The McGlashan
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Posts posted by The McGlashan
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Yes, I am aware of that. The reason I query the time lag, is to see if theres a way to accurately compare RoS versus the other indices. In other words, are the other indices giving a remotely accurate snapshot picture for march or april. If not, why not do you think? And of course to see when the bounce actually occurred, versus when it was reported.
I'll leave such speculative comparisons to you. IMHO, trying to make any such comparison would be like trying to knit fog into a string vest. Very difficult, and the end result would, anyway, be full of holes.
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Yes, that may be it. Interesting stuff really, so much down to very local factors.
How laggy do you think RoS really is? I assume they log the date of sale as the day when it is all completed? Which can be 3-6 weeks after an offer is accepted? Does that gel with your thoughts?
So April sales data, released in June, would reflect offers made in March?
The beauty of the RoS figures, as opposed to all other indices which are published for the area, is that the data are comprehensive and not open to re-interpretation.
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Thanks for that McG, handy to have the comparisons all in one place.
Any thoughts on Dundee? I recall our affordable versus desirable conversation some time back. Quite interesting that it's not bouncing.
Nae bother. Monthly stats are, of course, quite noisy. You'll notice that Dundee showed a surprise surge in March, now cancelled out by the drop in April.
Dundee's not all bad, you know. A quick look at TSPC shows some nice tempting prospects in Broughty Ferry, for instance.
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April RoS monthly data shows big spring bounce in Edinburgh.
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_apr_09.pdf
+12% Month on Month (and +19% increase in volume)
-12% Year on Year (volume down -52%)
-15% from peak (jul 07) (-70% drop in volume)
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Graph updated with April RoS figures.
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_apr_09.pdf
Bounce underway in Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh. Particularly pronounced in Edinburgh. Dundee shows a sharp drop.
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RoS raw data for April out today - unsurprising spring bounce underway.
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_apr_09.pdf
Aberdeen City average price = £151,491
Month-on-month change = +2% (and +12% volume)
Year-on-year change = -10% (and a -54% drop in volume)
Change from peak (July 07) = -18% (and a -67% drop in volume)
Aberdeenshire average price = £178,486
Month-on-month change = -1% no bounce yet (and +24% volume)
Year-on-year change = -6% (and a -46% drop in volume)
Change from peak (July 08) = -16% (and a -40% drop in volume)
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Interesting.
Cumbria is a big county, but not very heavily populated. Wikipedia reckons the population is 498,800.
Yesterday, in all of Cumbria, 1000 houses came on the market. That seems a lot to me.
Anyone else got any good examples of pent-up supply?
This, from the RICS. Sales to stock ratio at historic low.
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cold and sunny is my ideal
don't like hot weather
are the locals friendly - or is that a silly question?
Aberdeen has the lowest rainfall in UK. But it is cold - bring a sweater.
Inland - towards Alford and Braemar, the temperature soars in July, but the snow stays on the ground all winter.
The Moray Coast - Banff to Inverness has a very pleasant maritime micro-climate - it's like Cornwall without the crowds.
The locals are, em, taciturn. We say "thrawn".
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That's a fair few sellers for our small city. You are very good with the numbers and charts, so how does that fair with June 07 and 08? I would assume that June/July are considered annual peaks for buying as well.
On June 4 '07 Mr Gruff posted:
For sale : 1014Added in last week : 172 (16.9%)
Added in last month : 684 (67.5%)
Over a month : 330 (32.5%)
Don't know about 08...
What I do know is that the ratio of buyers to sellers is very much improved (from our point of view). There are many more sellers than buyers - the ratio is at a historic low.
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Now McGlashan, you have already admitted .....
*snip*
Ugh!
Hamish, I have picked you up several times before for misrepresentation, spin, headlining and the like, but I've never before seen you come out with a straight lie.
Why do you feel it necessary to lie?
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I bought a second property in Jan 07. Which for Aberdeen, and according to McGlashans figures, was almost 2 years before peak.
No that's not right, Registers of Scotland have the peak only 6 months after your purchase.
Fortunately, that property has done rather well for me so far, at least by comparison to the rest of the UK. Zoopla has it still valued at a good 15% more than I paid for it.Zoopla, you say.
Lets see:
For sale today, West End Aberdeen, granite-built terrace.
http://www-n.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/Liv...MPNFPNC#picture
Offers over 209k
On Zoopla
http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/72-beechg.../ab15-5ey/42219
Zoopla estimate 415k
Utter nonsense!
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Proper speculators buy at or near the bottom. When prices are cheap. Therefore don't join Hamish's speculators club because he reckons the bottom is here, yet houses aren't cheap.
Right you are. Indeed, speculators follow this model:
1. Buy Low
2. Sell High
Given that Hamish bought at peak in 2007, after having done so before in 1988, his model seems to be.
1. Buy High
2. Buy High
3. Em...
4. Get annoyed by those who want to buy low.
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Nothing immoral at all. Staggeringly hypocitical, but not immoral.
You bought cheap decades ago, and sold high near the peak of the housing bubble. Made lots of money through HPI.
For you to then take a moral high ground railing against HPI and anyone else who makes money off it, is hypocritical, but not immoral.
Common syndrome around here. Property speculators who shorted the market, trying to act morally superior to the property speculators in it for the long game.
I'm a FTB who decided to delay my house purchase. I will save (= make) lots of money through HPC. Can I join your speculators club?
