pepto

Just bringing this one back to life...the housing market here in Brisbane is going absolutely insane, likely 10% increases over a 6 month period in some suburbs within 10km of the city. I bought in September but I have friends now looking to buy and are struggling. Look at this place about 8km from the city for approx. 530k GBP. Basically a 2 bedroom shack with asbestos walls and ceilings. And you have to remember that Brisbane isn't a 'big' city with a lot going on...it's crazy. https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-tarragindi-136140586 Still a long way behind Sydney and Melbourne but we are catching up...one reason is that people are moving up here from the southern cities and dropping 75-100k GBP more than asking price as this is still reasonable compared to the market they are coming from.

Just to bring this one back from the dead... I was really close to buying a place here in Oz recently. Signed a contract in early March before the corona virus seemed to be a major global issue and then pulled the plug 2 weeks later on the finance clause. I managed to get a 2.19% fixed mortgage for 3 years but would have been spending 28% of take home salary on the mortgage (30 years!) and worst case scenario would have had less than 10k pounds in the bank as a cusion if things went FUBAR. In the end the uncertainty caused me to back out...the market is at an all time high and undoubtedly falls are coming. I have been on this forum since the mid 2000's and have always been a housing bear, but I came within a hair of buying and stretching myself further than my comfort zone. Glad that I had the guts to pull out at the last moment and I look forward to seeing some serious discounts towards the end of the year.

Not sure about them being Chinese but we are certainly seeing a bit of mini boom in the Brisbane suburbs that I am looking at (mostly within 10kms North or West of the CBD). Lots of houses selling in less than a week for $25-50k over the asking price and the feedback from the agents is that while there are a lot of families trying to buy at this lower 'entry level price' of around AUD700k/ GBP 390k (which seems unbelievable for a city the size of Brisbane...how did we ever get here?) investors are now flooding back into the market because the cash rate is so low they are better off putting their money into a house and betting on some growth there. I don't normally believe a word that agents are saying but I have been keeping an eye in these markets for nearly a year now and track asking and selling prices and I am definitely seeing prices go up...I guess as the RBA keep dropping the base rate we will continue to see this happening. Unless the economy completely craps itself, unemployment goes up, consumer spending continues to drop and then who knows what will happen?

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/chinese-buyers-are-getting-ready-to-flock-back-into-australias-cheap-property-market-with-one-city-emerging-as-their-clear-favourite-2019-9 Apparently the devalued AUD is making Australian houses 11% cheaper for Chinese investors and so they are going to flock back into the market. I think that this is a bit hyperbolic...certainly in the business I work in I have seen Chinese companies really struggling to get cash out of the country.

Yep, I am in Brisbane and life is pretty good. My sister moved over to Sydney 3 years ago and loves it compared to London. She rents in Double Bay, lives right by the beach and has been lucky to find a great job earning over GBP 60k. I think that when she gets a bit older and tries to settle down the realisation that she will only be able to afford to buy somewhere way out in the Western suburbs where life is a lot different and the commute to work will be hell. I think that this is likely the case for most families that move over from the UK...but for many the sunshine and swimming pool are enough to make it worthwhile. Not very fond of Sydney at all myself I found it to be a bit grotty and very over priced. Brisbane might be a bit quiet for some used to bigger cities but it has a beautiful CBD with loads of parks and pretty much everything you need as far as entertainment gies. As long as you can afford to live reasonably close then happy days!

I agree with all that you say here. To address your last paragraph, in my case, working as a supplier to the oil and gas industry my options in the UK were Aberdeen (no thanks, even grayer, wetter and depressing than Wales where I am from) or where I was based in London (way too expensive and we had to have 2 salaries to afford rent on a one bed flat in Ealing). Moving over here effectively doubled my salary and we have been able to start a family and live in a 3 bed house with an easy commute to the city. Lots of Brits have the same experiences in other industries but whereas I feel quite stable in my job (at least for the next 10-20 years) because Australia actually has a gas shortage for domestic usage, those who come over as plumbers, electricians, builders etc. will really be up a creek with no paddle as construction continues to wane.

