rantnrave
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Posts posted by rantnrave
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Rachel Reeves regularly touts her time serving with the Bank of England - that most trusted, insightful national economic authority
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6 minutes ago, wighty said:
So much overpriced crap that'll not get viewings let alone being sold. These will just be taken off the market just leaving the desperate and forced sales.
Yep - of four houses I've been monitoring since Feb, two still haven't sold and the other two are 'unexpectedly back on the market'.
For giggles, I also check the one that's been on the market the longest, which two weeks ago finally had a price cut after 15 months
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23 minutes ago, scottbeard said:
-2.6% is very definitely a decline in price
£8k off the average sold price - probably the best part of year's rent
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39 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:
That’s the honest assessment. It won’t be long before YoY plateaus too. This is not a falling trend with the odd positive blip, this is a stagnating trend. This does not feel like the 90s crash, or even the less dramatic 2008-2011 drop. There is so little slack in the system in terms of supply that unless we have the mother of all recessions, this trend will continue for a year or so before prices take off again unless there are radical events/reform.
There is a lag in this data - this update from Halifax will be for mortgages agreed on average about seven weeks ago - ie before much of the recent mortgage rate rises has filtered through.
Your analysis therefore accurately captures the state of the housing market at around the time of the King's coronation.
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7 minutes ago, Stewy said:
0.1% 😆
The crash is on 😆
With wages growing at 6 to 7% a year and house prices down 2.6% a year, I would say we are on the cusp of moving from correction territory to outright crash.
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We have surpassed rates from the Truss era now I beleive?
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More from the Guardian:
The average price of new build property prices rose by 1.9% in the year to June – stronger than the wider market, but the slowest rate in over three years.
Existing properties, Halifax says “were instrumental in driving prices up during the pandemic related housing rush”, were down by -3.5% year-on-year in June. That was the steepest decline since August 2009.
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From the Guardian
UK house prices fell at the fastest annual pace since June 2011 last month, Halifax reports this morning, as interest rate rises cool the market.
The latest healthcheck on the UK housing market found that the average price of a home sold in June fell by 2.6% year-on-year, the largest drop in 12 years on Halifax’s index.
That follows a 1.1% fall in the year to May.
On a monthly basis, prices dipped by 0.1%, taking the average price to £285,932.
Kim Kinnaird, director at Halifax Mortgages, says:
With very little movement in house prices over recent months, this rate of decline largely reflects the impact of historically high house prices last summer – annual growth peaked at +12.5% in June 2022 – supported by the temporary Stamp Duty cut.
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Average house price fell by -0.1% in June, a third consecutive monthly decline
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Annual rate of house price growth fell to -2.6%, from -1.1% in May
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Typical UK property now costs £285,932 (vs peak of £293,992 last August)
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New build prices more resilient compared to existing homes
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Southern England sees most downward pressure on property prices
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Quarterly Update is now out...
With all the usual caveats, a real terms crash is currently well underway:
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41 minutes ago, fellow said:
Fixed rate cash ISA are shooting up for all periods. Banks don't seem to be expecting rates to fall any time soon.
In a word (or two): Quantitative Tightening
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Coventry 4x easy access per year to pay 4.5% from July 7th
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Wage growth allegedly running at 6.5% a year and house prices falling at 3.5%...
I consider that a double digit percentage decline in real house prices.
Isn't Nationwide's quarterly update at the end of Q2 as well? That includes an update on real prices.
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11 hours ago, frederico said:
Lol +0.2% or something got to keep the lie going for as long as possible
Probably a bit closer to the mark to be fair...
There was definitely a post-Lizzy-budget-fiasco bounce in the first four months of the year.
That's over now though mortgage rates are back to where they were then. Expect that to be reflected in the Halifax and Nationwide indices by August at the latest.
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10 hours ago, rantnrave said:
7 to 8 week lag on this, so data from early May. Could well be up, or a small fall. Can't see a bigger drop than -0.4%.
The winner?
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7 to 8 week lag on this, so data from early May. Could well be up, or a small fall. Can't see a bigger drop than -0.4%.
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6 minutes ago, Blobsy said:
In contrast, this is the technology James Cameron uses to explore the Titanic wreck, and the results that can be achieved...
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28 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:
Thresher imploded in 1/20 of a second at about 1/8 of the depth of the Titanic. It would have been too fast to perceive let alone process. Also the air would be super heated by the instant, unimaginably enormous pressure change before it had time to evacuate.
Finding and exploring Scorpion and Thresher were the real reasons behind the voyage that discovered the Titanic wreck
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Five more souls join the hundreds of others on that sea bed.
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Reports incoming of debris found on the sea bed
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7 minutes ago, Orb said:
They could be quite creative, I mean, they could start giving potholes listed status, so they'll never need to be touched. There's loads of ways to save money if you think about it.
Our local council has found an innovate solution to the lack of funding for leisure centres - they're leaving the potholes untouched until they become swimming pools...
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Silvana Tenreyro's last MPC meeting I believe...
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4 hours ago, Blobsy said:
Fascinating listening if you have the time.
Due to the water tight compartments buying time, the lifeboats were seen as a way of ferrying passengers to and from a rescuing ship, hence no need to have enough for all souls at once.
Boxhall's testimony doesn't stack up when compared with the other less senior crew on the bridge at the time of impact. Lots of inconsistencies.
Lightholler admits in his autobiography that his answers at the official inquiries afterwards were part of a whitewash. Most likely he was trying to preserve his career with the White Star Line, although they never made him a captain after the Titanic disaster. Lightholler also applied Captain's Smith instructions to get the women and children into the lifeboats as to mean 'only' the women and children. As a result, he allowed many half empty lifeboats to leave. In contrast, First Officer Murdoch on the other side of the ship permitted men in the lifeboats when there were no more women and children around. Lightholler later claimed that he believed the lifeboats would buckle if fully loaded prior to launch and that he planned to open a lower door in the vessel to load more passengers into the boats from closer to sea level. The crew he dispatched for this task were never seen again. They did get the door open though - it's still open on the wreck today, and that extra hole in the ship's side was larger than the total damage caused by the iceberg. Lightholler therefore contributed significantly to the death toll by lowering half empty lifeboats and speeding up the vessel's demise. He redeemed himself in the Dunkirk evacuation where the number of British soldiers he brought back massively exceeded the safe capacity of his private yacht - which I believe can still be seen in Ramsgate.
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So, in order to prevent imported inflation, it seems that UK base rates need to be above US rates... If only the historical data had shown that to the BoE
The Gilts Thread
in House prices and the economy
Posted
Nah - there are still Brits playing in Wimbledon