but at the same time prices are still largely completely mental. Prices are still being set roughly where they have been since 2007. There are still a few people rich (easy come equity) and stupid enough to pay these prices. However, increased supply and the penny finally dropping for the masses do look like they are now starting to combine and force prices down as the majority of buyers can't or won't pay. I can't quite work out exactly what it means but at the moment my broader search is showing something like 60 houses coming on as new/reduced in the last 3 days and only 1 being sold during the same period...!
  15. Yes, no question that there are more coming onto the market than are being sold at the moment. I was disappointed to see this one go under offer today though, will be interesting to see what % of asking price was paid in the end... http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-23989597.html Have been to look at this one http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-29135833.html Nice house. To get a reasonable deal in light of where prices are headed I'd want to get it for no more than £420K and I don't think we are at the stage where that sort of deal is possible yet.
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