And here is more bad news for the economy...0% inflation. Increased the risk of a rate cut now? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-24/inflation-rate-of-zero-not-as-good-as-it-sounds/11043100

Happy Easter all. Just an update from my side about the house I was trying to buy. After the property had been in the market for 6 months I made an offer $50k below the new 'discounted' asking price and was refused. Over the next month I gradually increased up to my maximum of $20k higher than that and had had the agent calling me every day trying to squeeze me a bit more. I held tight and after checking today I can see that the property has been taken off the market. Things are still falling here in Brisbane and I feel that even though nice houses in extremely sought after areas are still selling quickly and at high prices buyers now have a lot more choice and any houses with slight issues are hanging around a lot longer. I asked the bank to check if their valuation report had changed at all for the property I was looking at (as the original report was more than the new revised asking price) and they dropped it by $40k...this is over 3 months or so. Interesting to see where we go from here with the election coming up soon.

Yes, it is very expensive over here. I would say that other than housing the general cost of living is similar to London. Also right about the commute...most Aussie's don't want to live so near the city, want a large block of land with lots of outdoor space and a pool etc. and don't mind travelling for an hour to get to work. They are quite happy to live their mundane lifestyle in their own back yard with trips to Bunnings (think B&Q) and the nearest Westfield shopping mall for their weekly (non) cultural fix and social interaction. Brisbane is actually a very beautiful city and if you can afford to live within say 10km of the CBD there are lots of pretty suburbs with a bit of a neighbourhood feel to them and with decent public transport. The key is that you need to be close to the city to get anything like this and even though prices here are cheaper than Sydney and Melbourne you still don't get a lot for your money. I lucked out when I cam over here and more than doubled my salary and so am doing alright. I know a few other couples where only 1 is working though and it seems that if the household income is less than AUD 100k (GBP 55k) then things can get very tight...just like London.

I now have pre approval for the mortgage and the estate agent hasn't had any offers in the last 6 weeks...but it seems that the Australian economy is imploding at a faster and faster rate. I mean even with all the Brexit madness going on the pound is still at a 12 month high because everyday there is more shit news about the economy. With that said we have been online looking at houses and have been to see about 6 other places in the last 2 weeks and everything in our price range is absolutely terrible. Even though I have been waiting for this moment for so long I don't think we can wait any longer and I am going to make a lowball offer to start. I have my upper limit but will not even allow myself to get that high. If they balk at the low offer I will go a little higher but will have to have the will to walk away and not get carried away.

Been with the same company for 8 years (3 years in the UK and now 5 years over here). We are a major supplier to the oil and gas industry and I am the most senior sales person at the moment with possibilities to become management in the next 5-10 years. The industry is looking good and we are in a strong position so I feel relatively secure. Salary is very good too and I get an annual bonus on top of that. I know what you mean about jobs though, my wife hasn't worked since we left the UK (we have had 2 kids in that time) but I think that the search will be hard. We were in Adelaide for a few years and that is even worse for jobs...

Population growth? Inner Brisbane population has grown by 2% a year since then and the majority of new housing would have been apartments near the city and townhouses. Well, nothing over here seems like fair value, I cannot imagine how it is in Sydney. I initially set a max budget of $550k but then found that we would need to be 25km out of the city and have a very long commute.

Yes, it is a pity but Brisbane hasn't seen anywhere near the price increases that Sydney an Melbourne have and so falls would be less- Plus, the asking price is 'only' 18% higher than what it sold for in Feb 2007 and so it has already fallen from peak. That is what I will keep telling myself as I make the offer anyway... Spent hours more looking online at different places today and after about a year of viewing houses this really is the only one that we like the layout of that is anywhere close to our price range.

This is the suburb data- https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/finding/location/suburb-data/4561-windsor-qld.html Average house price is around $800k...and would likely be free standing on a block of land at least double (400-600m2 vs 200 for the one I am looking at). None of the houses that I have seen selling recently under a million would have the internal space though. Initially she didn't want to buy anywhere because of how expensive things are but now she is fed up of renting and really wants to get our own place. This house will suit us for years, I would not likely sell it or move as it has plenty of space for us and the 2 kids, is in good school catchment areas and is a good short commute to work. I think I will put an offer in tomorrow subject to finance which should be sorted in a week or so. Fingers crossed!