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More anti-'slacker' ranting from Hamish the other day:
It annoys me that the feckless may now be able to buy a house, when they don't really deserve it. It annoys me that people who made poor choices in life, may now have the opportunity to catch up with those who were responsible.Workaholic Hamish is distressed that 'slackers' who work any less than he might be able to afford a house. His position is simply one of envy - he envies those who will benefit from more affordable housing. Remember, he not only bought at peak prices in 2007, he did it in 1988 too.
Having bought into the producer/consumer paradigm; having swallowed and regurgitated wholesale the catchphrases, jingles and slogans of the affluenza society; having worked so very hard (50+ hours/week) for so very long, he now surveys his devaluing property portfolio like the dog in the manger, furious and envious that the upcoming generation might have to work less hard for a shorter time to achieve a similar standard of 'having'.
The only 'good' that rising house prices would do Hamish would be to re-inforce his affluenza, validating his workaholism and enabling him to continue lording money over his relatives to control them - whilst simultaneously consolidating his position as increasingly insurmountable by future generations whom he wishes to see forced to struggle vainly to catch him up. Continually rising house prices would mean that they never can. This is what Hamish wants - a compliant, heavily-indebted and defeated workforce. He wants this outcome because that is what he is himself. The abused turns into the abuser.
God forfend that life should be for living and enjoying. Its for working! It's for servicing debt! So you can buy 'toys' that don't really satisfy, so you work harder so you can afford to service bigger debt and get 'better' toys that fail to satisfy proportionally.
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Got my ASPC property email this morning and had a quick look at the home report for the first property to see how the valuation compared with the asking price and what the surveyor said about the market. The offers over price and valuation were the same. The surveyor had this to say:
"The property market has been affected by the general downturn in the economy and in particular within the financial service sector. However the property market in the north east of Scotland at present appears to have not been affected to the same extent as other parts of the United Kingdom"
Here are a couple of my favourites:
"The local property market is slower at the present time with properties generally taking longer to sell"
This one's the best:
"In line with most of the country, the local property market has deteriorated over the last year and the
supply of property on the market now exceeds demand"
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Is the unremarkable uptick in approvals worth posting?
Not when we consider the ratio of sales to unsold housing stock, which remains at a historic low.
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However:
Even Bill Drummond admitted to some regret afterwards, so I understand.
And the people on here genuinely advocating this are frankly not in the same league as him with regards to either entertainment value or fruitcakieness.
Early (or late) contra-cyclic monetary tightening?
MPC = KLF?
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The sun is shining.
Bees bumble and bluetits browse insects on the bough.
Lawns succumb to the rise-and-fall flymo hum and strimmer thrum.
Flowering as the evenings stretch towards the solstice,
Sudden pretty girls show limbs to blue sky and lechers eye,
The mercury is rising and so is the sap.
The sun is shining.
I think I'll go to the bank, withdraw all my money and set fire to it.
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You should hope not. Or at least, you should hope the MSM don't figure out how bullish these numbers really are.
LR figures lag by several months. This month should have shown the large falls being reported a few months back in the haliwide figures.
Minus 0.3% is an amazingly good figure, and shows clearly that the actual sales prices going through a couple of months back were significantly higher than the Haliwides surveys reported.
This is very tasty bull fodder indeed.
Oh, hold on, I thought you said:
YoY is all that matter for owners.So here you go:
LR (England and Wales) = -16.2% YoY
Halifax = -17.7% YoY
Nationwide = -11.3% YoY
RoS (Scotland only) = -8% YoY
By your own stated preferred measure, until these figures approach zero, there is no recovery, and we are not near the bottom.
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Im not happy London is up. That is good new for Bulls for sure
Not really.
From page 4 of the report:
"April's data for London shows
an annual house price change
of -14.3 per cent, which shows
a small decrease in the speed
of price falls."
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Why the continued credence in the pontifications of the CEBR? A couple of rent-a-mouth business studies graduates with media and Tory contacts working out of a flat in Islington have no special insights.
Having said that, on the CEBR's own press release from whence the "only 8-10% more to fall" report came, we can read:
"Clearly these data represent the flimsiest of straws to clutch at
 for the overâ€optimistic estate agent..."
http://www.cebr.com/Resources/CEBR/Easter%...ng%20market.pdf
Not so much 'green shoots' as 'flimsy straws'.
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For sale on ASPC:
Today (1 June 2009)
For sale : 1176
Added in last week : 75 (6%)
Added in last month : 298 (25%)
Over a month : 878 (75%)
And for lease: 281
Added in last week: 26 (9%)
Added in last month: 116 (41%)
Over a month: 165 (59%)
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MP's should be means-tested
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Aberdeen, Aspc Stats
in House prices and the economy
Posted
Monthly figures are, by their nature, 'noisy', and one month's change does not make a trend. For instance, during the most pronounced bubble phase of the bull run in Aberdeen between May 2005 and July 2007, monthly data showed drops on 8 months out of 25. Triumphalism seems out of place on the basis of one month's figures.
Last year's 'spring/summer bounce' between March and September was negative at -3%. It is worth pointing out that this was before the banking crisis, before the onset of recession and before the steep rises in unemployment being experienced at the moment. Oil traded above $110 throughout the entire period.
So, if this year's 'spring/summer bounce' follows the trajectory of last year's, Aberdeen's average house price will be around £147k, or 22% down from peak by September.
On what do you base your expectation that this year's bounce will be any larger than last year's?