Mr_Nice
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Posts posted by Mr_Nice
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I've written up the news that Kuwait's oil reserves could be much lower than officially stated. This has huge ramifications for the whole of OPEC and therefore the world. I can't beleive the number one news story today is the whale in London.
I don't doubt the story but does anyone understand their motive. Surely, they would benefit from promoting that oil is scarce and thus push the price up?
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Actually, I'm not a landlord. I'm just trying to give a balanced and fair view. As a homeowner I have no vested interest either way (unlike you, perhaps?)
In my view everyone has a vested interest as the rental and owner markets are very much interelated.
'Scumbag' is a very emotive term for someone attempting to give a balanced and fair view.
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Why will it increase rents?
BTW I agree tax evasion is wrong.
Re rents, I don't know whether this will be an affect. However, if the forced tax declaration reduces incentives to be a BTL then supply may decrease and rents may increase.
As before, i see this a positive as this puts more property back onto the market and increases owner occupiers.
Many who protect their deposits in this way are not scumbags. Many people can tell by repairs undone, calls unanswered, general vibe, if their landlord is scum or not.
If the Law is totally absent on helping renters secure their deposit of course people are going to resort to their own moral code - or 'law of the jungle' to be less charitible - to protect themselves.
This law sounds like it will help the problem. Who's going to not pay their last month's rent if they know their deposit return will be handled fairly by a third party?
Agreed. If the tennant has done genuine damage than the landlord has all their details and can pursue the matter through legal channels, not through confiscation which amounts to no more than summary justice.
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I think 'thief' is more accurate than 'fool'
Oh dear. This really is a touchy subject for you.
However, being emotive about an 'investment' is sure to get you no where. If you suspect theft i would report it to the police. They are bound to be more sympathetic to your rants than this board.
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scumbag renters
BTL causing you grief? Its a shame when BTLTers end up actually being forced to work for a living. With your temperament i would not consider BTL for a profession. BTLers with a bad attitude can end up with polyfilla in their plumbing.
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BTW
My mother just rented out one of her flats to a Latvian, he said he liked the place because there were jobs.
Big place your mum's flat. Whole microeconomy with jobs and social system. Is it an anarcho-syndicalist-commune or moderated meritocracy?
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The real reason for this change is not to protect tenants but rather to create a convenient central list for the IRS to identify landlords and tax them.
I am all for this. Granted this could increase rents but if so it will increase supply of property for sale as BTL become an even less attractive proposition.
I suspect you may see a change where landlords don't require a deposit. In any case anyone who pays the last months rent is a fool.
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Higher unemployment is great for house prices as it means lower interest rates.
In fact, in an ideal scenerio everyone would be unemployed, interest rates would be zero and house prices could rise forever! amen
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Thanks for those references. How independent are they though? Have they not got a vested interest in ramping the price of gold?
Yes, they do have vested interests but their news blog compiles global articles and often has bearish pieces.
What they will give you is insight into the rationale of a 'gold bug'.
If having done your research you are interested in exposure to commodities including gold, oil etc then FTSE:REI is a good bet (One of DR.B spots) they give you a broad global and sector diversity and are still trading at a big discount to NAV.
Off skiing now for a week!
Good luck.
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Thanks for your reply. I don't understand the 30% figure. Where does this come from? Why do you think gold will never drop below £200. This surely does not also apply to gold shares? It would be possible to lose it all on them, would it not?
Yes, with Gold shares as with any share the company can go bankrupt.
The reason that I suggest 30% is that many mining companies produce gold at c400$ per ounce. There is a proven and growing demand for physical so even if the speculative market collapsed then supply/demand would dictate a minimum of $400. Otherwise supply would dry up.
Of course, i don't see $400 or £200 gold. Try kitco, 321gold and there is a mass of commentary and resource there. Make your own choice.
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DrB
Will you be selling the Dow? I am reluctant.
Also I am still long on Japan, do you think that will this drag all markets bar commodoties down?
Cheers
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Good point. Are you saying that currently there is nothing worth investing in?
Holding cash still carries a risk, esp GBP.
How about gold(Come on Bubb, enter the debate!), is there still some way to go, or has the risk premium become too great?
The max risk in gold is 30% of your capital. IMO there is no way that gold will ever be below $400/£200 again.
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Investors have been banking on capital growth as rents are no longer delivering the 10% yield traditionally required to justify BTL. There are no doubt many landlords who are now sitting pretty after buying before 2001 but the capital growth that as fueled the party for so long is now gone and they are now facing year on year erosion of their leveraged portfolios.
After the initial six month agreement rents may indeed be increased at just two months notice but this should be balanced against the cost of possible void periods and risks associated with taking on new tenants. Sterling Gold has increased 20% since August and may be sold same day, it will take months to sell and realise the paper capital growth in BTL portfolios.
Gold is a limited resource, if all of the gold ever mined were put into a cube it would fit under the Eiffel tower, and unlike paper money it can't simply be created by governments printing more or banks generating electronic money through debt as they lend up to ten times more cash than they have received in customers deposit accounts. The increase in gold says much more about the devaluation of western currencies than change in the value of physical gold. Ten years ago average salary could buy 30% of a house now it will only buy around 15% yet the public think HPI is a good thing
total above earth gold around 140,000 tonsAgreed. I fear though that you are wasting your breath explaining it to TTRTR. He does'nt understand that he can't put his rents up EACH week to compensate for the davaluing £ whereas Gold et al is rising each week. He will only understand fiat currencies when he suddenly realises he is a relative pauper.