I am in a bit of a bind at the moment...maybe some of the posters in this thread could chime in? Been reading on here from probably around 2007 and since then have moved from Japan back to London and then out to Adelaide and eventually up to Brisbane where we currently live. I have been waiting for 'the big one' for years and while prices are falling steadily in Sydney and Melbourne up here the market is more stagnant than anything. There are still lots of town houses around here being snapped up for $600-650k but we are seeing prices come down a bit and property on the market for longer. With all of the moving around we haven't had a chance to buy but now with my 40th birthday looming we are fed up of renting and really want to buy a place. We have found a semi-detached 2 story house on a small block that is less than 5km from the city and close to good transport links. It sold 12 years ago for $550k and the owner is now asking $650k...not such a big jump considering what has happened in the property market over here. Mortgage payments would be just a little more than we are paying in rent but our savings would pretty much be gone. We have found a place that isn't crazy expensive (for inner city Australia) that we really like (most places here have shocking floor plan and layout- master bedroom coming directly off the living room???) but I am worried that we are just at the start of significant falls as the Australian economy continues to weaken. My current lease is up in 2 months and I am reluctant to sign up for another year (and $30k in rent), but at the same time I am uneasy about taking out a big loan and having hardly any savings...something that seems the norm over here where everyone is leveraged to the hilt. I do have a relatively high paying job and the missus will be able to bring is a small income once the kids are in school in 3 years, helping us pay the house off in 20 years and allowing us to rebuild savings. What say you HPC? Finally time to buy or wait another year with the expectation of further falls but the issue of finding something that ticks all of our boxes?

https://amp.nine.com.au/article/bdb8952d-62b1-42fe-a8a0-2cf443596649 Once again everything in Australia is a bit different eh?

https://www.corelogic.com.au/auction-results Brisbane (36%) and Canberra (39%) are also surprisingly low.

I don't know so much about Perth but I have recently seen Origin and Santos continue to let people go in Brisbane and Adelaide even though the industry is now supposed to be back on the up. Back in the hey days pretty much everyone at Santos had a company credit card that they could charge $100 to a day without any need of receipts. They also took advantage of the company paying mobile phone bills by getting a package deal including internet and Foxtel and then claiming it all. Crazy days!

My work is related to oil and gas and things are picking up too, both in Brissie where I am and also in Perth and Adelaide. The industry is officially no longer in recovery mode and is now getting back to growth apparently. One of the guys from out Perth office recently went to the house of one of our customers, a senior engineer who is a bit of a go getter and has reached his position at just 35 years old. According to realestate.com.au the house sold 2 years ago for $2.8 million... I guess average annual salaries for these more senior guys is somewhere between $400-600k mark, the university graduates start on $150-170k. What is interesting though is that it doesn't seem to be having the same effect as in the past and Perth house prices aren't back on the up yet. https://www.perthnow.com.au/lifestyle/real-estate/perth-house-prices-still-in-decline-national-values-also-falling-ng-b88854018z

More bearish articles floating around...but the drops seen so far are still in the single digits. Hardly a crash, more like a small blip. https://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/why-this-house-price-slump-is-different-from-the-last-one-20180613-p4zl7u.html "ANZ Bank economist Daniel Gradwell says the last couple of dips in prices - such as around 2011 - were triggered by rising or already "elevated" interest rates. That's not the case this time. The cost of debt is still extremely low - many home loan rates are less than 4 per cent. Instead, the main reason for the slump in prices appears to be the availability of credit. Mortgage brokers say banks are simply not willing to lend as much as they were a few years ago. Banks are more closely scrutinising how much money borrowers need to live on, and taking longer to approve loans." "UBS analyst Jonathan Mott has estimated that if banks assumed more realistic living expenses, the maximum amount they would lend customers would be about 30 to 40 per cent less than today. He says that would cause housing credit growth to come to a near standstill - which would be a dramatic change from today's 6 per cent growth rate. Both analysts don't view these sharp contractions as the most likely scenario, because regulators would probably try to avoid such a financial shock. We do know, however, that the royal commission into misconduct has put banks on high alert over their compliance with responsible lending laws. So it's fair to assume the banks will want take extra precautions for a while yet, which is likely to keep the housing market subdued." There has been a lot of fallout from the royal commission into the banks but it all seems to get swept under carpet, it is as if no one really cares to give it any mind at all and every big scandal that is revealed in the papers is all forgotten about within a week. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/20/banking-royal-commission-all-you-need-to-know-so-far

