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pl1

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Posts posted by pl1

  1. The Boe says 'yes' to QE but without saying how far they're go to go or for how long. Therefore, how can it be priced in? Everything is far too open ended, everything to vague....

    If the Boe came out and said that they will buy x amount of gilts as one off then this can be priced in but I'm afraid that we might get in to a situation we expect to have the the falls of last week plus a little bit extra thrown in for luck. Zimbabwe less a few zeros. The only confidence we will have is to see further falls, naturally with dead cats in between.

    Because Sterling has absolutely tanked in the last few months, if that's not pricing in I don't know what is.

  2. This is what people don't get. The ones on here keep saying the BoE is trying to screw the savers by cutting

    interest rates, well, they're not. They're trying to push down the interbank rate so the borrowers recapitalise

    the banks. 52% of all UK mortgage holders are on a fixed rate above 5%. All UK banks borrow the majority

    of their mortgage money on the 3 month interbank market. They have to refinance the money every 3 months.

    So, when all the fixed rates were taken out the interbank rate may have been 4.75% and they were lending it

    to the mortgage holders at say 5.25%, all those mortgage holders are still paying 5.25% but the banks will be

    lending that money at today's interbank rate. I don't know what it is, but let's say 3%. As you can see, it's

    not about screwing the savers it's about getting the interbank rate down and forcing the borrowers to recapitalise

    the banks extortionate margins. This with personal loans at 10% and credit cards at 15% will go a long way

    to screwing the borrowers into digging the banks out of the big hole they made for themselves while their house

    prices continued to crash for the forseeable future. With loan to values at around 65%, most banks are pricing

    in 30% more falls in house prices over the coming years.

    A few months ago many savers were getting hundred's of pounds a month in interest on their savings, now they're getting next to nothing. Sounds like being screwed to me and a side-effect to the BOE.

  3. Tabloid newspapers make a living from appealing to the majority.

    The majority of people own property.

    The majority of people want house prices to rise.

    The majority of people get their choice in to power at election time.

    Seeing a pattern here?

    I prefer the **** explanation.

  4. Does anyobody actually know why The Daily Express is such a Vested Interest for HPI? Do they have financial holdings in Building Companies or are they just full of BTL landlords or is it more mundane and they are just all frustrated homeowners? I'd be interested to know.

  5. Very sorry if this has been mentioned before; I know how annoying it is to see duplicate threads. It's good to see the title of this section of the forum changed - at last we can post our ideas on the economy and not have somebody asking it to be moved to OT. IMO the discussion is one of the best resources around - better than any government think-tank, and I'm damn sure, as has been said before, that key figures pop in to gather information (papers, peston etc ;) ).

    Good change! :)

    I just spotted that too. Then just spotted your thread.

    I second the motion!

  6. Below is a link to Harry Markopolos letter to the SEC telling them why he thought Madoff was a Fraud. haven't seen it anywhere else on the forum and think it's more appropriate here.

    Good read and understandable for most part, even by idiots like me.

    http://online.wsj.com/documents/Madoff_SECdocs_20081217.pdf

    I read that a couple of week's ago and it's absolutely staggering nobody picked up on it back in 2005. It's an unbelievable read.

  7. No not around here (Sussex) it isn't. Took my usual glance into EA windows on Saturday morning, not one customer in them. When picking up the property paper from one I asked how business was and they said "still fairly quiet". Three houses I've been keeping my eye on for last six months have fallen in price very recently. One by £15k. It's been on the market for months. Have only seen one Under Offer sign on my travels. Lots of For Sale though.

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