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Chuffy Chuffnell

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Posts posted by Chuffy Chuffnell

    Vat To Be Cut To 15%

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    what will the implications for RPI ? Lower VAT will keep wage inflation down as many pay deals are linked to RPI.

    Hello deflation

    Yup that was actually my first thought when I heard that VAT was coming down... inflation will come down and the measure will therefore only fuel deflationary tendencies. And it won't stop the recession!

    Are The Tin-foil-hatters Right?

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    Hmm, let's see. Share prices to collapse further, currencies swinging about all over the place (pound utterly destitute), the United States' NIA release report stating that the world is entering a dangerous and critical era, a government (and political class) in denial and disarray, deflation starting in the US and soon here in the UK, public debt soaring (while it can), private debt soon to be mandatory under nationalised banking system, China entering a period of uncertainty and economic turmoil, piracy threatening world trade, oil and other commodities crashing in value... essentially a complete disorientation in the value of currencies, commodities, debts, assets, etc... yep, it's going to be bad.

    The Monday pre-budget report will be, um, interesting. Increase in defence spending on the cards?

    This Week

    in Anecdotals

    Posted

    Went to ASDA today - there does seem to be rather a lot of price reductions and special offers! My shopping bill was reduced. The supermarkets will lead the way into deflation...

    Deflation

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted · Edited by Mr Deflation

    The finances of Britain, its government, its businesses and its residents will be totally different in 2012 compared to 2007. We are at beginning of the change. I have a feeling that in the long run there will be good from it, though it depends on how much influence non-Western states have in the new global system (this is a major battle occurring now behind the scenes). In the short term, there's going to be a lot of pain, especially for those who have enjoyed cheep credit, employed by nonsense sectors of the economy and an endless, ridiculous increase in asset prices. Roll on deflation, biflation and a general **** up in the (1990s/2000s) financial system.

    :P

    There Goes The £

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted · Edited by Mr Deflation

    Where did you open your Swiss account?

    I'm half British-half Swiss, with both citizenships. Half my family are in Switzerland (mother's side). The money is in a small cantonal bank. I'll bring it over here when a. the pound has reached its low of about 1.5CHF (was 2.5 only a year ago or so) and b. when I buy (with the money) a house here in England at the bottom of the crash in 2010 or so... ready for the next house price boom... ;) A good plan? Well, I think it is! :D

    There Goes The £

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted · Edited by Mr Deflation

    Why is this news to you, or any other deflationista? They are terrified of deflation, and rightly so. Bearish as I am on house prices, and with savings and no debt personally, I still think sustained deflation would be the worst outcome - it is catastrophic for the economy and would make what we are going through now look like a walk in the park. They will do anything up to and including printing of money nad get ready for some 'novel' interventions if that fails!

    I know they are terrified of deflation - of course they are, they're the ones in debt! Thankfully I'm not. Currently they are hoping that the falling pound and interest rate cuts will fend off deflation... but what happens if it doesn't? Then the shit will hit the fan.

    The printing of money would mainly be to actually pay for government outgoings in the event that gilts and such were no longer bought (£110bn per year is double what it was a year earlier and could well go higher into 2010). Yes it would be an inflationary thing to do, but my amazement is that the government of the United Kingdom in the year 2009 would have to resort to printing money to pay for things... geez. Well done Gordon.

    There Goes The £

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted · Edited by Mr Deflation

    so where do you stand, in the great 'flation debate? :rolleyes:

    I believe we're heading for deflation, which is incredible considering the collapsing pound and interest rates. Essentially we're in for a mess (well, an even bigger one than now!) and could end up being like Japan..!

    But the idea that the BoE would print money to pay for government spending if and when investors no longer buy government securities, etc. Well, wow! :blink:

    There Goes The £

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    Never thought of it that way! :lol:

    ED: Here's the article back again, well worth a read: Abandon all hope once you enter deflation

    "The Bank of England has not run out of ammo yet. It can cut rates to zero if necessary and then escalate to direct infusions of money by purchasing bonds – or indeed by buying a vast range of securities, assets and even houses if necessary. Ultimately it can print money to cover the budget deficit."

    Oh deary me, what are we leading into!! :unsure:

    There Goes The £

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    Strategy is working well, says Mervyn King as he predicts deep, long recession

    http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5142506.ece

    "Detractors point out that only three months ago the Bank was predicting only one or two quarters of modest decline in the economy, but its main view now is for GDP to plunge by between 1.5 and 2 per cent next year, in the most vicious slump seen since the depths of the 1980s recession.

    The scale of the change in the Bank’s analysis is emphasised not only by last week’s 1.5 percentage point cut in interest rates to 3 per cent, the lowest for half a century, but also by its indications that it is poised to cut rates further. Mr King conceded that the scaling-back of the Bank’s forecasts for inflation yesterday was the largest in the MPC’s 11-year history.

    Economists said the Bank’s expectation that inflation will plunge below 1 per cent by 2010 suggested that interest rates could be cut by another percentage point by Christmas, to 2 per cent, and fall to 1 per cent next year."

    With interest rates down to just above 0%, deflation by the spring and a ballooning government deficit... it's quite a mess. And the falling pound only adds to bizarre situation the UK is finding itself in. I still can't get my head around a falling pound, deflation, spiralling debt and near-zero interest rates!

    Time for the BoE theme tune again!

    http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtA7sshtQZk

    :blink:

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