To illustrate the scarcity of gold I have a stake equivalent to the 'fair share' of all of the employees of my company (500). And that assumes central banks holding none at all. If that were taken into account I would probably have the equivalent of 1000 people i.e owning a village.
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Why would I do that?
Remember that the benefit of a rent rise is split between the landlord & the bank as 100/0.
Mmmm, property....I love it.....
I will (have) regretted getting into a one on one with you. Its like me trying to explain to my ex that a thousand pound Chloe handbag is not an investment..
She ignored me too!
I bow to your superior wisdom
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Funny that you ask. I raised a rent this evening & got an immediate acceptance from the tenants, funny what that can do to the value of property......
What very good timing. Maybe you can sinc all your rents with the TSX, HUI, XAU
Bon chance.
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Hi all,
Can anyone out there tell me what their views on Gold as a 'safe' investment are?? Would anyone put house sale proceeds into it..like, you know...'til a good time to buy again??? Just wondered! Be appreciated. Is it that simple??
Gold is freakin great. As is uranium, silver, molyb.... The long term argument for house bulls has been 'there is only so much land' well you can keep building upwards so housing is unlimited but you sure cant invent gold.
I do have rosey glow this week as MAW, NDM, REI, NEV, JIN and physical have been good to me this week
You can't live in it, you can't eat it, you have to pay to store it, it isn't useful to you, people can discover more of it & undermine the value of yours, you don't earn any interest from storing it, the list goes on & on.....not to mention that it can be stolen from you.
Yawwwwwwwwwwwnnn. I guess your house portfolio is up 8% THIS WEEK. No? Feeling tetchy?
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Too right.
D
EXACTLY! What really f*cks me off is when my parents complain about Tories when they were lucky enough to have them running the country when they were working and bringing up a family.
Yes things are better under labour. If you're
a. retired
b. public sector
c. a minority/immigrant
but fack anyone who actually works for a living
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Essentially as this is the first time they come onto the 2nd hand market, if you factor in the massive "buying from new" premium, we are seeing major falls here...bring it on.
Ril, this isn't you price range is it....?
You have that the wrong way round. If there is a "buying from new" premium them the actual price new was inflated so the original price should have been lower hence the inflation is higher.
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http://www.321gold.com/editorials/shedlock...lock123105.html
A brilliant article. Enjoy!
some nice snippets
Try this exercise: Walk into any car dealership and tell them you can not afford to buy a new car. They will find a way to make it "affordable" by stretching out the payments from 3 to 5 to even 7 years if they have to so that you can make the monthly payment. Does that really make it affordable?
Also let's not confuse affordability with value. Ownership costs vs. rental costs are at staggeringly high ratios in many areas. Can the average person really "afford" to pay 30-50% too much for a house or condo? That's how overpriced some areas are on a cost to rent basis. Can you afford to lose $100,000 on that $400,000 condo if the price drops next year? Somehow that question is not being asked.
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Sorry Imupnorth, I promise you its true, via the relation of an MPC member. Imupmidlands so you can trust me.
The GMC can strike me off if I'm telling a porky. My numbers [ Removed by Moderator ]. Feel free to report me.
As for the vasectomy can I offer you an orchidectomy instead? Only joking.
Happy Christmas and new year (sorry I orignally forgot my manners).
And by the way, I agree it seems counter intuitive. But I probably don't have the figures that the BOE does.
For it to be true you would need to be related to all nine members.
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Agreed. If you have bought an inner city apartment to get you "on the bottom rung of the ladder" with the hope of being able to trade up in future, think again.
This is why this is bound to have a knock on effect on the whole housing market. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
The bottom is literally falling out of the market.
It happened in 1990 and is happening again now.
Agreed. And "Everyone is looking at their lending criteria now."
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Dont get too hung up on the physical price. Mawson resources one of the good doctors tips is up 33% today. I got in at 66$ and sold out 2000 today at $136 to get my money back and its a free ride from here on in.
The miners strength is telling me that the market know the real strength in precious metals.
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Call me Mr. Thickey but why would lowering IRs cause the Pound or the Dollar to tank - simply because foreign investors will go and seek better IRs elsewhere? Or is it more complicated than that?
Mr Thickey.
This site explains it nicely
http://www.bized.ac.uk/learn/economics/gov...hange/index.htm
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Looks like Gordon Brown has achieved his objective with 100% success. By luring builders into building thousands of flats which no one wants to buy in the post-Sipps era he has given the market place what it needs--a glut of affordable housing (when the HPC brings the prices down to affordable levels).
Gordon may be a lot wiser than we on HPC have been giving him credit for!
I have considerd this before too. Is he so deceitful that all along he has been enginering the rich and foolish into paying for the next generation of social houdsing.
But i just don't think he is that bright.
Private Landlords To Lose Control
in House prices and the economy
Posted
No. "And so should scumbag renters who hold back on their last month's rent when they leave"
As before. It only shows the weakness of your argument when you revert to this approach.