Generally we find groceries to be a bit on the expensive side compared to London, but very expensive compared to the small town where my parents live. I bough a single banana for my son to eat while we did our shopping on the weekend and it cost 45 cents, which is about 25p nowadays so not too expensive. Clothes and especially shoes are very expensive, but I generally find electronics such as phones, TV's etc to be cheaper. One shocker to me is the cost of dental...I recently was told that I need to have a root canal and crown on one of my back teeth and the cost is $3400!!! Even with my health insurance that I spend $350 a month on I will be $2500 out of pocket... I am lucky that I don't live is Sydney...even though I am complaining about house prices here it is much much more affordable than Sydney. The median house price in Brisbane is not far off 50% that of Sydney, I really don't know how people can make ends meet down there. A guy at work has family there (a husband who is a lawyer and wife who is a senior accountant) and he told me that mortgage payments on the 3 bedroom house they are living in would cost more than 50% of their take home pay...

Exactly, anything that is not permanently damaging the property does not even need to be noted and things that are should not be an issue as long as they are general wear and tear or can be covered by the deposit. We recently had a plumber come to fix a leak and leave a massive hole in the kitchen ceiling which doesn't seem to be a priority to the estate agent but I am sure come inspection time they will complain that we haven't cleaned the cooker sufficiently or something...

The fact that family are so far away is the only major negative about being here. Other than that, the housing problem and the high cost of living (and these are the same in London where we were in the UK before moving here anyway) pretty much everything is great.

I should add that this is another big factor in wanting to buy even though property is way over priced. I am fed up of having to ask the estate agent if I can put posters up in my kid's bedroom and then worrying about how much of my deposit they are going to take when we move out if there is a small mark. A few years ago we lived in a lovely old sandstone house in Adelaide in an area notorious for walls cracking over the years due to the clay soil that expands/ contracts over the seasons. We had cracks in the plaster all the way down the 5m living room wall which we had requested to be repaired but to no avail. When we moved out they tried to charge us for a mark that was left from one of those adhesive picture hooks!

With the continuous year on year grown that they have seen for what seems like 25 years everyone and their uncle has multiple investment properties (you thought buy to let was bad in the UK?) and so the system is set up in favour of the owner. I found that renting out a property here is kind of like going to tender...they usually wait until there have been a few offers and then evaluate and negotiate from there. It is not at all like what I experienced in the UK where generally the first person who makes an offer and can tick the boxes for paying the rent gets the property. Because the market has been tight and rents have been increasing for as long as most of the investment owners have been in the game they have a sense of entitlement about their property and we are quite often made to feel that this is their investment more than it is our home. I don't think it is as bad now but a few years ago we were seeing the rent increase by around 5-10% every time we wanted to sign a new 1 year lease. The biggest pain is that the lease mandates inspections of the property every 3 months. This would not be a problem if they were just taking a look to check we hadn't knocked a hole in the wall but the letters we get go into the level of detail that that all skirting boards and light switches must be dust free. We keep out place generally pretty clean and tidy (the missus is Japanese and so no shoes in the house etc) but it gets a bit ridiculous when you have to do a 'deep clean' every time the estate agent wants to come around. This is all in the Eastern states though, I have mates in Perth and I know that the marked dropped considerably there and they were able to negotiate rent down from $520/ week to $350. Just waiting for this to happen over here...